scholarly journals Interactions among Economic Ideas, Policies and Experience - The Establishment of Inflation Targeting in Canada, 1991-2001

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-165
Author(s):  
David Laidler
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Growth ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
The Stability

In Canada, targeting the inflation rate was intended as a temporary measure during a transition to price-level stability, but became a well-established monetary policy regime in its own right. This paper analyses the role of the interaction of economic ideas with the experience generated by their application to policy in bringing about this outcome. In the following account, changing beliefs about the stability or otherwise of ongoing inflation, the capacity of a flexible exchange rate to create a vicious circle of depreciation and rising domestic prices, are emphasised, while ideas about the natural unemployment rate and money growth in influencing economic outcomes are also discussed. Today’s standard theoretical approach to modelling inflation targeting arrived on the scene only as the Canadian regime was becoming well established.

An Evaluation of Monetary Targeting Regimes

2000 ◽  
Vol 174 ◽  
pp. 105-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Karen Dury
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Feedback Mechanisms ◽  
Policy Regimes ◽  
Monetary Targeting ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Monetary Policy Framework

The policy regime in Europe has put the economy on ‘auto-pilot’. We investigate different designs for the required feedback mechanisms. The uncertainty facing an economy depends on the pattern of shocks it faces, the response of the private sector to those shocks and also the policy reactions of the authorities. Two ‘ideal type’ policy regimes are investigated, and inflation targeting is compared to nominal aggregate targeting. In general it is suggested that targeting a nominal aggregate reduces the variability of the price level, and stabilises the price level more quickly over time. Inflation outcomes are also less variable for the Euro Area, and they are less asymmetric when a nominal aggregate is targeted. The new European fiscal framework requires that countries set deficit targets close to balance. We show that there is plenty of space for automatic stabilisers to work, but the room available depends in part on the monetary policy framework chosen.

scholarly journals "Does Inflation Targeting Framework Make a Significant Difference in Lowering Price Level?” What is Its Implication to Indonesia’s Inflation Rate?

2015 ◽  
Vol 61 (2) ◽  
pp. 131
Author(s):  
Faisal Rachman
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Difference In Difference ◽  
Public Expectation ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Monetary Policy Framework

AbstractIn the last two decades many countries have been starting to employ Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF) as their main monetary policy framework. This is done to achieve an objective of anchoring public expectation on inflation which in the end will steer the price level movement towards ITF’s ultimate target of relatively low and stable inflation rate. By conducting Difference-in-Difference method on panel data consisting of five countries implementing ITF since 2001 and twenty-one selected non-ITF countries for period 1990-2010, it is statistically proved that ITF adoption has a significant effect on inflation. In case of Indonesia, through Structural Break approach, the implementation of ITF since 2005 is also proved able to lower and stabilize inflation rate.Abstrak Dalam dua dekade terakhir ini banyak negara yang telah mulai menggunakan Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF) sebagai kerangka utama kebijakan moneter mereka. Hal ini dilakukan guna mencapai tujuan pengendalian ekspektasi publik yang pada akhirnya akan mengendalikan pergerakan tingkat harga relatif rendah and stabil. Dengan menggunakan metode Difference-in-Difference pada data panel, yang terdiri dari lima negara yang telah mengimplementasikan ITF sejak tahun 2001 dan dua puluh satu negara bukan pengguna ITF, untuk periode 1990-2010, disimpulkan bahwa ITF memiliki dampak signifikan pada tingkat inflasi. Untuk kasus Indonesia yang telah mengimplementasikan ITF sejak tahun 2005, melalui metode Structural Break disimpulkan hasil yang sama, yaitu tingkatan harga yang rendah dan stabil.

scholarly journals Adopting Inflation Targeting in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis

2010 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 51-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadia Saleem
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Policy Option ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Potential Candidate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Nominal Anchor

The objective of this paper is to assess the conditions for inflation targeting in Pakistan. The recent inflationary surge in Pakistan calls for rethinking monetary policy afresh. This paper argues the case for inflation targeting in Pakistan as a policy option to achieve price stability. The country experienced an inflation rate of just below 10 percent during 1970-2009, which makes it a potential candidate for inflation targeting. Applying the VAR technique to data for the same period, inflation is shown to be adaptive in nature, leading us to reject the accelerationist hypothesis. The Lucas critique holds as people are found to use forward-looking models in forming expectations about inflation. The paper also sheds some light on the State Bank of Pakistan’s level of preparedness for the possibility of adopting inflation targeting, for which transparency and autonomy are prerequisites. The interest rate channel can play the role of a nominal anchor in the long run.

scholarly journals Optimal Monetary Policy Under Bounded Rationality

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (166) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Benchimol ◽  
Lahcen Bounader
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Bounded Rationality ◽  
Optimal Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Optimal Monetary Policy ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Welfare Losses ◽  
Simple Rules

The form of bounded rationality characterizing the representative agent is key in the choice of the optimal monetary policy regime. While inflation targeting prevails for myopia that distorts agents' inflation expectations, price level targeting emerges as the optimal policy under myopia regarding the output gap, revenue, or interest rate. To the extent that bygones are not bygones under price level targeting, rational inflation expectations is a minimal condition for optimality in a behavioral world. Instrument rules implementation of this optimal policy is shown to be infeasible, questioning the ability of simple rules à la Taylor (1993) to assist the conduct of monetary policy. Bounded rationality is not necessarily associated with welfare losses.

Inflation targeting in Hungary: A case study

2008 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Erdős
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Favourable Effect ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Use ◽  
Harmful Effects

In the present article the author examines how to develop economic and monetary policy in order to efficiently apply inflation targeting. In Hungary, an inflation targeting system has been applied since 2001. As a result of the current monetary policy, consumer price level must regularly be kept stable at least in a mid-term approach in the middle but possibly also in the long run, or else it should be rising slowly, two per cent per year, at the most. Should the monetary authority have to deal with an already existing fast inflation rate, a considerable reduction of the rate of inflation must be aimed at year by year. Once monetary policy succeeds in bringing down inflation, the low rate achieved must permanently be secured. However, it is not sure that monetary policy has to prefer inflation targeting under any circumstances whatsoever.This policy has a favourable effect only if two substantial preconditions are given: public finances are near the equilibrium and nominal wages are regularly adjusted to the growth rate of GDP. Otherwise, inflation targeting may also have harmful effects such as excessive overvaluation of the national currency, excess of domestic use over GNP, increase of domestic and external debt, decreasing trend of the savings and investment rate, lower economic growth potential.

scholarly journals The role of money in monetary policy design of modern central banks

2007 ◽  
Vol 59 (4) ◽  
pp. 560-578
Author(s):  
Gradimir Kozetinac
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Design ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Indicator Variable ◽  
Monetary Aggregates ◽  
Long Run

This paper considers the role of money, particularly the role of monetary analysis in monetary policy-making. During the last three decades, many central banks changed their monetary policy considerably. In the late 1970s money and the long-run effects of its movements on inflation were in the center-stage of economic policy. Given the breakdown of the relationship between monetary aggregates and goal variables such as inflation, many countries in the world have recently adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy regime. The direct control of money supply lost importance. Central bankers operate in an environment of high uncertainty regarding the functioning of the economy. In such a complex environment, a single model or a limited set of indicators is not a sufficient guide for monetary policy. Monetary aggregates continue to be an important indicator variable concludes the author.

scholarly journals Analysis of nominal exchange rate pass-through effect on inflation rate in selected countries

Bankarstvo ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 8-35
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Živković
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

Inflation rate is one of the essential macroeconomics variables and it represents the main goal of monetary policy. It is determined by a great number of factors, so it is necessary to analyse the impact their changes have on inflation rate. The purpose of this research is the analysis of the nominal exchange rate pass-through effect on inflation rate in selected emerging and developed countries in the period 2014-2020, which share the same characteristics of inflation targeting, as main monetary policy regime, and managed floating exchange rate, as exchange rate type. Inverse proportion between volatility of nominal exchange rate and inflation rate is proven (depreciation of nominal exchange rate of national currency leads towards the growth of inflation rate), as well as higher pass-through effect in emerging countries compared to developed countries.

Monetary policy and the effect of the transfer of oil prices to inflation

2020 ◽  
pp. 41-50
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
I. D. Medvedev
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choice of the monetary policy regime on the strength of this influence. We used dynamic models on panel data for the countries of the world for the period from 2000 to 2017. It is shown that mainly the impact of changes in oil prices on inflation is carried out through the channel of exchange rate. The paper demonstrates the influence of the transition to inflation targeting on the nature of the relationship between oil price shocks and inflation. This effect is asymmetrical: during periods of rising oil prices, inflation targeting reduces the effect of the transfer of oil prices, limiting negative effects of shock. During periods of decline in oil prices, this monetary policy regime, in contrast, contributes to a stronger transfer, helping to reduce inflation.

The influence of inflation targeting on the pass-through effect of the exchange rate

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-84
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
Yu. I. Yakimova
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

The paper studies the impact of the transition to the inflation targeting regime on the magnitude of the pass-through effect of the exchange rate to prices. We analyze cross-country panel data on developed and developing countries. It is shown that the transition to this regime of monetary policy contributes to a significant reduction in both the short- and long-term pass-through effects. This decline is stronger in developing countries. We identify the main channels that ensure the influence of the monetary policy regime on the pass-through effect, and examine their performance. In addition, we analyze the data of time series for Russia. It was concluded that even there the transition to inflation targeting led to a decrease in the dependence of the level of inflation on fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate.

Perspectives on inflation Targeting Regime in Russia

2014 ◽  
pp. 107-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Andryushin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Indirect Control ◽  
Financial Account ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Private And Public

The paper analyzes monetary policy of the Bank of Russia from 2008 to 2014. It presents the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators testifying to inability of the Bank of Russia to transit to inflation targeting regime. It is shown that the presence of short-term interest rates in the top borders of the percentage corridor does not allow to consider the key rate as a basic tool of monetary policy. The article justifies that stability of domestic prices is impossible with-out exchange rate stability. It is proved that to decrease excessive volatility on national consumer and financial markets it is reasonable to apply a policy of managing financial account, actively using for this purpose direct and indirect control tools for the cross-border flows of the private and public capital.

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