Employment Adjustments of Regular and Non-Regular Workers to Exogenous Shocks: Evidence from Exchange-Rate Fluctuation

ILR Review ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 001979391988796 ◽  
Author(s):  
Izumi Yokoyama ◽  
Kazuhito Higa ◽  
Daiji Kawaguchi
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Exogenous Shocks ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Japanese Yen ◽  
Specific Human Capital

The authors investigate the adjustments in employment of regular and non-regular workers, exploiting the exchange-rate fluctuation and heterogeneous dependence on international trade across firms as a source of exogenous variation. An analysis of panel data of Japanese manufacturers reveals that the appreciation of the Japanese yen spontaneously decreased the sales of exporters and the employment of non-regular workers, but it did not reduce the employment of regular workers. This finding provides support for the claim that firms are likely to adjust the employment of non-regular workers to absorb exogenous shocks and to insulate regular workers from the shocks in an uncertain business environment. In exploring the mechanism driving these results, the authors also find that exporters use the employment of non-regular workers and wages of regular workers as adjustment margins for the exchange-rate fluctuation to hoard regular workers, who presumably hold higher levels of firm-specific human capital.

Exchange-rate fluctuation and pricing behavior in China’s wood-based panel exporters: evidence from panel data

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (10) ◽  
pp. 1392-1404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fang Wang ◽  
Zhonghua Yin ◽  
Jianbang Gan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
International Market ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Pricing To Market ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Pricing Behavior ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

As the largest wood-based panel producing and exporting country, China has experienced sharp reductions in the growth rate of its wood-based panel exports because of pressure caused by exchange-rate fluctuation. These fluctuations were exacerbated by the global financial crisis. China’s wood-based panel exporters need to adjust their pricing strategy to cope with the changes of international market conditions. Thus, it is necessary to investigate the relationship between exchange-rate fluctuation and the pricing behavior of China’s wood-based panel exporters. To evaluate the impact of the exchange rate on China’s wood-based panel export prices across multiple destinations, a pricing-to-market model incorporating panel data was used. The empirical results suggest that although complete exchange-rate pass-through exists widely in China’s wood-based exports, China’s fiberboard and plywood exporters tended to adopt different pricing strategies in the international wood-based panel market during the post-crisis era. China’s fiberboard exporters often used the pricing-to-market model to determine prices in the main export destination countries, while China’s plywood exporters tended to amplify the exchange-rate effects. This indicates that China’s plywood exporters have stronger international market power than China’s fiberboard exporters, partly because China’s plywood exporters have more advantages in terms of skilled labor.

FORECASTING THE RUBLE EXCHANGE RATE BASED ON THE MACROECONOMIC PARAMETERS

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (6) ◽  
pp. 73-81
Author(s):  
L. A. CHALDAEVA ◽  
◽  
A. A. DANILIN ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
National Currency ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Currency Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Major Factors

This article covers the forecasts of the USD/RUB exchange rate based on the econometric model. The major factors effect on the national currency exchange rate are interest rate, inflation, and price of oil. The reasons of the exchange rate fluctuation have been presented in this paper. A possible scenario of future USD/RUB fluctuations has been considered in this article.

scholarly journals Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Foreign Reserves on Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 04 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nkire Nneamaka Loretta ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government

This study examines the effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Foreign Reserves on Macroeconomics Performance in Nigeria from 1980-2019. The variables of interest include External Debt, Reserves, Exchange Rate, External Debt Servicing and Government Expenditure were analyzed using co-integration, auto-redistribution lag model (ARDL) and Granger Causality test to understand the long and short run relationship between the variables. Result revealed that there is a unidirectional relationship between foreign reserves and the exchange rate. Exchange rate Granger causes foreign reserves in Nigeria, while foreign reserves do not granger cause exchange rate Granger. This means that as the exchange rate depreciates or appreciates, it always has an impact on Nigeria's foreign reserves. The study recommends among other thing that the government should ensure that the country's foreign reserves are used and managed efficiently. This is because it has been established that foreign reserves have a beneficial impact on macroeconomic performance and stimulate economic growth both of which help to enhance the Nigerian economy.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate and International Trade: Case From Indonesian Manufacturing Sector

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 247-266
Author(s):  
Anung Yoga Anindhita
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

Exchange rate fluctuation in Floating Exchange Rate Regime is considered to Exchange rate fluctuation in Floating Exchange Rate Regime is considered to have impacts on the international trade through its adjustment to the price and its volatility to the trade risk. This paper is aimed at estimating those impacts on the international trade of manufacturing sector in Indonesia for period 2007 to 2014. To conduct estimation, it uses multiple regression analysis on two models: First, the import of raw-and-auxiliary materials; Second, the export of manufacturing sector. The results show that the exchange rate impacts both work significantly on the import of raw-and-auxiliary materials. The finding implies that, through the import of raw-and-auxiliary materials, manufacturing sector is very susceptible to the shock caused by exchange rate changes. Meanwhile, the export of manufacturing sector is not able to take advantage of the depreciation of the exchange rate due to the lack of competitiveness.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v6i2.5210

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS ON BALI TOURISM SECTOR

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Ignatius Adhi Nugroho ◽  
Stephanie Gunawan ◽  
Agni Alam Awirya ◽  
Putriana Nurman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Event Studies ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
The Exchange Rate

<p>Trade, hotel, and restaurant sector which represents tourism sector is the biggest contributor for Bali economy sector. It accounts for more than 30% of Bali income. Most of the income comes from foreign tourists’ expenditure which accounts for more than half of the local tourists’ with the foreign tourists’ arrival of 36% more of the locals’. The fact therefore underlines the importance of foreign tourist growth observation due to its significance for Bali economy. This research aims at estimating the change of tourists’ arrival because of the fluctuation of rupiah (depreciation and appreciation) which allegedly thought as one of the underlying factors affecting the number of tourists’ arrival. This research also aims at analyzing the sensitivity of foreign tourists’ to the change of traveling cost and at analyzing the tourists’ destination shift should there be any change of traveling cost and also at analyzing the characteristics of the foreign tourists affected by the exchange rate fluctuations. Event studies shows that exchange rate fluctuation does not affect foreign tourists’ decision on coming to Bali. This is due to the fact that foreign tourists’ arrival escalates regardless the exchange rate fluctuation (depreciation and appreciation). Meanwhile, descriptive analysis shows that only minority of foreign tourists are affected by exchange rate fluctuations with underlying characteristic of the country of origin. Moreover, despite the rise of traveling cost to Bali, more than 50% respondents choose to travel to Bali and although there is a change of destination, more than 30% respondents choose other Asian countries as a replacement. It is also revealed that the older the tourists, the less the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on their decision to visit Bali.</p>

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Volatility and Aggregate Exports: Evidence from Two Small Countries

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Serenis ◽  
Nicholas Tsounis
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Small Countries ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Positive Effect

This paper examines the effect of exchange rate volatility for two small countries, Croatia and Cyprus, on aggregate exports during the period of first quarter of 1990 to first quarter of 2012. It is claimed by some researchers that exchange rate volatility causes a reduction on the overall level of trade. Empirical researchers often utilize the standard deviation of the moving average of the logarithm of the exchange rate as a measure of exchange rate fluctuation. In this study, we propose a new measure for volatility. Overall, our results suggest that there is a positive effect of volatility on exports of Croatia and Cyprus.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Volatility and Domestic Consumption: A Comparative Study of Developed, Developing and Emerging Economies

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 164
Author(s):  
Muhammad Zubair Chishti ◽  
Hafiz Syed Muhammad Azeem ◽  
Farrukh Mahmood ◽  
Adeel Ahmed Sheikh
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Domestic Consumption ◽  
Aggregate Consumption ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Panel Data Estimation ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Data Estimation

The current study endeavors to explore the effects of oscillations in the exchange rate on the household aggregate consumption of developed, emerging, and developing economies, employing the panel data from 1995 to 2017. To select an appropriate panel data estimation technique, we apply Brush-Pagan & Hausman Tests for each set of chosen economies. Further, our study deduces that, in the case of developed economies, the oscillations in the exchange rate, significantly, affect the domestic consumption, supporting Alexander’s (1952) conjecture. However, in the case of emerging and developing economies, aggregate consumption does not respond to the exchange rate volatility.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices: Evidence from OECD Countries

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harun Bal ◽  
Mehmet Demiral ◽  
Filiz Yetiz
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

There is an immense literature on the effects of exchange rate changes on macroeconomic indicators, specifically on the trade balance, growth, inflation, and overall productivity in open economies. One of the main attempts in the related literature is about ascertaining whether the exchange rate fluctuations alter domestic prices. This possible mechanism is called as the pass-through effect which is getting more important since the argument that exchange rate adjustment is a part of the solution for global rebalancing is empirically well-supported. Starting from this claim, this study purposes to explore whether there is an exchange rate pass-through effect in 19 high-income OECD countries over the period 1990-2015. To this end, using a panel data set of consumer price index, producer price index proxied by wholesale price index, the nominal effective exchange rates, and industrial production presented by the value-added share of industry sectors in gross domestic product, structural vector autoregressive (VAR) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models are estimated in an unbalanced panel data analysis procedure. Results reveal that exchange rate pass-through effects on the domestic prices are significant but not that strong in both the short-run and the long-run. Expectedly, the pass-through effects tend to diminish over time. The study concludes that policy-makers need to consider policy actions accompanying the exchange rate changes to ensure domestic price stability which consequently interacts with many macroeconomic indicators.

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