The Imbalance of Power
From the start of the war, the French agents in the U.S. saw the North’s demographic, economic, financial, and technological superiority. However, faced with the staunch determination of the enemy troops, the Union’s military superiority remained in question. French Consul Alfred Paul in Richmond aptly predicted from the beginning that war was inevitable, as was a Union victory. His analysis shaped the view of the Tuileries cabinet on the overall military situation. The imperial government considered that the South’s chances of winning its independence depended on the Federal government’s either backing out in the face of the rebels’ prodigious efforts or being rejected through the ballot box. Paris realized the extent of the North’s potential when Lincoln’s persistence in the war was rewarded with electoral triumph, strengthening his administration.