Dynamic evaluation of a multi-year model simulation of particulate matter concentrations over Europe

Abstract. A 9 yr air quality simulation is conducted from 2000 to 2008 over Europe using the Polyphemus/Polair3D chemical-transport model (CTM) and then evaluated against the measurements of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP). The spatial distribution of PM2.5 over Europe shows high concentrations over northern Italy (36 μg m−3) and some areas of Eastern Europe, France, and Benelux, and low concentrations over Scandinavia, Spain, and the easternmost part of Europe. PM2.5 composition differs among regions. The operational evaluation shows satisfactory model performance for ozone (O3). PM2.5, PM10, and sulfate (SO4=) meet the performance goal of Boylan and Russell (2006). Nitrate (NO3−) and ammonium (NH4+) are overestimated, although NH4+ meets the performance criterion. The correlation coefficients between simulated and observed data are 63% for O3, 57% for PM10, 59% for PM2.5, 57% for SO4=, 42% for NO3−, and 58% for NH4+. The comparison with other recent 1 yr model simulations shows that all models overestimate nitrate. The performance of PM2.5, sulfate, and ammonium is comparable to that of the other models. The dynamic evaluation shows that the response of PM2.5 to changes in meteorology differs depending on location and the meteorological variable considered. Wind speed and precipitation show a strong negative day-to-day correlation with PM2.5 and its components (except for sea salt, which shows a positive correlation), which tends towards 0 as the day lag increases. On the other hand, the correlation coefficient is near constant for temperature, for any day lag and PM2.5 species, but it may be positive or negative depending on the species and, for sulfate, depending on the location. The effects of precipitation and wind speed on PM2.5 and its components are better reproduced by the model than the effects of temperature. This is mainly due to the fact that temperature has different effects on the PM2.5 components, unlike precipitation and wind speed, which impact most of the PM2.5 components in the same way. These results suggest that state-of-the-science air quality models reproduce satisfactorily the effect of meteorology on PM2.5 and therefore are suitable to investigate the effects of climate change on particulate air quality, although uncertainties remain concerning semivolatile PM2.5 components.

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Dynamic evaluation of a multi-year model simulation of particulate matter concentrations over Europe

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-13-475-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 475-526

Author(s):

È. Lecœur ◽

C. Seigneur

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Wind Speed ◽

Transport Model ◽

Model Simulation ◽

Model Performance ◽

The Other ◽

Performance Criteria ◽

Chemical Transport Model ◽

Performance Goal ◽

Dynamic Evaluation

Abstract. A nine-year air quality simulation is conducted from 2000 to 2008 over Europe using the Polyphemus/Polair3D chemical-transport model (CTM) and then evaluated against the measurements of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP). The spatial distribution of PM2.5 over Europe shows high concentrations over northern Italy (36 μg m−3) and some areas of eastern Europe, France, and Benelux, and low concentrations over Scandinavia, Spain, and the easternmost part of Europe. PM2.5 composition differs among regions. The operational evaluation shows satisfactory model performance for ozone (O3). PM2.5, PM10, and sulfate (SO42−) meet the performance goal of Boylan and Russell (2006). Nitrate (NO3−) and ammonium (NH4+) are overestimated, although NH4+ meets the performance criteria. The correlation coefficients between simulated and observed data are 63% for O3, 57% for PM10, 59% for PM2.5, 57% for SO42−, 42% for NO3−, and 58% for NH4+. The comparison with other recent one-year model simulations shows that all models overestimate nitrate. The performance of PM2.5, sulfate, and ammonium is comparable to that of the other models. The dynamic evaluation shows that the response of PM2.5 to changes in meteorology differs depending on location and the meteorological variable considered. Wind speed and precipitation show a strong negative day-to-day correlation with PM2.5 and its components (except for sea salt, which shows a positive correlation), that tends towards 0 as the day lag increases. On the other hand, the correlation coefficient is near constant for temperature, for any day lag and PM2.5 species, but it may be positive or negative depending on the species and, for sulfate, depending on the location. The effects of precipitation and wind speed on PM2.5 and its components are better reproduced by the model than the effects of temperature. This is mainly due to the fact that temperature has different effects on the PM2.5 components, unlike precipitation and wind speed which impact most of the PM2.5 components in the same way. These results suggest that state-of-the-science air quality models reproduce satisfactorily the effect of meteorology on PM2.5 and, therefore, are suitable to investigate the effects of climate change on particulate air quality.

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Urban Air Quality Modeling Using Low-Cost Sensor Network and Data Assimilation in the Aburrá Valley, Colombia

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12010091 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 91

Author(s):

Santiago Lopez-Restrepo ◽

Andres Yarce ◽

Nicolás Pinel ◽

O.L. Quintero ◽

Arjo Segers ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Data Assimilation ◽

Transport Model ◽

Cost Model ◽

Low Cost ◽

Model Performance ◽

Monitoring Network ◽

Correlation Factor ◽

Chemical Transport Model ◽

High Quality

The use of low air quality networks has been increasing in recent years to study urban pollution dynamics. Here we show the evaluation of the operational Aburrá Valley’s low-cost network against the official monitoring network. The results show that the PM2.5 low-cost measurements are very close to those observed by the official network. Additionally, the low-cost allows a higher spatial representation of the concentrations across the valley. We integrate low-cost observations with the chemical transport model Long Term Ozone Simulation-European Operational Smog (LOTOS-EUROS) using data assimilation. Two different configurations of the low-cost network were assimilated: using the whole low-cost network (255 sensors), and a high-quality selection using just the sensors with a correlation factor greater than 0.8 with respect to the official network (115 sensors). The official stations were also assimilated to compare the more dense low-cost network’s impact on the model performance. Both simulations assimilating the low-cost model outperform the model without assimilation and assimilating the official network. The capability to issue warnings for pollution events is also improved by assimilating the low-cost network with respect to the other simulations. Finally, the simulation using the high-quality configuration has lower error values than using the complete low-cost network, showing that it is essential to consider the quality and location and not just the total number of sensors. Our results suggest that with the current advance in low-cost sensors, it is possible to improve model performance with low-cost network data assimilation.

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Assessing Douro Vineyards Exposure to Tropospheric Ozone

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12020200 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 200

Author(s):

Ana Ascenso ◽

Carla Gama ◽

Daniel Blanco-Ward ◽

Alexandra Monteiro ◽

Carlos Silveira ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Tropospheric Ozone ◽

Transport Model ◽

Sugar Content ◽

Productivity Loss ◽

Ozone Exposure ◽

Vitis Vinifera L ◽

Chemical Transport Model ◽

Wine Production ◽

Exposure Response

Tropospheric ozone (O3) can strongly damage vegetation. Grapevines (Vitis vinifera L.), in particular, have intermediate sensitivity to ozone. Wine production is an important economic activity, as well as a pillar to the cultural identity of several countries in the world. This study aims to evaluate the risk of Douro vineyards exposure to ozone, by estimating its concentration and deposition in the Demarcated Region of Douro in Portugal. Based on an assessment of the climatology of the area, the years 2003 to 2005 were selected among the hottest years of the recent past, and the chemical transport model CHIMERE was used to estimate the three-dimensional field of ozone and its dry deposition over the Douro region with 1 km2 of horizontal resolution. Model results were validated by comparison with measured data from the European air quality database (AirBase). The exposure indicator AOT40 (accumulated concentration of ozone above 40 ppb) was calculated and an exposure–response function was applied to determine the grapevine risk to ozone exposure. The target value for the protection of vegetation established by the Air Quality Framework Directive was exceeded on most of the Douro region, especially over the Baixo Corgo and Cima Corgo sub-regions. The results of the exposure–response functions suggest that the productivity loss can reach 27% and that the sugar content of the grapes could be reduced by 32%, but these values are affected by the inherent uncertainty of the used methodology.

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A new diagnostic for tropospheric ozone production

10.5194/acp-2017-378 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Peter M. Edwards ◽

Mathew J. Evans

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Tropospheric Ozone ◽

Transport Model ◽

Chemical Transport ◽

Ozone Production ◽

Chemical Transport Model ◽

Organic Species ◽

Earth’S Climate ◽

Oxidation Of Organics

Abstract. Tropospheric ozone is important for the Earth’s climate and air quality. It is produced during the oxidation of organics in the presence of nitrogen oxides. Due to the range of organic species emitted and the chain like nature of their oxidation, this chemistry is complex and understanding the role of different processes (emission, deposition, chemistry) is difficult. We demonstrate a new methodology for diagnosing ozone production based on the processing of bonds contained within emitted molecules, the fate of which is determined by the conservation of spin of the bonding electrons. Using this methodology to diagnose ozone production in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, we demonstrate its advantages over the standard diagnostic. We show that the number of bonds emitted, their chemistry and lifetime, and feedbacks on OH are all important in determining the ozone production within the model and its sensitivity to changes. This insight may allow future model-model comparisons to better identify the root causes of model differences.

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The added value of a visible channel to a geostationary thermal infrared instrument to monitor ozone for air quality

Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions ◽

10.5194/amtd-7-1645-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 7 (2) ◽

pp. 1645-1689

Author(s):

E. Hache ◽

J.-L. Attié ◽

C. Tourneur ◽

P. Ricaud ◽

L. Coret ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Transport Model ◽

Statistical Tests ◽

Surface Ozone ◽

A Priori ◽

Thermal Infrared ◽

Added Value ◽

Chemical Transport Model ◽

Geo Satellite ◽

Sky Conditions

Abstract. Ozone is a tropospheric pollutant and plays a key role in determining the air quality that affects human wellbeing. In this study, we compare the capability of two hypothetical grating spectrometers onboard a geostationary (GEO) satellite to sense ozone in the lowermost troposphere (surface and the 0–1 km column). We consider one week during the Northern Hemisphere summer simulated by a chemical transport model, and use the two GEO instrument configurations to measure ozone concentration (1) in the thermal infrared (GEO TIR) and (2) in the thermal infrared and the visible (GEO TIR+VIS). These configurations are compared against each other, and also against an ozone reference state and a priori ozone information. In a first approximation, we assume clear sky conditions neglecting the influence of aerosols and clouds. A number of statistical tests are used to assess the performance of the two GEO configurations. We consider land and sea pixels and whether differences between the two in the performance are significant. Results show that the GEO TIR+VIS configuration provides a better representation of the ozone field both for surface ozone and the 0–1 km ozone column during the daytime especially over land.

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Secondary organic aerosol in the global aerosol – chemistry transport model Oslo CTM2

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-7-9053-2007 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 7 (3) ◽

pp. 9053-9092 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

C. R. Hoyle ◽

T. Berntsen ◽

G. Myhre ◽

I. S. A. Isaksen

Keyword(s):

Ammonium Sulphate ◽

Secondary Organic Aerosol ◽

Transport Model ◽

Model Simulation ◽

Anthropogenic Activities ◽

Organic Aerosol ◽

Oxidation Products ◽

Total Production ◽

Chemical Transport Model ◽

Sulphate Aerosol

Abstract. The global chemical transport model Oslo CTM2 has been extended to include the formation, transport and deposition of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). Precursor hydrocarbons which are oxidised to form condensible species include both biogenic species such as terpenes and isoprene, as well as species emitted predominantly by anthropogenic activities (toluene, m-xylene, methylbenzene and other aromatics). A model simulation for 2004 gives an annual global SOA production of approximately 55 Tg. Of this total, 2.5 Tg is found to consist of the oxidation products of anthropogenically emitted hydrocarbons, and about 15 Tg is formed by the oxidation products of isoprene. The global production of SOA is increased to about 76 Tg yr−1 by allowing semi-volatile species to condense on ammonium sulphate aerosol. This brings modelled organic aerosol values closer to those observed, however observations in Europe remain significantly underestimated, raising the possibility of an unaccounted for SOA source. Allowing SOA to form on ammonium sulphate aerosol increases the contribution of anthropogenic SOA from about 4.5% to almost 9% of the total production. The importance of NO3 as an oxidant of SOA precursors is found to vary regionally, causing up to 50%–60% of the total amount of SOA near the surface in polluted regions and less than 25% in more remote areas. This study underscores the need for SOA to be represented in a more realistic way in global aerosol models in order to better reproduce observations of organic aerosol burdens in industrialised and biomass burning regions.

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Skill-Testing Chemical Transport Models across Contrasting Atmospheric Mixing States Using Radon-222

10.20944/preprints201811.0607.v1 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Scott D. Chambers ◽

Elise-Andree Guérette ◽

Khalia Monk ◽

Alan D. Griffiths ◽

Yang Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Diurnal Cycle ◽

Transport Model ◽

Chemical Transport ◽

Chemical Transport Model ◽

Transport Models ◽

Potential Health ◽

Meteorological Model ◽

Model Skill ◽

Chemical Transport Models

We propose a new technique to prepare statistically-robust benchmarking data for evaluating chemical transport model meteorology and air quality parameters within the urban boundary layer. The approach employs atmospheric class-typing, using nocturnal radon measurements to assign atmospheric mixing classes, and can be applied temporally (across the diurnal cycle), or spatially (to create angular distributions of pollutants as a top-down constraint on emissions inventories). In this study only a short (<1-month) campaign is used, but grouping of the relative mixing classes based on nocturnal mean radon concentrations can be adjusted according to dataset length (i.e., number of days per category), or desired range of within-class variability. Calculating hourly distributions of observed and simulated values across diurnal composites of each class-type helps to: (i) bridge the gap between scales of simulation and observation, (ii) represent the variability associated with spatial and temporal heterogeneity of sources and meteorology without being confused by it, and (iii) provide an objective way to group results over whole diurnal cycles that separates ‘natural complicating factors’ (synoptic non-stationarity, rainfall, mesoscale motions, extreme stability, etc.) from problems related to parameterizations, or between-model differences. We demonstrate the utility of this technique using output from a suite of seven contemporary regional forecast and chemical transport models. Meteorological model skill varied across the diurnal cycle for all models, with an additional dependence on the atmospheric mixing class that varied between models. From an air quality perspective, model skill regarding the duration and magnitude of morning and evening “rush hour” pollution events varied strongly as a function of mixing class. Model skill was typically the lowest when public exposure would have been the highest, which has important implications for assessing potential health risks in new and rapidly evolving urban regions, and also for prioritizing the areas of model improvement for future applications.

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Coupling between surface ozone and leaf area index in a chemical transport model: strength of feedback and implications for ozone air quality and vegetation health

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-18-14133-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 18 (19) ◽

pp. 14133-14148 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Shan S. Zhou ◽

Amos P. K. Tai ◽

Shihan Sun ◽

Mehliyar Sadiq ◽

Colette L. Heald ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Leaf Area Index ◽

Leaf Area ◽

Dry Deposition ◽

Transport Model ◽

Surface Ozone ◽

Chemical Transport ◽

Chemical Transport Model ◽

Area Index ◽

Ozone Levels

Abstract. Tropospheric ozone is an air pollutant that substantially harms vegetation and is also strongly dependent on various vegetation-mediated processes. The interdependence between ozone and vegetation may constitute feedback mechanisms that can alter ozone concentration itself but have not been considered in most studies to date. In this study we examine the importance of dynamic coupling between surface ozone and leaf area index (LAI) in shaping ozone air quality and vegetation. We first implement an empirical scheme for ozone damage on vegetation in the Community Land Model (CLM) and simulate the steady-state responses of LAI to long-term exposure to a range of prescribed ozone levels (from 0 to 100 ppb). We find that most plant functional types suffer a substantial decline in LAI as ozone level increases. Based on the CLM-simulated results, we develop and implement in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model a parameterization that computes fractional changes in monthly LAI as a function of local mean ozone levels. By forcing LAI to respond to ozone concentrations on a monthly timescale, the model simulates ozone–LAI coupling dynamically via biogeochemical processes including biogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions and dry deposition, without the complication from meteorological changes. We find that ozone-induced damage on LAI can lead to changes in ozone concentrations by −1.8 to +3 ppb in boreal summer, with a corresponding ozone feedback factor of −0.1 to +0.6 that represents an overall self-amplifying effect from ozone–LAI coupling. Substantially higher simulated ozone due to strong positive feedbacks is found in most tropical forests, mainly due to the ozone-induced reductions in LAI and dry deposition velocity, whereas reduced isoprene emission plays a lesser role in these low-NOx environments. In high-NOx regions such as the eastern US, Europe, and China, however, the feedback effect is much weaker and even negative in some regions, reflecting the compensating effects of reduced dry deposition and reduced isoprene emission (which reduces ozone in high-NOx environments). In remote, low-LAI regions, including most of the Southern Hemisphere, the ozone feedback is generally slightly negative due to the reduced transport of NOx–VOC reaction products that serve as NOx reservoirs. This study represents the first step to accounting for dynamic ozone–vegetation coupling in a chemical transport model with ramifications for a more realistic joint assessment of ozone air quality and ecosystem health.

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Impacts of Current and Projected Oil Palm Plantation Expansion on Air Quality Over Southeast Asia

10.5194/acp-2016-158 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Sam J. Silva ◽

Colette L. Heald ◽

Jeffrey A. Geddes ◽

Kemen G. Austin ◽

Prasad S. Kasibhatla ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Southeast Asia ◽

Oil Palm ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Transport Model ◽

Chemical Transport Model ◽

Oil Palm Plantation ◽

Deposition Velocities ◽

Current Constellation ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Over recent decades oil palm plantations have rapidly expanded across Southeast Asia (SEA). According to the United Nations, oil palm production in SEA increased by a factor of 3 from 1995 to 2010. We investigate the impacts of current (2010) and future (2020) oil palm expansion in SEA on surface-atmosphere exchange and the resulting air quality in the region. For this purpose, we use satellite data, high-resolution land maps, and the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. Relative to a no oil palm plantation scenario (~ 1990), overall simulated isoprene emissions in the region increase by 13 % due to oil palm plantations in 2010 and a further 11 % by 2020. In addition, the expansion of palm plantations leads to local increases in ozone deposition velocities of up to 20 %. The net result of these changes is that oil palm expansion in SEA increases surface O3 by up to 3.5 ppbv over dense urban regions, and could rise more than 4.5 ppbv above baseline levels by 2020. Biogenic secondary organic aerosol loadings also increase by up to 1 μg m−3 due to oil palm expansion, and could increase a further 2.5 μg m−3 by 2020. Our analysis indicates that while the impact of recent oil palm expansion on air quality in the region has been significant, the retrieval error and sensitivity of the current constellation of satellite measurements limit our ability to observe these impacts from space. Oil palm expansion is likely to continue to degrade air quality in the region in the coming decade and hinder efforts to achieve air quality regulations in major urban areas such as Kuala Lumpur and Singapore.

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Exploring the trends and potential drivers of surface ozone in eastern China in 2015-2018

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-8194 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ning Yang ◽

Yanru Bai ◽

Yong Zhu ◽

Nan Ma ◽

Qiaoqiao Wang

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Transport Model ◽

Surface Ozone ◽

Eastern China ◽

Yangtze River Delta ◽

River Delta ◽

Pearl River Delta Region ◽

Chemical Transport Model ◽

Delta Region ◽

Almost All

In the last six years, China has experienced significant improvement in air quality due to great emission reduction efforts. However, ozone concentrations are still slowly increasing in three major regions of eastern China, respectively Jing-Jin-Ji(JJJ), Yangtze River Delta region(YRD) and Pearl River Delta region(PRD). It is shown from the 2015-2018 national urban air quality real-time release platform that the surface ozone in JJJ, YRD and PRD has increased each year and reached the highest in 2018. The monthly ozone concentration peaked in June in almost all cities of JJJ, while it had multiple peaks in other two regions (summer and autumn in YRD - and February, May and September in PRD). Simulation with a chemical transport model(GEOS-Chem) indicates that the formation of ozone is affected by the optical properties of PM2.5 and also the heterogeneous uptake of N2O5 on sea salt aerosol.

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