scholarly journals Impact of future land-cover changes on HNO<sub>3</sub> and O<sub>3</sub> surface dry deposition

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (23) ◽  
pp. 13555-13568 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Verbeke ◽  
J. Lathière ◽  
S. Szopa ◽  
N. de Noblet-Ducoudré
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Dry Deposition ◽  
Deposition Velocity ◽  
Land Cover Changes ◽  
Vegetation Distribution ◽  
Deposition Velocities ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Dry deposition is a key component of surface–atmosphere exchange of compounds, acting as a sink for several chemical species. Meteorological factors, chemical properties of the trace gas considered and land surface properties are strong drivers of dry deposition efficiency and variability. Under both climatic and anthropogenic pressure, the vegetation distribution over the Earth has been changing a lot over the past centuries and could be significantly altered in the future. In this study, we perform a modeling investigation of the potential impact of land-cover changes between the present day (2006) and the future (2050) on dry deposition velocities at the surface, with special interest for ozone (O3) and nitric acid (HNO3), two compounds which are characterized by very different physicochemical properties. The 3-D chemistry-transport model LMDz-INCA is used, considering changes in vegetation distribution based on the three future projections, RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, and present-day (2007) meteorology. The 2050 RCP 8.5 vegetation distribution leads to a rise of up to 7 % (+0.02 cm s−1) in the surface deposition velocity calculated for ozone (Vd,O3) and a decrease of −0.06 cm s−1 in the surface deposition velocity calculated for nitric acid (Vd,HNO3) relative to the present-day values in tropical Africa and up to +18 and −15 %, respectively, in Australia. When taking into account the RCP 4.5 scenario, which shows dramatic land-cover change in Eurasia, Vd,HNO3 increases by up to 20 % (annual-mean value) and reduces Vd,O3 by the same magnitude in this region. When analyzing the impact of surface dry deposition change on atmospheric chemical composition, our model calculates that the effect is lower than 1 ppb on annual-mean surface ozone concentration for both the RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 scenarios. The impact on HNO3 surface concentrations is more disparate between the two scenarios regarding the spatial repartition of effects. In the case of the RCP 4.5 scenario, a significant increase of the surface O3 concentration reaching locally by up to 5 ppb (+5 %) is calculated on average during the June–August period. This scenario also induces an increase of HNO3 deposited flux exceeding locally 10 % for monthly values. Comparing the impact of land-cover change to the impact of climate change, considering a 0.93 °C increase of global temperature, on dry deposition velocities, we estimate that the strongest increase over lands occurs in the Northern Hemisphere during winter, especially in Eurasia, by +50 % (+0.07 cm s−1) for Vd,O3 and +100 % (+0.9 cm s−1) for Vd,HNO3. However, different regions are affected by both changes, with climate change impact on deposition characterized by a latitudinal gradient, while the land-cover change impact is much more heterogeneous depending on vegetation distribution modification described in the future RCP scenarios. The impact of long-term land-cover changes on dry deposition is shown to be significant and to differ strongly from one scenario to another. It should therefore be considered in biosphere–atmospheric chemistry interaction studies in order to have a fully consistent picture.

scholarly journals Impact of future land cover changes on HNO<sub>3</sub> and O<sub>3</sub> surface dry deposition

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (13) ◽  
pp. 18459-18485
Author(s):  
T. Verbeke ◽  
J. Lathière ◽  
S. Szopa ◽  
N. de Noblet-Ducoudré
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Dry Deposition ◽  
Chemical Properties ◽  
Land Cover Changes ◽  
Vegetation Distribution ◽  
The Future ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Dry deposition is a key component of surface–atmosphere exchange of compounds, acting as a sink for several chemical species. Meteorological factors, chemical properties of the trace gas considered and land surface properties are strong drivers of dry deposition efficiency and variability. Under both climatic and anthropogenic pressure, the vegetation distribution over the Earth has been changing a lot over the past centuries, and could be significantly altered in the future. In this study, we perform a modeling investigation of the potential impact of land-cover changes between present-day (2006) and the future (2050) on dry deposition rates, with special interest for ozone (O3) and nitric acid vapor (HNO3), two compounds which are characterized by very different physico-chemical properties. The 3-D chemistry transport model LMDz-INCA is used, considering changes in vegetation distribution based on the three future projections RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The 2050 RCP 8.5 vegetation distribution leads to a rise up to 7 % (+0.02 cm s−1) in VdO3 and a decrease of −0.06 cm s−1 in VdHNO3 relative to the present day values in tropical Africa, and up to +18 and −15 % respectively in Australia. When taking into account the RCP 4.5 scenario, which shows dramatic land cover change in Eurasia, VdHNO3 increases by up to 20 % (annual-mean value) and reduces VdO3 by the same magnitude in this region. When analyzing the impact of dry deposition change on atmospheric chemical composition, our model calculates that the effect is lower than 1 ppb on annual mean surface ozone concentration, for both for the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios. The impact on HNO3 surface concentrations is more disparate between the two scenarios, regarding the spatial repartition of effects. In the case of the RCP 4.5 scenario, a significant increase of the surface O3 concentration reaching locally up to 5 ppb (+5 %) is calculated on average during the June–August period. This scenario induces also an increase of HNO3 deposited flux exceeding locally 10 % for monthly values. Comparing the impact of land-cover change to the impact of climate change, considering a 0.93 °C increase of global temperature, on dry deposition velocities, we estimate that the strongest increase over lands occurs in the North Hemisphere during winter especially in Eurasia, by +50 % (+0.07 cm s−1) for VdO3 and +100 % (+0.9 cm s−1) for VdHNO3. However, different regions are affected by both changes, with climate change impact on deposition characterized by a latitudinal gradient, while the land-cover change impact is much more heterogeneous depending on vegetation distribution modification described in the future RCP scenarios. The impact of long-term land-cover changes on dry deposition is shown to be non-negligible and should be therefore considered in biosphere-atmospheric chemistry interaction studies in order to have a fully consistent picture.

scholarly journals Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 635-670
Author(s):  
Wolfgang A. Obermeier ◽  
Julia E. M. S. Nabel ◽  
Tammas Loughran ◽  
Kerstin Hartung ◽  
Ana Bastos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Land Cover Changes ◽  
Environmental Forcing ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Carbon

Abstract. Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC yr−1 for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC yr−1). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

scholarly journals Importance of Dry Deposition Parameterization Choice in Global Simulations of Surface Ozone

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Y. H. Wong ◽  
Jeffrey A. Geddes ◽  
Amos P. K. Tai ◽  
Sam J. Silva
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Dry Deposition ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Deposition Velocity ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Ozone Sensitivity ◽  
Dry Deposition Velocity ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Dry deposition is the second largest sink of tropospheric ozone. Increasing evidence has shown that ozone dry deposition actively links meteorology and hydrology with ozone air quality. However, there is little systematic investigation on the performance of different ozone dry deposition parameterizations at the global scale, and how parameterization choice can impact surface ozone simulations. Here we present the results of the first global, multi-decade modelling and evaluation of ozone dry deposition velocity (vd) using multiple ozone dry deposition parameterizations. We use consistent assimilated meteorology and satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI) to simulate vd over 1982–2011 driven by four sets of ozone dry deposition parametrization that are representative of the current approaches of global ozone dry deposition modelling, such that the differences in simulated vd are entirely due to differences in deposition model structures. In addition, we use the surface ozone sensitivity to vd predicted by a chemical transport model to estimate the impact of mean and variability of ozone dry deposition velocity on surface ozone. Our estimated vd from four different parameterizations are evaluated against field observations, and while performance varies considerably by land cover types, our results suggest that none of the parameterizations are universally better than the others. Discrepancy in simulated mean vd among the parameterizations is estimated to cause 2 to 5 ppbv of discrepancy in surface ozone in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and up to 8 ppbv in tropical rainforest in July, and up to 8 ppbv in tropical rainforests and seasonally dry tropical forests in Indochina in December. Parameterization-specific biases based on individual land cover type and hydroclimate are found to be the two main drivers of such discrepancies. We find statistically significant trends in the multiannual time series of simulated July daytime vd in all parameterizations, driven by warming and drying (southern Amazonia, southern African savannah and Mongolia) or greening (high latitudes). The trends in July daytime vd is estimated to be 1 % yr−1 and leads to up to 3 ppbv of surface ozone changes over 1982–2011. The interannual coefficient of variation (CV) of July daytime mean vd in NH is found to be 5 %–15 %, with spatial distribution that varies with the dry deposition parameterization. Our sensitivity simulations suggest this can contribute between 0.5 to 2 ppbv to interannual variability (IAV) in surface ozone, but all models tend to underestimate interannual CV when compared to long-term ozone flux observations. We also find that IAV in some dry deposition parameterizations are more sensitive to LAI while others are more sensitive to climate. Comparisons with other published estimates of the IAV of background ozone confirm that ozone dry deposition can be an important part of natural surface ozone variability. Our results demonstrate the importance of ozone dry deposition parameterization choice on surface ozone modelling, and the impact of IAV of vd on surface ozone, thus making a strong case for further measurement, evaluation and model-data integration of ozone dry deposition on different spatiotemporal scales.

scholarly journals Update and evaluation of the ozone dry deposition in Oslo CTM3 v1.0

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 4705-4728 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefanie Falk ◽  
Amund Søvde Haslerud
Keyword(s):  
Dry Deposition ◽  
Surface Resistance ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
Limiting Factors ◽  
Canopy Resistance ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
Deposition Velocities ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. High concentrations of ozone in ambient air are hazardous not only to humans but to the ecosystem in general. The impact of ozone damage on vegetation and agricultural plants in combination with advancing climate change may affect food security in the future. While the future scenarios in themselves are uncertain, there are limiting factors constraining the accuracy of surface ozone modeling also at present: the distribution and amount of ozone precursors and ozone-depleting substances, the stratosphere–troposphere exchange, as well as scavenging processes. Removal of any substance through gravitational settling or by uptake by plants and soil is referred to as dry deposition. The process of dry deposition is important for predicting surface ozone concentrations and understanding the observed amount and increase of tropospheric background ozone. The conceptual dry deposition velocities are calculated following a resistance-analogous approach, wherein aerodynamic, quasi-laminar, and canopy resistance are key components, but these are hard to measure explicitly. We present an update of the dry deposition scheme implemented in Oslo CTM3. We change from a purely empirical dry deposition parameterization to a more process-based one which takes the state of the atmosphere and vegetation into account. We examine the sensitivity of the scheme to various parameters, e.g., the stomatal conductance-based description of the canopy resistance and the choice of ozone surface resistance, and evaluate the resulting modeled ozone dry deposition with respect to observations and multi-model studies. Individual dry deposition velocities are now available for each land surface type and agree generally well with observations. We also estimate the impact on the modeled ozone concentrations at the surface. We show that the global annual total ozone dry deposition decreases with respect to the previous model version (−37 %), leading to an increase in surface ozone of more than 100 % in some regions. While high sensitivity to changes in dry deposition to vegetation is found in the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere, the largest impact on global scales is associated with the choice of prescribed ozone surface resistance over the ocean and deserts.

scholarly journals Quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on urban flood runoffs: a case of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Mzava ◽  
Patrick Valimba ◽  
Joel Nobert
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Dar Es Salaam ◽  
Land Cover Changes ◽  
Urban Flooding ◽  
Combined Effects ◽  
Peak Flows ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future

Abstract Over the past half-century, the risk of urban flooding in Dar es Salaam has increased due to changes in land cover coupled with climatic changes. This paper aimed to quantify the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on the magnitudes and frequencies of flood runoffs in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. A calibrated and validated SWAT rainfall-runoff model was used to generate flood hydrographs for the period 1969–2050 using historical rainfall data and projected rainfall based on the CORDEX-Africa regional climate model. Results showed that climate change has a greater impact on change in peak flows than land-cover change when the two are treated separately in theory. It was observed that, in the past, the probability of occurrence of urban flooding in the study area was likely to be increased up to 1.5-fold by climate change relative to land-cover change. In the future, this figure is estimated to decrease to 1.1-fold. The coupled effects of climate and land-cover changes cause a much bigger impact on change in peak flows than any separate scenario; this scenario represents the actual scenario on the ground. From the combined effects of climate and land-cover changes, the magnitudes of mean peak flows were determined to increase between 34.4 and 58.6% in the future relative to the past. However, the change in peak flows from combined effects of climate and land-cover changes will decrease by 36.3% in the future relative to the past; owing to the lesser variations in climate and land-cover changes in the future compared with those of the past.

scholarly journals Importance of dry deposition parameterization choice in global simulations of surface ozone

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (22) ◽  
pp. 14365-14385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Y. H. Wong ◽  
Jeffrey A. Geddes ◽  
Amos P. K. Tai ◽  
Sam J. Silva
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Dry Deposition ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Deposition Velocity ◽  
Tropical Rainforests ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Ozone Sensitivity ◽  
Dry Deposition Velocity ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Dry deposition is a major sink of tropospheric ozone. Increasing evidence has shown that ozone dry deposition actively links meteorology and hydrology with ozone air quality. However, there is little systematic investigation on the performance of different ozone dry deposition parameterizations at the global scale and how parameterization choice can impact surface ozone simulations. Here, we present the results of the first global, multidecadal modelling and evaluation of ozone dry deposition velocity (vd) using multiple ozone dry deposition parameterizations. We model ozone dry deposition velocities over 1982–2011 using four ozone dry deposition parameterizations that are representative of current approaches in global ozone dry deposition modelling. We use consistent assimilated meteorology, land cover, and satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI) across all four, such that the differences in simulated vd are entirely due to differences in deposition model structures or assumptions about how land types are treated in each. In addition, we use the surface ozone sensitivity to vd predicted by a chemical transport model to estimate the impact of mean and variability of ozone dry deposition velocity on surface ozone. Our estimated vd values from four different parameterizations are evaluated against field observations, and while performance varies considerably by land cover types, our results suggest that none of the parameterizations are universally better than the others. Discrepancy in simulated mean vd among the parameterizations is estimated to cause 2 to 5 ppbv of discrepancy in surface ozone in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and up to 8 ppbv in tropical rainforests in July, and up to 8 ppbv in tropical rainforests and seasonally dry tropical forests in Indochina in December. Parameterization-specific biases based on individual land cover type and hydroclimate are found to be the two main drivers of such discrepancies. We find statistically significant trends in the multiannual time series of simulated July daytime vd in all parameterizations, driven by warming and drying (southern Amazonia, southern African savannah, and Mongolia) or greening (high latitudes). The trend in July daytime vd is estimated to be 1 % yr−1 and leads to up to 3 ppbv of surface ozone changes over 1982–2011. The interannual coefficient of variation (CV) of July daytime mean vd in NH is found to be 5 %–15 %, with spatial distribution that varies with the dry deposition parameterization. Our sensitivity simulations suggest this can contribute between 0.5 to 2 ppbv to interannual variability (IAV) in surface ozone, but all models tend to underestimate interannual CV when compared to long-term ozone flux observations. We also find that IAV in some dry deposition parameterizations is more sensitive to LAI, while in others it is more sensitive to climate. Comparisons with other published estimates of the IAV of background ozone confirm that ozone dry deposition can be an important part of natural surface ozone variability. Our results demonstrate the importance of ozone dry deposition parameterization choice on surface ozone modelling and the impact of IAV of vd on surface ozone, thus making a strong case for further measurement, evaluation, and model–data integration of ozone dry deposition on different spatiotemporal scales.

Modelling long-term soil organic carbon dynamics under the impact of land cover change and soil redistribution

CATENA ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 151 ◽  
pp. 63-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Bouchoms ◽  
Zhengang Wang ◽  
Veerle Vanacker ◽  
Sebastian Doetterl ◽  
Kristof Van Oost
Keyword(s):  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Carbon Dynamics ◽  
Soil Redistribution ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics

scholarly journals Revising global ozone dry deposition estimates based on a new mechanistic parameterisation for air-sea exchange and the multi-year MACC composition reanalysis

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashok K. Luhar ◽  
Matthew T. Woodhouse ◽  
Ian E. Galbally
Keyword(s):  
Chemical Reaction ◽  
Dry Deposition ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Surface Resistance ◽  
Chemical Reactivity ◽  
Deposition Velocity ◽  
Water Layer ◽  
Turbulent Transfer ◽  
Dominant Term ◽  
Deposition Velocities

Abstract. Dry deposition at the Earth’s surface is an important sink of atmospheric ozone. Currently, dry deposition of ozone to the ocean surface in atmospheric chemistry models has the largest uncertainty compared to deposition to other surface types, with implications for global tropospheric ozone budget and associated radiative forcing. Most models assume that the dominant term of surface resistance in the parameterisation of ozone dry deposition velocity at the oceanic surface is constant. We present a consistent, process-based parameterisation scheme for air-sea exchange in which the surface resistance accounts for the simultaneous waterside processes of ozone solubility, molecular diffusion, turbulent transfer, and a first-order chemical reaction of ozone with dissolved iodide. The new scheme makes the following realistic assumptions: (a) the thickness of the top water layer is of the order of a reaction-diffusion length scale (a few micrometres) within which ozone loss is dominated by chemical reaction and the influence of waterside turbulent transfer is negligible; (b) in the water layer below, both chemical reaction and waterside turbulent transfer act together and are accounted for; and (c) iodide (hence chemical reactivity) is present through the depth of the oceanic mixing layer. The asymptotic behaviour of the new scheme is consistent with the known limits when either chemical reaction or turbulent transfer dominates. It has been incorporated into the ACCESS-UKCA global chemistry-climate model and the results are evaluated against dry deposition velocities from currently best available open-ocean measurements. In order to better quantify the global dry deposition loss and its interannual variability, the modelled 3-h ozone deposition velocities are combined with the 3-h MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) reanalysis ozone for the years 2003–2012. The resulting ozone dry deposition is found to be 98.4 ± 4.5 Tg O3 yr−1 for the ocean and 722.8 ± 20.9 O3 yr−1 globally. The new estimate of the ocean component is approximately a third of the current model estimates. This reduction corresponds to an approximately 20 % decrease in the total global ozone dry deposition, which is equivalent to an increase of approximately 5 % in the modelled tropospheric ozone burden and a similar increase in tropospheric ozone lifetime.

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