scholarly journals On the competition among aerosol number, size and composition in predicting CCN variability: a multi-annual field study in an urbanized desert

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. 6943-6958 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Crosbie ◽  
J.-S. Youn ◽  
B. Balch ◽  
A. Wonaschütz ◽  
T. Shingler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chemical Composition ◽  
Size Distribution ◽  
North American ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Aerosol Size Distribution ◽  
North American Monsoon ◽  
Aerosol Composition ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The North ◽  
Concentration Changes

Abstract. A 2-year data set of measured CCN (cloud condensation nuclei) concentrations at 0.2 % supersaturation is combined with aerosol size distribution and aerosol composition data to probe the effects of aerosol number concentrations, size distribution and composition on CCN patterns. Data were collected over a period of 2 years (2012–2014) in central Tucson, Arizona: a significant urban area surrounded by a sparsely populated desert. Average CCN concentrations are typically lowest in spring (233 cm−3), highest in winter (430 cm−3) and have a secondary peak during the North American monsoon season (July to September; 372 cm−3). There is significant variability outside of seasonal patterns, with extreme concentrations (1 and 99 % levels) ranging from 56 to 1945 cm−3 as measured during the winter, the season with highest variability. Modeled CCN concentrations based on fixed chemical composition achieve better closure in winter, with size and number alone able to predict 82 % of the variance in CCN concentration. Changes in aerosol chemical composition are typically aligned with changes in size and aerosol number, such that hygroscopicity can be parameterized even though it is still variable. In summer, models based on fixed chemical composition explain at best only 41 % (pre-monsoon) and 36 % (monsoon) of the variance. This is attributed to the effects of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production, the competition between new particle formation and condensational growth, the complex interaction of meteorology, regional and local emissions and multi-phase chemistry during the North American monsoon. Chemical composition is found to be an important factor for improving predictability in spring and on longer timescales in winter. Parameterized models typically exhibit improved predictive skill when there are strong relationships between CCN concentrations and the prevailing meteorology and dominant aerosol physicochemical processes, suggesting that similar findings could be possible in other locations with comparable climates and geography.

scholarly journals On the competition among aerosol number, size and composition in predicting CCN variability: a multi-annual field study in an urbanized desert

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 3863-3906
Author(s):  
E. Crosbie ◽  
J.-S. Youn ◽  
B. Balch ◽  
A. Wonaschütz ◽  
T. Shingler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chemical Composition ◽  
Size Distribution ◽  
North American ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Aerosol Size Distribution ◽  
North American Monsoon ◽  
Aerosol Chemistry ◽  
The North ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Concentration Changes

Abstract. A two-year dataset of measured CCN concentrations at 0.2% supersaturation is combined with aerosol size distribution and aerosol chemistry data to probe the effects of aerosol number concentrations, size distribution and composition on CCN patterns. Data have been collected over a period of two years (2012–2014) in central Tucson, Arizona: a significant urban area surrounded by a sparsely populated desert. Average CCN concentrations are typically lowest in spring (233 cm−3), highest in winter (430 cm−3) and have a secondary peak during the North American Monsoon season (July to September; 372 cm−3). There is significant variability outside of seasonal patterns with extreme concentrations (1 and 99% levels) ranging from 56 to 1945 cm−3 as measured during the winter, the season with highest variability. Modeled CCN concentrations based on fixed chemical composition achieve better closure in winter, with size and number alone able to predict 82% of the variance in CCN concentration. Changes in aerosol chemistry are typically aligned with changes in size and aerosol number, such that composition can be parameterized even though it is still variable. In summer, models based on fixed chemical composition explain at best only 41% (pre-monsoon) and 36% (monsoon) of the variance. This is attributed to the effects of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production, the competition between new particle formation and condensational growth, and the complex interaction of meteorology, regional and local emissions, and multi-phase chemistry during the North American Monsoon. Chemical composition is found to be an important factor for improving predictability in spring and on longer timescales in winter. Regimes where parameterized models exhibit improved predictive skill are typically explained by strong relationships between CCN concentrations and the prevailing meteorology and dominant aerosol chemistry mechanisms suggesting that similar findings could be possible in other locations with comparable climates and geography.

scholarly journals Toward Assessing NARCCAP Regional Climate Model Credibility for the North American Monsoon: Future Climate Simulations*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (17) ◽  
pp. 6707-6728 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa S. Bukovsky ◽  
Carlos M. Carrillo ◽  
David J. Gochis ◽  
Dorit M. Hammerling ◽  
Rachel R. McCrary ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North American ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
North American Monsoon ◽  
The North ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract This study presents climate change results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) suite of dynamically downscaled simulations for the North American monsoon system in the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. The focus is on changes in precipitation and the processes driving the projected changes from the regional climate simulations and their driving coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate models. The effect of known biases on the projections is also examined. Overall, there is strong ensemble agreement for a large decrease in precipitation during the monsoon season; however, this agreement and the magnitude of the ensemble-mean change is likely deceiving, as the greatest decreases are produced by the simulations that are the most biased in the baseline/current climate. Furthermore, some of the greatest decreases in precipitation are being driven by changes in processes/phenomena that are less credible (e.g., changes in El Niño–Southern Oscillation, when it is initially not simulated well). In other simulations, the processes driving the precipitation change may be plausible, but other biases (e.g., biases in low-level moisture or precipitation intensity) appear to be affecting the magnitude of the projected changes. The most and least credible simulations are clearly identified, while the other simulations are mixed in their abilities to produce projections of value.

scholarly journals Evaluating Forecast Skills of Moisture from Convective-Permitting WRF-ARW Model during 2017 North American Monsoon Season

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 694 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoforus Bayu Risanto ◽  
Christopher L. Castro ◽  
James M. Moker ◽  
Avelino F. Arellano ◽  
David K. Adams ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
North American Monsoon ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
The North ◽  
Northwestern Mexico

This paper examines the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model forecast to simulate moisture and precipitation during the North American Monsoon GPS Hydrometeorological Network field campaign that took place in 2017. A convective-permitting model configuration performs daily weather forecast simulations for northwestern Mexico and southwestern United States. Model precipitable water vapor (PWV) exhibits wet biases greater than 0.5 mm at the initial forecast hour, and its diurnal cycle is out of phase with time, compared to observations. As a result, the model initiates and terminates precipitation earlier than the satellite and rain gauge measurements, underestimates the westward propagation of the convective systems, and exhibits relatively low forecast skills on the days where strong synoptic-scale forcing features are absent. Sensitivity analysis shows that model PWV in the domain is sensitive to changes in initial PWV at coastal sites, whereas the model precipitation and moisture flux convergence (QCONV) are sensitive to changes in initial PWV at the mountainous sites. Improving the initial physical states, such as PWV, potentially increases the forecast skills.

scholarly journals Evaluation of PERSIANN-CCS Rainfall Measurement Using the NAME Event Rain Gauge Network

2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 469-482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Hong ◽  
David Gochis ◽  
Jiang-tao Cheng ◽  
Kuo-lin Hsu ◽  
Soroosh Sorooshian
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Remotely Sensed ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Space Time ◽  
North American Monsoon ◽  
The North ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Northwestern Mexico ◽  
Rain Gauge Network

Abstract Robust validation of the space–time structure of remotely sensed precipitation estimates is critical to improving their quality and confident application in water cycle–related research. In this work, the performance of the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) precipitation product is evaluated against warm season precipitation observations from the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) Event Rain Gauge Network (NERN) in the complex terrain region of northwestern Mexico. Analyses of hourly and daily precipitation estimates show that the PERSIANN-CCS captures well active and break periods in the early and mature phases of the monsoon season. While the PERSIANN-CCS generally captures the spatial distribution and timing of diurnal convective rainfall, elevation-dependent biases exist, which are characterized by an underestimate in the occurrence of light precipitation at high elevations and an overestimate in the occurrence of precipitation at low elevations. The elevation-dependent biases contribute to a 1–2-h phase shift of the diurnal cycle of precipitation at various elevation bands. For reasons yet to be determined, the PERSIANN-CCS significantly underestimated a few active periods of precipitation during the late or “senescent” phase of the monsoon. Despite these shortcomings, the continuous domain and relatively high spatial resolution of PERSIANN-CCS quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) provide useful characterization of precipitation space–time structures in the North American monsoon region of northwestern Mexico, which should prove useful for hydrological applications.

scholarly journals Chemical composition and aerosol size distribution of the middle mountain range in the Nepal Himalayas during the 2009 pre-monsoon season

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 15629-15670
Author(s):  
P. Shrestha ◽  
A. P. Barros ◽  
A. Khlystov
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Chemical Composition ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Size Distribution ◽  
Elemental Carbon ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Number Concentration ◽  
Water Soluble ◽  
Aerosol Size Distribution ◽  
Aerosol Number Concentration

Abstract. Aerosol particle number size distribution and chemical composition were measured at two low altitude sites, one urban and one relatively pristine valley, in Central Nepal during the 2009 pre-monsoon season (May–June). This is the first time that aerosol size distribution and chemical composition were measured simultaneously at lower elevation in the Middle Himalayan region in Nepal. The aerosol size distribution was measured using a Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS, 14~340 nm), and the chemical composition of the filter samples collected during the field campaign was analyzed in the laboratory. Teflon membrane filters were used for ion chromatography (IC) and water-soluble organic carbon and nitrogen analysis. Quartz fiber filters were used for organic carbon and elemental carbon analysis. Multi-lognormal fits to the measured aerosol size distribution indicated a consistent larger mode around 100 nm which is usually the oldest, most processed background aerosol. The smaller mode was located around 20 nm, which is indicative of fresh but not necessarily local aerosol. The diurnal cycle of the aerosol number concentration showed the presence of two peaks (early morning and evening), during the transitional period of boundary layer growth and collapse. The increase in number concentration during the peak period was observed for the entire size distribution. Although the possible contribution of local emissions in size ranges similar to the larger mode cannot be completely ruled out, another plausible explanation is the mixing of aged elevated aerosol in the residual layer during the morning period as suggested by previous studies. Similarly, the evening time concentration peaks when the boundary layer becomes shallow concurrent with increase in local activity. A decrease in aerosol number concentration was observed during the nighttime with the development of cold (downslope) mountain winds that force the low level warmer air in the valley to rise. The mountain valley wind mechanisms induced by the topography along with the valley geometry appear to have a strong control in the diurnal cycle of the aerosol size distribution. During the sampling period, the chemical composition of PM2.5 was dominated by organic matter at both sites. Organic carbon (OC) comprised the major fraction (64~68%) of the aerosol concentration followed by ionic species (24~26% mainly SO42- and NH4+). Elemental Carbon (EC) compromised 7~10% of the total composition. A large fraction of OC was found to be water soluble (nearly 27% at both sites).

Seasonal Shifts in the North American Monsoon

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (9) ◽  
pp. 1923-1935 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrina Grantz ◽  
Balaji Rajagopalan ◽  
Martyn Clark ◽  
Edith Zagona
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North American ◽  
Gulf Of California ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
North American Monsoon ◽  
Southwestern United States ◽  
Monsoon Period ◽  
The North ◽  
Ocean Conditions

Abstract Analysis is performed on the spatiotemporal attributes of North American monsoon system (NAMS) rainfall in the southwestern United States. Trends in the timing and amount of monsoon rainfall for the period 1948–2004 are examined. The timing of the monsoon cycle is tracked by identifying the Julian day when the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of the seasonal rainfall total have accumulated. Trends are assessed using the robust Spearman rank correlation analysis and the Kendall–Theil slope estimator. Principal component analysis is used to extract the dominant spatial patterns and these are correlated with antecedent land–ocean–atmosphere variables. Results show a significant delay in the beginning, peak, and closing stages of the monsoon in recent decades. The results also show a decrease in rainfall during July and a corresponding increase in rainfall during August and September. Relating these attributes of the summer rainfall to antecedent winter–spring land and ocean conditions leads to the proposal of the following hypothesis: warmer tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and cooler northern Pacific SSTs in the antecedent winter–spring leads to wetter than normal conditions over the desert Southwest (and drier than normal conditions over the Pacific Northwest). This enhanced antecedent wetness delays the seasonal heating of the North American continent that is necessary to establish the monsoonal land–ocean temperature gradient. The delay in seasonal warming in turn delays the monsoon initiation, thus reducing rainfall during the typical early monsoon period (July) and increasing rainfall during the later months of the monsoon season (August and September). While the rainfall during the early monsoon appears to be most modulated by antecedent winter–spring Pacific SST patterns, the rainfall in the later part of the monsoon seems to be driven largely by the near-term SST conditions surrounding the monsoon region along the coast of California and the Gulf of California. The role of antecedent land and ocean conditions in modulating the following summer monsoon appears to be quite significant. This enhances the prospects for long-lead forecasts of monsoon rainfall over the southwestern United States, which could have significant implications for water resources planning and management in this water-scarce region.

scholarly journals Predictability of Evapotranspiration Patterns Using Remotely Sensed Vegetation Dynamics during the North American Monsoon

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiuhong Tang ◽  
Enrique R. Vivoni ◽  
Francisco Muñoz-Arriola ◽  
Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Vegetation Dynamics ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
North American Monsoon ◽  
Onset Date ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Area Index ◽  
The North

Abstract The links between vegetation, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture (SM) are prominent in western Mexico—a region characterized by an abrupt increase in rainfall and ecosystem greenup during the North American monsoon (NAM). Most regional-scale land surface models use climatological vegetation and are therefore unable to capture fully the spatiotemporal changes in these linkages. Interannually varying and climatological leaf area index (LAI) were prescribed, both inferred from the space-borne Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), as the source of vegetation parameter inputs to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model applied over the NAM region for 2001–08. Results at two eddy covariance tower sites for three summer periods were compared and evaluated. Results show that both vegetation greening onset and dormancy dates vary substantially from year to year with a range of more than half a month. The model using climatological LAI tends to predict lower (higher) ET than the model using observed LAI when vegetation greening occurs earlier (later) than the mean greening date. These discrepancies were especially large during approximately two weeks at the beginning of the monsoon. The effect of LAI on ET estimates was about 10% in the Sierra Madre Occidental and 30% in the continental interior. VIC-estimated ET based on interannually varying LAI had high interannual variability at the greening onset and dormancy periods corresponding to the vegetation dynamics. The greening onset date was highly related to ET early in the monsoon season, indicating the potential usefulness of LAI anomalies for predicting early season ET.

scholarly journals Defining Intraseasonal Rainfall Variability within the North American Monsoon

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (17) ◽  
pp. 4243-4253 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phil J. Englehart ◽  
Arthur V. Douglas
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Seasonal Rainfall ◽  
North American Monsoon ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific

Abstract This study provides an empirical description of intraseasonal rainfall variability within the North American monsoon (NAM) region. Applying particular definitions to historical daily rainfall observations, it demonstrates that distinct intraseasonal rainfall modes exist and that these modes differ considerably from the monsoon core region in northwest Sonora (SON), California, to its northward extension in southeast Arizona (AZ). To characterize intraseasonal rainfall variability (ISV), separate P-mode principal component (PC) analyses were performed for SON and AZ. The results indicate that in each area, much of the ISV in rainfall can be described by three orthogonal modes. The correlations between ISV modes and total seasonal rainfall reinforce the notion of differing behaviors between the monsoon’s core and extension. For SON all three ISV modes exhibit significant correlation with seasonal rainfall, with the strongest relationship in evidence for the ISV mode, which is related to rainfall intensity. For AZ, total rainfall exhibits the strongest correlation with the ISV mode, which emphasizes season length and rainfall consistency. Examination of longer-period behavior in the ISV modes indicates that, for SON, there is a positive linear trend in intensity, but a countervailing trend toward a shorter monsoon season along with less consistent rainfall in the form of shorter wet spells. For AZ, the evidence for trend in the ISV modes is not nearly as compelling, though one of the modes appears to exhibit distinct multidecadal variability. This study also evaluates teleconnectivity between ENSO, the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and the NAM’s intraseasonal rainfall variability. Results indicate that part of the intraseasonal rainfall variability in both SON and AZ is connected to ENSO while only SON exhibits a teleconnection with the long-period fluctuations of the PDO.

scholarly journals Effects of Increased Horizontal Resolution on Simulation of the North American Monsoon in the NCAR CAM3: An Evaluation Based on Surface, Satellite, and Reanalysis Data

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (9) ◽  
pp. 1843-1861 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Craig Collier ◽  
Guang J. Zhang
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
The United States ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
North American Monsoon ◽  
Sierra Madre Occidental ◽  
The North ◽  
Sierra Madre ◽  
Monsoon System

Abstract Simulation of the North American monsoon system by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3) is evaluated in its sensitivity to increasing horizontal resolution. For two resolutions, T42 and T85, rainfall is compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite-derived and surface gauge-based rainfall rates over the United States and northern Mexico as well as rainfall accumulations in gauges of the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) Enhanced Rain Gauge Network (NERN) in the Sierra Madre Occidental. Simulated upper-tropospheric mass and wind fields are compared to those from NCEP–NCAR reanalyses. The comparison presented herein demonstrates that tropospheric motions associated with the North American monsoon system are sensitive to increasing the horizontal resolution of the model. An increase in resolution from T42 to T85 results in changes to a region of large-scale midtropospheric descent found north and east of the monsoon anticyclone. Relative to its simulation at T42, this region extends farther south and west at T85. Additionally, at T85, the subsidence is stronger. Consistent with the differences in large-scale descent, the T85 simulation of CAM3 is anomalously dry over Texas and northeastern Mexico during the peak monsoon months. Meanwhile, the geographic distribution of rainfall over the Sierra Madre Occidental region of Mexico is more satisfactorily simulated at T85 than at T42 for July and August. Moisture import into this region is greater at T85 than at T42 during these months. A focused study of the Sierra Madre Occidental region in particular shows that, in the regional-average sense, the timing of the peak of the monsoon is relatively insensitive to the horizontal resolution of the model, while a phase bias in the diurnal cycle of monsoon season precipitation is somewhat reduced in the higher-resolution run. At both resolutions, CAM3 poorly simulates the month-to-month evolution of monsoon rainfall over extreme northwestern Mexico and Arizona, though biases are considerably improved at T85.

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