scholarly journals Sensitivity of simulated CO<sub>2</sub> concentration to sub-annual variations in fossil fuel CO<sub>2</sub> emissions

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 1907-1918 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xia Zhang ◽  
Kevin R. Gurney ◽  
Peter Rayner ◽  
David Baker ◽  
Yu-ping Liu

Abstract. Recent advances in fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emission inventories enable sensitivity tests of simulated atmospheric CO2 concentrations to sub-annual variations in FFCO2 emissions and what this implies for the interpretation of observed CO2. Six experiments are conducted to investigate the potential impact of three cycles of FFCO2 emission variability (diurnal, weekly and monthly) using a global tracer transport model. Results show an annual FFCO2 rectification varying from −1.35 to +0.13 ppm from the combination of all three cycles. This rectification is driven by a large negative diurnal FFCO2 rectification due to the covariation of diurnal FFCO2 emissions and diurnal vertical mixing, as well as a smaller positive seasonal FFCO2 rectification driven by the covariation of monthly FFCO2 emissions and monthly atmospheric transport. The diurnal FFCO2 emissions are responsible for a diurnal FFCO2 concentration amplitude of up to 9.12 ppm at the grid cell scale. Similarly, the monthly FFCO2 emissions are responsible for a simulated seasonal CO2 amplitude of up to 6.11 ppm at the grid cell scale. The impact of the diurnal FFCO2 emissions, when only sampled in the local afternoon, is also important, causing an increase of +1.13 ppmv at the grid cell scale. The simulated CO2 concentration impacts from the diurnally and seasonally varying FFCO2 emissions are centered over large source regions in the Northern Hemisphere, extending to downwind regions. This study demonstrates the influence of sub-annual variations in FFCO2 emissions on simulated CO2 concentration and suggests that inversion studies must take account of these variations in the affected regions.

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (14) ◽  
pp. 20679-20708 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Zhang ◽  
K. R. Gurney ◽  
P. Rayner ◽  
D. Baker ◽  
Y.-P. Liu

Abstract. Recent advances in fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emission inventories enable sensitivity tests of simulated atmospheric CO2 concentrations to sub-annual variations in FFCO2 emissions and what this implies for the interpretation of observed CO2. Six experiments are conducted to investigate the potential impact of three cycles of FFCO2 emission variability (diurnal, weekly and monthly) using a global tracer transport model. Results show an annual FFCO2 rectification varying from −1.35 to +0.13 ppm from the combination of all three cycles. This rectification is driven by a large negative diurnal FFCO2 rectification due to the covariation of diurnal FFCO2 emissions and diurnal vertical mixing, and a smaller positive seasonal FFCO2 rectification driven by the covariation of monthly FFCO2 emissions and monthly atmospheric transport. The diurnal FFCO2 emissions are responsible for a diurnal FFCO2 concentration amplitude of up to 9.12 ppm at the grid cell scale. Similarly, the monthly FFCO2 emissions are responsible for a simulated seasonal CO2 amplitude of up to 6.11 ppm at the grid cell scale. The impact of the diurnal FFCO2 emissions, when only sampled in the local afternoon is also important, causing an increase of +1.13 ppmv at the grid cell scale. The simulated CO2 concentration impacts from the diurnally and seasonally-varying FFCO2 emissions are centered over large source regions in the Northern Hemisphere, extending to downwind regions. This study demonstrates the influence of sub-annual variations in FFCO2 emissions on simulated CO2 concentration and suggests that inversion studies must take account of these variations in the affected regions.


Author(s):  
Ning Zeng

&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;The world-wide lockdown in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in year 2020 led to economic slowdown and large reduction of fossil fuel CO2 emissions 1,2, but it is unclear how much it would reduce atmospheric CO2 concentration, the main driver of climate change, and whether it can be observed. We estimated that a 7.9% reduction in emissions for 4 months would result in a 0.25 ppm decrease in the Northern Hemisphere CO2, an increment that is within the capability of current CO2 analyzers, but is a few times smaller than natural CO2 variabilities caused by weather and the biosphere such as El Nino. We used a state-of-the-art atmospheric transport model to simulate CO2, driven by a new daily fossil fuel emissions dataset and hourly biospheric fluxes from a carbon cycle model forced with observed climate variability. Our results show a 0.13 ppm decrease in atmospheric column CO2 anomaly averaged over 50S-50N for the period February-April 2020 relative to a 10-year climatology. A similar decrease was observed by the carbon satellite GOSAT3. Using model sensitivity experiments, we further found that COVID, the biosphere and weather contributed 54%, 23%, and 23% respectively. In May 2020, the CO2 anomaly continued to decrease and was 0.36 ppm below climatology, mostly due to the COVID reduction and a biosphere that turned from a relative carbon source to carbon sink, while weather impact fluctuated. This seemingly small change stands out as the largest sub-annual anomaly in the last 10 years. Measurements from global ground stations were analyzed. At city scale, on-road CO2 enhancement measured in Beijing shows reduction of 20-30 ppm, consistent with drastically reduced traffic during the lockdown, while station data suggest that the expected COVID signal of 5-10 ppm was swamped by weather-driven variability on multi-day time scales. The ability of our current carbon monitoring systems in detecting the small and short-lasting COVID signal on the background of fossil fuel CO2 accumulated over the last two centuries is encouraging. The COVID-19 pandemic is an unintended experiment whose impact suggests that to keep atmospheric CO2 at a climate-safe level will require sustained effort of similar magnitude and improved accuracy and expanded spatiotemporal coverage of our monitoring systems.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;


2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (20) ◽  
pp. 9981-9992 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Houweling ◽  
I. Aben ◽  
F.-M. Breon ◽  
F. Chevallier ◽  
N. Deutscher ◽  
...  

Abstract. This study presents a synthetic model intercomparison to investigate the importance of transport model errors for estimating the sources and sinks of CO2 using satellite measurements. The experiments were designed for testing the potential performance of the proposed CO2 lidar A-SCOPE, but also apply to other space borne missions that monitor total column CO2. The participating transport models IFS, LMDZ, TM3, and TM5 were run in forward and inverse mode using common a priori CO2 fluxes and initial concentrations. Forward simulations of column averaged CO2 (xCO2) mixing ratios vary between the models by σ=0.5 ppm over the continents and σ=0.27 ppm over the oceans. Despite the fact that the models agree on average on the sub-ppm level, these modest differences nevertheless lead to significant discrepancies in the inverted fluxes of 0.1 PgC/yr per 106 km2 over land and 0.03 PgC/yr per 106 km2 over the ocean. These transport model induced flux uncertainties exceed the target requirement that was formulated for the A-SCOPE mission of 0.02 PgC/yr per 106 km2, and could also limit the overall performance of other CO2 missions such as GOSAT. A variable, but overall encouraging agreement is found in comparison with FTS measurements at Park Falls, Darwin, Spitsbergen, and Bremen, although systematic differences are found exceeding the 0.5 ppm level. Because of this, our estimate of the impact of transport model uncerainty is likely to be conservative. It is concluded that to make use of the remote sensing technique for quantifying the sources and sinks of CO2 not only requires highly accurate satellite instruments, but also puts stringent requirements on the performance of atmospheric transport models. Improving the accuracy of these models should receive high priority, which calls for a closer collaboration between experts in atmospheric dynamics and tracer transport.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shreeya Verma ◽  
Julia Marshall ◽  
Christoph Gerbig ◽  
Christian Roedenbeck ◽  
Kai Uwe Totsche

Abstract. Inaccurate representation of atmospheric processes by transport models is a dominant source of uncertainty in inverse analyses and can lead to large discrepancies in the retrieved flux estimates. We investigate the impact of uncertainties in vertical transport as simulated by atmospheric transport models on fluxes retrieved using vertical profiles from aircraft as an observational constraint. Our numerical experiments are based on synthetic data with realistic spatial and temporal sampling of aircraft measurements. The impact of such uncertainties on the flux retrieved using the ground-based network with those retrieved using the aircraft profiles are compared. We find that the posterior flux retrieved using aircraft profiles is less susceptible to errors in boundary layer height as compared to the ground- based network. This highlights the benefit of utilizing atmospheric observations made onboard aircraft over surface measurements for flux estimation using inverse methods. We further use synthetic vertical profiles of CO2 in an inversion to estimate the potential of these measurements, which will be made available through the IAGOS (In-Service Aircraft for a Global Observing System) project in future, in constraining the regional carbon budget. Our results show that the regions tropical Africa and temperate Eurasia, that are under constrained by the existing surface based network, will benefit the most from these measurements, the reduction of posterior flux uncertainty being about 7 to 10 %.


Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 487 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takashi Chiba ◽  
Yumi Haga ◽  
Makoto Inoue ◽  
Osamu Kiguchi ◽  
Takeshi Nagayoshi ◽  
...  

We have developed a simple measuring system prototype that uses an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and a non-dispersive infrared (NDIR) analyzer to detect regional carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and obtain vertical CO2 distributions. Here, we report CO2 measurement results for the lower troposphere above Ogata Village, Akita Prefecture, Japan (about 40° N, 140° E, approximately −1 m amsl), obtained with this UAV system. The actual flight observations were conducted at 500, 400, 300, 200, 100, and 10 m above the ground, at least once a month during the daytime from February 2018 to February 2019. The raw CO2 values from the NDIR were calibrated by two different CO2 standard gases and high-purity nitrogen (N2) gas (as a CO2 zero gas; 0 ppm). During the observation period, the maximum CO2 concentration was measured in February 2019 and the minimum in August 2018. In all seasons, CO2 concentrations became higher as the flight altitude was increased. The monthly pattern of observed CO2 changes is similar to that generally observed in the Northern Hemisphere as well as to surface CO2 changes simulated by an atmospheric transport model of the Japan Meteorological Agency. It is highly probable that these changes reflect the vegetation distribution around the study area.


2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 7457-7503 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Peylin ◽  
S. Houweling ◽  
M. C. Krol ◽  
U. Karstens ◽  
C. Rödenbeck ◽  
...  

Abstract. Inverse modeling techniques used to quantify surface carbon fluxes commonly assume that the uncertainty of fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions is negligible and that intra-annual variations can be neglected. To investigate these assumptions, we analyzed the differences between four fossil fuel emission maps with spatial and temporal differences over Europe and their impact on the model simulated CO2 concentration. Large temporal flux variations characterize the hourly fields (~40% and ~80% for the seasonal and diurnal cycles, peak-to-peak) and annual country totals differ by 10% on average and up to 40% for some countries (i.e., The Netherlands). These emissions have been prescribed to seven different transport models, resulting in 28 different FFCO2 concentrations fields. The modeled FFCO2 concentration time series at surface sites using time-varying emissions show larger seasonal cycles (+2 ppm at the Hungarian tall tower (HUN)) and smaller diurnal cycles in summer (−1 ppm at HUN) than when using constant emissions. The concentration range spanned by all simulations varies between stations, and is generally larger in winter (up to ~10 ppm peak-to-peak at HUN) than in summer (~5 ppm). The contribution of transport model differences to the simulated concentration std-dev is 2–3 times larger than the contribution of emission differences only, at typical European sites used in global inversions. These contributions to the hourly (monthly) std-dev's amount to ~1.2 (0.8) ppm and ~0.4 (0.3) ppm for transport and emissions, respectively. First comparisons of the modeled concentrations with 14C-based fossil fuel CO2 observations show that the large transport differences still hamper a quantitative evaluation/validation of the emission inventories. Changes in the estimated monthly biosphere flux (Fbio) over Europe, using two inverse modeling approaches, are relatively small (less that 5%) while changes in annual Fbio (up to ~0.15 Gt C/yr) are only slightly smaller than the differences in annual emission totals and around 30% of the mean European ecosystem carbon sink. These results point to an urgent need to improve not only the transport models but also the assumed spatial and temporal distribution of fossil fuel emission maps.


2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 2867-2874 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Zhang ◽  
K. R. Gurney ◽  
P. Rayner ◽  
Y. Liu ◽  
S. Asefi-Najafabady

Abstract. Errors in the specification or utilization of fossil fuel CO2 emissions within carbon budget or atmospheric CO2 inverse studies can alias the estimation of biospheric and oceanic carbon exchange. A key component in the simulation of CO2 concentrations arising from fossil fuel emissions is the spatial distribution of the emission near coastlines. Regridding of fossil fuel CO2 emissions (FFCO2) from fine to coarse grids to enable atmospheric transport simulations can give rise to mismatches between the emissions and simulated atmospheric dynamics which differ over land or water. For example, emissions originally emanating from the land are emitted from a grid cell for which the vertical mixing reflects the roughness and/or surface energy exchange of an ocean surface. We test this potential "dynamical inconsistency" by examining simulated global atmospheric CO2 concentration driven by two different approaches to regridding fossil fuel CO2 emissions. The two approaches are as follows: (1) a commonly used method that allocates emissions to grid cells with no attempt to ensure dynamical consistency with atmospheric transport and (2) an improved method that reallocates emissions to grid cells to ensure dynamically consistent results. Results show large spatial and temporal differences in the simulated CO2 concentration when comparing these two approaches. The emissions difference ranges from −30.3 TgC grid cell−1 yr−1 (−3.39 kgC m−2 yr−1) to +30.0 TgC grid cell−1 yr−1 (+2.6 kgC m−2 yr−1) along coastal margins. Maximum simulated annual mean CO2 concentration differences at the surface exceed ±6 ppm at various locations and times. Examination of the current CO2 monitoring locations during the local afternoon, consistent with inversion modeling system sampling and measurement protocols, finds maximum hourly differences at 38 stations exceed ±0.10 ppm with individual station differences exceeding −32 ppm. The differences implied by not accounting for this dynamical consistency problem are largest at monitoring sites proximal to large coastal urban areas and point sources. These results suggest that studies comparing simulated to observed atmospheric CO2 concentration, such as atmospheric CO2 inversions, must take measures to correct for this potential problem and ensure flux and dynamical consistency.


Author(s):  
Ning Zeng ◽  
Pengfei Han ◽  
Zhiqiang Liu ◽  
Di Liu ◽  
Tomohiro Oda ◽  
...  

Abstract The world-wide lockdown in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in year 2020 led to economic slowdown and large reduction in fossil fuel CO2 emissions, but it is unclear how much it would slow the increasing trend of atmospheric CO2 concentration, the main driver of climate change, and whether this impact can be observed in light of large biosphere and weather variabilities. We used a state-of-the-art atmospheric transport model to simulate CO2, driven by a new daily fossil fuel emissions dataset and hourly biospheric fluxes from a carbon cycle model forced with observed climate variability. Our results show 0.21 ppm decrease in atmospheric column CO2 anomaly in the Northern Hemisphere latitude band 0-45°N (NH45) in March 2020, and an average of 0.14 ppm for the period of February-April 2020, the largest in the last 10 years. A similar decrease was observed by the carbon satellite GOSAT. Using model sensitivity experiments, we further found that COVID and weather variability are the major contributors of this CO2 drawdown, and the biosphere gave a small positive anomaly. Measurements at marine boundary layer stations such as Hawaii exhibits 1-2 ppm anomalies, mostly due to weather and the biosphere. At city scale, on-road CO2 enhancement measured in Beijing shows reduction of 20-30 ppm, consistent with drastically reduced traffic during COVID lockdown. A stepwise drop of 20 ppm at the city-wide lockdown was observed in the city of Chengdu. The ability of our current carbon monitoring systems in detecting the small and short-lasting COVID signal on the background of fossil fuel CO2 accumulated over the last two centuries is encouraging. The COVID-19 pandemic is an unintended experiment. Its impact suggests that to keep atmospheric CO2 at a climate-safe level will require sustained effort of similar magnitude and improved accuracy and expanded spatiotemporal coverage of our monitoring systems.


2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 5665-5675 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shreeya Verma ◽  
Julia Marshall ◽  
Christoph Gerbig ◽  
Christian Rödenbeck ◽  
Kai Uwe Totsche

Abstract. Inaccurate representation of atmospheric processes by transport models is a dominant source of uncertainty in inverse analyses and can lead to large discrepancies in the retrieved flux estimates. We investigate the impact of uncertainties in vertical transport as simulated by atmospheric transport models on fluxes retrieved using vertical profiles from aircraft as an observational constraint. Our numerical experiments are based on synthetic data with realistic spatial and temporal sampling of aircraft measurements. The impact of such uncertainties on the flux retrieved using the ground-based network and those retrieved using the aircraft profiles are compared. We find that the posterior flux retrieved using aircraft profiles is less susceptible to errors in boundary layer height, compared to the ground-based network. This finding highlights a benefit of utilizing atmospheric observations made onboard aircraft over surface measurements for flux estimation using inverse methods. We further use synthetic vertical profiles of CO2 in an inversion to estimate the potential of these measurements, which will be made available through the IAGOS (In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System) project in the future, in constraining the regional carbon budget. Our results show that the regions of tropical Africa and temperate Eurasia, that are under-constrained by the existing surface-based network, will benefit the most from these measurements, with a reduction of posterior flux uncertainty of about 7 to 10 %.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. N. Koffi ◽  
P. Bergamaschi ◽  
U. Karstens ◽  
M. Krol ◽  
A. Segers ◽  
...  

Abstract. We evaluate the capability of the global atmospheric transport model TM5 to reproduce observations of the boundary layer dynamics and the associated variability of trace gases close to the surface, using radon (222Rn), which is an excellent tracer for vertical mixing owing to its short lifetime (half-life) of 3.82 days. Focusing on the European scale, we compare the boundary layer height (BLH) in the TM5 model with observations from the NOAA Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) and in addition with ceilometer measurements at Cabauw (The Netherlands) and lidar BLH retrievals at Trainou (France). Furthermore, we compare TM5 simulations of 222Rn activity concentrations, using a novel, process-based 222Rn flux map over Europe (Karstens et al., 2015), with quasi-continuous 222Rn measurements from 10 European monitoring stations. The TM5 model reproduces relatively well the daytime BLH (within ~ 10–20 % for most of the stations), except for coastal sites, for which differences are usually larger due to model representation errors. During night, TM5 overestimates the shallow nocturnal BLHs, especially for the very low observed BLHs (< 100 m) during summer. The 222Rn activity concentration simulations based on the new 222Rn flux map show significant improvements especially regarding the average seasonal variability, compared to simulations using constant 222Rn fluxes. Nevertheless, the (relative) differences between simulated and observed daytime minimum 222Rn activity concentrations are larger for several stations (on the order of 50 %) compared to the (relative) differences between simulated and observed BLH at noon. Although the nocturnal BLH is often higher in the model than observed, simulated 222Rn nighttime maxima are larger at several continental stations, which points to potential deficiencies of TM5 to correctly simulate the vertical gradients within the nocturnal boundary layer, limitations of the 222Rn flux map, or issues related to the definition of the nocturnal BLH. At several stations the simulated decrease of 222Rn activity concentrations in the morning is faster than observed. In addition, simulated vertical 222Rn activity concentration gradients at Cabauw decrease faster than observations during the morning transition period, and are in general lower than observed gradients during daytime, which points to too fast vertical mixing in the TM5 boundary layer during daytime. Furthermore, the capability of the TM5 model to simulate the diurnal BLH cycle is limited due to the current coarse temporal resolution (3 hr/6 hr) of the TM5 input meteorology. Additionally, we analyze the impact of a new treatment of convection in TM5, based on the ECMWF reanalysis, leading to overall significantly lower (on the order of ~ 20 %) surface 222Rn activity concentrations during daytime compared to the current default convection scheme based on Tiedtke (1989). However, the performance of the model simulations compared to the 222Rn observations is very similar in terms of root mean square and correlation coefficient for both convection schemes.


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