scholarly journals Impact of major volcanic eruptions on stratospheric water vapour

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. 6547-6562 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Löffler ◽  
Sabine Brinkop ◽  
Patrick Jöckel
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Integrated Modelling ◽  
South Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Mount Pinatubo ◽  
Long Wave ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions can have a significant impact on the Earth's weather and climate system. Besides the subsequent tropospheric changes, the stratosphere is also influenced by large eruptions. Here changes in stratospheric water vapour after the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichón in Mexico in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo on the Philippines in 1991 are investigated with chemistry–climate model simulations. This study is based on two simulations with specified dynamics of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Hamburg – Modular Earth Submodel System (ECHAM/MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, performed within the Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) project, of which only one includes the long-wave volcanic forcing through prescribed aerosol optical properties. The results show a significant increase in stratospheric water vapour induced by the eruptions, resulting from increased heating rates and the subsequent changes in stratospheric and tropopause temperatures in the tropics. The tropical vertical advection and the South Asian summer monsoon are identified as sources for the additional water vapour in the stratosphere. Additionally, volcanic influences on tropospheric water vapour and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are evident, if the long-wave forcing is strong enough. Our results are corroborated by additional sensitivity simulations of the Mount Pinatubo period with reduced nudging and reduced volcanic aerosol extinction.

scholarly journals Impact of major volcanic eruptions on stratospheric water vapour

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (23) ◽  
pp. 34407-34437
Author(s):  
M. Löffler ◽  
S. Brinkop ◽  
P. Jöckel
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Integrated Modelling ◽  
South Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Heating Rates ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions can have significant impact on the earth's weather and climate system. Besides the subsequent tropospheric changes also the stratosphere is influenced by large eruptions. Here changes in stratospheric water vapour after the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichón in Mexico in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo on the Philippines in 1991 are investigated with chemistry-climate model simulations. This study is based on two simulations with specified dynamics of the EMAC model, performed within the Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) project, of which only one includes the volcanic forcing through prescribed aerosol optical properties. The results show a significant increase in stratospheric water vapour after the eruptions, resulting from increased heating rates and the subsequent changes in stratospheric and tropopause temperatures in the tropics. The tropical vertical advection and the South Asian summer monsoon are identified as important sources for the additional water vapour in the stratosphere. Additionally, volcanic influences on the tropospheric water vapour and ENSO are evident.

scholarly journals Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 5015-5061
Author(s):  
James Keeble ◽  
Birgit Hassler ◽  
Antara Banerjee ◽  
Ramiro Checa-Garcia ◽  
Gabriel Chiodo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here, we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre-industrial period (1850) to the end of the 21st century in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multi-model mean and observations for total column ozone (TCO), although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global mean TCO has increased from ∼ 300 DU in 1850 to ∼ 305 DU in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the use and emission of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960s values by the middle of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to be ∼ 10 DU higher than the 1960s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to return to the 1960s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960s values, either through reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation under other Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). In contrast to TCO, there is poorer agreement between the CMIP6 multi-model mean and observed lower stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios, with the CMIP6 multi-model mean underestimating observed water vapour mixing ratios by ∼ 0.5 ppmv at 70 hPa. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have increased by ∼ 0.5 ppmv from the pre-industrial to the present-day period and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21st century. The largest increases (∼ 2 ppmv) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Tropical lower stratospheric water vapour, and to a lesser extent TCO, shows large variations following explosive volcanic eruptions.

scholarly journals Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapor changes in CMIP6 models from 1850–2100

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Keeble ◽  
Birgit Hassler ◽  
Antara Banerjee ◽  
Ramiro Checa-Garcia ◽  
Gabriel Chiodo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre- industrial (1850) to the end of the 21st century in CMIP6 models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global total column ozone (TCO) has increased from ∼300 DU in 1850 to ∼305 DU in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the use and emission of halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960s values by the middle of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to be ∼10 DU higher than the 1960s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to return to the 1960s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960s values, either through reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation under other SSPs. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have increased by ∼0.5 ppmv from the pre-industrial to the present day and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21st century. The largest increases (∼2 ppmv) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Both TCO and tropical lower stratospheric water vapour show large variability following explosive volcanic eruptions.

scholarly journals The climatic effects of the direct injection of water vapour into the stratosphere by large volcanic eruptions

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (16) ◽  
pp. 6109-6118 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. M. Joshi ◽  
G. S. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Direct Injection ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Pyroclastic Flows ◽  
Aerosol Formation ◽  
Climatic Effects ◽  
Climatic Cooling ◽  
Large Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. We describe a novel mechanism that can significantly lower the amplitude of the climatic response to certain large volcanic eruptions and examine its impact with a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. If sufficiently large amounts of water vapour enter the stratosphere, a climatically significant amount of water vapour can be left over in the lower stratosphere after the eruption, even after sulphate aerosol formation. This excess stratospheric humidity warms the tropospheric climate, and acts to balance the climatic cooling induced by the volcanic aerosol, especially because the humidity anomaly lasts for a period that is longer than the residence time of aerosol in the stratosphere. In particular, northern hemisphere high latitude cooling is reduced in magnitude. We discuss this mechanism in the context of the discrepancy between the observed and modelled cooling following the Krakatau eruption in 1883. We hypothesize that moist coignimbrite plumes caused by pyroclastic flows travelling over ocean rather than land, resulting from an eruption close enough to the ocean, might provide the additional source of stratospheric water vapour.

scholarly journals Water vapour variability in the high-latitude upper troposphere – Part 2: Impact of volcanic eruptions

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 2207-2219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher E. Sioris ◽  
Jason Zou ◽  
C. Thomas McElroy ◽  
Chris D. Boone ◽  
Patrick E. Sheese ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
The Fourier Transform ◽  
A Minor ◽  
Southern High Latitude ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of volcanic eruptions on water vapour in the high-latitude upper troposphere is studied using deseasonalized time series based on observations by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) water vapour sensors, namely MAESTRO (Measurements of Aerosol Extinction in the Stratosphere and Troposphere Retrieved by Occultation) and the Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS). The two eruptions with the greatest impact on the high-latitude upper troposphere during the time frame of this satellite-based remote sensing mission are chosen. The Puyehue–Cordón Caulle volcanic eruption in June 2011 was the most explosive in the past 24 years and is shown to be able to account for the observed (50 ± 12) % increase in water vapour in the southern high-latitude upper troposphere in July 2011 after a minor adjustment for the simultaneous influence of the Antarctic oscillation. Eyjafjallajökull erupted in the spring of 2010, increasing water vapour in the upper troposphere at northern high latitudes significantly for a period of  ∼  1 month. These findings imply that extratropical volcanic eruptions in windy environments can lead to significant perturbations to high-latitude upper tropospheric humidity mostly due to entrainment of lower tropospheric moisture by wind-blown plumes. The Puyehue–Cordón Caulle eruption must be taken into account to properly determine the magnitude of the trend in southern high-latitude upper tropospheric water vapour over the last decade.

scholarly journals Water vapour variability in the high-latitude upper troposphere – Part 2: Impact of volcanic emissions

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (18) ◽  
pp. 25873-25905
Author(s):  
C. E. Sioris ◽  
J. Zou ◽  
C. T. McElroy ◽  
C. D. Boone ◽  
P. E. Sheese ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Volcanic Emissions ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of volcanic eruptions on water vapour in the region of the high latitude tropopause is studied using deseasonalized time series based on observations by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) water vapour sensors, namely MAESTRO (Measurements of Aerosol Extinction in the Stratosphere and Troposphere Retrieved by Occultation) and the Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS). The three eruptions with the greatest impact on the high latitude upper troposphere during the time frame of this satellite-based remote sensing mission are chosen. The Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcanic eruption in June 2011 was the most explosive eruption in the past 24 years and resulted in an observed (50 ± 12) % increase in water vapour in the southern high-latitude upper troposphere in July 2011 that persisted into September 2011. A pair of Northern Hemisphere volcanoes, namely Eyjafjallajökull and Nabro, erupted in 2010 and 2011 respectively, increasing water vapour in the upper troposphere at northern high latitudes significantly for a period of ~ 3 months following each eruption. Both had a volcanic explosivity index of 4. Nabro led to a statistically significant increase of ~ 1 ppm in lower stratospheric (13.5–15.5 km) water vapour at northern high-latitudes (60–90° N) in September 2011, when the brunt of its plume arrived in the Arctic. These findings imply that steam emitted into the high-latitude, upper troposphere during volcanic eruptions must be taken into account to properly determine the magnitude of the trend in water vapour over the last decade.

scholarly journals The Impact of Volcanic Eruptions of Different Magnitude on Stratospheric Water Vapour in the Tropics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clarissa Alicia Kroll ◽  
Sally Dacie ◽  
Alon Azoulay ◽  
Hauke Schmidt ◽  
Claudia Timmreck
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Point Temperature ◽  
Historical Simulation ◽  
Cold Point ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions increase the stratospheric water vapour (SWV) entry via long wave heating through the aerosol layer in the cold point region, and this additional SWV alters the atmospheric energy budget. We analyze tropical volcanic eruptions of different eruption strengths with sulfur (S) injections ranging from 2.5 Tg S up to 40 Tg S using EVAens, the 100-member ensemble of the Max Planck Institute – Earth System Model in its low resolution configuration (MPI-ESM-LR) with artificial volcanic forcing generated by the Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA) tool. Significant increases in SWV are found for the mean over all ensemble members from 2.5 Tg S onward ranging between [5,160] %, while for single ensemble members the standard deviation between the control run members (0 Tg S) is larger than SWV increase of single ensemble members for the eruption strengths up to 20 Tg S. A historical simulation using observation based forcing files of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, which was estimated to have emitted (7.5 ± 2.5) Tg S, returns SWV increases slightly higher than the 10 Tg S EVAens simulations due to differences in the aerosol profile shape. An additional amplification of the tape recorder signal is also apparent, which is not present in the 10 Tg S run. These differences underline that it is not only the eruption volume, but also the aerosol layer shape and location with respect to the cold point that have to be considered for post-eruption SWV increases. The additional tropical clear sky SWV forcing for the different eruption strengths amounts to [0.02, 0.65] W/m2, ranging between [2.5, 4] percent of the aerosol radiative forcing in the 10 Tg S scenario. The monthly cold point temperature increases leading to the SWV increase are not linear with respect to AOD nor is the corresponding SWV forcing, among others, due to hysteresis effects, seasonal dependencies, aerosol profile heights, and feedbacks. However, knowledge of the cold point temperature increase allows for an estimation of SWV increases with a 12 % increase per Kelvin increase in mean cold point temperature, and yearly averages show an approximately linear behaviour in the cold point warming and SWV forcing with respect to the AOD.

scholarly journals Complex network approach for detecting tropical cyclones

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shraddha Gupta ◽  
Niklas Boers ◽  
Florian Pappenberger ◽  
Jürgen Kurths
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Complex Network ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Network Approach ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Level Pressure ◽  
Climate Networks

AbstractTropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most destructive natural hazards that pose a serious threat to society, particularly to those in the coastal regions. In this work, we study the temporal evolution of the regional weather conditions in relation to the occurrence of TCs using climate networks. Climate networks encode the interactions among climate variables at different locations on the Earth’s surface, and in particular, time-evolving climate networks have been successfully applied to study different climate phenomena at comparably long time scales, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, different monsoon systems, or the climatic impacts of volcanic eruptions. Here, we develop and apply a complex network approach suitable for the investigation of the relatively short-lived TCs. We show that our proposed methodology has the potential to identify TCs and their tracks from mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data. We use the ERA5 reanalysis MSLP data to construct successive networks of overlapping, short-length time windows for the regions under consideration, where we focus on the north Indian Ocean and the tropical north Atlantic Ocean. We compare the spatial features of various topological properties of the network, and the spatial scales involved, in the absence and presence of a cyclone. We find that network measures such as degree and clustering exhibit significant signatures of TCs and have striking similarities with their tracks. The study of the network topology over time scales relevant to TCs allows us to obtain crucial insights into the effects of TCs on the spatial connectivity structure of sea-level pressure fields.

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