scholarly journals The climatic effects of the direct injection of water vapour into the stratosphere by large volcanic eruptions

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (16) ◽  
pp. 6109-6118 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. M. Joshi ◽  
G. S. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Direct Injection ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Pyroclastic Flows ◽  
Aerosol Formation ◽  
Climatic Effects ◽  
Climatic Cooling ◽  
Large Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. We describe a novel mechanism that can significantly lower the amplitude of the climatic response to certain large volcanic eruptions and examine its impact with a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. If sufficiently large amounts of water vapour enter the stratosphere, a climatically significant amount of water vapour can be left over in the lower stratosphere after the eruption, even after sulphate aerosol formation. This excess stratospheric humidity warms the tropospheric climate, and acts to balance the climatic cooling induced by the volcanic aerosol, especially because the humidity anomaly lasts for a period that is longer than the residence time of aerosol in the stratosphere. In particular, northern hemisphere high latitude cooling is reduced in magnitude. We discuss this mechanism in the context of the discrepancy between the observed and modelled cooling following the Krakatau eruption in 1883. We hypothesize that moist coignimbrite plumes caused by pyroclastic flows travelling over ocean rather than land, resulting from an eruption close enough to the ocean, might provide the additional source of stratospheric water vapour.

scholarly journals The climatic effects of the direct injection of water vapour into the stratosphere by large volcanic eruptions

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 5447-5464 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. M. Joshi ◽  
G. S. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Direct Injection ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Aerosol Formation ◽  
Climatic Response ◽  
Sulphate Aerosol ◽  
Climatic Effects ◽  
Climatic Cooling ◽  
Large Volcanic Eruptions

Abstract. We describe a novel mechanism that can significantly lower the amplitude of the climatic response to certain large volcanic eruptions. The proximity of oceans to some volcanoes can cause significant entrainment of water into coignimbrite clouds during the eruption. If sufficiently large amounts of this entrained water vapour enter the stratosphere, a climatically significant amount of water vapour can be left over in the lower stratosphere after the eruption, even after sulphate aerosol formation. This excess stratospheric humidity warms the climate, and acts to balance the climatic cooling induced by the volcanic aerosol, especially because the humidity anomaly lasts for a period that is longer that the residence time of aerosol in the stratosphere. In particular, Northern Hemisphere cooling is reduced in magnitude. We discuss this mechanism in the context of the discrepancy between the observed and modelled cooling following the Krakatau eruption in 1883.

scholarly journals Impact of major volcanic eruptions on stratospheric water vapour

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (23) ◽  
pp. 34407-34437
Author(s):  
M. Löffler ◽  
S. Brinkop ◽  
P. Jöckel
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Integrated Modelling ◽  
South Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Heating Rates ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions can have significant impact on the earth's weather and climate system. Besides the subsequent tropospheric changes also the stratosphere is influenced by large eruptions. Here changes in stratospheric water vapour after the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichón in Mexico in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo on the Philippines in 1991 are investigated with chemistry-climate model simulations. This study is based on two simulations with specified dynamics of the EMAC model, performed within the Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) project, of which only one includes the volcanic forcing through prescribed aerosol optical properties. The results show a significant increase in stratospheric water vapour after the eruptions, resulting from increased heating rates and the subsequent changes in stratospheric and tropopause temperatures in the tropics. The tropical vertical advection and the South Asian summer monsoon are identified as important sources for the additional water vapour in the stratosphere. Additionally, volcanic influences on the tropospheric water vapour and ENSO are evident.

scholarly journals Simulation of the isotopic composition of stratospheric water vapour – Part 1: Description and evaluation of the EMAC model

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. 5537-5555 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Eichinger ◽  
P. Jöckel ◽  
S. Brinkop ◽  
M. Werner ◽  
S. Lossow
Keyword(s):  
Isotopic Composition ◽  
Water Vapour ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Isotope Ratios ◽  
Physical Fractionation ◽  
Water Isotopologues ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. This modelling study aims at an improved understanding of the processes that determine the water vapour budget in the stratosphere by means of the investigation of water isotope ratios. An additional (and separate from the actual) hydrological cycle has been introduced into the chemistry–climate model EMAC, including the water isotopologues HDO and H218O and their physical fractionation processes. Additionally an explicit computation of the contribution of methane oxidation to H2O and HDO has been incorporated. The model expansions allow detailed analyses of water vapour and its isotope ratio with respect to deuterium throughout the stratosphere and in the transition region to the troposphere. In order to assure the correct representation of the water isotopologues in the model's hydrological cycle, the expanded system has been evaluated in several steps. The physical fractionation effects have been evaluated by comparison of the simulated isotopic composition of precipitation with measurements from a ground-based network (GNIP) and with the results from the isotopologue-enabled general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso. The model's representation of the chemical HDO precursor CH3D in the stratosphere has been confirmed by a comparison with chemical transport models (1-D, CHEM2D) and measurements from radiosonde flights. Finally, the simulated stratospheric HDO and the isotopic composition of water vapour have been evaluated, with respect to retrievals from three different satellite instruments (MIPAS, ACE-FTS, SMR). Discrepancies in stratospheric water vapour isotope ratios between two of the three satellite retrievals can now partly be explained.

scholarly journals Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 5015-5061
Author(s):  
James Keeble ◽  
Birgit Hassler ◽  
Antara Banerjee ◽  
Ramiro Checa-Garcia ◽  
Gabriel Chiodo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here, we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre-industrial period (1850) to the end of the 21st century in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multi-model mean and observations for total column ozone (TCO), although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global mean TCO has increased from ∼ 300 DU in 1850 to ∼ 305 DU in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the use and emission of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960s values by the middle of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to be ∼ 10 DU higher than the 1960s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to return to the 1960s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960s values, either through reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation under other Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). In contrast to TCO, there is poorer agreement between the CMIP6 multi-model mean and observed lower stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios, with the CMIP6 multi-model mean underestimating observed water vapour mixing ratios by ∼ 0.5 ppmv at 70 hPa. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have increased by ∼ 0.5 ppmv from the pre-industrial to the present-day period and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21st century. The largest increases (∼ 2 ppmv) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Tropical lower stratospheric water vapour, and to a lesser extent TCO, shows large variations following explosive volcanic eruptions.

scholarly journals The role of methane in projections of 21st century stratospheric water vapour

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Revell ◽  
Andrea Stenke ◽  
Eugene Rozanov ◽  
William Ball ◽  
Stefan Lossow ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Methane Oxidation ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Radiative Balance ◽  
Canonical Representative ◽  
Cold Point ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. Stratospheric water vapour (SWV) is an important component of the Earth's atmosphere as it affects both radiative balance and the chemistry of the atmosphere. Key processes driving changes in SWV through the 21st century include dehydration of air masses transiting the cold-point tropopause (CPT) and methane oxidation. Increasing surface temperatures may strengthen the Brewer-Dobson circulation, such that more methane is transported into the stratosphere where it can be oxidised to SWV. We use a chemistry-climate model to simulate changes in SWV through the 21st century following the four canonical Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Furthermore, we quantify the contribution that methane oxidation makes to SWV following each of the RCPs. The methane contribution to SWV maximises in the upper stratosphere, however modelled SWV trends are found to be driven predominantly by warming of the CPT and strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation rather than by increasing methane oxidation. SWV changes by −5 % to 60 % (depending on the location in the atmosphere and emissions scenario) and increases in the lower stratosphere in all RCPs through the 21st century. Because the lower stratosphere is where water vapour radiative forcing maximises, SWV's influence on surface climate is also expected to increase through the 21st century.

scholarly journals Simulation of the isotopic composition of stratospheric water vapour – Part 1: Description and evaluation of the EMAC model

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (17) ◽  
pp. 23807-23846 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Eichinger ◽  
P. Jöckel ◽  
S. Brinkop ◽  
M. Werner ◽  
S. Lossow
Keyword(s):  
Isotopic Composition ◽  
Water Vapour ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Isotope Ratios ◽  
Physical Fractionation ◽  
Water Isotopologues ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. This modelling study aims on an improved understanding of the processes, that determine the water vapour budget in the stratosphere by means of the investigation of water isotope ratios. At first, a separate hydrological cycle has been introduced into the chemistry-climate model EMAC, including the water isotopologues HDO and H218O and their physical fractionation processes. Additionally an explicit computation of the contribution of methane oxidation to HDO has been incorporated. The model expansions allow detailed analyses of water vapour and its isotope ratio with respect to deuterium throughout the stratosphere and in the transition region to the troposphere. In order to assure the correct representation of the water isotopologues in the model's hydrological cycle, the expanded system has been evaluated in several steps. The physical fractionation effects have been evaluated by comparison of the simulated isotopic composition of precipitation with measurements from a ground-based network (GNIP) and with the results from the isotopologue-enabled general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso. The model's representation of the chemical HDO precursor CH3D in the stratosphere has been confirmed by a comparison with chemical transport models (CHEM1D, CHEM2D) and measurements from radiosonde flights. Finally, the simulated stratospheric HDO and the isotopic composition of water vapour have been evaluated, with respect to retrievals from three different satellite instruments (MIPAS, ACE-FTS, SMR). Discrepancies in stratospheric water vapour isotope ratios between two of the three satellite retrievals can now partly be explained.

scholarly journals Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapor changes in CMIP6 models from 1850–2100

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Keeble ◽  
Birgit Hassler ◽  
Antara Banerjee ◽  
Ramiro Checa-Garcia ◽  
Gabriel Chiodo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre- industrial (1850) to the end of the 21st century in CMIP6 models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global total column ozone (TCO) has increased from ∼300 DU in 1850 to ∼305 DU in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the use and emission of halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960s values by the middle of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to be ∼10 DU higher than the 1960s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to return to the 1960s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960s values, either through reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation under other SSPs. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have increased by ∼0.5 ppmv from the pre-industrial to the present day and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21st century. The largest increases (∼2 ppmv) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Both TCO and tropical lower stratospheric water vapour show large variability following explosive volcanic eruptions.

Long-term changes in stratospheric water vapour and its implications for climate

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michaela I. Hegglin
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Theoretical Understanding ◽  
Radiative Balance ◽  
Surface Climate ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

<p>Water vapour is the most important natural greenhouse gas in the atmosphere and provides a positive feedback to the climate forcing from carbon dioxide. Water vapour is also the source of hydroxyl (OH) which controls the lifetime of shorter-lived pollutants and long-lived greenhouse gases. Despite the importance of water vapour to chemistry and the radiative balance of the atmosphere, its observed long-term changes in the stratosphere are not well understood, and may even conflict with the theoretical understanding of its drivers. </p><p>I here present a new climate data record of stratospheric water vapour developed within the ESA Water Vapour Climate Change Initiative and discuss recent changes in stratospheric water vapour concentrations in the light of earlier observational studies, modelling results from the SPARC Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, and our theoretical understanding of its drivers. In addition, the radiative forcing of surface climate and inferred changes in the Brewer-Dobson Circulation will be highlighted. </p>

scholarly journals Impact of major volcanic eruptions on stratospheric water vapour

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. 6547-6562 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Löffler ◽  
Sabine Brinkop ◽  
Patrick Jöckel
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Integrated Modelling ◽  
South Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Mount Pinatubo ◽  
Long Wave ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions can have a significant impact on the Earth's weather and climate system. Besides the subsequent tropospheric changes, the stratosphere is also influenced by large eruptions. Here changes in stratospheric water vapour after the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichón in Mexico in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo on the Philippines in 1991 are investigated with chemistry–climate model simulations. This study is based on two simulations with specified dynamics of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Hamburg – Modular Earth Submodel System (ECHAM/MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, performed within the Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) project, of which only one includes the long-wave volcanic forcing through prescribed aerosol optical properties. The results show a significant increase in stratospheric water vapour induced by the eruptions, resulting from increased heating rates and the subsequent changes in stratospheric and tropopause temperatures in the tropics. The tropical vertical advection and the South Asian summer monsoon are identified as sources for the additional water vapour in the stratosphere. Additionally, volcanic influences on tropospheric water vapour and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are evident, if the long-wave forcing is strong enough. Our results are corroborated by additional sensitivity simulations of the Mount Pinatubo period with reduced nudging and reduced volcanic aerosol extinction.

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