scholarly journals The microphysics of clouds over the Antarctic Peninsula – Part 2: modelling aspects within Polar WRF

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (17) ◽  
pp. 10195-10221 ◽  
Author(s):  
Constantino Listowski ◽  
Tom Lachlan-Cope
Keyword(s):  
Liquid Phase ◽  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Supercooled Liquid ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Single Moment ◽  
Double Moment ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. The first intercomparisons of cloud microphysics schemes implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale atmospheric model (version 3.5.1) are performed on the Antarctic Peninsula using the polar version of WRF (Polar WRF) at 5 km resolution, along with comparisons to the British Antarctic Survey's aircraft measurements (presented in part 1 of this work; Lachlan-Cope et al., 2016). This study follows previous works suggesting the misrepresentation of the cloud thermodynamic phase in order to explain large radiative biases derived at the surface in Polar WRF continent-wide (at 15 km or coarser horizontal resolution) and in the Polar WRF-based operational forecast model Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) over the Larsen C Ice Shelf at 5 km horizontal resolution. Five cloud microphysics schemes are investigated: the WRF single-moment five-class scheme (WSM5), the WRF double-moment six-class scheme (WDM6), the Morrison double-moment scheme, the Thompson scheme, and the Milbrandt–Yau double-moment seven-class scheme. WSM5 (used in AMPS) and WDM6 (an upgrade version of WSM5) lead to the largest biases in observed supercooled liquid phase and surface radiative biases. The schemes simulating clouds in closest agreement to the observations are the Morrison, Thompson, and Milbrandt schemes for their better average prediction of occurrences of clouds and cloud phase. Interestingly, those three schemes are also the ones allowing for significant reduction of the longwave surface radiative bias over the Larsen C Ice Shelf (eastern side of the peninsula). This is important for surface energy budget consideration with Polar WRF since the cloud radiative effect is more pronounced in the infrared over icy surfaces. Overall, the Morrison scheme compares better to the cloud observation and radiation measurements. The fact that WSM5 and WDM6 are single-moment parameterizations for the ice crystals is responsible for their lesser ability to model the supercooled liquid clouds compared to the other schemes. However, our investigation shows that all the schemes fail at simulating the supercooled liquid mass at some temperatures (altitudes) where observations show evidence of its persistence. An ice nuclei parameterization relying on both temperature and aerosol content like DeMott et al. (2010) (not currently used in WRF cloud schemes) is in best agreement with the observations, at temperatures and aerosol concentration characteristic of the Antarctic Peninsula where the primary ice production occurs (part 1), compared to parameterization only relying on the atmospheric temperature (used by the WRF cloud schemes). Overall, a realistic double-moment ice microphysics implementation is needed for the correct representation of the supercooled liquid phase in Antarctic clouds. Moreover, a more realistic ice-nucleating particle alone is not enough to improve the cloud modelling, and water vapour and temperature biases also need to be further investigated and reduced.

scholarly journals The Microphysics of Clouds over the Antarctic Peninsula – Part 2: modelling aspects within Polar WRF

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Constantino Listowski ◽  
Tom Lachlan-Cope
Keyword(s):  
Liquid Phase ◽  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Supercooled Liquid ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Nuclei ◽  
Double Moment ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. The first intercomparisons of cloud microphysics schemes implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale atmospheric model (version 3.5.1) are performed in the Antarctic Peninsula using the polar version of WRF (Polar WRF) at 5 km resolution, along with comparisons to the British Antarctic Survey's aircraft measurements (presented in Part 1 of this work, Lachlan-Cope et al., 2016). This study follows previous works suggesting the misrepresentation of the cloud thermodynamic phase in order to explain large radiative biases derived at the surface in Polar WRF continent-wide, and in the Polar WRF-based operational forecast model Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) over the Larsen C Ice shelf. Several cloud microphysics schemes are investigated: the WRF Single-Moment 5-class scheme (WSM5), the WRF Double-Moment 6-class scheme (WDM6), the Morrison double-moment scheme, the Thompson scheme, and the Milbrandt- Yau Double-Moment 7-class scheme. WSM5 used in AMPS struggles the most to capture the observed supercooled liquid phase mainly because of their ice nuclei parameterisation overestimating the number of activated crystals, while other micro- physics schemes (but not WSM5's upgraded version, WDM6) manage much better to do so. The best performing scheme is the Morrison scheme for its better average prediction of occurrences of clouds, and cloud phase, as well as its lowest surface radiative bias over the Larsen C ice shelf in the infrared. This is important for surface energy budget consideration with Polar WRF since the cloud radiative effect is more pronounced in the infrared over icy surfaces. However, our investigation shows that all the schemes fail at simulating the supercooled liquid mass at some temperatures (altitudes) where observations show evidence of its persistence. An ice nuclei parameterisation relying on both temperature and aerosol content like DeMott et al. (2010) (not currently used in WRF cloud schemes) is in best agreement with the observations, at temperatures and aerosol concentration characteristic of the Antarctic Peninsula where the primary ice production occurs (Part 1), compared to parame- terisation only relying on the atmospheric temperature (used by the WRF cloud schemes). Overall, a realistic ice microphysics implementation is paramount to the correct representation of the supercooled liquid phase in Antarctic clouds.

scholarly journals Downslope föhn winds over the Antarctic Peninsula and their effect on the Larsen ice shelves

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (18) ◽  
pp. 9481-9509 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. P. Grosvenor ◽  
J. C. King ◽  
T. W. Choularton ◽  
T. Lachlan-Cope
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Surface Energy ◽  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Energy Budget ◽  
Surface Flux ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Aircraft Observations ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Mesoscale model simulations are presented of a westerly föhn event over the Antarctic Peninsula mountain ridge and onto the Larsen C ice shelf, just south of the recently collapsed Larsen B ice shelf. Aircraft observations showed the presence of föhn jets descending near the ice shelf surface with maximum wind speeds at 250–350 m in height. Surface flux measurements suggested that melting was occurring. Simulated profiles of wind speed, temperature and wind direction were very similar to the observations. However, the good match only occurred at a model time corresponding to ~9 h before the aircraft observations were made since the model föhn jets died down after this. This was despite the fact that the model was nudged towards analysis for heights greater than ~1.15 km above the surface. Timing issues aside, the otherwise good comparison between the model and observations gave confidence that the model flow structure was similar to that in reality. Details of the model jet structure are explored and discussed and are found to have ramifications for the placement of automatic weather station (AWS) stations on the ice shelf in order to detect föhn flow. Cross sections of the flow are also examined and were found to compare well to the aircraft measurements. Gravity wave breaking above the mountain crest likely created a~situation similar to hydraulic flow and allowed föhn flow and ice shelf surface warming to occur despite strong upwind blocking, which in previous studies of this region has generally not been considered. Our results therefore suggest that reduced upwind blocking, due to wind speed increases or stability decreases, might not result in an increased likelihood of föhn events over the Antarctic Peninsula, as previously suggested. The surface energy budget of the model during the melting periods showed that the net downwelling short-wave surface flux was the largest contributor to the melting energy, indicating that the cloud clearing effect of föhn events is likely to be the most important factor for increased melting relative to non-föhn days. The results also indicate that the warmth of the föhn jets through sensible heat flux ("SH") may not be critical in causing melting beyond boundary layer stabilisation effects (which may help to prevent cloud cover and suppress loss of heat by convection) and are actually cancelled by latent heat flux ("LH") effects (snow ablation). It was found that ground heat flux ("GRD") was likely to be an important factor when considering the changing surface energy budget for the southern regions of the ice shelf as the climate warms.

scholarly journals In-situ aircraft observations of ice concentrations within clouds over the Antarctic Peninsula and Larsen Ice Shelf

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 17295-17345
Author(s):  
D. P. Grosvenor ◽  
T. W. Choularton ◽  
T. Lachlan-Cope ◽  
M. W. Gallagher ◽  
J. Crosier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Particle Production ◽  
Supercooled Liquid ◽  
Ice Crystals ◽  
Ice Crystal ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Aircraft Observations ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Larsen Ice Shelf

Abstract. In-situ aircraft observations of ice crystal concentrations in Antarctic clouds are presented for the first time. Orographic, layer and wave clouds around the Antarctic Peninsula and Larsen Ice shelf regions were penetrated by the British Antarctic Survey's Twin Otter Aircraft, which was equipped with modern cloud physics probes. The clouds studied were mostly in the free troposphere and hence ice crystals blown from the surface are unlikely to have been a major source for the ice phase. The temperature range covered by the experiments was 0 to −21°C. The clouds were found to contain supercooled liquid water in most regions and at heterogeneous ice formation temperatures ice crystal concentrations (60 s averages) were often less than 0.07 l−1, although values up to 0.22 l−1 were observed. Estimates of observed aerosol concentrations were used as input into the DeMott et al., 2010 ice nuclei (IN) parameterisation. The observed ice crystal number concentrations were generally in broad agreement with the IN predictions, although on the whole the predicted values were higher. Possible reasons for this are discussed and include the lack of IN observations in this region with which to characterise the parameterisation, and/or problems in relating ice concentration measurements to IN concentrations. Other IN parameterisations significantly overestimated the number of ice particles. Generally ice particle concentrations were much lower than found in clouds in middle latitudes for a given temperature. Higher ice crystal concentrations were sometimes observed at temperatures warmer than −9 °C, with values of several per litre reached. These were attributable to secondary ice particle production by the Hallett Mossop process. Even in this temperature range it was observed that there were regions with little or no ice that were dominated by supercooled liquid water. It is likely that in some cases this was due to a lack of seeding ice crystals to act as rimers to initiate secondary ice particle production. This highlights the complicated nature of this process and indicates that the accurate representation of it in global models is likely to represent a challenge. However, the contrast between Hallett Mossop zone ice concentrations and the fairly low concentrations of heterogeneously nucleated ice suggests that the Hallet Mossop process has the potential to be very important in remote, pristine regions such as around the Antarctic coast.

scholarly journals In-situ aircraft observations of ice concentrations within clouds over the Antarctic Peninsula and Larsen Ice Shelf

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (23) ◽  
pp. 11275-11294 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. P. Grosvenor ◽  
T. W. Choularton ◽  
T. Lachlan-Cope ◽  
M. W. Gallagher ◽  
J. Crosier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Particle Production ◽  
Supercooled Liquid ◽  
Ice Crystals ◽  
Ice Crystal ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Aircraft Observations ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Larsen Ice Shelf

Abstract. In-situ aircraft observations of ice crystal concentrations in Antarctic clouds are presented for the first time. Orographic, layer and wave clouds around the Antarctic Peninsula and Larsen Ice shelf regions were penetrated by the British Antarctic Survey's Twin Otter aircraft, which was equipped with modern cloud physics probes. The clouds studied were mostly in the free troposphere and hence ice crystals blown from the surface are unlikely to have been a major source for the ice phase. The temperature range covered by the experiments was 0 to −21 °C. The clouds were found to contain supercooled liquid water in most regions and at heterogeneous ice formation temperatures ice crystal concentrations (60 s averages) were often less than 0.07 l−1, although values up to 0.22 l−1 were observed. Estimates of observed aerosol concentrations were used as input into the DeMott et al. (2010) ice nuclei (IN) parameterisation. The observed ice crystal number concentrations were generally in broad agreement with the IN predictions, although on the whole the predicted values were higher. Possible reasons for this are discussed and include the lack of IN observations in this region with which to characterise the parameterisation, and/or problems in relating ice concentration measurements to IN concentrations. Other IN parameterisations significantly overestimated the number of ice particles. Generally ice particle concentrations were much lower than found in clouds in middle latitudes for a given temperature. Higher ice crystal concentrations were sometimes observed at temperatures warmer than −9 °C, with values of several per litre reached. These were attributable to secondary ice particle production by the Hallett Mossop process. Even in this temperature range it was observed that there were regions with little or no ice that were dominated by supercooled liquid water. It is likely that in some cases this was due to a lack of seeding ice crystals to act as rimers to initiate secondary ice particle production. This highlights the chaotic and spatially inhomogeneous nature of this process and indicates that the accurate representation of it in global models is likely to represent a challenge. However, the contrast between Hallett Mossop zone ice concentrations and the fairly low concentrations of heterogeneously nucleated ice suggests that the Hallet Mossop process has the potential to be very important in remote, pristine regions such as around the Antarctic coast.

scholarly journals Surface energy budget on Larsen and Wilkins ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula: results based on reanalyses in 1989–2010

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1519-1538 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Välisuo ◽  
T. Vihma ◽  
J. C. King
Keyword(s):  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
Japan Meteorological Agency ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
Net Flux ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula have significantly disintegrated during recent decades. To better understand the atmospheric contribution in the process, we have analysed the inter-annual variations in radiative and turbulent surface fluxes and weather conditions over Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS) and Wilkins Ice Shelf (WIS) in the Antarctic Peninsula in 1989–2010. Three atmospheric reanalyses were applied: ERA-Interim by ECMWF, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) by NCEP, and JRA-25/JCDAS by the Japan Meteorological Agency. In addition, in situ observations from an automatic weather station (AWS) on LCIS were applied, mainly for validation of the reanalyses. The AWS observations on LCIS did not show any significant temperature trend, and the reanalyses showed warming trends only over WIS: ERA-Interim in winter (0.23 °C yr−1) and JRA-25/JCDAS in autumn (0.13 °C yr−1). In LCIS from December through August and in WIS from March through August, the variations of surface net flux were partly explained by the combined effects of atmospheric pressure, wind and cloud fraction. The explained variance was much higher in LCIS (up to 80%) than in WIS (26–27%). Summer melting on LCIS varied between 11 and 58 cm water equivalent (w.e.), which is comparable to previous results. The mean amount of melt days per summer on LCIS was 69. The high values of melting in summer 2001–2002 presented in previous studies on the basis of simple calculations were not supported by our study. Instead, our calculations based on ERA-Interim yielded strongest melting in summer 1992–1993 on both ice shelves. On WIS the summer melting ranged between 10 and 23 cm w.e., and the peak values coincided with the largest disintegrations of the ice shelf. The amount of melt on WIS may, however, be underestimated by ERA-Interim, as previously published satellite observations suggest that it suffers from a significant bias over WIS.

scholarly journals Downslope föhn winds over the Antarctic Peninsula and their effect on the Larsen Ice Shelves

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 5771-5835
Author(s):  
D. P. Grosvenor ◽  
J. C. King ◽  
T. W. Choularton ◽  
T. Lachlan-Cope
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Surface Energy ◽  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Energy Budget ◽  
Surface Flux ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ground Heat Flux ◽  
Aircraft Observations ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Mesoscale model simulations are presented of a westerly föhn event over the Antarctic Peninsula mountain ridge and onto the Larsen C Ice Shelf, just south of the recently collapsed Larsen B Ice Shelf. Aircraft observations showed the presence of föhn jets descending near to the ice shelf surface with maximum wind speeds at 250–350 m in height. Surface flux measurements suggested that melting was occurring. Simulated profiles of wind speed, temperature and wind direction were very similar to the observations. However, the good match only occurred at a model time corresponding to ∼9 h before the aircraft observations were made since the model föhn jets died down after this. Through comparison to an Automatic Weather Station (AWS) on the ice shelf surface (east side of the ridge) this was attributed to problems with the time evolution of the large scale meteorology of the analysis used to nudge the upper levels of the model. Timing issues aside, the otherwise good comparison between the model and observations gave confidence that the model flow structure was similar to that in reality. Details of the model jet structure are explored and discussed and are found to have ramifications for the placement of AWS stations on the ice shelf in order to detect föhn flow. Cross sections of the flow are also examined and were found to compare well to the aircraft measurements. Gravity wave breaking above the mountain crest likely created a situation similar to hydraulic flow and allowed föhn flow and ice shelf surface warming to occur despite strong upwind blocking, which in previous studies of this region has generally not been considered. The surface energy budget of the model during the melting periods showed that the net downwelling shortwave surface flux was the largest contributor to the melting energy, indicating that the cloud clearing effect of föhn events is likely to be the most important factor for increased melting relative to non-föhn days. The results also indicate that the warmth of the föhn jets through sensible heat flux may not be critical in causing melting beyond boundary layer stabilization effects (which may help to prevent cloud cover and suppress loss of heat by convection) and are actually cancelled by latent heat flux effects (snow ablation). It was found that ground heat flux was likely to be an important factor when considering the changing surface energy budget for the southern regions of the ice shelf as the climate warms.

scholarly journals Surface energy budget on Larsen and Wilkins ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula: results based on reanalyses in 1989–2010

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 1269-1311
Author(s):  
I. Välisuo ◽  
T. Vihma ◽  
J. C. King
Keyword(s):  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
Japan Meteorological Agency ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
Net Flux ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula have significantly disintegrated during the recent decades. To better understand the atmospheric contribution in the process, we have analysed the inter-annual variations in radiative and turbulent surface fluxes and weather conditions over Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS) and Wilkins Ice Shelf (WIS) in the Antarctic Peninsula in 1989–2010. Three atmospheric reanalyses were applied: ERA-Interim by ECMWF, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) by NCEP, and JRA-25/JCDAS by the Japan Meteorological Agency. In addition, in situ observations from an automatic weather station (AWS) on LCIS were applied, mainly for validation of the reanalyses. The AWS observations on LCIS did not show any significant temperature trend, and the reanalyses showed warming trends only over WIS: ERA-Interim in winter (0.23 °C yr−1) and JRA in autumn (0.13 °C yr−1). In LCIS from December through August and in WIS from March through August, the variations of surface net flux were partly explained by the combined effects of atmospheric pressure, wind, and cloud fraction. The explained variance was much higher in LCIS (up to 80%) than in WIS (26–27%). Summer melting on LCIS varied between 0 and 45 cm water equivalent (w.e.), which is comparable to previous results. The mean amount of melt days per summer on LCIS was only 17. The high values of melting in summer 2001–2002 presented in previous studies on the basis of simple calculations were not supported by our study. Instead, our calculations based on ERA-Interim yielded strongest melting in summer 1992–1993 on both ice shelves. On WIS the summer melting ranged between 2 and 40 cm w.e., and the peak values coincided with the largest disintegrations of the ice shelf.

scholarly journals Recent ice-surface-elevation changes of Fleming Glacier in response to the removal of the Wordie Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula

2010 ◽  
Vol 51 (55) ◽  
pp. 97-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Wendt ◽  
A. Rivera ◽  
A. Wendt ◽  
F. Bown ◽  
R. Zamora ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Airborne Lidar ◽  
Similar Data ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
International Polar Year ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Elevation Changes ◽  
The Antarctic

AbstractRegional climate warming has caused several ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula to retreat and ultimately collapse during recent decades. Glaciers flowing into these retreating ice shelves have responded with accelerating ice flow and thinning. The Wordie Ice Shelf on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula was reported to have undergone a major areal reduction before 1989. Since then, this ice shelf has continued to retreat and now very little floating ice remains. Little information is currently available regarding the dynamic response of the glaciers feeding the Wordie Ice Shelf, but we describe a Chilean International Polar Year project, initiated in 2007, targeted at studying the glacier dynamics in this area and their relationship to local meteorological conditions. Various data were collected during field campaigns to Fleming Glacier in the austral summers of 2007/08 and 2008/09. In situ measurements of ice-flow velocity first made in 1974 were repeated and these confirm satellite-based assessments that velocity on the glacier has increased by 40–50% since 1974. Airborne lidar data collected in December 2008 can be compared with similar data collected in 2004 in collaboration with NASA and the Chilean Navy. This comparison indicates continued thinning of the glacier, with increasing rates of thinning downstream, with a mean of 4.1 ± 0.2 m a−1 at the grounding line of the glacier. These comparisons give little indication that the glacier is achieving a new equilibrium.

scholarly journals Speedup and fracturing of George VI Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 797-816 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. O. Holt ◽  
N. F. Glasser ◽  
D. J. Quincey ◽  
M. R. Siegfried
Keyword(s):  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Surface Elevation ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
The North ◽  
Surface Elevation Change ◽  
Elevation Changes ◽  
Negative Surface ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. George VI Ice Shelf (GVIIS) is located on the Antarctic Peninsula, a region where several ice shelves have undergone rapid breakup in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming. We use a combination of optical (Landsat), radar (ERS 1/2 SAR) and laser altimetry (GLAS) datasets to examine the response of GVIIS to environmental change and to offer an assessment on its future stability. The spatial and structural changes of GVIIS (ca. 1973 to ca. 2010) are mapped and surface velocities are calculated at different time periods (InSAR and optical feature tracking from 1989 to 2009) to document changes in the ice shelf's flow regime. Surface elevation changes are recorded between 2003 and 2008 using repeat track ICESat acquisitions. We note an increase in fracture extent and distribution at the south ice front, ice-shelf acceleration towards both the north and south ice fronts and spatially varied negative surface elevation change throughout, with greater variations observed towards the central and southern regions of the ice shelf. We propose that whilst GVIIS is in no imminent danger of collapse, it is vulnerable to ongoing atmospheric and oceanic warming and is more susceptible to breakup along its southern margin in ice preconditioned for further retreat.

scholarly journals Speedup and fracturing of George VI Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 373-417 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. O. Holt ◽  
N. F. Glasser ◽  
D. J. Quincey ◽  
M. R. Siegfried
Keyword(s):  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Surface Elevation ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
The North ◽  
Surface Elevation Change ◽  
Elevation Changes ◽  
Negative Surface ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. George VI Ice Shelf (GVIIS) is located on the Antarctic Peninsula, a region where several ice shelves have undergone rapid breakup in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming. We use a combination of optical (Landsat), radar (ERS 1/2 SAR) and laser altimetry (GLAS) datasets to examine the response of GVIIS to environmental change and to offer an assessment on its future stability. The spatial and structural changes of GVIIS (ca. 1973 to ca. 2010) are mapped and surface velocities are calculated at different time periods (InSAR and optical feature tracking from 1989 to 2009) to document changes in the ice shelf's flow regime. Surface elevation changes are recorded between 2003 and 2008 using repeat track ICESat acquisitions. We note an increase in fracture extent and distribution at the south ice front, ice-shelf acceleration towards both the north and south ice fronts and spatially varied negative surface elevation change throughout, with greater variations observed towards the central and southern regions of the ice shelf. We propose that whilst GVIIS is in no imminent danger of collapse, it is vulnerable to on-going atmospheric and oceanic warming and is more susceptible to breakup along its southern margin in ice preconditioned for further retreat.

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