Predicting changes in molluscan spatial distributions in mangrove forests in response to sea-level rise

Molluscs are an important component of the mangrove ecosystem, and the vertical distributions of molluscan species in this ecosystem are primarily dictated by tidal inundation. Thus, sea-level rise (SLR) may have profound effects on mangrove mollusc communities. Here, we used two dynamic empirical models based on measurements of surface elevation change, sediment accretion and zonation patterns of molluscs to predict changes in molluscan spatial distributions in response to different sea-level rise rates in the mangrove forests of Zhenzhu Bay (Guangxi, China). The change in surface elevation was 4.76–9.61 mm a during the study period (2016–2020), and the magnitude of surface-elevation change decreased exponentially as original surface elevation increased. Based on our model results, we predicted that mangrove molluscs might successfully adapt to a low rate of SLR (marker-horizon model: 2–4.57 mm a; plate model: 2–5.20 mm a) by 2100, with molluscs moving seaward and those in the lower intertidal zones expanding into newly available zones. However, as SLR rate increased (marker-horizon model: 4.57–8.14 mm a; plate model: 5.20–6.88 mm a), our models predicted that surface elevations would decrease beginning in the high intertidal zones and gradually spreading to the low intertidal zones. Finally, at high rates of SLR (marker-horizon model: 8.14–16.00 mm a; plate model: 6.88–16.00 mm a), surface elevations were predicted to decrease across the elevation gradient, with molluscs moving landward and species in higher intertidal zones would be blocked by landward barriers. Tidal inundation and the consequent increase in interspecific competition and predation pressure were predicted to threaten the survival of many molluscan groups in higher intertidal zones, especially species at the landward edge of the mangroves. Thus, future efforts to conserve mangrove floral and faunal diversity should prioritize species restricted to landward mangrove areas.

Brief communication: Increased glacier mass loss in the Russian High Arctic (2010–2017)

Glaciers in the Russian High Arctic have been subject to extensive atmospheric warming due to global climate change, yet their contribution to sea level rise has been relatively small over the past decades. Here we show surface elevation change measurements and geodetic mass balances of 93 % of all glacierized areas of Novaya Zemlya, Severnaya Zemlya, and Franz Josef Land using interferometric synthetic aperture radar measurements taken between 2010 and 2017. We calculate an overall mass loss rate of -22±6 Gt a−1, corresponding to a sea level rise contribution of 0.06±0.02 mm a−1. Compared to measurements prior to 2010, mass loss of glaciers on the Russian archipelagos has doubled in recent years.

Multi-decadal (1953–2017) rock glacier kinematics analysed by high-resolution topographic data in the upper Kaunertal, Austria

Permafrost is being degraded worldwide due to the change in external forcing caused by climate change. This has also been shown to affect the morphodynamics of active rock glaciers. We studied these changes, depending on the analysis, on nine or eight active rock glaciers, respectively, with different characteristics in multiple epochs between 1953 and 2017 in Kaunertal, Austria. A combination of historical aerial photographs and airborne laser scanning data and their derivatives were used to analyse surface movement and surface elevation change. In general, the studied landforms showed a significant acceleration of varying magnitude in the epoch 1997–2006 and a volume loss to variable degrees throughout the investigation period. Rock glaciers related to glacier forefields showed significantly higher rates of subsidence than talus-connected ones. Besides, we detected two rock glaciers with deviating behaviour and one that showed an inactivation of its terminal part. By analysing meteorological data (temperature, precipitation and snow cover onset and duration), we were able to identify possible links to these external forcing parameters. The catchment-wide survey further revealed that, despite the general trend, timing, magnitude and temporal peaks of morphodynamic changes indicate a slightly different sensitivity, response or response time of individual rock glaciers to fluctuations and changes in external forcing parameters.

Improved representation of the contemporary Greenland ice sheet firn layer by IMAU-FDM v1.2G

The firn layer that covers 90 % of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) plays an important role in determining the response of the ice sheet to climate change. Meltwater can percolate into the firn layer and refreeze at greater depths, thereby temporarily preventing mass loss. However, as global warming leads to increasing surface melt, more surface melt may refreeze in the firn layer, thereby reducing the capacity to buffer subsequent episodes of melt. This can lead to a tipping point in meltwater runoff. It is therefore important to study the evolution of the Greenland firn layer in the past, present and future. In this study, we present the latest version of our firn model, IMAU-FDM (Firn Densification Model), with an application to the GrIS. We improved the density of freshly fallen snow, the dry-snow densification rate and the firn's thermal conductivity using recently published parameterizations and by calibrating to an extended set of observations of firn density, temperature and liquid water content at the GrIS. Overall, the updated model settings lead to higher firn air content and higher 10 m firn temperatures, owing to a lower density near the surface. The effect of the new model settings on the surface elevation change is investigated through three case studies located at Summit, KAN-U and FA-13. Most notably, the updated model shows greater inter- and intra-annual variability in elevation and an increased sensitivity to climate forcing.

Classifying disequilibrium of small mountain glaciers from patterns of surface elevation change distributions

The overall trend of rapid retreat of Alpine glaciers contains considerable variability of responses at the scale of individual glaciers. As a step towards a regional assessment of glacier state that allows a detailed differentiation of single glaciers, we explore the potential of a self-organizing maps (SOM) algorithm to identify and cluster recurring patterns of thickness change at glaciers in western Austria. Using digital elevation models and glacier inventories for three time periods, we compute the frequency distribution of surface elevation change over the area of each glacier in the data set, for each period. The results of the SOM clustering show a distinct pattern shift over time: From 1969 to 1997, surface elevation change occurred at relatively uniform rates across a given glacier. Since 1997, the distribution of surface elevation change at individual glaciers has been far less uniform, indicating accelerated processes of disintegration. Tracking the evolution of individual glaciers throughout the time periods via the clusters highlights both the broader regional trend as well as glaciers that deviate from this trend, e.g. some very small, high elevation glaciers that have reverted to reduced and more uniform volume loss patterns.

Temporal and Spatial Accretion Patterns and the Impact of Livestock Grazing in a Restored Coastal Salt Marsh

A summer polder had developed a deficit in surface elevation of about 20 cm in respect to rising sea level during its almost one-hundred-year period of embankment. We addressed the questions whether the distance of the restored site to the intertidal flats and continuation of livestock grazing in the restored site could hamper surface-elevation change during the first 10 years after de-embankment of the summer polder. The surface-elevation change showed similar positive linear relationships with annual tidal flooding in both the reference salt marsh and the restored site, indicating that the surface-elevation change in the restored site was not moderated by the distance from the sea. The surface-elevation change had a clear seasonal pattern with positive values in winter and negative values during summer. The surface-elevation change was 11 mm/year in the grazed reference salt marsh and 7 mm/year in the grazed restored site, but amounted to 17 mm/year in ungrazed exclosures in the restored site, showing that grazing retarded the catching up of the elevation deficit in the restored site. The surface-elevation change within the restored site was higher close to the constructed creeks indicating the inception of levee formation. The surface-elevation change was also positively affected by the proximity of breaches in the embankment, but this effect was less clear than the effect of creeks. We conclude that the surface-elevation deficit may be compensated in the Wadden Sea summer polders by their de-embankment when sediment supply is high, whereas livestock grazing retards this process. Dug creeks increase spatial variation in the restored site.

Processes Influencing Autocompaction Modulate Coastal Wetland Surface Elevation Adjustment With Sea-Level Rise

The fate of coastal wetlands and their ecosystem services is dependent upon maintaining substrate elevations within a tidal frame that is influenced by sea-level rise. Development and application of morphodynamic models has been limited as few empirical studies have measured the contribution of key processes to surface elevation change, including mineral and organic matter addition, autocompaction of accumulating sediments and deep subsidence. Accordingly, many models presume that substrates are in equilibrium with relative sea-level rise (RSLR) and the composition of substrates are relatively homogenous. A 20-year record of surface elevation change and vertical accretion from a large tidal embayment in Australia coupled with analyses of inundation frequency and the character of sediments that have accumulated above mean sea level was analyzed to investigate processes influencing surface elevation adjustment. This study confirms the varying contribution of addition, decomposition and compression of organic material, and mineral sediment consolidation. Autocompaction of substrates was proportional to the overburden of accumulating sediments. These processes operate concurrently and are influenced by sediment supply and deposition. Vertical accretion was linearly related to accommodation space. Surface elevation change was related to vertical accretion and substrate organic matter, indicated by carbon storage above mean sea level. Surface elevation change also conformed to models that initially increase and then decrease as accommodation space diminishes. Rates of surface elevation change were largely found to be in equilibrium with sea-level rise measured at the nearest tide gauge, which was estimated at 3.5 mm y–1 over the period of measurements. As creation of new accommodation space with sea-level rise is contrary to the longer-term history of relative sea-level stability in Australia since the mid-Holocene, striking stratigraphic variation arises with deeper sediments dominated by mineral sands and surficial sediments increasingly fine grained and having higher carbon storage. As the sediment character of substrates was found to influence rates of surface elevation gain, we caution against the unqualified use of models derived from the northern hemisphere where substrates have continuously adjusted to sea-level rise and sediment character is likely to be more homogenous.

Rapid changes of Alpine glaciers in Austria tracked by ALS surveys

<p>Unprecedented glacier changes are reported for many mountain regions on earth based on surveys with different spatial resolution and repeat intervals. Eastern Alpine glaciers have been receding since the LIA maximum, with increasing relative volume loss at the beginning of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. New high-resolution data of surface elevation from ALS surveys enable the analysis of most recent glacier changes at three mountain ranges in western Austria as an impact of climate change.</p><p>Surface elevation change rates between 2007 and 2018 increased again in comparison to former periods. Volume loss takes place even in the highest elevation zones, and most of the glaciers are out of an equilibrium state, such that consolidation of mass balance towards zero appears impossible under present climate conditions. The disintegration of low lying glacier tongues and a strong depletion of the firn cover are further signs of rapid glacier changes. The frequency distributions of surface elevation change throughout the area of each glacier show distinct shifts in peak ice thickness change and patterns of surface change distribution that suggest ongoing processes of glacier disintegration. Combining recent surface elevation changes and estimations of the spatial distribution of ice thickness in Austria shows that most of glaciers will vanish in 50 years or less. Only glaciers currently larger than 5 km² can be expected to exist longer at reduced size. At current rates of mass loss, glaciers are projected to retreat entirely to above 2800m in the Ötztal and Stubai ranges by 2050. Further concerns arise regarding methods of tracking the future development of the remaining ice bodies. In particular, in the Silvretta mountain range, the majority of glacier margins have to be delineated in debris-covered glacier zones. It is debatable whether some of the smallest glaciogenic features should still be accounted for in glacier inventories or moved to an inventory of transient cryogenic landforms.</p>

Coastal wetland substrate elevation is dynamically related to accommodation space and influenced by sea-level rise

<p>The resilience of coastal wetlands in the fate of sea-level rise is proposed to be related to the combined influence of changes in substrate organic matter volume, mineral sediment volume, auto-compaction of accumulating material and deep subsidence; however, relatively few studies have measured all of these variables. In addition, there is ongoing debate about the suitability of this data for modelling the behaviour of coastal wetlands under anticipated sea-level rise projections as temporal discrepancies in the elevation response of coastal wetlands derived from observational and stratigraphic records exist. To resolve these issues, data derived from a range of techniques sensitive to changes occurring at annual, decadal and century timescales, is presented in the context of available accommodation space, that is, the space in which tidally-borne material can accumulate. Focussing on an embayment in Victoria, Australia, analyses confirm that at annual-decadal timescales, organic matter behaves like a sponge, compressing as the overburden of material accumulates, resulting in auto-compaction that modulates the degree of surface elevation change that occurs as tidally-borne material accumulates. These processes operate concurrently and are influenced by sediment availability, yet vary on the basis of available accommodation space. At longer timescales, the influence of auto-compaction diminishes as organic matter has undergone significant compression and decomposition, yet accumulated material remains proportional to available accommodation space. These analyses confirm that temporal discrepancies in rates of substrate elevation change can be resolved by accounting for the timescale over which processes operate and the influence of sea-level rise on available accommodation space. Accordingly, models should dynamically consider rates of surface elevation change relative to available accommodation space.</p>