scholarly journals Glacier evolution in high-mountain Asia under stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection geoengineering

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (11) ◽  
pp. 6547-6564 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liyun Zhao ◽  
Yi Yang ◽  
Wei Cheng ◽  
Duoying Ji ◽  
John C. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Sulfate Aerosol ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Volume Loss ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Glacier Shrinkage

Abstract. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection may help preserve mountain glaciers by reducing summer temperatures. We examine this hypothesis for the glaciers in high-mountain Asia using a glacier mass balance model driven by climate simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The G3 and G4 schemes specify use of stratospheric sulfate aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario for the 50 years between 2020 and 2069, and for a further 20 years after termination of geoengineering. We estimate and compare glacier volume loss for every glacier in the region using a glacier model based on surface mass balance parameterization under climate projections from three Earth system models under G3, five models under G4, and six models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The ensemble projections suggest that glacier shrinkage over the period 2010–2069 is equivalent to sea-level rise of 9.0 ± 1.6 mm (G3), 9.8 ± 4.3 mm (G4), 15.5 ± 2.3 mm (RCP4.5), and 18.5 ± 1.7 mm (RCP8.5). Although G3 keeps the average temperature from increasing in the geoengineering period, G3 only slows glacier shrinkage by about 50 % relative to losses from RCP8.5. Approximately 72 % of glaciated area remains at 2069 under G3, as compared with about 30 % for RCP8.5. The widely reported reduction in mean precipitation expected for solar geoengineering is unlikely to be as important as the temperature-driven shift from solid to liquid precipitation for forcing Himalayan glacier change. The termination of geoengineering at 2069 under G3 leads to temperature rise of about 1.3 °C over the period 2070–2089 relative to the period 2050-2069 and corresponding increase in annual mean glacier volume loss rate from 0.17 to 1.1 % yr−1, which is higher than the 0.66 % yr−1 under RCP8.5 during 2070–2089.

scholarly journals Glacier evolution in high mountain Asia under stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection geoengineering

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liyun Zhao ◽  
Yi Yang ◽  
Doying Ji ◽  
John C. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Sulfate Aerosol ◽  
Eastern Himalaya ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Volume Loss ◽  
Glacier Surface

Abstract. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection may help preserve mountain glaciers by reducing summer temperatures. We examine this hypothesis for the glaciers in High Mountain Asia using a glacier mass balance model driven by climate simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The G3 and G4 schemes specify use of stratospheric sulphate aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario for the 50 years between 2020 and 2069, and for a further 20 years after termination of geoengineering. We estimate and compare glaciers volume loss for every glacier in the region using a model based on glacier surface mass balance parameterization under climate projections from 3 Earth System Models under G3, 5 under G4 and 6 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. G3 keeps the summer mean temperature from increasing in the geoengineering period, but termination of geoengineering leads to sudden temperature rise of about 1.7 ºC and corresponding increase in glacier retreat. Glacier volume in inner Tibet and eastern Himalaya is least affected by greenhouse gas forcing, and also benefits the most from geoengineering. The ensemble mean projections suggest that glacier shrinkage over the period 2010–2069 are equivalent to sea-level rises of 8.4 mm (G3), 10.7 mm (G4), 14.7 mm (RCP 4.5) and 16.8 mm (RCP8.5). After the termination of geoengineering, annual mean volume loss rate for all the glaciers under G3 increases from 0.39 % a−1 to 0.90 % a−1, which are higher than the 0.70 % a−1 under RCP8.5 at that time. While sulphate 30 aerosol injection geoengineering may slow glacier loss in the region, it cannot prevent about a third of existing glacier coverage disappearing by 2069.

scholarly journals The climatic mass balance of Svalbard glaciers: a 10-year simulation with a coupled atmosphere–glacier mass balance model

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1089-1104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kjetil S. Aas ◽  
Thorben Dunse ◽  
Emily Collier ◽  
Thomas V. Schuler ◽  
Terje K. Berntsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Detailed Comparison ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Satellite Measurements ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Ice Cap ◽  
A Site

Abstract. In this study we simulate the climatic mass balance of Svalbard glaciers with a coupled atmosphere–glacier model with 3 km grid spacing, from September 2003 to September 2013. We find a mean specific net mass balance of −257 mm w.e. yr−1, corresponding to a mean annual mass loss of about 8.7 Gt, with large interannual variability. Our results are compared with a comprehensive set of mass balance, meteorological, and satellite measurements. Model temperature biases of 0.19 and −1.9 °C are found at two glacier automatic weather station sites. Simulated climatic mass balance is mostly within about 100 mm w.e. yr−1 of stake measurements, and simulated winter accumulation at the Austfonna ice cap shows mean absolute errors of 47 and 67 mm w.e. yr−1 when compared to radar-derived values for the selected years 2004 and 2006. Comparison of modeled surface height changes from 2003 to 2008, and satellite altimetry reveals good agreement in both mean values and regional differences. The largest deviations from observations are found for winter accumulation at Hansbreen (up to around 1000 mm w.e. yr−1), a site where sub-grid topography and wind redistribution of snow are important factors. Comparison with simulations using 9 km grid spacing reveal considerable differences on regional and local scales. In addition, 3 km grid spacing allows for a much more detailed comparison with observations than what is possible with 9 km grid spacing. Further decreasing the grid spacing to 1 km appears to be less significant, although in general precipitation amounts increase with resolution. Altogether, the model compares well with observations and offers possibilities for studying glacier climatic mass balance on Svalbard both historically as well as based on climate projections.

scholarly journals A near 90-year record of the evolution of El Morado Glacier and its proglacial lake, Central Chilean Andes

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (259) ◽  
pp. 846-860 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Farías-Barahona ◽  
Ryan Wilson ◽  
Claudio Bravo ◽  
Sebastián Vivero ◽  
Alexis Caro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Central Andes ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Water Volume ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Area Loss ◽  
Proglacial Lake

AbstractUsing an ensemble of close- and long-range remote sensing, lake bathymetry and regional meteorological data, we present a detailed assessment of the geometric changes of El Morado Glacier in the Central Andes of Chile and its adjacent proglacial lake between 1932 and 2019. Overall, the results revealed a period of marked glacier down wasting, with a mean geodetic glacier mass balance of −0.39 ± 0.15 m w.e.a−1 observed for the entire glacier between 1955 and 2015 with an area loss of 40% between 1955 and 2019. We estimate an ice elevation change of −1.00 ± 0.17 m a−1 for the glacier tongue between 1932 and 2019. The increase in the ice thinning rates and area loss during the last decade is coincident with the severe drought in this region (2010–present), which our minimal surface mass-balance model is able to reproduce. As a result of the glacier changes observed, the proglacial lake increased in area substantially between 1955 and 2019, with bathymetry data suggesting a water volume of 3.6 million m3 in 2017. This study highlights the need for further monitoring of glacierised areas in the Central Andes. Such efforts would facilitate a better understanding of the downstream impacts of glacier downwasting.

scholarly journals The High Mountain Asia glacier contribution to sea-level rise from 2000 to 2050

2016 ◽  
Vol 57 (71) ◽  
pp. 223-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liyun Zhao ◽  
Ran Ding ◽  
John C. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Summer Temperatures

AbstractWe estimate all the individual glacier area and volume changes in High Mountain Asia (HMA) by 2050 based on Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) version 4.0, using different methods of assessing sensitivity to summer temperatures driven by a regional climate model and the IPCC A1B radiative forcing scenario. A large range of sea-level rise variation comes from varying equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) sensitivity to summer temperatures. This sensitivity and also the glacier mass-balance gradients with elevation have the largest coefficients of variability (amounting to ~50%) among factors examined. Prescribing ELA sensitivities from energy-balance models produces the highest sea-level rise (9.2 mm, or 0.76% of glacier volume a–1), while the ELA sensitivities estimated from summer temperatures at Chinese meteorological stations and also from 1°x1° gridded temperatures in the Berkeley Earth database produce 3.6 and 3.8 mm, respectively. Different choices of the initial ELA or summer precipitation lead to 15% uncertainties in modelled glacier volume loss. RGI version 4.0 produces 20% lower sea-level rise than version 2.0. More surface mass-balance observations, meteorological data from the glaciated areas, and detailed satellite altimetry data can provide better estimates of sea-level rise in the future.

scholarly journals Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 3661-3677 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. F. Lutz ◽  
W. W. Immerzeel ◽  
A. Gobiet ◽  
F. Pellicciotti ◽  
M. F. P. Bierkens
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balance Model ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
The Future

Abstract. Central Asian water resources largely depend on melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges. To estimate future water availability in this region, it is necessary to use climate projections to estimate the future glacier extent and volume. In this study, we evaluate the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. To this end we use the latest climate change projections generated for the upcoming IPCC report (CMIP5) and, for comparison, projections used in the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3). With these projections we force a regionalized glacier mass balance model, and estimate changes in the basins' glacier extent as a function of the glacier size distribution in the basins and projected temperature and precipitation. This glacier mass balance model is specifically developed for implementation in large scale hydrological models, where the spatial resolution does not allow for simulating individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Although the CMIP5 ensemble results in greater regional warming than the CMIP3 ensemble and the range in projections for temperature as well as precipitation is wider for the CMIP5 than for the CMIP3, the spread in projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia is similar for both ensembles. This is because differences in temperature rise are small during periods of maximum melt (July–September) while differences in precipitation change are small during the period of maximum accumulation (October–February). However, the model uncertainty due to parameter uncertainty is high, and has roughly the same importance as uncertainty in the climate projections. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of future Central Asian glacier evolution and downstream water availability uncertain.

scholarly journals Reconstructing the annual mass balance of the Echaurren Norte glacier (Central Andes, 33.5° S) using local and regional hydroclimatic data

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 927-940 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariano H. Masiokas ◽  
Duncan A. Christie ◽  
Carlos Le Quesne ◽  
Pierre Pitte ◽  
Lucas Ruiz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Mass Balances ◽  
Positive Mass ◽  
Glacier Surface ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
The Andes

Abstract. Despite the great number and variety of glaciers in southern South America, in situ glacier mass-balance records are extremely scarce and glacier–climate relationships are still poorly understood in this region. Here we use the longest (>  35 years) and most complete in situ mass-balance record, available for the Echaurren Norte glacier (ECH) in the Andes at  ∼  33.5° S, to develop a minimal glacier surface mass-balance model that relies on nearby monthly precipitation and air temperature data as forcing. This basic model is able to explain 78 % of the variance in the annual glacier mass-balance record over the 1978–2013 calibration period. An attribution assessment identified precipitation variability as the dominant forcing modulating annual mass balances at ECH, with temperature variations likely playing a secondary role. A regionally averaged series of mean annual streamflow records from both sides of the Andes between  ∼  30 and 37° S is then used to estimate, through simple linear regression, this glacier's annual mass-balance variations since 1909. The reconstruction model captures 68 % of the observed glacier mass-balance variability and shows three periods of sustained positive mass balances embedded in an overall negative trend over the past 105 years. The three periods of sustained positive mass balances (centered in the 1920s–1930s, in the 1980s and in the first decade of the 21st century) coincide with several documented glacier advances in this region. Similar trends observed in other shorter glacier mass-balance series suggest that the Echaurren Norte glacier reconstruction is representative of larger-scale conditions and could be useful for more detailed glaciological, hydrological and climatological assessments in this portion of the Andes.

scholarly journals Effect of summer accumulation on glacier mass balance on the Tibetan Plateau revealed by mass-balance model

2000 ◽  
Vol 46 (153) ◽  
pp. 244-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koji Fujita ◽  
Yutaka Ageta
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Arid Environment ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Central Plateau ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
Surface Mass

AbstractThe characteristics and sensitivities of a cold-based glacier on the Tibetan Plateau, where the summer monsoon provides most of the mass input to glaciers, are discussed using an energy-balance model incorporating the process of water refreezing. The model accurately represents the observational results related to the mass balance of Xiao Dongkemadi glacier on the central plateau during 1992/93. Our data revealed that the mass balance of cold glaciers cannot simply be described by the surface mass/heat balances, because about 20% of infiltrated water is refrozen and thus does not run off from the glacier. Model calculations demonstrate that glaciers in an arid environment can maintain their mass since the monsoon provides precipitation during the melting season. Snowfall in summer keeps surface albedo high and largely restrains ablation. Nevertheless, the calculations also make clear that glaciers on the plateau are more vulnerable than those of other regions because of summer accumulation. In the monsoon climate, warming would cause not only a decrease in accumulation, but also a drastic increase in ablation in combination with surface-albedo lowering. Therefore, although glaciers on and around the plateau can be sustained by summer accumulation, they are more vulnerable to warming than winter-accumulation-type glaciers.

scholarly journals Supraglacial debris thickness and supply rate in High-Mountain Asia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael McCarthy ◽  
Evan Miles ◽  
Marin Kneib ◽  
Pascal Buri ◽  
Stefan Fugger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Supply Rate ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Inverse Approach ◽  
Local Topography ◽  
Order Of Magnitude

Supraglacial debris strongly modulates glacier melt rates and can be decisive for ice dynamics and mountain hydrology. It is ubiquitous in High-Mountain Asia (HMA), yet because its thickness and supply rate from local topography are poorly known, our ability to forecast regional glacier change and streamflow is limited. Here we resolved the spatial distribution of supraglacial debris thickness (SDT) for 4401 glaciers in HMA for 2000-2016, via an inverse approach using a new dataset of glacier mass balance. We then determined debris-supply rate (DSR) to 3843 of those glaciers using a debris mass-balance model. Our results reveal high spatial variability in both SDT and DSR, with supraglacial debris most concentrated around Everest, and DSR highest in the Pamir-Alai. We demonstrate that DSR and, by extension, SDT increase with the temperature and slope of debris-supply slopes regionally and that SDT increases as ice flow decreases locally. Our centennial-scale estimates of DSR are an order of magnitude lower than millennial-scale estimates of headwall-erosion rate from 10Be cosmogenic nuclides, indicating that debris supply to the region's glaciers is highly episodic. We anticipate that our datasets will enable improved representation of the complex response of HMA's glaciers to climatic warming in future modelling efforts.

scholarly journals Glacier mass balance of Norway 1961-2010 calculated by a temperature-index model

2013 ◽  
Vol 54 (63) ◽  
pp. 32-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Engelhardt ◽  
Thomas V. Schuler ◽  
Liss M. Andreassen
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Comprehensive Overview ◽  
Temperature Index ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Index Model ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Index Approach

AbstractGlacier mass balance in Norway is only observed over a small portion (<15%) of the glacierized surface and only for short time periods (<10 years) for most sites. To provide a comprehensive overview of the temporal mass-balance evolution, we modeled surface mass balance for the glacierized area of mainland Norway from 1961 to 2010. The model is forced by operationally gridded daily temperature and precipitation fields which are available at 1 km horizontal resolution from 1957 until the present. The applied mass-balance model accounts for melting of snow and ice by using a distributed temperature-index approach. The precipitation input is corrected to obtain agreement between modeled and observed winter mass balance, and a melt factor and two radiation coefficients are optimized to the corresponding summer balance. The model results show positive trends of winter balance between 1961 and 2000 followed by a remarkable decrease in both summer and winter balances which resulted in an average annual balance of –0.86 ± 0.15 m w.e. a-1 between 2000 and 2010 after four decades of zero to slightly positive annual mass balances.

scholarly journals Long-range terrestrial laser scanning measurements of annual and intra-annual mass balances for Urumqi Glacier No. 1, eastern Tien Shan, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 2361-2383 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunhai Xu ◽  
Zhongqin Li ◽  
Huilin Li ◽  
Feiteng Wang ◽  
Ping Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Tien Shan ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balances ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Mass Conversion ◽  
Geodetic Mass Balance

Abstract. The direct glaciological method provides in situ observations of annual or seasonal surface mass balance, but can only be implemented through a succession of intensive in situ measurements of field networks of stakes and snow pits. This has contributed to glacier surface mass-balance measurements being sparse and often discontinuous in the Tien Shan. Nevertheless, long-term glacier mass-balance measurements are the basis for understanding climate–glacier interactions and projecting future water availability for glacierized catchments in the Tien Shan. Riegl VZ®-6000 long-range terrestrial laser scanner (TLS), typically using class 3B laser beams, is exceptionally well suited for repeated glacier mapping, and thus determination of annual and seasonal geodetic mass balance. This paper introduces the applied TLS for monitoring summer and annual surface elevation and geodetic mass changes of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 as well as delineating accurate glacier boundaries for 2 consecutive mass-balance years (2015–2017), and discusses the potential of such technology in glaciological applications. Three-dimensional changes of ice and firn–snow bodies and the corresponding densities were considered for the volume-to-mass conversion. The glacier showed pronounced thinning and mass loss for the four investigated periods; glacier-wide geodetic mass balance in the mass-balance year 2015–2016 was slightly more negative than in 2016–2017. Statistical comparison shows that agreement between the glaciological and geodetic mass balances can be considered satisfactory, indicating that the TLS system yields accurate results and has the potential to monitor remote and inaccessible glacier areas where no glaciological measurements are available as the vertical velocity component of the glacier is negligible. For wide applications of the TLS in glaciology, we should use stable scan positions and in-situ-measured densities of snow–firn to establish volume-to-mass conversion.

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