scholarly journals Evaluation of nitrogen oxides (NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>) sources and sinks and ozone production in Colombia and surrounding areas

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (15) ◽  
pp. 9441-9458
Author(s):  
Johannes G. M. Barten ◽  
Laurens N. Ganzeveld ◽  
Auke J. Visser ◽  
Rodrigo Jiménez ◽  
Maarten C. Krol

Abstract. In Colombia, industrialization and a shift towards intensified agriculture have led to increased emissions of air pollutants. However, the baseline state of air quality in Colombia is relatively unknown. In this study we aim to assess the baseline state of air quality in Colombia with a focus on the spatial and temporal variability in emissions and atmospheric burden of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) and evaluate surface NOx, ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) mixing ratios. We quantify the magnitude and spatial distribution of the four major NOx sources (lightning, anthropogenic activities, soil biogenic emissions and biomass burning) by integrating global NOx emission inventories into the mesoscale meteorology and atmospheric chemistry model, namely Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) coupled with Chemistry (collectively WRF-Chem), at a similar resolution (∼25 km) to the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) anthropogenic emission inventory and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) remote sensing observations. The model indicates the largest contribution by lightning emissions (1258 Gg N yr−1), even after already significantly reducing the emissions, followed by anthropogenic (933 Gg N yr−1), soil biogenic (187 Gg N yr−1) and biomass burning emissions (104 Gg N yr−1). The comparison with OMI remote sensing observations indicated a mean bias of tropospheric NO2 columns over the whole domain (WRF-Chem minus OMI) of 0.02 (90 % CI: [−0.43, 0.70]) ×1015 molecules cm−2, which is <5 % of the mean column. However, the simulated NO2 columns are overestimated and underestimated in regions where lightning and biomass burning emissions dominate, respectively. WRF-Chem was unable to capture NOx and CO urban pollutant mixing ratios, neither in timing nor in magnitude. Yet, WRF-Chem was able to simulate the urban diurnal cycle of O3 satisfactorily but with a systematic overestimation of 10 parts per billion (ppb) due to the equally large underestimation of NO mixing ratios and, consequently, titration. This indicates that these city environments are in the NOx-saturated regime with frequent O3 titration. We conducted sensitivity experiments with an online meteorology–chemistry single-column model (SCM) to evaluate how WRF-Chem subgrid-scale-enhanced emissions could explain an improved representation of the observed O3, CO and NOx diurnal cycles. Interestingly, the SCM simulation, showing especially a shallower nocturnal inversion layer, results in a better representation of the observed diurnal cycle of urban pollutant mixing ratios without an enhancement in emissions. This stresses that, besides application of higher-resolution emission inventories and model experiments, the diurnal cycle in boundary layer dynamics (and advection) should be critically evaluated in models such as WRF-Chem to assess urban air quality. Overall, we present a concise method to quantify air quality in regions with limited surface measurements by integrating in situ and remote sensing observations. This study identifies four distinctly different source regions and shows their interannual and seasonal variability during the last 1.5 decades. It serves as a base to assess scenarios of future air quality in Colombia or similar regions with contrasting emission regimes, complex terrain and a limited air quality monitoring network.

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes G. M. Barten ◽  
Laurens N. Ganzeveld ◽  
Auke J. Visser ◽  
Rodrigo Jiménez ◽  
Maarten C. Krol

Abstract. In Colombia, industrialization and a shift towards intensified agriculture have led to increased emissions of air pollutants. However, the baseline state of air quality in Colombia is relatively unknown. In this study we aim to assess the baseline state of air quality in Colombia with a focus on the spatial and temporal variability in emissions and atmospheric burden of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) and evaluate surface NOx, ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) mixing ratios. We quantify the magnitude and spatial distribution of the four major NOx sources (lightning, anthropogenic activities, soil biogenic emissions and biomass burning), by integrating global NOx emission inventories into the mesoscale meteorology and atmospheric chemistry model WRF-Chem. The comparison with in situ measurements is bound to urban areas whereas the use of remote sensing data allows to also evaluate air quality in remote regions. WRF-Chem was set up for a domain centered over Colombia with a similar resolution as OMI observed NO2 vertical columns as well as the EDGAR anthropogenic emission inventory, both providing information on a ~20 km resolution. However, this apparently poses a challenge regarding comparison with these urban observations. Air mass factors were recalculated based on the vertical distribution of NO2 within WRF-Chem, with respect to the coarse (1° x 1°) a priori profiles. The main reason for recalculation is a more consistent satellite-model comparison but it also reduced the mean bias. WRF-Chem was, on average, able to provide good estimates for tropospheric NO2 columns with an averaged difference of 0.02 x 1015 molecules cm-2, which is


2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 9345-9400 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Amnuaylojaroen ◽  
M. C. Barth ◽  
L. K. Emmons ◽  
G. R. Carmichael ◽  
J. Kreasuwun ◽  
...  

Abstract. In order to improve our understanding of air quality in Southeast Asia, the anthropogenic emissions inventory must be well represented. In this work, we apply different anthropogenic emission inventories in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) version 3.3 using MOZART gas-phase chemistry and GOCART aerosols to examine the differences in predicted carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3) surface mixing ratios for Southeast Asia in March and December 2008. The anthropogenic emission inventories include the Reanalysis of the TROpospheric chemical composition (RETRO), the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-Phase B (INTEX-B), the MACCity emissions (adapted from the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate and megacity Zoom for the Environment projects), the Southeast Asia Composition, Cloud, Climate Coupling Regional Study (SEAC4RS) emissions, and a combination of MACCity and SEAC4RS emissions. Biomass burning emissions are from the Fire Inventory from NCAR (FINNv1) model. WRF-chem reasonably predicts the 2 m temperature, 10 m wind, and precipitation. In general, surface CO is underpredicted by WRF-Chem while surface O3 is overpredicted. The NO2 tropospheric column predicted by WRF-Chem has the same magnitude as observations, but tends to underpredict NO2 column over the equatorial ocean and near Indonesia. Simulations using different anthropogenic emissions produce only a slight variability of O3 and CO mixing ratios, while biomass burning emissions add more variability. The different anthropogenic emissions differ by up to 20% in CO emissions, but O3 and CO mixing ratios differ by ~4.5% and ~8%, respectively, among the simulations. Biomass burning emissions create a substantial increase for both O3 and CO by ~29% and ~16%, respectively, when comparing the March biomass burning period to December with low biomass burning emissions. The simulations show that none of the anthropogenic emission inventories are better than the others and any of the examined inventories can be used for air quality simulations in Southeast Asia.


2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 3731-3743 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Mena-Carrasco ◽  
G. R. Carmichael ◽  
J. E. Campbell ◽  
D. Zimmerman ◽  
Y. Tang ◽  
...  

Abstract. The impact of Mexico City (MCMA) emissions is examined by studying its effects on air quality, photochemistry, and on ozone production regimes by combining model products and aircraft observations from the MILAGRO experiment during March 2006. The modeled influence of MCMA emissions to enhancements in surface level NOx, CO, and O3 concentrations (10–30% increase) are confined to distances <200 km, near surface. However, the extent of the influence is significantly larger at higher altitudes. Broader MCMA impacts (some 900 km Northeast of the city) are shown for specific outflow conditions in which enhanced ozone, NOy, and MTBE mixing ratios over the Gulf of Mexico are linked to MCMA by source tagged tracers and sensitivity runs. This study shows that the "footprint" of MCMA on average is fairly local, with exception to reactive nitrogen, which can be transported long range in the form of PAN, acting as a reservoir and source of NOx with important regional ozone formation implications. The simulated effect of MCMA emissions of anthropogenic aerosol on photochemistry showed a maximum regional decrease of 40% in J[NO2→NO+O], and resulting in the reduction of ozone production by 5–10%. Observed ozone production efficiencies are evaluated as a function of distance from MCMA, and by modeled influence from MCMA. These tend to be much lower closer to MCMA, or in those points where modeled contribution from MCMA is large. This research shows that MCMA emissions do effect on regional air quality and photochemistry, both contributing large amounts of ozone and its precursors, but with caveat that aerosol concentrations hinder formation of ozone to its potential due to its reduction in photolysis rates.


2010 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 2291-2314
Author(s):  
G. Sarwar ◽  
K. W. Appel ◽  
A. G. Carlton ◽  
R. Mathur ◽  
K. Schere ◽  
...  

Abstract. A new condensed toluene mechanism is incorporated into the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling system. Model simulations are performed using the CB05 chemical mechanism containing the existing (base) and the new toluene mechanism for the western and eastern US for a summer month. With current estimates of tropospheric emission burden, the new toluene mechanism increases monthly mean daily maximum 8-h ozone by 1.0–3.0 ppbv in Los Angeles, Portland, Seattle, Chicago, Cleveland, northeastern US, and Detroit compared to that with the base toluene chemistry. It reduces model mean bias for ozone at elevated observed ozone mixing ratios. While the new mechanism increases predicted ozone, it does not enhance ozone production efficiency. Sensitivity study suggests that it can further enhance ozone if elevated toluene emissions are present. While changes in total fine particulate mass are small, predictions of in-cloud SOA increase substantially.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imran A. Girach ◽  
Narendra Ojha ◽  
Prabha R. Nair ◽  
Andrea Pozzer ◽  
Yogesh K. Tiwari ◽  
...  

Abstract. We present ship-borne measurements of surface ozone, carbon monoxide and methane over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), the first time such measurements have been taken during the summer monsoon season, as a part of the Continental Tropical Convergence Zone (CTCZ) experiment during 2009. O3, CO, and CH4 mixing ratios exhibited significant spatial and temporal variability in the ranges of 8–54 nmol mol−1, 50–200 nmol mol−1, and 1.57–2.15 µmol mol−1, with means of 29.7 ± 6.8 nmol mol−1, 96 ± 25 nmol mol−1, and 1.83 ± 0.14 µmol mol−1, respectively. The average mixing ratios of trace gases over northern BoB (O3: 30 ± 7 nmol mol−1, CO: 95 ± 25 nmol mol−1, CH4: 1.86 ± 0.12 µmol mol−1), in airmasses from northern or central India, did not differ much from those over central BoB (O3: 27 ± 5 nmol mol−1, CO: 101 ± 27 nmol mol−1, CH4: 1.72 ± 0.14 µmol mol−1), in airmasses from southern India. Spatial variability is observed to be most significant for CH4. The ship-based observations, in conjunction with backward air trajectories and ground-based measurements over the Indian region, are analyzed to estimate a net ozone production of 1.5–4 nmol mol−1 day−1 in the outflow. Ozone mixing ratios over the BoB showed large reductions (by ~ 20 nmol mol−1) during four rainfall events. Temporal changes in the meteorological parameters, in conjunction with ozone vertical profiles, indicate that these low ozone events are associated with downdrafts of free-tropospheric ozone-poor airmasses. While the observed variations in O3 and CO are successfully reproduced using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), this model overestimates mean concentrations by about 20 %, generally overestimating O3 mixing ratios during the rainfall events. Analysis of the chemical tendencies from model simulations for a low-O3 event on August 10, 2009, captured successfully by the model, shows the key role of horizontal advection in rapidly transporting ozone-rich airmasses across the BoB. Our study fills a gap in the availability of trace gas measurements over the BoB, and when combined with data from previous campaigns, reveals large seasonal amplitude (~ 39 and ~ 207 nmol mol−1 for O3 and CO, respectively) over the northern BoB.


2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 3001-3025 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Yu ◽  
R. Mathur ◽  
G. Sarwar ◽  
D. Kang ◽  
D. Tong ◽  
...  

Abstract. A critical module of air quality models is the photochemical mechanism. In this study, the impact of the three photochemical mechanisms (CB4, CB05, SAPRC-99) on the Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model's forecast performance for O3, and its related precursors has been assessed over the eastern United States with observations obtained by aircraft (NOAA P-3 and NASA DC-8) flights, ship and two surface networks (AIRNow and AIRMAP) during the 2004 International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT) study. The results show that overall none of the mechanisms performs systematically better than the others. On the other hand, at the AIRNow surface sites, CB05 has the best performance with the normalized mean bias (NMB) of 3.9%, followed by CB4 (NMB=−5.7%) and SAPRC-99 (NMB=10.6%) for observed O3≥75 ppb, whereas CB4 has the best performance with the least overestimation for observed O3<75 ppb. On the basis of comparisons with aircraft P-3 measurements, there were consistent overestimations of O3, NOz, PAN and NOy and consistent underestimations of CO, HNO3, NO2, NO, SO2 and terpenes for all three mechanisms although the NMB values for each species and mechanisms were different. The results of aircraft DC-8 show that CB05 predicts the H2O2 mixing ratios most closely to the observations (NMB=10.8%), whereas CB4 and SAPRC-99 overestimated (NMB=74.7%) and underestimated (NMB=−25.5%) H2O2 mixing ratios significantly, respectively. For different air mass flows over the Gulf of Maine on the basis of the ship data, the three mechanisms have relatively better performance for O3, isoprene and SO2 for the clean marine or continental flows but relatively better performance for CO, NO2 and NO for southwesterly/westerly offshore flows. The results of the O3-NOz slopes over the ocean indicate that SAPRC-99 has the highest upper limits of the ozone production efficiency (εN) (5.8), followed by CB05 (4.5) and CB4 (4.0) although they are much lower than that inferred from the observation (11.8), being consistent with the fact that on average, SAPRC-99 produces the highest O3, followed by CB05 and CB4, across all O3 mixing ratio ranges


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simone M. Pieber ◽  
Dac-Loc Nguyen ◽  
Hendryk Czech ◽  
Stephan Henne ◽  
Nicolas Bukowiecki ◽  
...  

&lt;p&gt;Open biomass burning (BB) is a globally widespread phenomenon. The fires release pollutants, which are harmful for human and ecosystem health and alter the Earth's radiative balance. Yet, the impact of various types of BB on the global radiative forcing remains poorly constrained concerning greenhouse gas emissions, BB organic aerosol (OA) chemical composition and related light absorbing properties. Fire emissions composition is influenced by multiple factors (e.g., fuel and thereby vegetation-type, fuel moisture, fire temperature, available oxygen). Due to regional variations in these parameters, studies in different world regions are needed. Here we investigate the influence of seasonally recurring BB on trace gas concentration and air quality at the regional Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) station Pha Din (PDI) in rural Northwestern Vietnam. PDI is located in a sparsely populated area on the top of a hill (1466 m a.s.l.) and is well suited to study the large-scale fires on the Indochinese Peninsula, whose pollution plumes are frequently transported towards the site [1]. We present continuous trace gas observations of CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;, CH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt;, CO, and O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; conducted at PDI since 2014 and interpret the data with atmospheric transport simulations. Annually recurrent large scale BB leads to hourly time-scale peaks CO mixing ratios at PDI of 1000 to 1500 ppb around every April since the start of data collection in 2014. We complement this analysis with carbonaceous PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5 &lt;/sub&gt;chemical composition analyzed during an intensive campaign in March-April 2015. This includes measurements of elemental and organic carbon (EC/OC) and more than 50 organic markers, such as sugars, PAHs, fatty acids and nitro-aromatics [2]. For the intensive campaign, we linked CO, CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;, CH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; and O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; mixing ratios to a statistical classification of BB events, which is based on OA composition. We found increased CO and O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; levels during medium and high BB influence during the intensive campaign. A backward trajectory analysis confirmed different source regions for the identified periods based on the OA cluster. Typically, cleaner air masses arrived from northeast, i.e., mainland China and Yellow sea during the intensive campaign. The more polluted periods were characterized by trajectories from southwest, with more continental recirculation of the medium cluster, and more westerly advection for the high cluster. These findings highlight that BB activities in Northern Southeast Asia significantly enhances the regional OA loading, chemical PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5 &lt;/sub&gt;composition and the trace gases in northwestern Vietnam. The presented analysis adds valuable data on air quality in a region of scarce data availability.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;REFERENCES&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;[1] Bukowiecki, N. et al. Effect of Large-scale Biomass Burning on Aerosol Optical Properties at the GAW Regional Station Pha Din, Vietnam. AAQR. 19, 1172&amp;#8211;1187 (2019).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;[2] Nguyen, D. L, et al. Carbonaceous aerosol composition in air masses influenced by large-scale biomass burning: a case-study in Northwestern Vietnam. ACPD., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-1027, in review, 2020.&lt;/p&gt;


2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (23) ◽  
pp. 12983-13012 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Amnuaylojaroen ◽  
M. C. Barth ◽  
L. K. Emmons ◽  
G. R. Carmichael ◽  
J. Kreasuwun ◽  
...  

Abstract. In order to improve our understanding of air quality in Southeast Asia, the anthropogenic emissions inventory must be well represented. In this work, we apply different anthropogenic emission inventories in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) version 3.3 using Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers (MOZART) gas-phase chemistry and Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) aerosols to examine the differences in predicted carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3) surface mixing ratios for Southeast Asia in March and December 2008. The anthropogenic emission inventories include the Reanalysis of the TROpospheric chemical composition (RETRO), the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-Phase B (INTEX-B), the MACCity emissions (adapted from the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate and megacity Zoom for the Environment projects), the Southeast Asia Composition, Cloud, Climate Coupling Regional Study (SEAC4RS) emissions, and a combination of MACCity and SEAC4RS emissions. Biomass-burning emissions are from the Fire Inventory from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) (FINNv1) model. WRF-Chem reasonably predicts the 2 m temperature, 10 m wind, and precipitation. In general, surface CO is underpredicted by WRF-Chem while surface O3 is overpredicted. The NO2 tropospheric column predicted by WRF-Chem has the same magnitude as observations, but tends to underpredict the NO2 column over the equatorial ocean and near Indonesia. Simulations using different anthropogenic emissions produce only a slight variability of O3 and CO mixing ratios, while biomass-burning emissions add more variability. The different anthropogenic emissions differ by up to 30% in CO emissions, but O3 and CO mixing ratios averaged over the land areas of the model domain differ by ~4.5% and ~8%, respectively, among the simulations. Biomass-burning emissions create a substantial increase for both O3 and CO by ~29% and ~16%, respectively, when comparing the March biomass-burning period to the December period with low biomass-burning emissions. The simulations show that none of the anthropogenic emission inventories are better than the others for predicting O3 surface mixing ratios. However, the simulations with different anthropogenic emission inventories do differ in their predictions of CO surface mixing ratios producing variations of ~30% for March and 10–20% for December at Thai surface monitoring sites.


2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 13181-13199 ◽  
Author(s):  
Q. Liang ◽  
J. M. Rodriguez ◽  
A. R. Douglass ◽  
J. H. Crawford ◽  
J. R. Olson ◽  
...  

Abstract. We use aircraft observations obtained during the Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS) mission to examine the distributions and source attributions of O3 and NOy in the Arctic and sub-Arctic region. Using a number of marker tracers, we distinguish various air masses from the background troposphere and examine their contributions to NOx, O3, and O3 production in the Arctic troposphere. The background Arctic troposphere has a mean O3 of ~60 ppbv and NOx of ~25 pptv throughout spring and summer with CO decreasing from ~145 ppbv in spring to ~100 ppbv in summer. These observed mixing ratios are not notably different from the values measured during the 1988 ABLE-3A and the 2002 TOPSE field campaigns despite the significant changes in emissions and stratospheric ozone layer in the past two decades that influence Arctic tropospheric composition. Air masses associated with stratosphere-troposphere exchange are present throughout the mid and upper troposphere during spring and summer. These air masses, with mean O3 concentrations of 140–160 ppbv, are significant direct sources of O3 in the Arctic troposphere. In addition, air of stratospheric origin displays net O3 formation in the Arctic due to its sustainable, high NOx (75 pptv in spring and 110 pptv in summer) and NOy (~800 pptv in spring and ~1100 pptv in summer). The air masses influenced by the stratosphere sampled during ARCTAS-B also show conversion of HNO3 to PAN. This active production of PAN is the result of increased degradation of ethane in the stratosphere-troposphere mixed air mass to form CH3CHO, followed by subsequent formation of PAN under high NOx conditions. These findings imply that an adequate representation of stratospheric NOy input, in addition to stratospheric O3 influx, is essential to accurately simulate tropospheric Arctic O3, NOx and PAN in chemistry transport models. Plumes influenced by recent anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions observed during ARCTAS show highly elevated levels of hydrocarbons and NOy (mostly in the form of NOx and PAN), but do not contain O3 higher than that in the Arctic tropospheric background except some aged biomass burning plumes sampled during spring. Convection and/or lightning influences are negligible sources of O3 in the Arctic troposphere but can have significant impacts in the upper troposphere in the continental sub-Arctic during summer.


2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 2175-2198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanouil Oikonomakis ◽  
Sebnem Aksoyoglu ◽  
Giancarlo Ciarelli ◽  
Urs Baltensperger ◽  
André Stephan Henry Prévôt

Abstract. High surface ozone concentrations, which usually occur when photochemical ozone production takes place, pose a great risk to human health and vegetation. Air quality models are often used by policy makers as tools for the development of ozone mitigation strategies. However, the modeled ozone production is often not or not enough evaluated in many ozone modeling studies. The focus of this work is to evaluate the modeled ozone production in Europe indirectly, with the use of the ozone–temperature correlation for the summer of 2010 and to analyze its sensitivity to precursor emissions and meteorology by using the regional air quality model, the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx). The results show that the model significantly underestimates the observed high afternoon surface ozone mixing ratios (≥ 60 ppb) by 10–20 ppb and overestimates the lower ones (< 40 ppb) by 5–15 ppb, resulting in a misleading good agreement with the observations for average ozone. The model also underestimates the ozone–temperature regression slope by about a factor of 2 for most of the measurement stations. To investigate the impact of emissions, four scenarios were tested: (i) increased volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by a factor of 1.5 and 2 for the anthropogenic and biogenic VOC emissions, respectively, (ii) increased nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions by a factor of 2, (iii) a combination of the first two scenarios and (iv) increased traffic-only NOx emissions by a factor of 4. For southern, eastern, and central (except the Benelux area) Europe, doubling NOx emissions seems to be the most efficient scenario to reduce the underestimation of the observed high ozone mixing ratios without significant degradation of the model performance for the lower ozone mixing ratios. The model performance for ozone–temperature correlation is also better when NOx emissions are doubled. In the Benelux area, however, the third scenario (where both NOx and VOC emissions are increased) leads to a better model performance. Although increasing only the traffic NOx emissions by a factor of 4 gave very similar results to the doubling of all NOx emissions, the first scenario is more consistent with the uncertainties reported by other studies than the latter, suggesting that high uncertainties in NOx emissions might originate mainly from the road-transport sector rather than from other sectors. The impact of meteorology was examined with three sensitivity tests: (i) increased surface temperature by 4 ∘C, (ii) reduced wind speed by 50 % and (iii) doubled wind speed. The first two scenarios led to a consistent increase in all surface ozone mixing ratios, thus improving the model performance for the high ozone values but significantly degrading it for the low ozone values, while the third scenario had exactly the opposite effects. Overall, the modeled ozone is predicted to be more sensitive to its precursor emissions (especially traffic NOx) and therefore their uncertainties, which seem to be responsible for the model underestimation of the observed high ozone mixing ratios and ozone production.


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