scholarly journals Interhemispheric differences of mesosphere–lower thermosphere winds and tides investigated from three whole-atmosphere models and meteor radar observations

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (18) ◽  
pp. 13855-13902
Author(s):  
Gunter Stober ◽  
Ales Kuchar ◽  
Dimitry Pokhotelov ◽  
Huixin Liu ◽  
Han-Li Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Lower Thermosphere ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Meteor Radar ◽  
Radar Observations ◽  
Seasonal Characteristics

Abstract. Long-term and continuous observations of mesospheric–lower thermospheric winds are rare, but they are important to investigate climatological changes at these altitudes on timescales of several years, covering a solar cycle and longer. Such long time series are a natural heritage of the mesosphere–lower thermosphere climate, and they are valuable to compare climate models or long-term runs of general circulation models (GCMs). Here we present a climatological comparison of wind observations from six meteor radars at two conjugate latitudes to validate the corresponding mean winds and atmospheric diurnal and semidiurnal tides from three GCMs, namely the Ground-to-Topside Model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA), the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Extension (Specified Dynamics) (WACCM-X(SD)), and the Upper Atmosphere ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (UA-ICON) model. Our results indicate that there are interhemispheric differences in the seasonal characteristics of the diurnal and semidiurnal tide. There are also some differences in the mean wind climatologies of the models and the observations. Our results indicate that GAIA shows reasonable agreement with the meteor radar observations during the winter season, whereas WACCM-X(SD) shows better agreement with the radars for the hemispheric zonal summer wind reversal, which is more consistent with the meteor radar observations. The free-running UA-ICON tends to show similar winds and tides compared to WACCM-X(SD).

scholarly journals Interhemispheric differences of mesosphere/lower thermosphere winds and tides investigated from three whole atmosphere models and meteor radar observations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunter Stober ◽  
Ales Kuchar ◽  
Dimitry Pokhotelov ◽  
Huixin Liu ◽  
Han-Li Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Lower Thermosphere ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Meteor Radar ◽  
Radar Observations ◽  
Seasonal Characteristics

Abstract. Long-term and continuous observations of mesospheric/lower thermospheric winds are rare, but they are important to investigate climatological changes at these altitudes on time scales of several years, covering a solar cycle and longer. Such long time series are a natural heritage of the mesosphere/lower thermosphere climate, and they are valuable to compare climate models or long term runs of general circulation models (GCMs). Here we present a climatological comparison of wind observations from six meteor radars at two conjugate latitudes to validate the corresponding mean winds and atmospheric diurnal and semidiurnal tides from three GCMs, namely Ground-to-Topside Model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA), Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Extension (Specified Dynamics) (WACCM-X(SD)) and Upper Atmosphere ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (UA-ICON) model. Our results indicate that there are interhemispheric differences in the seasonal characteristics of the diurnal and semidiurnal tide. There also are some differences in the mean wind climatologies of the models and the observations. Our results indicate that GAIA shows a reasonable agreement with the meteor radar observations during the winter season, whereas WACCM-X(SD) shows a better agreement with the radars for the hemispheric zonal summer wind reversal, which is more consistent with the meteor radar observations. The free running UA-ICON tends to show similar winds and tides compared to WACCM-X(SD).

scholarly journals Winds and tides of the Extended Unified Model in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere validated with meteor radar observations

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 487-514
Author(s):  
Matthew J. Griffith ◽  
Shaun M. Dempsey ◽  
David R. Jackson ◽  
Tracy Moffat-Griffin ◽  
Nicholas J. Mitchell
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Wave ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Lower Thermosphere ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Unified Model ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Meteor Radar ◽  
Radar Observations ◽  
Mesosphere And Lower Thermosphere

Abstract. The mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) is a critical region that must be accurately reproduced in general circulation models (GCMs) that aim to include the coupling between the lower and middle atmosphere and the thermosphere. An accurate representation of the MLT is thus important for improved climate modelling and the development of a whole atmosphere model. This is because the atmospheric waves at these heights are particularly large, and so the energy and momentum they carry is an important driver of climatological phenomena through the whole atmosphere, affecting terrestrial and space weather. The Extended Unified Model (ExUM) is the recently developed version of the Met Office's Unified Model which has been extended to model the MLT. The capability of the ExUM to model atmospheric winds and tides in the MLT is currently unknown. Here, we present the first study of winds and tides from the ExUM. We make a comparison against meteor radar observations of winds and tides from 2006 between 80 and 100 km over two radar stations – Rothera (68∘ S, 68∘ W) and Ascension Island (8∘ S, 14∘ W). These locations are chosen to study tides in two very different tidal regimes – the equatorial regime, where the diurnal (24 h) tide dominates, and the polar regime, where the semi-diurnal (12 h) tide dominates. The results of this study illustrate that the ExUM is capable of reproducing atmospheric winds and tides that capture many of the key characteristics seen in meteor radar observations, such as zonal and meridional wind maxima and minima, the increase in tidal amplitude with increasing height, and the decrease in tidal phase with increasing height. In particular, in the equatorial regime some essential characteristics of the background winds, tidal amplitudes and tidal phases are well captured but with significant differences in detail. In the polar regime, the difference is more pronounced. The ExUM zonal background winds in austral winter are primarily westward rather than eastward, and in austral summer they are larger than observed above 90 km. The ExUM tidal amplitudes here are in general consistent with observed values, but they are also larger than observed values above 90 km in austral summer. The tidal phases are generally well replicated in this regime. We propose that the bias in background winds in the polar regime is a consequence of the lack of in situ gravity wave generation to generate eastward fluxes in the MLT. The results of this study indicate that the ExUM has a good natural capability for modelling atmospheric winds and tides in the MLT but that there is room for improvement in the model physics in this region. This highlights the need for modifications to the physical parameterization schemes used in the model in this region – such as the non-orographic spectral gravity wave scheme – to improve aspects such as polar circulation. To this end, we make specific recommendations of changes that can be implemented to improve the accuracy of the ExUM in the MLT.

scholarly journals Winds and Tides of the Extended Unified Model in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Validated with Meteor Radar Observations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew J. Griffith ◽  
Shaun M. Dempsey ◽  
David R. Jackson ◽  
Tracy Moffat-Griffin ◽  
Nicholas J. Mitchell
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Wave ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Lower Thermosphere ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Unified Model ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Meteor Radar ◽  
Radar Observations ◽  
Mesosphere And Lower Thermosphere

Abstract. The Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere (MLT) is a critical region that must be accurately reproduced in General Circulation Models (GCMs) that aim to include the coupling between the lower & middle atmosphere and the thermosphere. An accurate representation of the MLT is important for improved climate modelling and the development of a whole atmosphere model. This is because the atmospheric waves at these heights are particularly large, and so the energy and momentum they carry is an important driver of climatological phenomena through the whole atmosphere, affecting terrestrial and space weather. The Extended Unified Model (ExUM) is the recently developed version of the Met Office's Unified Model which has been extended to model the MLT. The capability of the ExUM to model atmospheric winds and tides in the MLT is currently unknown. Here, we present the first study of winds & tides from the ExUM. We make a comparison against meteor radar observations of winds and tides from 2006 between 80 and 100 km over two radar stations – Rothera (68° S, 68° W) and Ascension Island (8° S, 14° W). These locations are chosen to study tides in two very different tidal regimes – the equatorial regime, where the diurnal (24 hour) tide dominates, and the polar regime, where the semi-diurnal (12 hour) tide dominates. The results of this study illustrate that the ExUM is capable of reproducing atmospheric winds and tides that capture many of the key characteristics seen in meteor radar observations, such as zonal & meridional wind maxima and minima, the increase in tidal amplitude with increasing height, and the decrease in tidal phase with increasing height. In particular, in the equatorial regime some essential characteristics of the background winds, tidal amplitudes and tidal phases are well captured, but with significant differences in detail. In the polar regime, the difference is more pronounced. The ExUM zonal background winds in austral winter are primarily eastward rather than westward, and in austral summer are larger than observed above 90 km. The ExUM tidal amplitudes here are in general consistent with observed values, but are also larger than observed values above 90 km in austral summer. The tidal phases are generally well replicated in this regime. We propose that the bias in background winds in the polar regime is a consequence of the lack of in-situ gravity wave generation to generate eastward fluxes in the MLT. The results of this study indicate that the ExUM has a good natural capability for modelling atmospheric winds and tides in the MLT, but that there is room for improvement in the model physics in this region. This highlights the need for modifications to the physical parameterization schemes used in the model in this region – such as the non-orographic spectral gravity wave scheme – to improve aspects such as polar circulation. To this end, we make specific recommendations of changes that can be implemented to improve the accuracy of the ExUM in the MLT.

scholarly journals Interhemispheric comparison of mesosphere/lower thermosphere winds from GAIA, WACCM-X and ICON-UA simulations and meteor radar observations at mid- and polar latitudes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunter Stober ◽  
Ales Kuchar ◽  
Dimitry Pokhotelov ◽  
Huixin Liu ◽  
Hanli Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Lower Thermosphere ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Meteor Radar ◽  
Radar Observations ◽  
Meridional Winds ◽  
Free Running ◽  
Seasonal Characteristic

<p>There is a growing scientific interest to investigate the forcing from the middle atmosphere dynamics on the thermosphere and ionosphere. This forcing is driven by atmospheric waves at various temporal and spatial scales. In this study, we cross-compare the nudged models Ground-to-topside model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA) and Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Extended</p><p>Version (Specified dynamics) ( WACCM-X(SD)), a free-running version of Upper Atmosphere ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (ICON-UA) with six meteor radars located at conjugate polar and mid-latitudes. Mean winds, diurnal and semidiurnal tidal amplitudes and phases were obtained from the radar observations at the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) and compared to the GAIA, WACCM-X(SD), and ICON-UA data for similar locations applying a harmonized diagnostic.</p><p>Our results indicate that GAIA zonal and meridional winds show a good agreement to the meteor radars during the winter season on both hemispheres, whereas WACCM-X(SD) and ICON-UA seem to reproduce better the summer zonal wind reversal. However, the mean winds also exhibit some deviation in the seasonal characteristic concerning the meteor radar measurements, which are attributed to the gravity wave parameterizations implemented in the models. All three models tend to reflect the seasonality of diurnal tidal amplitudes, but show some dissimilarities in tidal phases. We also found systematic interhemispheric differences in the seasonal characteristic of semidiurnal amplitudes and phases. The free-running ICON-UA apparently shows most of these interhemispheric differences, whereas WACCM-X(SD) and GAIA trend to have better agreement of the semidiurnal tidal variability in the northern hemisphere.</p>

scholarly journals Net effect of the QBO in a chemistry climate model

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (21) ◽  
pp. 6505-6525 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. J. Punge ◽  
M. A. Giorgetta
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Meridional Circulation ◽  
Vortex Formation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of zonal wind is a prominent mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere. It affects not only the meridional circulation and temperature over a wide latitude range but also the transport and chemistry of trace gases such as ozone. Compared to a QBO less circulation, the long-term climatological means of these quantities are also different. These climatological net effects of the QBO can be studied in general circulation models that extend into the middle atmosphere and have a chemistry and transport component, so-called Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs). In this work we show that the CCM MAECHAM4-CHEM can reproduce the observed QBO variations in temperature and ozone mole fractions when nudged towards observed winds. In particular, it is shown that the QBO signal in transport of nitrogen oxides NOx plays an important role in reproducing the observed ozone QBO, which features a phase reversal slightly below the level of maximum of the ozone mole fraction in the tropics. We then compare two 20-year experiments with the MAECHAM4-CHEM model that differ by including or not including the QBO. The mean wind fields differ between the two model runs, especially during summer and fall seasons in both hemispheres. The differences in the wind field lead to differences in the meridional circulation, by the same mechanism that causes the QBO's secondary meridional circulation, and thereby affect mean temperatures and the mean transport of tracers. In the tropics, the net effect on ozone is mostly due to net differences in upwelling and, higher up, the associated temperature change. We show that a net surplus of up to 15% in NOx in the tropics above 10 hPa in the experiment that includes the QBO does not lead to significantly different volume mixing ratios of ozone. We also note a slight increase in the southern vortex strength as well as earlier vortex formation in northern winter. Polar temperatures differ accordingly. Differences in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and in further trace gas concentrations are analysed. Our findings underline the importance of a representation of the QBO in CCMs.

scholarly journals Net effect of the QBO in a chemistry climate model

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 12115-12162 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. J. Punge ◽  
M. A. Giorgetta
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Meridional Circulation ◽  
Vortex Formation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of zonal wind is a prominent mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere. It affects not only the meridional circulation and temperature over a wide latitude range but also the transport and chemistry of trace gases such as ozone. Compared to a QBO less circulation, the long-term climatological means of these quantities are also different. These climatological net effects of the QBO can be studied in general circulation models that extend into the middle atmosphere and have a chemistry and transport component, so-called Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs). In this work we show that the CCM MAECHAM4-CHEM can reproduce the observed QBO variations in temperature and ozone mole fractions when nudged towards observed winds. In particular, it is shown that the QBO signal in transport of nitrogen oxides NOx plays an important role in reproducing the observed ozone QBO, which features a phase reversal slightly below the maximum of the ozone mole fraction in the tropics. We then compare two 20-year experiments with the MAECHAM4-CHEM model that differ by including or not including the QBO. The mean wind fields differ between the two model runs, especially during summer and fall on both hemispheres. The differences in the wind field lead to differences in the meridional circulation, by the same mechanism that causes the QBO's secondary meridional circulation, and thereby affecting mean temperatures and the mean transport of tracers. In the tropics, the net effect on ozone is mostly due to net differences in upwelling and, higher up, the associated temperature change. We show that a net surplus of up to 15% in NOx in the tropics above 10 hPa in the experiment that includes the QBO does not lead to significantly different volume mixing ratios of ozone. We also note a slight increase in the southern vortex strength as well as earlier vortex formation in northern winter. Polar temperatures differ accordingly. Differences in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and in further trace gas concentrations are analysed. Our findings underline the importance of a representation of the QBO in CCMs.

scholarly journals Retrospective forecasts of the upcoming winter season snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters (European Alps)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristian Förster ◽  
Florian Hanzer ◽  
Elena Stoll ◽  
Adam A. Scaife ◽  
Craig MacLachlan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
European Alps ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Estimation Model

Abstract. This article presents analyses of retrospective seasonal forecasts of snow accumulation. Re-forecasts with 4 months lead time from two coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (NCEP CFSv2 and MetOffice GloSea5) drive the Alpine Water balance and Runoff Estimation model (AWARE) in order to predict mid-winter snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters. As the snowpack is a hydrological storage that evolves during the winter season, it is strongly dependent on precipitation totals of the previous months. Climate model (CM) predictions of precipitation totals integrated from November to February (NDJF) compare reasonably well with observations. This predictive skill is retained in subsequent water balance simulations when snow water equivalent (SWE) in February is considered. Given the AWARE simulations driven by observed meteorological fields as a benchmark for SWE analyses, the correlation achieved using GloSea5-AWARE SWE predictions is r = 0.57. The tendency of SWE anomalies (i.e. the sign of anomalies) is correctly predicted in 11 of 13 years. For CFSv2, the corresponding values are r = 0.28 and 7 of 13 years. The results suggest that some seasonal predictions may be capable of predicting tendencies of hydrological model storages in parts of Europe.

scholarly journals On the potential use of glacier and permafrost observations for verification of climate models

1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 400-406 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Beniston ◽  
Wilfried Haeberli ◽  
Martin Hoelzle ◽  
Alan Taylor
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Model Verification ◽  
Dominant Feature

While the capability of global and regional climate models in reproducing current climate has significantly improved over the past few years, the confidence in model results for remote regions, or those where complex orography is a dominant feature, is still relatively low. This is, in part, linked to the lack of observational data for model verification and intercomparison purposes.Glacier and permafrost observations are directly related to past and present energy flux patterns at the Earth-atmosphere interface and could be used as a proxy for air temperature and precipitation, particularly of value in remote mountain regions and boreal and Arctic zones where instrumental climate records are sparse or non-existent. It is particularly important to verify climate-model performance in these regions, as this is where most general circulation models (GCMs) predict the greatest changes in air temperatures in a warmer global climate.Existing datasets from glacier and permafrost monitoring sites in remote and high altitudes are described in this paper; the data could be used in model-verification studies, as a means to improving model performance in these regions.

scholarly journals Retrospective forecasts of the upcoming winter season snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters (European Alps)

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 1157-1173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristian Förster ◽  
Florian Hanzer ◽  
Elena Stoll ◽  
Adam A. Scaife ◽  
Craig MacLachlan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
European Alps ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Estimation Model

Abstract. This article presents analyses of retrospective seasonal forecasts of snow accumulation. Re-forecasts with 4 months' lead time from two coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (NCEP CFSv2 and MetOffice GloSea5) drive the Alpine Water balance and Runoff Estimation model (AWARE) in order to predict mid-winter snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters. As snowpack is hydrological storage that evolves during the winter season, it is strongly dependent on precipitation totals of the previous months. Climate model (CM) predictions of precipitation totals integrated from November to February (NDJF) compare reasonably well with observations. Even though predictions for precipitation may not be significantly more skilful than for temperature, the predictive skill achieved for precipitation is retained in subsequent water balance simulations when snow water equivalent (SWE) in February is considered. Given the AWARE simulations driven by observed meteorological fields as a benchmark for SWE analyses, the correlation achieved using GloSea5-AWARE SWE predictions is r = 0.57. The tendency of SWE anomalies (i.e. the sign of anomalies) is correctly predicted in 11 of 13 years. For CFSv2-AWARE, the corresponding values are r = 0.28 and 7 of 13 years. The results suggest that some seasonal prediction of hydrological model storage tendencies in parts of Europe is possible.

scholarly journals Characterizing Sierra Nevada Snowpack Using Variable-Resolution CESM

2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 173-196 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan M. Rhoades ◽  
Xingying Huang ◽  
Paul A. Ullrich ◽  
Colin M. Zarzycki
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Variable Resolution

AbstractThe location, timing, and intermittency of precipitation in California make the state integrally reliant on winter-season snowpack accumulation to maintain its economic and agricultural livelihood. Of particular concern is that winter-season snowpack has shown a net decline across the western United States over the past 50 years, resulting in major uncertainty in water-resource management heading into the next century. Cutting-edge tools are available to help navigate and preemptively plan for these uncertainties. This paper uses a next-generation modeling technique—variable-resolution global climate modeling within the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM)—at horizontal resolutions of 0.125° (14 km) and 0.25° (28 km). VR-CESM provides the means to include dynamically large-scale atmosphere–ocean drivers, to limit model bias, and to provide more accurate representations of regional topography while doing so in a more computationally efficient manner than can be achieved with conventional general circulation models. This paper validates VR-CESM at climatological and seasonal time scales for Sierra Nevada snowpack metrics by comparing them with the “Daymet,” “Cal-Adapt,” NARR, NCEP, and North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) reanalysis datasets, the MODIS remote sensing dataset, the SNOTEL observational dataset, a standard-practice global climate model (CESM), and a regional climate model (WRF Model) dataset. Overall, given California’s complex terrain and intermittent precipitation and that both of the VR-CESM simulations were only constrained by prescribed sea surface temperatures and data on sea ice extent, a 0.68 centered Pearson product-moment correlation, a negative mean SWE bias of <7 mm, an interquartile range well within the values exhibited in the reanalysis datasets, and a mean December–February extent of snow cover that is within 7% of the expected MODIS value together make apparent the efficacy of the VR-CESM framework.

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