scholarly journals NOGAPS-ALPHA model simulations of stratospheric ozone during the SOLVE2 campaign

2004 ◽  
Vol 4 (9/10) ◽  
pp. 2401-2423 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. P. McCormack ◽  
S. D. Eckermann ◽  
L. Coy ◽  
D. R. Allen ◽  
Y.-J. Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gas Phase ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Aircraft Measurements ◽  
First Case ◽  
Nwp Model ◽  
January Event

Abstract. This paper presents three-dimensional prognostic O3 simulations with parameterized gas-phase photochemistry from the new NOGAPS-ALPHA middle atmosphere forecast model. We compare 5-day NOGAPS-ALPHA hindcasts of stratospheric O3 with satellite and DC-8 aircraft measurements for two cases during the SOLVE II campaign: (1) the cold, isolated vortex during 11-16 January 2003; and (2) the rapidly developing stratospheric warming of 17-22 January 2003. In the first case we test three different photochemistry parameterizations. NOGAPS-ALPHA O3 simulations using the NRL-CHEM2D parameterization give the best agreement with SAGE III and POAM III profile measurements. 5-day NOGAPS-ALPHA hindcasts of polar O3 initialized with the NASA GEOS4 analyses produce better agreement with observations than do the operational ECMWF O3 forecasts of case 1. For case 2, both NOGAPS-ALPHA and ECMWF 114-h forecasts of the split vortex structure in lower stratospheric O3 on 21 January 2003 show comparable skill. Updated ECMWF O3 forecasts of this event at hour 42 display marked improvement from the 114-h forecast; corresponding updated 42-hour NOGAPS-ALPHA prognostic O3 fields initialized with the GEOS4 analyses do not improve significantly. When NOGAPS-ALPHA prognostic O3 is initialized with the higher resolution ECMWF O3 analyses, the NOGAPS-ALPHA 42-hour lower stratospheric O3 fields closely match the operational 42-hour ECMWF O3 forecast of the 21 January event. We find that stratospheric O3 forecasts at high latitudes in winter can depend on both model initial conditions and the treatment of photochemistry over periods of 1-5 days. Overall, these results show that the new O3 initialization, photochemistry parameterization, and spectral transport in the NOGAPS-ALPHA NWP model can provide reliable short-range stratospheric O3 forecasts during Arctic winter.

scholarly journals NOGAPS-ALPHA model simulations of stratospheric ozone during the SOLVE2 campaign

2004 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 4227-4284
Author(s):  
J. P. McCormack ◽  
S. D. Eckermann ◽  
L. Coy ◽  
D. R. Allen ◽  
Y.-J. Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Marked Improvement ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Aircraft Measurements ◽  
Tracer Transport ◽  
First Case ◽  
Polar Ozone

Abstract. This paper presents three-dimensional prognostic ozone simulations with parameterized photochemistry from the new NOGAPS-ALPHA middle atmosphere forecast model. We compare 5-day NOGAPS-ALPHA hindcasts of stratospheric ozone with a combination of satellite and DC-8 aircraft measurements for two specific cases during the SOLVE II campaign: (1) the cold, isolated vortex during 11–16 January 2003; and (2) the rapidly developing stratospheric warming of 17–22 January 2003. In the first case we test three different photochemistry parameterizations. NOGAPS-ALPHA ozone simulations using the NRL-CHEM2D parameterization give the best overall agreement with SAGE III and POAM III profile measurements. 5-day NOGAPS-ALPHA hindcasts of polar ozone initialized with the NASA GEOS4 ozone analyses produce better agreement with observations than do the operational ECMWF ozone forecasts. In the second case, comparisons between NOGAPS-ALPHA and ECMWF 114-h forecasts of the split vortex structure in stratospheric ozone on 21 January 2003 show comparable skill. Updated ECMWF ozone forecasts of this case at hour 42 display marked improvement from the 114-h forecast; corresponding updated 42-h NOGAPS-ALPHA prognostic ozone simulations do not improve significantly. In general, these results demonstrate that the spectral advection component in NOGAPS-ALPHA is well-suited for middle atmosphere tracer transport. In particular, we find that stratospheric ozone forecasts at high latitudes in winter can depend on both model initial conditions and the treatment of photochemistry even over a period of 5 days.

scholarly journals Assimilation of stratospheric and mesospheric temperatures from MLS and SABER into a global NWP model

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 8455-8490 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. W. Hoppel ◽  
N. L. Baker ◽  
L. Coy ◽  
S. D. Eckermann ◽  
J. P. McCormack ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Altitude ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Temperature Structure ◽  
Deep Circulation ◽  
Zonal Winds ◽  
Mesospheric Temperature ◽  
Standard Deviations ◽  
Nwp Model

Abstract. The forecast model and three-dimensional variational data assimilation components of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) have each been extended into the upper stratosphere and mesosphere to form an Advanced Level Physics High Altitude (ALPHA) version of NOGAPS extending to ~100 km. This NOGAPS-ALPHA NWP prototype is used to assimilate stratospheric and mesospheric temperature data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Radiometry (SABER) instruments. A 60-day analysis period in January and February, 2006, was chosen that includes a well documented stratospheric sudden warming. SABER temperatures indicate that the SSW caused the polar winter stratopause at ~40 km to disappear, then reform at ~80 km altitude and slowly descend during February. The NOGAPS-ALPHA analysis reproduces this observed stratospheric and mesospheric temperature structure, as well as realistic evolution of zonal winds, residual velocities, and Eliassen-Palm fluxes that aid interpretation of the vertically deep circulation and eddy flux anomalies that developed in response to this wave-breaking event. The observation minus forecast (O-F) standard deviations for MLS and SABER are ~2 K in the mid-stratosphere and increase monotonically to about 6 K in the upper mesosphere. Increasing O-F standard deviations in the mesosphere are expected due to increasing instrument error and increasing geophysical variance at small spatial scales in the forecast model. In the mid/high latitude winter regions, 10-day forecast skill is improved throughout the upper stratosphere and mesosphere when the model is initialized using the high-altitude analysis based on assimilation of both SABER and MLS data.

scholarly journals Stratospheric ozone depletion during the 1995–1996 Arctic winter: 3-D simulations on the potential role of different PSC types

2001 ◽  
Vol 19 (9) ◽  
pp. 1163-1181 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Hendricks ◽  
F. Baier ◽  
G. Günther ◽  
B. C. Krüger ◽  
A. Ebel
Keyword(s):  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Particle Growth ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Formation Mechanisms ◽  
Three Dimensional Model ◽  
Type Ia

Abstract. The sensitivity of modelled ozone depletion in the winter Arctic stratosphere to different assumptions of prevalent PSC types and PSC formation mechanisms is investigated. Three-dimensional simulations of the winter 1995/96 are performed with the COlogne Model of the Middle Atmosphere (COMMA) by applying different PSC microphysical schemes. Model runs are carried out considering either liquid or solid PSC particles or a combined microphysical scheme. These simulations are then compared to a model run which only takes into account binary sulfate aerosols. The results obtained with the three-dimensional model agree with trajectory-box simulations performed in previous studies. The simulations suggest that conditions appropriate for type Ia PSC existence (T < TNAT ) occur over longer periods and cover larger areas when compared to conditions of potential type Ib PSC existence. Significant differences in chlorine activation and ozone depletion occur between the simulations including only either liquid or solid PSC particles. The largest differences, occurring over large spatial scales and during prolonged time periods, are modelled first, when the stratospheric temperatures stay below TNAT , but above the threshold of effective liquid particle growth and second, in the case of the stratospheric temperatures remaining below this threshold, but not falling below the ice frost point. It can be generally concluded from the present study that differences in PSC microphysical schemes can cause significant fluctuations in ozone depletion modelled for the winter Arctic stratosphere.Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (aerosols and particles; cloud physics and chemistry; middle atmosphere composition and chemistry)

scholarly journals Analysis and Forecast of a Tornadic Thunderstorm Using Multiple Doppler Radar Data, 3DVAR, and ARPS Model

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Edward Natenberg ◽  
Jidong Gao ◽  
Ming Xue ◽  
Frederick H. Carr
Keyword(s):  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Advanced Regional Prediction System ◽  
Regional Prediction ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Nwp Model ◽  
The Impact

A three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) assimilation technique developed for a convective-scale NWP model—advanced regional prediction system (ARPS)—is used to analyze the 8 May 2003, Moore/Midwest City, Oklahoma tornadic supercell thunderstorm. Previous studies on this case used only one or two radars that are very close to this storm. However, three other radars observed the upper-level part of the storm. Because these three radars are located far away from the targeted storm, they were overlooked by previous studies. High-frequency intermittent 3DVAR analyses are performed using the data from five radars that together provide a more complete picture of this storm. The analyses capture a well-defined mesocyclone in the midlevels and the wind circulation associated with a hook-shaped echo. The analyses produced through this technique are used as initial conditions for a 40-minute storm-scale forecast. The impact of multiple radars on a short-term NWP forecast is most evident when compared to forecasts using data from only one and two radars. The use of all radars provides the best forecast in which a strong low-level mesocyclone develops and tracks in close proximity to the actual tornado damage path.

scholarly journals Assimilation of stratospheric and mesospheric temperatures from MLS and SABER into a global NWP model

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (20) ◽  
pp. 6103-6116 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. W. Hoppel ◽  
N. L. Baker ◽  
L. Coy ◽  
S. D. Eckermann ◽  
J. P. McCormack ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Altitude ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Temperature Structure ◽  
Deep Circulation ◽  
Broadband Emission ◽  
Mesospheric Temperature ◽  
Standard Deviations ◽  
Nwp Model

Abstract. The forecast model and three-dimensional variational data assimilation components of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) have each been extended into the upper stratosphere and mesosphere to form an Advanced Level Physics High Altitude (ALPHA) version of NOGAPS extending to ~100 km. This NOGAPS-ALPHA NWP prototype is used to assimilate stratospheric and mesospheric temperature data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instruments. A 60-day analysis period in January and February 2006, was chosen that includes a well documented stratospheric sudden warming. SABER and MLS temperatures indicate that the SSW caused the polar winter stratopause at ~40 km to disappear, then reform at ~80 km altitude and slowly descend during February. The NOGAPS-ALPHA analysis reproduces this observed stratospheric and mesospheric temperature structure, as well as realistic evolution of zonal winds, residual velocities, and Eliassen-Palm fluxes that aid interpretation of the vertically deep circulation and eddy flux anomalies that developed in response to this wave-breaking event. The observation minus forecast (O-F) standard deviations for MLS and SABER are ~2 K in the mid-stratosphere and increase monotonically to about 6 K in the upper mesosphere. Increasing O-F standard deviations in the mesosphere are expected due to increasing instrument error and increasing geophysical variance at small spatial scales in the forecast model. In the mid/high latitude winter regions, 10-day forecast skill is improved throughout the upper stratosphere and mesosphere when the model is initialized using the high-altitude analysis based on assimilation of both SABER and MLS data.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of a long-range numerical weather forecast model to small changes of model parameters

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. B. Gavrilov ◽  
G. R. Jovanović ◽  
Z. Janjić
Keyword(s):  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
First Case ◽  
Weather Forecast Model ◽  
Model Setup ◽  
Numerical Weather Forecast

Abstract. Sensitivity of extended-range numerical weather forecasts to small changes of model parameters is studied for two cases. In the first case the Earth radius was perturbed. In the other case changes of the gravity were introduced. The results for the 500 hPa geopotential fields are presented on hemispheric maps and intercompared visually and using RMS differences of the perturbed and reference forecasts. During about the first 10 days of integration the results indicate modest sensitivity of the forecasts to the parameter variation. After this period the forecasts diverge rapidly and start to differ significantly. Repeated integrations on the same computer using the same model setup and the same initial conditions yield identical results.

scholarly journals Polar Middle Atmospheric Responses to Medium Energy Electron (MEE) Precipitation Using Numerical Model Simulations

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 133
Author(s):  
Ji-Hee Lee ◽  
Geonhwa Jee ◽  
Young-Sil Kwak ◽  
Heejin Hwang ◽  
Annika Seppälä ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Meridional Circulation ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Chemical Changes ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Mesospheric Temperature ◽  
High Energy Electrons ◽  
Circulation Changes

Energetic particle precipitation (EPP) is known to be an important source of chemical changes in the polar middle atmosphere in winter. Recent modeling studies further suggest that chemical changes induced by EPP can also cause dynamic changes in the middle atmosphere. In this study, we investigated the atmospheric responses to the precipitation of medium-to-high energy electrons (MEEs) over the period 2005–2013 using the Specific Dynamics Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM). Our results show that the MEE precipitation significantly increases the amounts of NOx and HOx, resulting in mesospheric and stratospheric ozone losses by up to 60% and 25% respectively during polar winter. The MEE-induced ozone loss generally increases the temperature in the lower mesosphere but decreases the temperature in the upper mesosphere with large year-to-year variability, not only by radiative effects but also by adiabatic effects. The adiabatic effects by meridional circulation changes may be dominant for the mesospheric temperature changes. In particular, the meridional circulation changes occasionally act in opposite ways to vary the temperature in terms of height variations, especially at around the solar minimum period with low geomagnetic activity, which cancels out the temperature changes to make the average small in the polar mesosphere for the 9-year period.

scholarly journals Galaxy and mass assembly (GAMA): the inferred mass–metallicity relation from z = 0 to 3.5 via forensic SED fitting

2021 ◽  
Vol 503 (3) ◽  
pp. 3309-3325
Author(s):  
Sabine Bellstedt ◽  
Aaron S G Robotham ◽  
Simon P Driver ◽  
Jessica E Thorne ◽  
Luke J M Davies ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Star Formation ◽  
Gas Phase ◽  
Large Range ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Cosmic Time ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
History Of ◽  
Mass Assembly ◽  
Star Formation Histories ◽  
Cosmic History

ABSTRACT We analyse the metallicity histories of ∼4500 galaxies from the GAMA survey at z &lt; 0.06 modelled by the SED-fitting code ProSpect using an evolving metallicity implementation. These metallicity histories, in combination with the associated star formation histories, allow us to analyse the inferred gas-phase mass–metallicity relation. Furthermore, we extract the mass–metallicity relation at a sequence of epochs in cosmic history, to track the evolving mass–metallicity relation with time. Through comparison with observations of gas-phase metallicity over a large range of redshifts, we show that, remarkably, our forensic SED analysis has produced an evolving mass–metallicity relationship that is consistent with observations at all epochs. We additionally analyse the three-dimensional mass–metallicity–SFR space, showing that galaxies occupy a clearly defined plane. This plane is shown to be subtly evolving, displaying an increased tilt with time caused by general enrichment, and also the slowing down of star formation with cosmic time. This evolution is most apparent at lookback times greater than 7 Gyr. The trends in metallicity recovered in this work highlight that the evolving metallicity implementation used within the SED-fitting code ProSpect produces reasonable metallicity results over the history of a galaxy. This is expected to provide a significant improvement to the accuracy of the SED-fitting outputs.

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