scholarly journals Options to accelerate ozone recovery:ozone and climate benefits

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 10839-10863
Author(s):  
J. S. Daniel ◽  
E. L. Fleming ◽  
R. W. Portmann ◽  
G. J. M. Velders ◽  
C. H. Jackman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
N2o Emissions ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Total Column ◽  
Future Emissions

Abstract. Hypothetical reductions in future emissions of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), including N2O, are evaluated in terms of effects on equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), globally-averaged total column ozone, and radiative forcing through 2100. Due to the established success of the Montreal Protocol, these actions can have only a fraction of the impact that regulations already in force have had. If all anthropogenic ODS emissions were halted beginning in 2011, ozone is calculated to be higher by about 1–2{%} during the period 2030–2100 compared to a case of no additional ODS restrictions. Radiative forcing by 2100 would be about 0.23 W/m2 lower due to the elimination of N2O emissions and about 0.005 W/m2 lower due to destruction of the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) bank. The ability of EESC to be a suitable metric for total ozone is also quantified. Responding to the recent suggestion that N2O should be considered an ODS, we provide an approach to incorporate N2O into the EESC formulation.

scholarly journals Options to accelerate ozone recovery: ozone and climate benefits

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (16) ◽  
pp. 7697-7707 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. S. Daniel ◽  
E. L. Fleming ◽  
R. W. Portmann ◽  
G. J. M. Velders ◽  
C. H. Jackman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
N2o Emissions ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. Hypothetical reductions in future emissions of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and N2O are evaluated in terms of effects on equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), globally-averaged total column ozone, and radiative forcing through 2100. Due to the established success of the Montreal Protocol, these actions can have only a fraction of the impact on ozone depletion that regulations already in force have had. If all anthropogenic ODS and N2O emissions were halted beginning in 2011, ozone is calculated to be higher by about 1–2% during the period 2030–2100 compared to a case of no additional restrictions. Direct radiative forcing by 2100 would be about 0.23 W/m2 lower from the elimination of anthropogenic N2O emissions and about 0.005 W/m2 lower from the destruction of the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) bank. Due to the potential impact of N2O on future ozone levels, we provide an approach to incorporate it into the EESC formulation, which is used extensively in ozone depletion analyses. The ability of EESC to describe total ozone changes arising from additional ODS and N2O controls is also quantified.

scholarly journals Evidence for a continuous decline in lower stratospheric ozone offsetting ozone layer recovery

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 1379-1394 ◽  
Author(s):  
William T. Ball ◽  
Justin Alsing ◽  
Daniel J. Mortlock ◽  
Johannes Staehelin ◽  
Joanna D. Haigh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Ozone Layer ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. Ozone forms in the Earth's atmosphere from the photodissociation of molecular oxygen, primarily in the tropical stratosphere. It is then transported to the extratropics by the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), forming a protective ozone layer around the globe. Human emissions of halogen-containing ozone-depleting substances (hODSs) led to a decline in stratospheric ozone until they were banned by the Montreal Protocol, and since 1998 ozone in the upper stratosphere is rising again, likely the recovery from halogen-induced losses. Total column measurements of ozone between the Earth's surface and the top of the atmosphere indicate that the ozone layer has stopped declining across the globe, but no clear increase has been observed at latitudes between 60° S and 60° N outside the polar regions (60–90°). Here we report evidence from multiple satellite measurements that ozone in the lower stratosphere between 60° S and 60° N has indeed continued to decline since 1998. We find that, even though upper stratospheric ozone is recovering, the continuing downward trend in the lower stratosphere prevails, resulting in a downward trend in stratospheric column ozone between 60° S and 60° N. We find that total column ozone between 60° S and 60° N appears not to have decreased only because of increases in tropospheric column ozone that compensate for the stratospheric decreases. The reasons for the continued reduction of lower stratospheric ozone are not clear; models do not reproduce these trends, and thus the causes now urgently need to be established.

scholarly journals Diagnosing the radiative and chemical contributions to future changes in tropical column ozone with the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Keeble ◽  
Ewa M. Bednarz ◽  
Antara Banerjee ◽  
N. Luke Abraham ◽  
Neil R. P. Harris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
The Future ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column ◽  
Emissions Scenario

Abstract. Chemical and dynamical drivers of trends in tropical total column ozone (TCO3) for the recent past and future periods are explored using the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model. A transient 1960-2100 simulation is analysed which follows the representative concentration pathway 6.0 (RCP6.0) emissions scenario for the future. Tropical averaged (10° S–10° N) TCO3 values decrease from the 1970s, reaching a minimum around 2000, and return to their 1980 values around 2040, consistent with the use and emission of ozone depleting substances (ODS), and their later controls under the Montreal Protocol. However, when the ozone column is subdivided into three partial columns (PCO3) that cover the upper stratosphere (PCO3US), lower stratosphere (PCO3LS) and troposphere (PCO3T), significant differences to the behaviour of the total column are seen. Modelled PCO3T values increase from 1960–2000 before remaining steady under this particular emissions scenario throughout the 21st century. PCO3LS values decrease rapidly from 1960–2000, remain steady until around 2050, before gradually decreasing further to 2100, never recovering to their 1980s values. PCO3US values decrease from 1960–2000, before rapidly increasing throughout the 21st century, recovering to 1980s values by ~ 2020, and are significantly higher than 1980s values by 2100. Using a series of idealised UM-UKCA time-slice simulations with varying concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHG) and ODS set to either year 2000 or 2100 levels, we examine the main processes that drive the PCO3 responses in the three regions, and assess how these processes change under different emission scenarios. Finally, we present a simple, linearised model to describe the future evolution of tropical stratospheric column ozone values based on terms representing time-dependent abundances of GHG and ODS.

scholarly journals Reevaluation of total-column ozone trends and of the Effective Radiative Forcing of ozone-depleting substances

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olaf Morgenstern ◽  
Stacey M Frith ◽  
Gregory Elton Bodeker ◽  
Vitali Fioletov ◽  
Dr. Ronald Vander A
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
Effective Radiative Forcing ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column

scholarly journals Attribution of observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 17341-17367
Author(s):  
N. P. Gillett ◽  
H. Akiyoshi ◽  
S. Bekki ◽  
V. Eyring ◽  
R. Garcia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Detection And Attribution ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. Three recently-completed sets of simulations of multiple chemistry-climate models with greenhouse gases only, with all anthropogenic forcings, and with anthropogenic and natural forcings, allow the causes of observed stratospheric changes to be quantitatively assessed using detection and attribution techniques. The total column ozone response to halogenated ozone depleting substances and to natural forcings is detectable and consistent in models and observations. However, the total ozone response to greenhouse gases in the models and observations appears to be inconsistent, which may be due to the models' inability to properly simulate tropospheric ozone changes. In the middle and upper stratosphere, simulated and observed SBUV/SAGE ozone changes are broadly consistent, and separate anthropogenic and natural responses are detectable in observations. The influence of ozone depleting substances and natural forcings can also be detected separately in observed lower stratospheric temperature, and the magnitudes of the simulated and observed responses to these forcings and to greenhouse gas changes are found to be consistent. In the mid and upper stratosphere the simulated natural and combined anthropogenic responses are detectable and consistent with observations, but the influences of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances could not be separately detected in our analysis.

scholarly journals Modelling the potential impacts of the recent, unexpected increase in CFC-11 emissions on total column ozone recovery

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Keeble ◽  
N. Luke Abraham ◽  
Alexander T. Archibald ◽  
Martyn P. Chipperfield ◽  
Sandip Dhomse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Significant Delay ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Rapid Action ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Long Term Measurement ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. The temporal evolution of long-lived, anthropogenic chlorofluorocarbons is a key control on the timing of total column ozone (TCO) recovery. Recent observations have shown that the atmospheric mixing ratio of CFC-11 is not declining as expected under complete compliance with the Montreal Protocol, and indicate a new source of CFC-11. In this study, the impact of a number of potential future CFC-11 emissions scenarios on TCO recovery is investigated using the UM-UKCA model. Key uncertainties related to this new CFC-11 source and their impact on the timing of TCO recovery are explored, including: the duration of new CFC-11 emissions/production; the impact of any newly created bank; and the effects of co-production of CFC-12. Scenario-independent relationships are identified between cumulative CFC emissions and the timing of ozone recovery, which can be used to establish the impact of future CFC emissions pathways on ozone recovery in the real world. It is found that, for every 200 Gg Cl emitted, the timing of global TCO recovery is delayed by ~ 0.56 years. However, a marked hemispheric asymmetry in the latitudinal impacts of cumulative Cl emissions on the timing of TCO recovery is identified, with longer delays in the southern hemisphere than the northern hemisphere for the same emission. Together, these results indicate that, if rapid action is taken to curb recently identified CFC-11 production then no significant delay in the timing of TCO recovery is expected, highlighting the importance of ongoing, long-term measurement efforts to inform the accountability phase of the Montreal Protocol. However, if the emissions are allowed to continue into the future, and are associated with the creation of large banks, then significant delays in the timing of TCO recovery may occur.

scholarly journals Modelling the potential impacts of the recent, unexpected increase in CFC-11 emissions on total column ozone recovery

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (12) ◽  
pp. 7153-7166
Author(s):  
James Keeble ◽  
N. Luke Abraham ◽  
Alexander T. Archibald ◽  
Martyn P. Chipperfield ◽  
Sandip Dhomse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
The Road ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Full Compliance ◽  
Rapid Action ◽  
On The Road ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. The temporal evolution of the abundance of long-lived, anthropogenic chlorofluorocarbons in the atmosphere is a major factor in determining the timing of total column ozone (TCO) recovery. Recent observations have shown that the atmospheric mixing ratio of CFC-11 is not declining as rapidly as expected under full compliance with the Montreal Protocol and indicate a new source of CFC-11 emissions. In this study, the impact of a number of potential future CFC-11 emissions scenarios on the timing of the TCO return to the 1960–1980 mean (an important milestone on the road to recovery) is investigated using the Met Office's Unified Model (Hewitt et al., 2011) coupled with the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol scheme (UM-UKCA). Key uncertainties related to this new CFC-11 source and their impact on the timing of the TCO return date are explored, including the duration of new CFC-11 production and emissions; the impact of any newly created CFC-11 bank; and the effects of co-production of CFC-12. Scenario-independent relationships are identified between cumulative CFC emissions and the timing of the TCO return date, which can be used to establish the impact of future CFC emissions pathways on ozone recovery in the real world. It is found that, for every 200 Gg Cl (∼258 Gg CFC-11) emitted, the timing of the global TCO return to 1960–1980 averaged values is delayed by ∼0.56 years. However, a marked hemispheric asymmetry in the latitudinal impacts of cumulative Cl emissions on the timing of the TCO return date is identified, with longer delays in the Southern Hemisphere than the Northern Hemisphere for the same emission. Together, these results indicate that, if rapid action is taken to curb recently identified CFC-11 production, then no significant delay in the timing of the TCO return to the 1960–1980 mean is expected, highlighting the importance of ongoing, long-term measurement efforts to inform the accountability phase of the Montreal Protocol. However, if the emissions are allowed to continue into the future and are associated with the creation of large banks, then significant delays in the timing of the TCO return date may occur.

scholarly journals Comparison of profile total ozone from SBUV(v8.6) with GOME-type and ground-based total ozone for 16-yr period (1996 to 2011)

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 10081-10115 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. W. Chiou ◽  
P. K. Bhartia ◽  
R. D. McPeters ◽  
D. G. Loyola ◽  
M. Coldewey-Egbers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Latitude Band ◽  
Ozone Data ◽  
Standard Deviations ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. This paper describes the comparison of the variability of total column ozone inferred from the three independent multi-year data records, namely, (i) SBUV(v8.6) profile total ozone, (ii) GTO(GOME-Type total ozone), and (iii) Ground-based total ozone data records covering the 16-yr overlap period (March 1996 through June 2011). Analyses are conducted based on area weighted zonal means for (0–30° S), (0–30° N), (50–30° S), and (30–60° N). It has been found that on average, the differences in monthly zonal mean total ozone vary between −0.32 to 0.76 % and are well within 1%. For "GTO minus SBUV", the standard deviations and ranges (maximum minus minimum) of the differences regarding monthly zonal mean total ozone vary between 0.58 to 0.66% and 2.83 to 3.82% respectively, depending on the latitude band. The corresponding standard deviations and ranges regarding the differences in monthly zonal mean anomalies show values between 0.40 to 0.59% and 2.19 to 3.53%. The standard deviations and ranges of the differences "Ground-based minus SBUV" regarding both monthly zonal means and anomalies are larger by a factor of 1.4 to 2.9 in comparison to "GTO minus SBUV". The Ground-based zonal means, while show no systematic differences, demonstrate larger scattering of monthly data compared to satellite-based records. The differences in the scattering are significantly reduced if seasonal zonal averages are analyzed. The trends of the differences "GTO minus SBUV" and "Ground-based minus SBUV" are found to vary between −0.04 and 0.12% yr−1 (−0.11 and 0.31 DU yr−1). These negligibly small trends have provided strong evidence that there are no significant time dependent differences among these multi-year total ozone data records. Analyses of the deviations from pre-1980 level indicate that for the overlap period of 1996 to 2010, all three data records show gradual recovery at (30–60° N) from −5% in 1996 to −2% in 2010. The corresponding recovery at (50–30° S) is not as obvious until after 2006.

scholarly journals Simple measures of ozone depletion in the polar stratosphere

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 251-264 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Müller ◽  
J.-U. Grooß ◽  
C. Lemmen ◽  
D. Heinze ◽  
M. Dameris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Total Ozone ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Ozone Loss ◽  
Break Up ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Polar Ozone ◽  
Daily Total

Abstract. We investigate the extent to which quantities that are based on total column ozone are applicable as measures of ozone loss in the polar vortices. Such quantities have been used frequently in ozone assessments by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and also to assess the performance of chemistry-climate models. The most commonly considered quantities are March and October mean column ozone poleward of geometric latitude 63° and the spring minimum of daily total ozone minima poleward of a given latitude. Particularly in the Arctic, the former measure is affected by vortex variability and vortex break-up in spring. The minimum of daily total ozone minima poleward of a particular latitude is debatable, insofar as it relies on one single measurement or model grid point. We find that, for Arctic conditions, this minimum value often occurs in air outside the polar vortex, both in the observations and in a chemistry-climate model. Neither of the two measures shows a good correlation with chemical ozone loss in the vortex deduced from observations. We recommend that the minimum of daily minima should no longer be used when comparing polar ozone loss in observations and models. As an alternative to the March and October mean column polar ozone we suggest considering the minimum of daily average total ozone poleward of 63° equivalent latitude in spring (except for winters with an early vortex break-up). Such a definition both obviates relying on one single data point and reduces the impact of year-to-year variability in the Arctic vortex break-up on ozone loss measures. Further, this measure shows a reasonable correlation (r=–0.75) with observed chemical ozone loss. Nonetheless, simple measures of polar ozone loss must be used with caution; if possible, it is preferable to use more sophisticated measures that include additional information to disentangle the impact of transport and chemistry on ozone.

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