scholarly journals Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model using the representative concentration pathways

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1317-1338 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. A. Betts ◽  
N. Golding ◽  
P. Gonzalez ◽  
J. Gornall ◽  
R. Kahana ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. A new generation of an Earth system model now includes a number of land-surface processes directly relevant to analyzing potential impacts of climate change. This model, HadGEM2-ES, allows us to assess the impacts of climate change, multiple interactions, and feedbacks as the model is run. This paper discusses the results of century-scale HadGEM2-ES simulations from an impacts perspective – specifically, terrestrial ecosystems and water resources – for four different scenarios following the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), used in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013, 2014). Over the 21st century, simulated changes in global and continental-scale terrestrial ecosystems due to climate change appear to be very similar in all 4 RCPs, even though the level of global warming by the end of the 21st century ranges from 2 °C in the lowest scenario to 5.5° in the highest. A warming climate generally favours broadleaf trees over needleleaf, needleleaf trees over shrubs, and shrubs over herbaceous vegetation, resulting in a poleward shift of temperate and boreal forests and woody tundra in all scenarios. Although climate related changes are slightly larger in scenarios of greater warming, the largest differences between scenarios arise at regional scales as a consequence of different patterns of anthropogenic land cover change. In the model, the scenario with the lowest global warming results in the most extensive decline in tropical forest cover due to a large expansion of agriculture. Under all four RCPs, fire potential could increase across extensive land areas, particularly tropical and sub-tropical latitudes. River outflows are simulated to increase with higher levels of CO2 and global warming in all projections, with outflow increasing with mean temperature at the end of the 21st century at the global scale and in North America, Asia, and Africa. In South America, Europe, and Australia, the relationship with climate warming and CO2 rise is less clear, probably as a result of land cover change exerting a dominant effect in those regions.

scholarly journals Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems, fire, and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth System Model using the Representative Concentration Pathways

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 6171-6223 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. A. Betts ◽  
N. Golding ◽  
P. Gonzalez ◽  
J. Gornall ◽  
R. Kahana ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. A new generation of an Earth System Model now includes a number of land surface processes directly relevant to analyzing potential impacts of climate change. This model, HadGEM2-ES, allows us to assess the impacts of climate change, multiple interactions, and feedbacks as the model is run. This paper discusses the results of century-scale HadGEM2-ES simulations from an impacts perspective–specifically, terrestrial ecosystems and water resources–for four different scenarios following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), being used for next assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Over the 21st Century, simulated changes in global and continential-scale terrestrial ecosystems due to climate change appear to be very similar in all 4 RCPs, even though the level of global warming by the end of the 21st Century ranges from 2 °C in the lowest scenario to 5.5° in the highest. A warming climate generally favours broadleaf trees over needleleaf, needleleaf trees over shrubs, and shrubs over herbaceous vegetation, resulting in a poleward shift of temperate and boreal forests and woody tundra in all scenarios. Although climate related changes are slightly larger in scenarios of greater warming, the largest differences between scenarios arise at regional scales as a consequence of different patterns of anthropogenic land cover change. In the model, the scenario with the lowest global warming results in the most extensive decline in tropical forest cover due to a large expansion of agriculture. Under all four RCPs, fire potential could increase across extensive land areas, particularly tropical and sub-tropical latitudes. River outflows are simulated to increase with higher levels of CO2 and global warming in all projections, with outflow increasing with mean temperature at the end of the 21st Century at the global scale and in North America, Asia, and Africa. In South America, Europe, and Australia, the relationship with climate warming and CO2 rise is less clear, probably as a result of land cover change exerting a dominant effect in those regions.

scholarly journals Investigating diurnal and seasonal climatic response to land use and land cover change over monsoon Asia with the Community Earth System Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 120 (3) ◽  
pp. 1137-1152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongfeng Xu ◽  
Rezaul Mahmood ◽  
Zong‐Liang Yang ◽  
Congbin Fu ◽  
Hua Su
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Climatic Response ◽  
Monsoon Asia ◽  
Community Earth System Model

scholarly journals Climate Change Projection in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 Model Based on New GHGs Concentration Pathways

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyun Min Sung ◽  
Jisun Kim ◽  
Sungbo Shim ◽  
Jeong-byn Seo ◽  
Sang-Hoon Kwon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
System Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Twenty First Century

AbstractThe National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.

scholarly journals Centennial-scale interactions between the carbon cycle and anthropogenic climate change using a dynamic Earth system model

2005 ◽  
Vol 32 (23) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Winguth ◽  
U. Mikolajewicz ◽  
M. Gröger ◽  
E. Maier-Reimer ◽  
G. Schurgers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Scale Interactions

scholarly journals Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 2123-2165 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.-L. Dufresne ◽  
M.-A. Foujols ◽  
S. Denvil ◽  
A. Caubel ◽  
O. Marti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Climate Change Projections

scholarly journals Can an Earth System Model simulate better climate change at mid-Holocene than an AOGCM? A comparison study of MIROC-ESM and MIROC3

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1519-1542 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Ohgaito ◽  
T. Sueyoshi ◽  
A. Abe-Ouchi ◽  
T. Hajima ◽  
S. Watanabe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Precipitation Enhancement

Abstract. The importance of evaluating models through paleoclimate simulations is becoming more recognized in efforts to improve climate projection. To evaluate an integrated Earth System Model, MIROC-ESM, we performed simulations in time-slice experiments for the mid-Holocene (6000 yr before present, 6 ka) and preindustrial (1850 AD, 0 ka) periods under the protocol of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5/Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 3. We first give an overview of the simulated global climates by comparing with simulations using a previous version of the MIROC model (MIROC3), which is an atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model. We then comprehensively discuss various aspects of climate change with 6 ka forcing and how the differences in the models can affect the results. We also discuss the representation of the precipitation enhancement at 6 ka over northern Africa. The precipitation enhancement at 6 ka over northern Africa according to MIROC-ESM does not differ greatly from that obtained with MIROC3, which means that newly developed components such as dynamic vegetation and improvements in the atmospheric processes do not have significant impacts on the representation of the 6 ka monsoon change suggested by proxy records. Although there is no drastic difference between the African monsoon representations of the two models, there are small but significant differences in the precipitation enhancement over the Sahara in early summer, which can be related to the representation of the sea surface temperature rather than the vegetation coupling in MIROC-ESM. Because the oceanic parts of the two models are identical, the difference in the sea surface temperature change is ultimately attributed to the difference in the atmospheric and/or land modules, and possibly the difference in the representation of low-level clouds.

scholarly journals Bergen Earth system model (BCM-C): model description and regional climate-carbon cycle feedbacks assessment

2010 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-141 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. F. Tjiputra ◽  
K. Assmann ◽  
M. Bentsen ◽  
I. Bethke ◽  
O. H. Otterå ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Model Description ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Carbon Cycle Model ◽  
Enhanced Production ◽  
Positive Climate

Abstract. We developed a complex Earth system model by coupling terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle components into the Bergen Climate Model. For this study, we have generated two model simulations (one with climate change inclusions and the other without) to study the large scale climate and carbon cycle variability as well as its feedback for the period 1850–2100. The simulations are performed based on historical and future IPCC CO2 emission scenarios. Globally, a pronounced positive climate-carbon cycle feedback is simulated by the terrestrial carbon cycle model, but smaller signals are shown by the oceanic counterpart. Over land, the regional climate-carbon cycle feedback is highlighted by increased soil respiration, which exceeds the enhanced production due to the atmospheric CO2 fertilization effect, in the equatorial and northern hemisphere mid-latitude regions. For the ocean, our analysis indicates that there are substantial temporal and spatial variations in climate impact on the air-sea CO2 fluxes. This implies feedback mechanisms act inhomogeneously in different ocean regions. In the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, the simulated future cooling of SST improves the CO2 gas solubility in seawater and, hence, reduces the strength of positive climate carbon cycle feedback in this region. In most ocean regions, the changes in the Revelle factor is dominated by changes in surface pCO2, and not by the warming of SST. Therefore, the solubility-associated positive feedback is more prominent than the buffer capacity feedback. In our climate change simulation, the retreat of Southern Ocean sea ice due to melting allows an additional ~20 Pg C uptake as compared to the simulation without climate change.

scholarly journals Marine Ecosystem Dynamics and Biogeochemical Cycling in the Community Earth System Model [CESM1(BGC)]: Comparison of the 1990s with the 2090s under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Scenarios

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (23) ◽  
pp. 9291-9312 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Keith Moore ◽  
Keith Lindsay ◽  
Scott C. Doney ◽  
Matthew C. Long ◽  
Kazuhiro Misumi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
Ecosystem Dynamics ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Production Scale ◽  
Export Production ◽  
Community Earth System Model

The authors compare Community Earth System Model results to marine observations for the 1990s and examine climate change impacts on biogeochemistry at the end of the twenty-first century under two future scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Late-twentieth-century seasonally varying mixed layer depths are generally within 10 m of observations, with a Southern Ocean shallow bias. Surface nutrient and chlorophyll concentrations exhibit positive biases at low latitudes and negative biases at high latitudes. The volume of the oxygen minimum zones is overestimated. The impacts of climate change on biogeochemistry have similar spatial patterns under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, but perturbation magnitudes are larger under RCP8.5. Increasing stratification leads to weaker nutrient entrainment and decreased primary and export production (>30% over large areas). The global-scale decreases in primary and export production scale linearly with the increases in mean sea surface temperature. There are production increases in the high nitrate, low chlorophyll (HNLC) regions, driven by lateral iron inputs from adjacent areas. The increased HNLC export partially compensates for the reductions in non-HNLC waters (~25% offset). Stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions and climate by the end of this century (as in RCP4.5) will minimize the changes to nutrient cycling and primary production in the oceans. In contrast, continued increasing emission of CO2 (as in RCP8.5) will lead to reduced productivity and significant modifications to ocean circulation and biogeochemistry by the end of this century, with more drastic changes beyond the year 2100 as the climate continues to rapidly warm.

scholarly journals Understanding why the volume of suboxic waters does not increase over centuries of global warming in an Earth System Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 1159-1172 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Gnanadesikan ◽  
J. P. Dunne ◽  
J. John
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Dissolved Oxygen ◽  
Lateral Diffusion ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Oxygen Solubility ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Eddy Transport ◽  
Term Analysis ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract. Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full Earth System model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling (the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model 2.1) shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic (i.e., suboxic) waters does not increase under global warming, as these waters actually become more oxygenated. We show that the rise in dissolved oxygen in the tropical Pacific is associated with a drop in ventilation time. A term-by-term analysis within the least oxygenated waters shows an increased supply of dissolved oxygen due to lateral diffusion compensating an increase in remineralization within these highly hypoxic waters. This lateral diffusive flux is the result of an increase of ventilation along the Chilean coast, as a drying of the region under global warming opens up a region of wintertime convection in our model. The results highlight the potential sensitivity of suboxic waters to changes in subtropical ventilation as well as the importance of constraining lateral eddy transport of dissolved oxygen in such waters.

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