Assimilation of Ground-Based Microwave Radiometer on Heavy Rainfall Forecast in Beijing

Ground-based microwave radiometers (MWRPS) can provide continuous atmospheric temperature and relative humidity profiles for a weather prediction model. We investigated the impact of assimilation of ground-based microwave radiometers based on the rapid-refresh multiscale analysis and prediction system-short term (RMAPS-ST). In this study, five MWRP-retrieved profiles were assimilated for the precipitation enhancement that occurred in Beijing on 21 May 2020. To evaluate the influence of their assimilation, two experiments with and without the MWRPS assimilation were set. Compared to the control experiment, which only assimilated conventional observations and radar data, the MWRPS experiment, which assimilated conventional observations, the ground-based microwave radiometer profiles and the radar data, had a positive impact on the forecasts of the RMAPS-ST. The results show that in comparison with the control test, the MWRPS experiment reproduced the heat island phenomenon in the observation better. The MWRPS assimilation reduced the bias and RMSE of two-meter temperature and two-meter specific humidity forecasting in the 0–12 h of the forecast range. Furthermore, assimilating the MWRPS improved both the distribution and the intensity of the hourly rainfall forecast, as compared with that of the control experiment, with observations that predicted the process of the precipitation enhancement in the urban area of Beijing.

Evaluation of the First Negative Ion-Based Cloud Seeding and Rain Enhancement Trial in China

Negative ion-based cloud seeding has been shown to be an effective means in the laboratory. China’s first negative ion-based cloud seeding outfield trial was conducted in the northwestern interior. This paper briefly introduces the principle of the ion-based precipitation enhancement, and the trial location is described. The design of the ionization system and meteorological monitoring network are presented. The implementation plan of the outfield trial is explained. In addition, the evaluation of experimental effects is detailed in this paper. We designed various analytical methods to investigate both the overall precipitation variation of the experimental area and the precipitation variation within the experimental area. The overall precipitation of the experimental area was predicted using a neural network, and then the actual precipitation was compared with the predicted precipitation to evaluate the effectiveness of the experiment. The effectiveness of the experiment was also evaluated using historical precipitation data and the result of the randomized comparative trial. This paper also explores the effects of geographic location differences and wind direction differences on the precipitation differences within the trial area. The changes in the number of negative ions and clouds in the sky were also analyzed. From these analyses, we obtained quantitative assessment results. These results could indicate that the outfield trial basically met the expected requirements, which is to increase the rainfall of the trial area by 20%.

Precipitation Enhancement in Squall Lines Moving Over Mountainous Coastal Regions

A mechanism for precipitation enhancement in squall lines moving over mountainous coastal regions is quantified through idealized numerical simulations. Storm intensity and precipitation peak over the sloping terrain as storms descend from an elevated plateau toward the coastline and encounter the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL). Storms are most intense as they encounter the deepest MABLs. As the descending storm outflow collides with a moving MABL (sea breeze), surface and low-level air parcels initially accelerate upward, though their ultimate trajectory is governed by the magnitude of the negative non-hydrostatic inertial pressure perturbation behind the cold pool leading edge. For shallow MABLs, the baroclinic gradient across the gust front generates large horizontal vorticity, a low-level negative pressure perturbation, and thus a downward acceleration of air parcels following their initial ascent. A deep MABL reduces the baroclinically-generated vorticity, leading to a weaker pressure perturbation and minimal downward acceleration, allowing air to accelerate into a storm’s updraft.Once storms move away from the terrain base and over the full depth of the MABLs, storms over the deepest MABLs decay most rapidly, while those over the shallowest MABLs initially intensify. Though elevated ascent exists above all MABLs, the deepest MABLs substantially reduce the depth of the high-θe layer above the MABLs and limit instability. This relationship is insensitive to MABL temperature, even though surface-based ascent is present for the less cold MABLs, the MABL thermal deficit is smaller, and convective available potential energy (CAPE) is higher.

Cloud microphysical structure analysis based on high-resolution insitu measurements

This study investigates the microphysical parameters and shapes of droplet size distributions (DSDs) along three aircraft traverses of developing convective clouds during Cloud Aerosol Interactions and Precipitation Enhancement EXperiment (CAIPEEX) 2015 at a sampling frequency of 25 Hz. The droplet number concentration (Nc, cm−3), and liquid water content (LWC, gm−3) present steep gradients within a few tens of meters’ zones near the cloud edges and relatively gentle gradients in the strong updraft zones. Sometimes, the horizontal LWC distribution resembles a trapezoid-like shape with steep LWC and Nc gradients near the cloud edges. The LWC maximums (LWCmax) are lower than the adiabatic LWC, but the high adiabatic fractions in the cloud core indicate low dilution. High LWC/LWCmax, largest droplets, and narrow and similarly-shaped DSDs are found in the regions of high updrafts. Zones of low LWC/LWCmax are found close to the cloud edges, where DSDs are highly diverse, containing both large and small droplets. Finally, we analyze the mixing diagrams.Significant in-phase turbulent fluctuations in LWC and Nc were found. The effective radii change slightly across cloud updraft zones but decrease at the low LWC/LWCmax ratio zone close to cloud edges. The spectra of LWC and Nc obey Kolmogorov -5/3 turbulence law. The radii of the correlation of LWC and Nc in updraft zones are of several tens of meters. Filaments up to 120-175 m in size are also noticed.

MICROPHYSICAL AND THERMODYNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CONVECTIVE CLOUDS (BASED ON THE RESULTS OF INVESTIGATIONS IN CUBA)

The results of studying microphysical and thermodynamic characteristics of tropical convective clouds are presented. The studies included complex experiments on assessing a possibility of artificial precipitation enhancement from clouds in the eastern part of Cuba during 1982-1990 and 2005-2007. More than 400 clouds developing over the island and adjoining sea areas are investigated. It is shown that the microphysical and thermodynamic characteristics of the analyzed clouds are closer to continental than marine clouds, which is caused by the effect of aerosol from the surface layer over the island. Based on the results of coupled radar and aircraft studies, a statistical model of changes in cloud parameters is constructed, and the size of the time window is determined, during which clouds meet the criteria of seedability to enhance precipitation: the first 15-20 minutes after the appearance of the first echo.

A portable complex using UAVs to inject hygroscopic powders for precipitation enhancement to extinguish forest fires

The ideas and calculations presented in the article relate to the field of meteorology and climatology and for extinguishing forest fires. It is proposed to use an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) combined with a portable device for the dosed addition of hygroscopic reagents for precipitation enhancement in natural clouds. The complex, like the UAV with special device for dozed reagents, is characterized by mobility and the possibility of its usage in hard-to-reach woodlands. The advantage is that UAV is easy to use and does not require large airfields with a long runway and other special aviation equipment necessary for the operation of large aircraft. It should also be noted that the mass of the necessary chemical reagents is many times greater than the mass of received water in the form of precipitation from clouds according to the developed and currently available technologies. The algorithm and examples of calculating the key points of the application of the complex and the method of its implementation are set out in the text.

Examination of Aerosol-Induced Convective Invigoration Using Idealized Simulations

Idealized large-eddy simulations (LESs) are performed of deep convective clouds over south Florida to examine the relative role of aerosol-induced condensational versus mixed-phase invigoration to convective intensity and rainfall. Aerosol concentrations and chemistry are represented by using output from the GEOS-Chem global atmospheric chemistry model run with and without anthropogenic aerosol sources. The results clearly show that higher aerosol concentrations result in enhanced precipitation, larger amounts of cloud liquid water content, enhanced updraft velocities during the latter part of the simulation, and a modest enhancement of the latent heating of condensation. Overall, our results are consistent with the concept that convective cloud invigoration is mainly due to condensational invigoration and not primarily to mixed-phase invigoration. Furthermore, our results suggest that condensational invigoration can result in appreciable precipitation enhancement of ordinary warm-based convective clouds such as are common in locations like south Florida.

INTENDED PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT. THE RESULTS OF STUDIES AND OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES

The paper presents the results of long-term studies in the field of precipitation enhancement performed at the Central Aerological Observatory. The studies were carried out at specially equipped weather sites in different geographical regions, which made it possible to obtain experimental data on the effectiveness of weather modification operations in different climatic zones. The results allowed developing an operational technology of precipitation enhancement and implementing relevant projects both in Russia and abroad. Operational results are also presented.

Precipitation Enhancement Experiments in Catchment Areas of Dams: Evaluation of Water Resource Augmentation and Economic Benefits

This study calculated the augmentation of water resources that can be achieved through precipitation enhancement and the ensuing economic benefits by conducting precipitation enhancement experiments using atmospheric aircraft in the catchment areas of 21 multipurpose dams in Korea. The maximum number of precipitation enhancement experiments to be carried out was estimated based on the frequency of occurrence of seedable clouds near each dam, using geostationary satellite data. The maximum quantity of water that can be obtained was calculated considering the mean precipitation enhancement and probability of success, as determined from the results of experiments conducted in South Korea during 2018–2019. The effective area of seeding was assumed 300 km2. In addition, the amount of hydroelectric power generation possible was determined from the quantity of water thus calculated. In conclusion, it was established that an approximate increase of 12.89 million m3 (90% confidence interval: 7.83–17.95 million m3) of water, and 4.79 (2.91–6.68) million kWh of electric power generation will be possible through approximately 96 precipitation enhancement operations in a year at the catchment area of Seomjin River (SJ) dam which has a high frequency of occurrence of seedable clouds, a large drainage area, and a high net head. An economic benefit of approximately 1.01 (0.61–1.40) million USD can be anticipated, the benefit/cost ratio being 1.46 (0.89–2.04).