scholarly journals Drivers of 21<sup>st</sup> Century carbon cycle variability in the North Atlantic Ocean

Author(s):  
Matthew P. Couldrey ◽  
Kevin I. C. Oliver ◽  
Andrew Yool ◽  
Paul R. Halloran ◽  
Eric P. Achterberg

Abstract. The North Atlantic carbon sink is a prominent component of global climate, storing large amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), but this basin’s CO2 uptake variability presents challenges for future climate prediction. A comprehensive mechanistic understanding of the processes that give rise to year-to-year (interannual) and decade-to-decade (decadal) variability in the North Atlantic’s dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) inventory is lacking. Here, we numerically simulate the oceanic response to human-induced (anthropogenic) climate change from the industrial era to the year 2100. The model distinguishes how different physical, chemical, and biological processes modify the basin’s DIC inventory; the saturation, soft tissue, and carbonate pumps, anthropogenic emissions, and other processes causing air-sea disequilibria. There are four ‘natural’ pools (saturation, soft tissue, carbonate, and disequilibrium), and an ‘anthropogenic’ pool. Interannual variability of the North Atlantic DIC inventory arises primarily due to temperature- and alkalinity-induced changes in carbon solubility (saturation concentrations). A mixture of saturation and anthropogenic drivers cause decadal variability. Multidecadal variability results from the opposing effects of saturation versus soft tissue carbon, and anthropogenic carbon uptake. By the year 2100, the North Atlantic gains 66 Pg (1 Pg = 1015 grams) of anthropogenic carbon, and the natural carbon pools collectively decline by 4.8 Pg. The first order controls on interannual variability of the North Atlantic carbon sink size are therefore largely physical, and the biological pump emerges as an important driver of change on multidecadal timescales. Further work should identify specifically which physical processes underlie the interannual saturation-dominated DIC variability documented here.

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 15223-15244
Author(s):  
M. L. Breeden ◽  
G. A. McKinley

Abstract. The North Atlantic is the most intense region of ocean CO2 uptake. Here, we investigate multidecadal timescale variability of the partial pressure CO2 (pCO2) that is due to the natural carbon cycle using a regional model forced with realistic climate and pre-industrial atmospheric pCO2 for 1948–2009. Large-scale patterns of natural pCO2 variability are primarily associated with basin-averaged sea surface temperature (SST) that, in turn, is composed of two parts: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and a long-term positive SST trend. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives a secondary mode of variability. For the primary mode, positive AMO and the SST trend modify pCO2 with different mechanisms and spatial patterns. Warming with the positive AMO increases subpolar gyre pCO2, but there is also a significant reduction of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) due primarily to reduced vertical mixing. The net impact of positive AMO is to reduce pCO2 in the subpolar gyre. Through direct impacts on SST, the net impacts of positive AMO is to increase pCO2 in the subtropical gyre. From 1980 to present, long-term SST warming has amplified AMO impacts on pCO2.


2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 971-994 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. H. Shadwick ◽  
T. Papakyriakou ◽  
A. E. F. Prowe ◽  
D. Leong ◽  
S. A. Moore ◽  
...  

Abstract. The Arctic Ocean is expected to be disproportionately sensitive to climatic changes, and is thought to be an area where such changes might be detected. The Arctic hydrological cycle is influenced by: runoff and precipitation, sea ice formation/melting, and the inflow of saline waters from Bering and Fram Straits and the Barents Sea Shelf. Pacific water is recognizable as intermediate salinity water, with high concentrations of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), flowing from the Arctic Ocean to the North Atlantic via the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. We present DIC data from an east-west section through the Archipelago, as part of the Canadian International Polar Year initiatives. The fractions of Pacific and Arctic Ocean waters leaving the Archipelago and entering Baffin Bay, and subsequently the North Atlantic, are computed. The eastward transport of carbon from the Pacific, via the Arctic, to the North Atlantic is estimated. Altered mixing ratios of Pacific and freshwater in the Arctic Ocean have been recorded in recent decades. Any climatically driven alterations in the composition of waters leaving the Arctic Archipelago may have implications for anthropogenic CO2 uptake, and hence ocean acidification, in the subpolar and temperate North Atlantic.


2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 2649-2659 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. R. Bates

Abstract. Natural climate variability impacts the multi-decadal uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (Cant) into the North Atlantic Ocean subpolar and subtropical gyres. Previous studies have shown that there is significant uptake of CO2 into subtropical mode water (STMW) of the North Atlantic. STMW forms south of the Gulf Stream in winter and constitutes the dominant upper-ocean water mass in the subtropical gyre of the North Atlantic Ocean. Observations at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site near Bermuda show an increase in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) of +1.51 ± 0.08 μmol kg−1 yr−1 between 1988 and 2011, but also an increase in ocean acidification indicators such as pH at rates (−0.0022 ± 0.0002 yr−1) higher than the surface ocean (Bates et al., 2012). It is estimated that the sink of CO2 into STMW was 0.985 ± 0.018 Pg C (Pg = 1015 g C) between 1988 and 2011 (70 ± 1.8% of which is due to uptake of Cant). The sink of CO2 into the STMW is 20% of the CO2 uptake in the North Atlantic Ocean between 14°–50° N (Takahashi et al., 2009). However, the STMW sink of CO2 was strongly coupled to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with large uptake of CO2 into STMW during the 1990s during a predominantly NAO positive phase. In contrast, uptake of CO2 into STMW was much reduced in the 2000s during the NAO neutral/negative phase. Thus, NAO induced variability of the STMW CO2 sink is important when evaluating multi-decadal changes in North Atlantic Ocean CO2 sinks.


2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 3387-3396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa L. Breeden ◽  
Galen A. McKinley

Abstract. The North Atlantic is the most intense region of ocean CO2 uptake in term of units per area. Here, we investigate multidecadal timescale variability of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) that is due to the natural carbon cycle, using a regional model forced with realistic climate and preindustrial atmospheric pCO2 for 1948–2009. Large-scale patterns of natural pCO2 variability are primarily associated with basin-averaged sea surface temperature (SST) that, in turn, is composed of two parts: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and a long-term positive SST trend. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives a secondary mode of variability. For the primary mode, positive AMO and the SST trend modify pCO2 with different mechanisms and spatial patterns. Positive AMO is also associated with a significant reduction in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the subpolar gyre, due primarily to reduced vertical mixing; the net impact of positive AMO is to reduce pCO2 in the subpolar gyre. Through direct impacts on SST, the net effect of positive AMO is to increase pCO2 in the subtropical gyre. From 1980 to present, long-term SST warming has amplified AMO impacts on pCO2.


2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 559-570 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meike Becker ◽  
Nils Andersen ◽  
Helmut Erlenkeuser ◽  
Matthew P. Humphreys ◽  
Toste Tanhua ◽  
...  

Abstract. The stable carbon isotope composition of dissolved inorganic carbon (δ13C-DIC) can be used to quantify fluxes within the carbon system. For example, knowing the δ13C signature of the inorganic carbon pool can help in describing the amount of anthropogenic carbon in the water column. The measurements can also be used for evaluating modeled carbon fluxes, for making basin-wide estimates of anthropogenic carbon, and for studying seasonal and interannual variability or decadal trends in interior ocean biogeochemistry. For all these purposes, it is not only important to have a sufficient amount of data, but these data must also be internally consistent and of high quality. In this study, we present a δ13C-DIC dataset for the North Atlantic which has undergone secondary quality control. The data originate from oceanographic research cruises between 1981 and 2014. During a primary quality control step based on simple range tests, obviously bad data were flagged. In a second quality control step, biases between measurements from different cruises were quantified through a crossover analysis using nearby data of the respective cruises, and values of biased cruises were adjusted in the data product. The crossover analysis was possible for 24 of the 32 cruises in our dataset, and adjustments were applied to 11 cruises. The internal accuracy of this dataset is 0.017 ‰. The dataset is available via the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at http://cdiac.ornl.gov/oceans/ndp_096/NAC13v1.html, doi:10.3334/CDIAC/OTG.NAC13v1.


Tellus B ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 168-178 ◽  
Author(s):  
ANTOINE CORBIÈRE ◽  
NICOLAS METZL ◽  
GILLES REVERDIN ◽  
CHRISTIAN BRUNET ◽  
TARO TAKAHASHI

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 329
Author(s):  
Albenis Pérez-Alarcón ◽  
José C. Fernández-Alvarez ◽  
Rogert Sorí ◽  
Raquel Nieto ◽  
Luis Gimeno

The combined effect of the sea surface temperature (SST) and the North Atlantic subtropical high-pressure system (NASH) in the interannual variability of the genesis of tropical cyclones (TCs) and landfalling in the period 1980–2019 is explored in this study. The SST was extracted from the Centennial Time Scale dataset from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and TC records were obtained from the Atlantic Hurricane Database of the NOAA/National Hurricane Center. The genesis and landfalling regions were objectively clustered for this analysis. Seven regions of TC genesis and five for landfalling were identified. Intercluster differences were observed in the monthly frequency distribution and annual variability, both for genesis and landfalling. From the generalized least square multiple regression model, SST and NASH (intensity and position) covariates can explain 22.7% of the variance of the frequency of TC genesis, but it is only statistically significant (p < 0.1) for the NASH center latitude. The SST mostly modulates the frequency of TCs formed near the West African coast, and the NASH latitudinal variation affects those originated in the Lesser Antilles arc. For landfalling, both covariates explain 38.7% of the variance; however, significant differences are observed in the comparison between each region. With a statistical significance higher than 90%, SST and NASH explain 33.4% of the landfalling variability in the archipelago of the Bahamas and central–eastern region of Cuba. Besides, landfalls in the Gulf of Mexico and Central America seem to be modulated by SST. It was also found there was no statistically significant relationship between the frequency of genesis and landfalling with the NASH intensity. However, the NASH structure modulates the probability density of the TCs trajectory that make landfall once or several times in their lifetime. Thus, the NASH variability throughout a hurricane season affects the TCs trajectory in the North Atlantic basin. Moreover, we found that the landfalling frequency of TCs formed near the West Africa coast and the central North Atlantic is relatively low. Furthermore, the SST and NASH longitude center explains 31.6% (p < 0.05) of the variance of the landfalling intensity in the archipelago of the Bahamas, while the SST explains 26.4% (p < 0.05) in Central America. Furthermore, the 5-year moving average filter revealed decadal and multidecadal variability in both genesis and landfalling by region. Our findings confirm the complexity of the atmospheric processes involved in the TC genesis and landfalling.


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