scholarly journals Sensitivity of simulated historical burned area to environmental andanthropogenic controls: A comparison of seven fire models

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lina Teckentrup ◽  
Sandy P. Harrison ◽  
Stijn Hantson ◽  
Angelika Heil ◽  
Joe R. Melton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Global Change ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Strong Response ◽  
Fire Models ◽  
In Fire ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Understanding how fire regimes change over time is of major importance for understanding their future impact on the Earth system, including society. Large differences in simulated burned area between fire models show that there is substantial uncertainty associated with modelling global change impacts on fire regimes. We draw here on sensitivity simulations made by seven global dynamic vegetation models participating in the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) to understand how differences in models translate into differences in fire regime projections. The sensitivity experiments isolate the impact of the individual drivers of fire, which are prescribed in the simulations. Specifically these drivers are atmospheric CO2, population density, land-use change, lightning and climate. The seven models capture spatial patterns in burned area. However, they show considerable differences in the burned area trends since 1900. We analyse the trajectories of differences between the sensitivity and reference simulation to improve our understanding of what drives the global trend in burned area. Where it is possible, we link the inter-model differences to model assumptions. Overall, these analyses reveal that the strongest differences leading to diverging trajectories are related to the way anthropogenic ignitions and suppression, as well as the effects of land-use on vegetation and fire, are incorporated in individual models. This points to a need to improve our understanding and model representation of the relationship between human activities and fire to improve our abilities to model fire for global change applications. Only two models show a strong response to CO2 and the response to lightning on global scale is low for all models. The sensitivity to climate shows a spatially heterogeneous response and globally only two models show a significant trend. It was not possible to attribute the climate-induced changes in burned area to model assumptions or specific climatic parameters. However, the strong influence of climate on the inter-annual variability in burned area, shown by all the models, shows that we need to pay attention to the simulation of fire weather but also meteorological influences on biomass accumulation and fuel properties in order to better capture extremes in fire behavior.

scholarly journals Response of simulated burned area to historical changes in environmental and anthropogenic factors: a comparison of seven fire models

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (19) ◽  
pp. 3883-3910 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lina Teckentrup ◽  
Sandy P. Harrison ◽  
Stijn Hantson ◽  
Angelika Heil ◽  
Joe R. Melton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentration ◽  
Fire Models ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Understanding how fire regimes change over time is of major importance for understanding their future impact on the Earth system, including society. Large differences in simulated burned area between fire models show that there is substantial uncertainty associated with modelling global change impacts on fire regimes. We draw here on sensitivity simulations made by seven global dynamic vegetation models participating in the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) to understand how differences in models translate into differences in fire regime projections. The sensitivity experiments isolate the impact of the individual drivers on simulated burned area, which are prescribed in the simulations. Specifically these drivers are atmospheric CO2 concentration, population density, land-use change, lightning and climate. The seven models capture spatial patterns in burned area. However, they show considerable differences in the burned area trends since 1921. We analyse the trajectories of differences between the sensitivity and reference simulation to improve our understanding of what drives the global trends in burned area. Where it is possible, we link the inter-model differences to model assumptions. Overall, these analyses reveal that the largest uncertainties in simulating global historical burned area are related to the representation of anthropogenic ignitions and suppression and effects of land use on vegetation and fire. In line with previous studies this highlights the need to improve our understanding and model representation of the relationship between human activities and fire to improve our abilities to model fire within Earth system model applications. Only two models show a strong response to atmospheric CO2 concentration. The effects of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration on fire are complex and quantitative information of how fuel loads and how flammability changes due to this factor is missing. The response to lightning on global scale is low. The response of burned area to climate is spatially heterogeneous and has a strong inter-annual variation. Climate is therefore likely more important than the other factors for short-term variations and extremes in burned area. This study provides a basis to understand the uncertainties in global fire modelling. Both improvements in process understanding and observational constraints reduce uncertainties in modelling burned area trends.

Inter- and intra-annual profiles of fire regimes in the managed forests of Canada and implications for resource sharing

2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steen Magnussen ◽  
Stephen W. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Resource Sharing ◽  
Joint Distribution ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Regional Synchrony

Year-to-year variation in fire activity in Canada constitutes a key challenge for fire management agencies. Interagency sharing of fire management resources has been ongoing on regional, national and international scales in Canada for several decades to better cope with peaks in resource demand. Inherent stressors on these schemes determined by the fire regimes in constituent jurisdictions are not well known, nor described by averages. We developed a statistical framework to examine the likelihood of regional synchrony of peaks in fire activity at a timescale of 1 week. Year-to-year variations in important fire regime variables and 48 regions in Canada are quantified by a joint distribution and profiled at the Provincial or Territorial level. The fire regime variables capture the timing of the fire season, the average number of fires, area burned, and the timing and extent of annual maxima. The onset of the fire season was strongly correlated with latitude and longitude. Regional synchrony in the timing of the maximum burned area within fire seasons delineates opportunities for and limitations to sharing of fire suppression resources during periods of stress that were quantified in Monte Carlo simulations from the joint distribution.

Future fires in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 6

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gitta Lasslop ◽  
Stijn Hantson ◽  
Victor Brovkin ◽  
Fang Li ◽  
David Lawrence ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Cloud Formation ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Earth System ◽  
System Models ◽  
Earth System Models

<p>Fires are an important component in Earth system models (ESMs), they impact vegetation carbon storage, vegetation distribution, atmospheric composition and cloud formation. The representation of fires in ESMs contributing to CMIP phase 5 was still very simplified. Several Earth system models updated their representation of fires in the meantime. Using the latest simulations of CMIP6 we investigate how fire regimes change in the future for different scenarios and how land use, climate and atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration contribute to the fire regimes changes. We quantify changes in fire danger, burned area and carbon emissions on an annual and seasonal basis. Factorial model simulations allow to quantify the influence of land use, climate and atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> on fire regimes.</p><p>We complement the information on fire regime change supplied by ESMs that include a fire module with a statistical modelling approach for burned area. This will use information from simulated changes in climate, vegetation and socioeconomic changes (population density and land use) provided for a set of different future scenarios. This allows the integration of information provided by global satellite products on burned area with the process-based simulations of climate and vegetation changes and information from socioeconomic scenarios.</p><p> </p>

Global distribution and temporal patterns of fire on peatlands

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Farina de Waard ◽  
Alexandra Barthelmes ◽  
Hans Joosten
Keyword(s):  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
North America ◽  
Land Reclamation ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Peat Fires ◽  
The Impact

<p>Peatland ecosystems provide critical ecosystem-services such as water and carbon storage and harbor unique biodiversity. Once ignited, peat fires may burn uncontrollably for weeks or months resulting in rapid ecosystem degradation and excessive CO<sub>2</sub>- Emissions. Despite the impact of peat fires on ecosystem services and climate, peatland fire regimes remain poorly characterized for many parts of the world. Here we investigate the global occurrence of peatland fires over the last two decades.</p><p>We estimate the global extent of peatland fires from 2009 to 2018 and identify drivers of variability and trends using a global peatland map (Global Peatland Database /Greifswald Mire Centre 2019), active fire detections from the Moderate Resolution imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and several fire regime and climate anomaly-datasets. The data were used to delineate 14 ‘Peatland Fire Regions’ (PFR).</p><p>Our results indicate that between 2009 and 2018 globally 553,950 km² of peatland have been affected by fire (7.88 % of the global peatland area), whereas patterns and trends are widely differing. The extent of fire-affected area in the PFRs of Boreal North America and Boreal Eurasia both exceeded 80,000 km², which for both areas accounts for ~3.5 % of the peatland area. In the same time, over 120,000 km² were affected in both Central Asia and Equatorial Asia, i.e. ~23 % of their respective peatland area.</p><p>Northern peatlands are rather subject to natural fires and fire incidence is mostly driven by climate anomalies like droughts. Large peaks in fire occurrence in Boreal North America and Boreal Eurasia were correlated with higher temperatures and less rain. The strong linkage of inter-annual fire variability to temperature anomalies suggests that in these regions fire frequency and intensity may increase in future.</p><p>In tropical regions, particularly those of Africa and Asia, peatland fires tended to occur on degraded peatlands and fires occurred often multiple times on the same site during our study period. While inter-annual variability in fire occurrence was strongly determined by climate, the long term trends in these regions are dominated by human land management. In Africa the fire affected peatland area was rather constant over the years and fires had the highest return frequency, which reflects the widespread culture of burning in land reclamation and agriculture.</p><p>Southern/Equatorial Asia and to some extent South America showed peaks correlated with ENSO associated drought events, leading to the largest fire-affected peatland area in just one year in the Equatorial Asia region of 50,900 km² (in 2015).</p>

scholarly journals Burned area trends in the Brazilian Cerrado: the roles of climate and anthropogenic drivers

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrícia S. Silva ◽  
Julia A. Rodrigues ◽  
Filippe L. M. Santos ◽  
Joana Nogueira ◽  
Allan A. Pereira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Anthropogenic Drivers

<p>Fire is a natural disturbance in the Brazilian savannas, Cerrado, with substantial ecological and economic impacts. Most studies have characterized the fire regime in this biome using climate drivers but neglected the geographical variation of anthropogenic activities. These factors can trigger inappropriate fire-fighting decisions and biodiversity conservation policies. This takes special relevance in fire-prone biomes with recent fire management policies as Cerrado, which have been highly modified over the last decades due to changes in land use and climate. </p><p>Here, we aim to identify how variations in climate and anthropogenic drivers influence burned area (BA) trends at the regional level (microregions) in Cerrado. We evaluated satellite-derived BA (MCD64, collection 6) for 172 microregions from 2001 to 2018 across the entire biome. The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) was used as a proxy of climate using meteorological variables from ECMWF’s ERA5 reanalysis product. The human leverage, considered here as population density (PD) and land use (LU), were derived, respectively, from the annual census of the Brazillian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and from a Brazilian platform of annual land use/cover mapping (MapBiomas). Recent BA trends considering the drivers FWI, LU and PD, were estimated using the non-parametric Theil-Sen regression and the modified Mann-Kendall test. </p><p>Results showed BA trends over the last 18 years were significant and spatially contrasted along Cerrado: positive trends were found in the north-eastern region (in particular, the most recent agricultural frontier in Brazil: MATOPIBA) whereas the south-western region showed negative trends. PD showed positive trends in all microregions and, similarly, LU obtained positive trends over most of Cerrado. Positive FWI trends were also found over the central and north-eastern regions and FWI was the driver that explained most of BA variance in Cerrado. LU and PD were found to have much more complex relations with BA. Moreover, regarding the seasonal variability of microregions with positive and negative trends, the former were found to begin earlier in June and last longer, indicating that the overall fire season in Cerrado may be extending. </p><p>The approach presented here allows the exploration of recent trends affecting fires, crucial to inform and support better allocation of resources in fire management under current and future conditions.</p><p>The study was funded by Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, Brazil (CNPQ) through grants 305159/2018-6 and 441971/2018-0. P. Silva is funded by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT), grant number SFRH/BD/146646/2019.</p>

Fire regime shift linked to increased forest density in a piñon–juniper savanna landscape

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellis Q. Margolis
Keyword(s):  
Regime Shift ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Tree Density ◽  
High Severity ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
In Fire

Piñon–juniper (PJ) fire regimes are generally characterised as infrequent high-severity. However, PJ ecosystems vary across a large geographic and bio-climatic range and little is known about one of the principal PJ functional types, PJ savannas. It is logical that (1) grass in PJ savannas could support frequent, low-severity fire and (2) exclusion of frequent fire could explain increased tree density in PJ savannas. To assess these hypotheses I used dendroecological methods to reconstruct fire history and forest structure in a PJ-dominated savanna. Evidence of high-severity fire was not observed. From 112 fire-scarred trees I reconstructed 87 fire years (1547–1899). Mean fire interval was 7.8 years for fires recorded at ≥2 sites. Tree establishment was negatively correlated with fire frequency (r=–0.74) and peak PJ establishment was synchronous with dry (unfavourable) conditions and a regime shift (decline) in fire frequency in the late 1800s. The collapse of the grass-fuelled, frequent, surface fire regime in this PJ savanna was likely the primary driver of current high tree density (mean=881treesha–1) that is >600% of the historical estimate. Variability in bio-climatic conditions likely drive variability in fire regimes across the wide range of PJ ecosystems.

Effect of fire regime on the grass community of the humid savanna of Lamto, Ivory Coast

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kouamé Fulgence Koffi ◽  
Aya Brigitte N’Dri ◽  
Jean-Christophe Lata ◽  
Souleymane Konaté ◽  
Tharaniya Srikanthasamy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Abundance ◽  
Ivory Coast ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Abundant Species ◽  
Grass Species ◽  
The Third ◽  
Humid Savanna ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Tussock Grasses

AbstractThis study assesses the impact of four fire treatments applied yearly over 3 y, i.e. early fire, mid-season fire, late fire and no fire treatments, on the grass communities of Lamto savanna, Ivory Coast. We describe communities of perennial tussock grasses on three replicated 5 × 5-m or 10 × 5-m plots of each fire treatment. Tussock density did not vary with fire treatment. The relative abundance of grass species, the circumference of grass tussocks and the probability of having a tussock with a central die-back, varied with fire treatment. Mid-season fire had the highest proportion of tussocks with a central die-back while the late fire had the smallest tussocks. Tussock density, circumference, relative abundance and probability of having a central die-back varied with species. Andropogon canaliculatus and Hyparrhenia diplandra were the most abundant of the nine grass species. They had the largest tussocks and the highest proportion of tussock with a central die-back. Loudetia simplex was the third most abundant species but was very rare in no fire plots. The distribution of tussock circumferences was right skewed and dominated by small tussocks. The proportion of the tussocks with a central die-back strongly increased with circumference, which could lead to tussock fragmentation. Taken together, this study suggests that fire regimes impact grass demography and that this impact depends on grass species and tussock size.

scholarly journals Can trophic rewilding reduce the impact of fire in a more flammable world?

2018 ◽  
Vol 373 (1761) ◽  
pp. 20170443 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher N. Johnson ◽  
Lynda D. Prior ◽  
Sally Archibald ◽  
Helen M. Poulos ◽  
Andrew M. Barton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Ground Vegetation ◽  
Litter Layer ◽  
Theme Issue ◽  
Large Herbivores ◽  
Plant Matter ◽  
The World ◽  
Large Animals ◽  
In Fire ◽  
The Impact

Large vertebrates affect fire regimes in several ways: by consuming plant matter that would otherwise accumulate as fuel; by controlling and varying the density of vegetation; and by engineering the soil and litter layer. These processes can regulate the frequency, intensity and extent of fire. The evidence for these effects is strongest in environments with intermediate rainfall, warm temperatures and graminoid-dominated ground vegetation. Probably, extinction of Quaternary megafauna triggered increased biomass burning in many such environments. Recent and continuing declines of large vertebrates are likely to be significant contributors to changes in fire regimes and vegetation that are currently being experienced in many parts of the world. To date, rewilding projects that aim to restore large herbivores have paid little attention to the value of large animals in moderating fire regimes. Rewilding potentially offers a powerful tool for managing the risks of wildfire and its impacts on natural and human values. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change’.

scholarly journals Reconstructing burnt area during the Holocene: an Iberian case study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yicheng Shen ◽  
Luke Sweeney ◽  
Mengmeng Liu ◽  
Jose Antonio Lopez Saez ◽  
Sebastián Pérez-Díaz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Weighted Averaging ◽  
Pollen Data ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Quantitative Estimates ◽  
In Fire ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pollen Records

Abstract. Charcoal accumulated in lake, bog or other anoxic sediments through time has been used to document the geographical patterns in changes in fire regimes. Such reconstructions are useful to explore the impact of climate and vegetation changes on fire during periods when the human influence was less prevalent than today. However, charcoal records only provide semi-quantitative estimates of change in biomass burning. Here we derive quantitative estimates of burnt area from vegetation data in two stages. First, we relate the modern charcoal abundance to burnt area using a conversion factor derived from a generalized linear model of burnt area probability based on eight environmental predictors. Then, we establish the relationship between fossil pollen assemblages and burnt area using Tolerance-weighted Weighted Averaging Partial Least-Squares with sampling frequency correction (fxTWA-PLS). We test this approach using the Iberian Peninsula as a case study because it is a fire-prone region with abundant pollen and charcoal records covering the Holocene. We derive the vegetation-burnt area relationship using the 29 records that have both modern and fossil charcoal and pollen data, and then reconstruct palaeo-burnt area for the 114 records with Holocene pollen records. The pollen data predict charcoal abundances through time relatively well (R2 = 0.47) and the changes in reconstructed burnt area are synchronous with known climate changes through the Holocene. This new method opens up the possibility of reconstructing changes in fire regimes quantitatively from pollen records, which are far more numerous than charcoal records.

scholarly journals Historical fire records at the two ends of Iberian Central Mountain System: Estrela massif and Ayllón massif

2019 ◽  
pp. 31
Author(s):  
Catarina Romão Sequeira ◽  
Cristina Montiel-Molina ◽  
Francisco Castro Rego
Keyword(s):  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Multiscale Approach ◽  
Natural Region ◽  
Fire Use ◽  
Prone Area ◽  
Mountain System ◽  
History Of ◽  
In Fire

The Iberian Peninsula has a long history of fire, as the Central Mountain System, from the Estrela massif in Portugal to the Ayllón massif in Spain, is a major fire-prone area. Despite being part of the same natural region, there are different environmental, political and socio-economic contexts at either end, which might have led to distinct human causes of wildfires and associated fire regimes. The hypothesis for this research lies in the historical long-term relationship between wildfire risks and fire use practices within a context of landscape dynamics. In addition to conducting an analysis of the statistical period, a spatial and temporal multiscale approach was taken by reconstructing the historical record of prestatistical fires and land management history at both ends of the Central Mountain System. The main result is the different structural causes of wildland fires at either end of the Central Mountain System, with human factors being more important than environmental factors in determining the fire regimes in both contexts. The study shows that the development of the fire regime was non-linear in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, due to broader local human context factors which led to a shift in fire-use practices.

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