scholarly journals Ocean carbon cycling during the past 130 000 years – a pilot study on inverse palaeoclimate record modelling

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 1949-1978 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Heinze ◽  
Babette A. A. Hoogakker ◽  
Arne Winguth
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Sediment Core ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Pattern ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Core Data ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Modelling Studies ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. What role did changes in marine carbon cycle processes and calcareous organisms play in glacial–interglacial variation in atmospheric pCO2? In order to answer this question, we explore results from an ocean biogeochemical general circulation model. We attempt to systematically reconcile model results with time-dependent sediment core data from the observations. For this purpose, we fit simulated sensitivities of oceanic tracer concentrations to changes in governing carbon cycle parameters to measured sediment core data. We assume that the time variation in the governing carbon cycle parameters follows the general pattern of the glacial–interglacial deuterium anomaly. Our analysis provides an independent estimate of a maximum mean sea surface temperature drawdown of about 5 °C and a maximum outgassing of the land biosphere by about 430 Pg C at the Last Glacial Maximum as compared to pre-industrial times. The overall fit of modelled palaeoclimate tracers to observations, however, remains quite weak, indicating the potential of more detailed modelling studies to fully exploit the information stored in the palaeoclimatic archive. This study confirms the hypothesis that a decline in ocean temperature and a more efficient biological carbon pump in combination with changes in ocean circulation are the key factors for explaining the glacial CO2 drawdown. The analysis suggests that potential changes in the export rain ratio POC : CaCO3 may not have a substantial imprint on the palaeoclimatic archive. The use of the last glacial as an inverted analogue to potential ocean acidification impacts thus may be quite limited. A strong decrease in CaCO3 export production could potentially contribute to the glacial CO2 decline in the atmosphere, but this remains hypothetical.

scholarly journals Ocean carbon cycling during the past 130,000 years – a pilot study on inverse paleoclimate record modelling

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Heinze ◽  
Babette Hoogakker ◽  
Arne Winguth
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Sediment Core ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Pattern ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Modelling Studies ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. What role did changes in marine carbon cycle processes and calcareous organisms play for glacial-interglacial variation in atmospheric pCO2? In order to answer this question, we explore results from an ocean biogeochemical ocean general circulation model. We make an attempt to systematically reconcile model results with time dependent sediment core data from the observations. For this purpose, simulated sensitivities of oceanic tracer concentrations to changes in governing carbon cycle parameters are fitted to measured sediment core data.We assume that the time variation of the governing carbon cycle parameters follows the general pattern of the glacial-interglacial deuterium anomaly. Our analysis provides an independent estimate of a maximum mean sea surface temperature drawdown of about 5 °C and a maximum outgassing of the land biosphere by about 430 PgC at the last glacial maximum as compared to preindustrial times. The overall fit of modelled paleoclimate tracers to observations, however, remains quite weak indicating the potential of more detailed modelling studies for full exploitation of the information as stored in the paleo-climatic archive. It can be confirmed, however, that a decline in ocean temperature and a more efficient biological carbon pump in combination with changes in ocean circulation are the key factors for explaining the glacial CO2 drawdown. The analysis suggests that potential changes in the export rain ratio POC:CaCO3 may not have a substantial imprint on the paleo-climatic archive. The use of the last glacial as an inverted analogue to potential ocean acidification impacts thus may be quite limited. A potential strong decrease in CaCO3 export production could contribute to the glacial CO2 decline in the atmosphere but remains hypothetical.

scholarly journals Palaeogeographic controls on climate and proxy interpretation

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1181-1198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel J. Lunt ◽  
Alex Farnsworth ◽  
Claire Loptson ◽  
Gavin L. Foster ◽  
Paul Markwick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Change ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Adjustment Factor ◽  
Climate Signal ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. During the period from approximately 150 to 35 million years ago, the Cretaceous–Paleocene–Eocene (CPE), the Earth was in a “greenhouse” state with little or no ice at either pole. It was also a period of considerable global change, from the warmest periods of the mid-Cretaceous, to the threshold of icehouse conditions at the end of the Eocene. However, the relative contribution of palaeogeographic change, solar change, and carbon cycle change to these climatic variations is unknown. Here, making use of recent advances in computing power, and a set of unique palaeogeographic maps, we carry out an ensemble of 19 General Circulation Model simulations covering this period, one simulation per stratigraphic stage. By maintaining atmospheric CO2 concentration constant across the simulations, we are able to identify the contribution from palaeogeographic and solar forcing to global change across the CPE, and explore the underlying mechanisms. We find that global mean surface temperature is remarkably constant across the simulations, resulting from a cancellation of opposing trends from solar and palaeogeographic change. However, there are significant modelled variations on a regional scale. The stratigraphic stage–stage transitions which exhibit greatest climatic change are associated with transitions in the mode of ocean circulation, themselves often associated with changes in ocean gateways, and amplified by feedbacks related to emissivity and planetary albedo. We also find some control on global mean temperature from continental area and global mean orography. Our results have important implications for the interpretation of single-site palaeo proxy records. In particular, our results allow the non-CO2 (i.e. palaeogeographic and solar constant) components of proxy records to be removed, leaving a more global component associated with carbon cycle change. This “adjustment factor” is used to adjust sea surface temperatures, as the deep ocean is not fully equilibrated in the model. The adjustment factor is illustrated for seven key sites in the CPE, and applied to proxy data from Falkland Plateau, and we provide data so that similar adjustments can be made to any site and for any time period within the CPE. Ultimately, this will enable isolation of the CO2-forced climate signal to be extracted from multiple proxy records from around the globe, allowing an evaluation of the regional signals and extent of polar amplification in response to CO2 changes during the CPE. Finally, regions where the adjustment factor is constant throughout the CPE could indicate places where future proxies could be targeted in order to reconstruct the purest CO2-induced temperature change, where the complicating contributions of other processes are minimised. Therefore, combined with other considerations, this work could provide useful information for supporting targets for drilling localities and outcrop studies.

The Effect of a Large Freshwater Perturbation on the Glacial North Atlantic Ocean Using a Coupled General Circulation Model

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (17) ◽  
pp. 4436-4447 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. D. Hewitt ◽  
A. J. Broccoli ◽  
M. Crucifix ◽  
J. M. Gregory ◽  
J. F. B. Mitchell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Quasi Equilibrium ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract The commonly held view of the conditions in the North Atlantic at the last glacial maximum, based on the interpretation of proxy records, is of large-scale cooling compared to today, limited deep convection, and extensive sea ice, all associated with a southward displaced and weakened overturning thermohaline circulation (THC) in the North Atlantic. Not all studies support that view; in particular, the “strength of the overturning circulation” is contentious and is a quantity that is difficult to determine even for the present day. Quasi-equilibrium simulations with coupled climate models forced by glacial boundary conditions have produced differing results, as have inferences made from proxy records. Most studies suggest the weaker circulation, some suggest little or no change, and a few suggest a stronger circulation. Here results are presented from a three-dimensional climate model, the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3), of the coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice system suggesting, in a qualitative sense, that these diverging views could all have occurred at different times during the last glacial period, with different modes existing at different times. One mode might have been characterized by an active THC associated with moderate temperatures in the North Atlantic and a modest expanse of sea ice. The other mode, perhaps forced by large inputs of meltwater from the continental ice sheets into the northern North Atlantic, might have been characterized by a sluggish THC associated with very cold conditions around the North Atlantic and a large areal cover of sea ice. The authors’ model simulation of such a mode, forced by a large input of freshwater, bears several of the characteristics of the Climate: Long-range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) Project’s reconstruction of glacial sea surface temperature and sea ice extent.

PMIP-carbon: towards a multi-models comparison of climate-carbon interactions at the Last Glacial Maximum

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathaelle Bouttes ◽  
Ruza Ivanovic ◽  
Ayako Abe-Ouchi ◽  
Hidetaka Kobayashi ◽  
Laurie Menviel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Carbon Isotopes ◽  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
The Last Glacial

<p>More and more climate models now include the carbon cycle, but multi-models studies of climate-carbon simulations within the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) are limited to present and future time periods. In addition, the carbon cycle is not considered in the simulations of past periods analysed within the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Yet, climate-carbon interactions are crucial to anticipate future atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations and their impact on climate. Such interactions can change depending on the background climate, it is thus necessary to compare model results among themselves and to data for past periods with different climates such as the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).</p><p>The Last Glacial Maximum, around 21,000 years ago, was about 4°C colder than the pre-industrial, and associated with large ice sheets on the American and Eurasian continents. It is one of the best documented periods thanks to numerous paleoclimate archives such as marine sediment cores and ice cores. Despite this period having been studied for years, no consensus on the causes of the lower atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration at the time (around 180 ppm) has been reached and models still struggle to simulate these low CO<sub>2</sub> values. The ocean, which contains around 40 times more carbon than the atmosphere, likely plays a key role, but models tend to simulate ocean circulation changes in disagreement with proxy data, such as carbon isotopes.</p><p>This new project aims at comparing, for the first time, the carbon cycle representation at the Last Glacial Maximum from general circulation models and intermediate complexity models. We will explain the protocol and present first results in terms of carbon storage in the main reservoirs (atmosphere, land and ocean) and their link to key climate variables such as temperature, sea ice and ocean circulation. The use of coupled climate-carbon models will not only allow to compare changes in the carbon cycle in models and analyse their causes, but it will also enable us to better compare to indirect data related to the carbon cycle such as carbon isotopes.</p>

scholarly journals Global peatland initiation driven by regionally asynchronous warming

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (19) ◽  
pp. 4851-4856 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul J. Morris ◽  
Graeme T. Swindles ◽  
Paul J. Valdes ◽  
Ruza F. Ivanovic ◽  
Lauren J. Gregoire ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ecological Change ◽  
Effective Precipitation ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Growing Seasons ◽  
Climate Space ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
The Last Glacial

Widespread establishment of peatlands since the Last Glacial Maximum represents the activation of a globally important carbon sink, but the drivers of peat initiation are unclear. The role of climate in peat initiation is particularly poorly understood. We used a general circulation model to simulate local changes in climate during the initiation of 1,097 peatlands around the world. We find that peat initiation in deglaciated landscapes in both hemispheres was driven primarily by warming growing seasons, likely through enhanced plant productivity, rather than by any increase in effective precipitation. In Western Siberia, which remained ice-free throughout the last glacial period, the initiation of the world’s largest peatland complex was globally unique in that it was triggered by an increase in effective precipitation that inhibited soil respiration and allowed wetland plant communities to establish. Peat initiation in the tropics was only weakly related to climate change, and appears to have been driven primarily by nonclimatic mechanisms such as waterlogging due to tectonic subsidence. Our findings shed light on the genesis and Holocene climate space of one of the world’s most carbon-dense ecosystem types, with implications for understanding trajectories of ecological change under changing future climates.

Thermal gradients in Europe during the last glacial-interglacial transition

2002 ◽  
Vol 81 (1) ◽  
pp. 113-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Renssen ◽  
R.F.B. Isarin ◽  
J. Vandenberghe
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Polar Front ◽  
Temperature Gradients ◽  
Temperature Profiles ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Reconstructed Temperature ◽  
East West ◽  
The Last Glacial

AbstractTemperature profiles along east-west and north-south transects in Europe are presented for four time-slices covering the two most prominent warming phases of the last glacial-interglacial transition: Late Pleniglacial (LP), early Bøiling (BL), Younger Dryas (YD), and Preboreal (PB). These temperature profiles are based on two methods: 1) simulation experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model, 2) reconstructions based on terrestrial geological and palaeoecological data. The profiles have The Netherlands as intersection point (52°N, 5°E). During the cold phases (LP and YD), the simulated and reconstructed temperature gradients are very steep in a north-south direction, ranging in January from -25°C in northern Europe (56–60°N) to at least 5°C near the Mediterranean, and in July from 0°C to 20°C. The east-west profiles along 52°N for LP and YD show that temperatures in Eastern Europe were similar to the Atlantic coast (i.e. between ‒15°C and ‒25°C). During the warm phases (BL and PB), the temperature regimes resembled present-day thermal conditions, although steeper north-south and east-west temperature gradients were present during BL and PB. The model simulations suggest that continental Europe was a few degrees warmer during PB and BL than today in July under influence of the relatively high summer insolation. Considering the change of climate through time, the profiles show that in The Netherlands the warming during the two transitions (LP-BL, YD-PB) was relatively small compared to regions to the West and North, whereas in Eastern and Southern Europe the temperature increase is even smaller. This reflects the dominant influence of latitudinal movements of the North Atlantic polar front and associated sea-ice margin.

scholarly journals Palaeogeographic controls on climate and proxy interpretation

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 5683-5725 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. J. Lunt ◽  
A. Farnsworth ◽  
C. Loptson ◽  
G. L. Foster ◽  
P. Markwick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Change ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms

Abstract. During the period from approximately 150 to 35 million years ago, the Cretaceous–Paleocene–Eocene (CPE), the Earth was in a "greenhouse" state with little or no ice at either pole. It was also a period of considerable global change, from the warmest periods of the mid Cretaceous, to the threshold of icehouse conditions at the end of the Eocene. However, the relative contribution of palaeogeographic change, solar change, and carbon cycle change to these climatic variations is unknown. Here, making use of recent advances in computing power, and a set of unique palaeogeographic maps, we carry out an ensemble of 19 General Circulation Model simulations covering this period, one simulation per stratigraphic stage. By maintaining atmospheric CO2 concentration constant across the simulations, we are able to identify the contribution from palaeogeographic and solar forcing to global change across the CPE, and explore the underlying mechanisms. We find that global mean surface temperature is remarkably constant across the simulations, resulting from a cancellation of opposing trends from solar and paleogeographic change. However, there are significant modelled variations on a regional scale. The stratigraphic stage–stage transitions which exhibit greatest climatic change are associated with transitions in the mode of ocean circulation, themselves often associated with changes in ocean gateways, and amplified by feedbacks related to emissivity and albedo. Our results also have implications for the interpretation of single-site palaeo proxy records. In particular, our results allow the non-CO2 (i.e. palaeogeographic and solar constant) components of proxy records to be removed, leaving a more global component associated with carbon cycle change. This "adjustment factor" is illustrated for 7 key sites in the CPE, and applied to proxy data from Falkland Plateau, and we provide data so that similar adjustments can be made to any site and for any time period within the CPE.

scholarly journals Quantifying the influence of the terrestrial biosphere on glacial–interglacial climate dynamics

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 1381-1401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taraka Davies-Barnard ◽  
Andy Ridgwell ◽  
Joy Singarayer ◽  
Paul Valdes
Keyword(s):  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Minor Role ◽  
Terrestrial Biosphere ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. The terrestrial biosphere is thought to be a key component in the climatic variability seen in the palaeo-record. It has a direct impact on surface temperature through changes in surface albedo and evapotranspiration (so-called biogeophysical effects) and, in addition, has an important indirect effect through changes in vegetation and soil carbon storage (biogeochemical effects) and hence modulates the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects generally have opposite signs, meaning that the terrestrial biosphere could potentially have played only a very minor role in the dynamics of the glacial–interglacial cycles of the late Quaternary. Here we use a fully coupled dynamic atmosphere–ocean–vegetation general circulation model (GCM) to generate a set of 62 equilibrium simulations spanning the last 120 kyr. The analysis of these simulations elucidates the relative importance of the biogeophysical versus biogeochemical terrestrial biosphere interactions with climate. We find that the biogeophysical effects of vegetation account for up to an additional −0.91 °C global mean cooling, with regional cooling as large as −5 °C, but with considerable variability across the glacial–interglacial cycle. By comparison, while opposite in sign, our model estimates of the biogeochemical impacts are substantially smaller in magnitude. Offline simulations show a maximum of +0.33 °C warming due to an increase of 25 ppm above our (pre-industrial) baseline atmospheric CO2 mixing ratio. In contrast to shorter (century) timescale projections of future terrestrial biosphere response where direct and indirect responses may at times cancel out, we find that the biogeophysical effects consistently and strongly dominate the biogeochemical effect over the inter-glacial cycle. On average across the period, the terrestrial biosphere has a −0.26 °C effect on temperature, with −0.58 °C at the Last Glacial Maximum. Depending on assumptions made about the destination of terrestrial carbon under ice sheets and where sea level has changed, the average terrestrial biosphere contribution over the last 120 kyr could be as much as −50 °C and −0.83 °C at the Last Glacial Maximum.

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