scholarly journals Extreme droughts and human responses to them: the Czech Lands in the pre-instrumental period

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rudolf Brázdil ◽  
Petr Dobrovolný ◽  
Miroslav Trnka ◽  
Ladislava Řezníčková ◽  
Lukáš Dolák ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Documentary Evidence ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Central European ◽  
Documentary Sources ◽  
Summer Half ◽  
Instrumental Period ◽  
Czech Lands

Abstract. The Czech Lands are particularly rich in documentary sources that help elucidate droughts in the pre-instrumental period (12th–18th centuries), together with descriptions of human responses to them. Although droughts appear less frequently before AD 1501, the documentary evidence has enabled the creation of series of seasonal and summer half-year drought indices (SPI, SPEI and Z-index) for the Czech Lands for the 1501–2017 period. Based on calculation of return period for series of drought indices, extreme droughts were selected for inclusion herein if all three indices indicated a return period of ≥ 20 years. For further analysis, only those from the pre-instrumental period (before AD 1804) were used. The extreme droughts selected are characterised by significantly lower values of drought indices, higher temperatures and lower precipitation totals compared to other years. The sea-level pressure patterns typically associated with extreme droughts include significantly higher pressure over Europe and significantly lower pressure over parts of the Atlantic Ocean. Extreme droughts with a return period ≥ 50 years are described in detail on the basis of Czech documentary evidence. A number of selected extreme droughts are reflected in other central European reconstructions derived from documentary data or tree-rings. Impacts on social life and responses to extreme droughts are summarised; analysis of fluctuations in grain prices with respect to drought receives particular attention. Finally, extreme droughts from the pre-instrumental and instrumental periods are discussed.

scholarly journals Extreme droughts and human responses to them: the Czech Lands in the pre-instrumental period

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rudolf Brázdil ◽  
Petr Dobrovolný ◽  
Miroslav Trnka ◽  
Ladislava Řezníčková ◽  
Lukáš Dolák ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Documentary Evidence ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Documentary Sources ◽  
Summer Half ◽  
Instrumental Period ◽  
Czech Lands

Abstract. The Czech Lands are particularly rich in documentary sources that help elucidate droughts in the pre-instrumental period (12th–18th centuries), together with descriptions of human responses to them. Although droughts appear less frequently before 1501, the documentary evidence has enabled the creation of a series of seasonal and summer half-year drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI; Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI; Z index) for the Czech Lands for the 1501–2017 period. Based on the calculation of return period for series of drought indices, extreme droughts were selected for inclusion herein if all three indices indicated a return period of ≥20 years. For further analysis, only those from the pre-instrumental period (before 1804) were used. The extreme droughts selected are characterized by significantly lower values of drought indices, higher temperatures and lower precipitation totals compared to other years. The sea-level pressure patterns typically associated with extreme droughts include significantly higher pressure over Europe and significantly lower pressure over parts of the Atlantic Ocean. Extreme droughts with a return period ≥ 50 years are described in detail on the basis of Czech documentary evidence. A number of selected extreme droughts are reflected in other central European reconstructions derived from documentary data or tree rings. Impacts on social life and responses to extreme droughts are summarized; analysis of fluctuations in grain prices with respect to drought receives particular attention. Finally, extreme droughts from the pre-instrumental and instrumental periods are discussed.

scholarly journals Droughts in the Czech Lands, 1090–2012 AD

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1985-2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Brázdil ◽  
P. Dobrovolný ◽  
M. Trnka ◽  
O. Kotyza ◽  
L. Řezníčková ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Drought Indices ◽  
Documentary Evidence ◽  
Documentary Sources ◽  
Recurrence Intervals ◽  
Southern Moravia ◽  
Instrumental Period ◽  
Instrumental Records ◽  
Czech Lands ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract. This paper addresses droughts in the Czech Lands in the 1090–2012 AD period, basing its findings on documentary evidence and instrumental records. Various documentary sources were employed for the selection of drought events, which were then interpreted at a monthly level. While the data on droughts before 1500 AD are scarce, the analysis concentrated mainly on droughts after this time. A dry year in 1501–1804 period (i.e. pre-instrumental times) was defined as a calendar year in the course of which dry patterns occurred on at least two consecutive months. Using this definition, 129 dry years were identified (an average of one drought per 2.4 yr). From the 16th to the 18th centuries these figures become 41, 36 and 49 yr respectively, with the prevailing occurrence of dry months from April to September (73.7%). Drought indices – SPEI-1, Z-index and PDSI – calculated for the Czech Lands for April–September describe drought patterns between 1805 and 2012 (the instrumental period). N-year recurrence intervals were calculated for each of the three indices. Using N ≥ 5 yr, SPEI-1 indicates 40 drought years, Z-index 39 yr and PDSI 47 yr. SPEI-1 and Z-index recorded 100 yr drought in 1834, 1842, 1868, 1947 and 2003 (50 yr drought in 1992). PDSI as an indicator of long-term drought disclosed two important drought periods: 1863–1874 and 2004–2012. The first period was related to a lack of precipitation, the other may be attributed to recent temperature increases without significant changes in precipitation. Droughts from the pre-instrumental and instrumental period were used to compile a long-term chronology for the Czech Lands. The number of years with drought has fluctuated between 26 in 1951–2000 and 16 in 1651–1700. Only nine drought years were recorded between 1641 and 1680, while between 1981 and 2012 the figure was 22 yr. A number of past severe droughts are described in detail: in 1540, 1590, 1616, 1718 and 1719. A discussion of the results centres around the uncertainty problem, the spatial variability of droughts, comparison with tree-ring reconstructions from southern Moravia, and the broader central European context.

scholarly journals Droughts in the Czech Lands, 1090–2012 AD

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 2423-2470 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Brázdil ◽  
P. Dobrovolný ◽  
M. Trnka ◽  
O. Kotyza ◽  
L. Řezníčková ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Drought Indices ◽  
Documentary Evidence ◽  
Documentary Sources ◽  
Recurrence Intervals ◽  
Southern Moravia ◽  
Instrumental Period ◽  
Instrumental Records ◽  
Czech Lands ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract. This paper addresses droughts in the Czech Lands in the 1090–2012 AD period, basing its findings on documentary evidence and instrumental records. Various documentary sources were employed for the selection of drought events, which were then interpreted at a monthly level. While the data on droughts before 1500 AD are scarce, the analysis concentrated mainly on droughts after this time. A dry year in 1501–1804 period (i.e. pre-instrumental times) was defined as a calendar year in the course of which dry patterns occurred on at least two consecutive months. Using this definition, 129 dry years were identified (an average of one drought per 2.4 yr). From the 16th to the 18th centuries these figures become 41, 36 and 49 yr, respectively, with the prevailing occurrence of dry months from April to September (73.7%). Drought indices – SPEI-1, Z-index and PDSI – calculated for the Czech Lands for April–September describe drought patterns between 1805 and 2012 (the instrumental period). N year recurrence intervals were calculated for each of the three indices. Using N ≥ 5 yr, SPEI-1 indicates 40 drought years, Z-index 39 yr and PDSI 47 yr. SPEI-1 and Z-index recorded 100 yr drought in 1834, 1842, 1868, 1947 and 2003 (50 yr drought in 1992). PDSI as an indicator of long-term drought disclosed two important drought periods: 1863–1874 and 2004–2012. The first period was related to a lack of precipitation, the other may be attributed to recent temperature increases without significant changes in precipitation. Droughts from the pre-instrumental and instrumental period were used to compile a long-term chronology for the Czech Lands. The number of years with drought has fluctuated between 26 in 1951–2000 and 16 in 1651–1700. Only nine drought years were recorded between 1641 and 1680, while between 1981 and 2012 the figure was 22 yr. A number of past severe droughts are described in detail: in 1540, 1590, 1616, 1718 and 1719. A discussion of the results centres around the uncertainty problem, the spatial variability of droughts, comparison with tree-ring reconstructions from southern Moravia, and the broader Central European context.

scholarly journals Historical changes in frequency of extreme floods in Prague

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (10) ◽  
pp. 4307-4315 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Elleder
Keyword(s):  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Flood Frequency Analysis ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Central European ◽  
Extreme Floods ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
The Past ◽  
Documentary Sources ◽  
Instrumental Period ◽  
Peak Discharges

Abstract. This study presents a flood frequency analysis for the Vltava River catchment using a major profile in Prague. The estimates of peak discharges for the pre-instrumental period of 1118–1824 based on documentary sources were carried out using different approaches. 187 flood peak discharges derived for the pre-instrumental period augmented 150 records for the instrumental period of 1825–2013. Flood selection was based on Q10 criteria. Six flood-rich periods in total were identified for 1118–2013. Results of this study correspond with similar studies published earlier for some central European catchments, except for the period around 1750. Presented results indicate that the territory of the present Czech Republic might have experienced extreme floods in the past, comparable – with regard to peak discharge (higher than or equal to Q10) and frequency – to the flood events recorded recently.

scholarly journals Extreme summer and winter temperatures in the Czech Lands after A.D. 1500 and their Central European context

Geografie ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 115 (3) ◽  
pp. 266-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petr Dobrovolný ◽  
Rudolf Brázdil ◽  
Oldřich Kotyza ◽  
Hubert Valášek
Keyword(s):  
Documentary Evidence ◽  
Spatial Correlations ◽  
Central European ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Temperature Indices ◽  
Azores High ◽  
Czech Lands ◽  
Better Than

Extremely cold/mild winters (DJF) and extremely cold/warm summers (JJA) in the Czech Lands were derived from series of temperature indices based on documentary evidence (1500–1854) and from series of air temperatures measured at the Prague-Klementinum station (1771–2007) over the past 500 years. Altogether 24 cold winters, 23 mild winters, 18 cold summers and 21 warm summers emerged. Czech extremes were compared with the Central European temperature series and series of documentary-based temperature indices for the Low Countries, Germany and Switzerland. Analysis of composite sea level pressure fields confirms advection of cold air from the north-west (extremely cold summers) or from the east (extremely cold winters). Mild winters are related to warm airflow from the west or south-west and extremely warm summers to the influence of high pressure related to the Azores High. Spatial correlations of extremes for winters proved better than for summers. We demonstrate that documentary evidence explains temperature variability for winter better than it does for the other seasons.

scholarly journals Historical changes in frequency and seasonality of extreme floods in Prague

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 1633-1652 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Elleder
Keyword(s):  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Flood Frequency Analysis ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Central European ◽  
Extreme Floods ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
The Past ◽  
Documentary Sources ◽  
Instrumental Period ◽  
Peak Discharges

Abstract. This study presents a flood frequency analysis for the Vltava River catchment using a major profile in Prague. The estimates of peak discharges for the pre-instrumental period of 1118–1824 based on documentary sources were carried out using different approaches. 187 flood peak discharges derived for the pre-instrumental period augmented 150 records for the instrumental period of 1825–2013. Flood selection was based on Q10 criteria. Six flood-rich periods in total were identified for 1118–2013. Results of this study correspond with similar studies published earlier for some Central European catchments, except for the period around 1750. Presented results indicate that the territory of the present Czech Republic might have experienced in the past, extreme floods comparable, with regard to peak discharge (POTQ10) and frequency, to the flood events recorded recently.

Chronology of strong winds based on documentary evidence in the Czech Republic from AD 1510

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukáš Dolák ◽  
Rudolf Brázdil ◽  
Petr Dobrovolný ◽  
Hubert Valášek ◽  
Ladislava Řezníčková ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Documentary Evidence ◽  
Convective Storms ◽  
Scientific Papers ◽  
Strong Winds ◽  
Instrumental Period ◽  
Czech Lands ◽  
Wind Speed Measurement

<p>To develop an understanding of recent variability in strong winds, it is necessary to analyse their past behaviour. While relatively short series of wind-speed measurement in the Czech Lands (recent Czech Republic) started mostly in the first half of the 20<sup>th</sup> century, documentary evidence represents a valuable source of information helping extend the knowledge of strong winds to the pre-instrumental period. In this study, we analyse strong winds on the basis of chronicles, weather diaries, early journalism, economic and financial sources, as well as old academic journals, newspapers, professional papers and recent scientific papers. The created dataset presents a chronology of strong winds in the Czech Lands from AD 1510 to present. The dataset contains more than 5000 events, which are classified on duration, location, extent, severity and type of damage on squalls (convective storms), tornadoes, blizzards, gales and windstorms. Gales, often accompanied by loss of human lives, damage to buildings and forests (windthrows), are the most frequently recorded type of strong winds (44%), followed by blizzards (26%), squalls (18%), and tornadoes (7%). Strong winds detected are concentrated 1820s to late-1840s, 1900s to late-1930s and in the 2000s. Seasonal distribution of strong winds is relatively equal throughout the chronology with the highest frequency in July (10.0%), January (8.6%), and December (8.1%). Uncertainties in results emerge from a different spatiotemporal density of documentary data and from the ambiguous nature of some records in determining the classification of strong winds or attribution of damage caused to particular events. Our results highlight the importance of documentary evidence in the analysis of strong winds and contribute to a better understanding of their spatiotemporal variability in the past.</p>

scholarly journals Documentary data and the study of past droughts: a global state of the art

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 1915-1960 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rudolf Brázdil ◽  
Andrea Kiss ◽  
Jürg Luterbacher ◽  
David J. Nash ◽  
Ladislava Řezníčková
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Documentary Evidence ◽  
Climatic Trends ◽  
Instrumental Observations ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Epigraphic Evidence ◽  
Administrative Evidence

Abstract. The use of documentary evidence to investigate past climatic trends and events has become a recognised approach in recent decades. This contribution presents the state of the art in its application to droughts. The range of documentary evidence is very wide, including general annals, chronicles, memoirs and diaries kept by missionaries, travellers and those specifically interested in the weather; records kept by administrators tasked with keeping accounts and other financial and economic records; legal-administrative evidence; religious sources; letters; songs; newspapers and journals; pictographic evidence; chronograms; epigraphic evidence; early instrumental observations; society commentaries; and compilations and books. These are available from many parts of the world. This variety of documentary information is evaluated with respect to the reconstruction of hydroclimatic conditions (precipitation, drought frequency and drought indices). Documentary-based drought reconstructions are then addressed in terms of long-term spatio-temporal fluctuations, major drought events, relationships with external forcing and large-scale climate drivers, socio-economic impacts and human responses. Documentary-based drought series are also considered from the viewpoint of spatio-temporal variability for certain continents, and their employment together with hydroclimate reconstructions from other proxies (in particular tree rings) is discussed. Finally, conclusions are drawn, and challenges for the future use of documentary evidence in the study of droughts are presented.

A Tale of Two Revolutions: Hungary’s 1956 and the Un-doing of 1989

2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 479-499 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victoria Harms
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Special Section ◽  
Documentary Evidence ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Central European ◽  
National Symbols ◽  
European Unity ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Museum Exhibitions

This article is part of the special section titled The Genealogies of Memory, guest edited by Ferenc Laczó and Joanna Wawrzyniak This article investigates the evolution of Hungary’s memory of 1956, from the counterrevolution to the dissident struggle for rehabilitation in the eighties, its relation to the change of regimes in 1989, and its subsequent appropriation for nationalist purposes in defiance of a European memory regime. Mnemonic warriors like Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and historian Mária Schmidt have championed 1956 as a struggle for freedom and independence and symbols of Hungarian martyrdom and bravery. Only recently a new-found Central European unity in adversity has been observed: the “counterrevolution” against the European Union. Perusing interviews, samizdat articles, public appeals and speeches, and other documentary evidence, including historical analyses, this article identifies mnemonic actors and strategies to assess the intricate relationship between 1956 and 1989. The analysis of museum exhibitions, statues, monuments, and national symbols helps reveal the varying significance ascribed to 1956 before and after 1989. The study relies on the conceptual groundwork of Michael Bernhard and Jan Kubik. It contributes to arguments put forth by historians James Mark, Anna Seleny, Nora Borodziej, and Árpád von Klimó.

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