scholarly journals Droughts in the Czech Lands, 1090–2012 AD

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1985-2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Brázdil ◽  
P. Dobrovolný ◽  
M. Trnka ◽  
O. Kotyza ◽  
L. Řezníčková ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Drought Indices ◽  
Documentary Evidence ◽  
Documentary Sources ◽  
Recurrence Intervals ◽  
Southern Moravia ◽  
Instrumental Period ◽  
Instrumental Records ◽  
Czech Lands ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract. This paper addresses droughts in the Czech Lands in the 1090–2012 AD period, basing its findings on documentary evidence and instrumental records. Various documentary sources were employed for the selection of drought events, which were then interpreted at a monthly level. While the data on droughts before 1500 AD are scarce, the analysis concentrated mainly on droughts after this time. A dry year in 1501–1804 period (i.e. pre-instrumental times) was defined as a calendar year in the course of which dry patterns occurred on at least two consecutive months. Using this definition, 129 dry years were identified (an average of one drought per 2.4 yr). From the 16th to the 18th centuries these figures become 41, 36 and 49 yr respectively, with the prevailing occurrence of dry months from April to September (73.7%). Drought indices – SPEI-1, Z-index and PDSI – calculated for the Czech Lands for April–September describe drought patterns between 1805 and 2012 (the instrumental period). N-year recurrence intervals were calculated for each of the three indices. Using N ≥ 5 yr, SPEI-1 indicates 40 drought years, Z-index 39 yr and PDSI 47 yr. SPEI-1 and Z-index recorded 100 yr drought in 1834, 1842, 1868, 1947 and 2003 (50 yr drought in 1992). PDSI as an indicator of long-term drought disclosed two important drought periods: 1863–1874 and 2004–2012. The first period was related to a lack of precipitation, the other may be attributed to recent temperature increases without significant changes in precipitation. Droughts from the pre-instrumental and instrumental period were used to compile a long-term chronology for the Czech Lands. The number of years with drought has fluctuated between 26 in 1951–2000 and 16 in 1651–1700. Only nine drought years were recorded between 1641 and 1680, while between 1981 and 2012 the figure was 22 yr. A number of past severe droughts are described in detail: in 1540, 1590, 1616, 1718 and 1719. A discussion of the results centres around the uncertainty problem, the spatial variability of droughts, comparison with tree-ring reconstructions from southern Moravia, and the broader central European context.

scholarly journals Droughts in the Czech Lands, 1090–2012 AD

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 2423-2470 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Brázdil ◽  
P. Dobrovolný ◽  
M. Trnka ◽  
O. Kotyza ◽  
L. Řezníčková ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Drought Indices ◽  
Documentary Evidence ◽  
Documentary Sources ◽  
Recurrence Intervals ◽  
Southern Moravia ◽  
Instrumental Period ◽  
Instrumental Records ◽  
Czech Lands ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract. This paper addresses droughts in the Czech Lands in the 1090–2012 AD period, basing its findings on documentary evidence and instrumental records. Various documentary sources were employed for the selection of drought events, which were then interpreted at a monthly level. While the data on droughts before 1500 AD are scarce, the analysis concentrated mainly on droughts after this time. A dry year in 1501–1804 period (i.e. pre-instrumental times) was defined as a calendar year in the course of which dry patterns occurred on at least two consecutive months. Using this definition, 129 dry years were identified (an average of one drought per 2.4 yr). From the 16th to the 18th centuries these figures become 41, 36 and 49 yr, respectively, with the prevailing occurrence of dry months from April to September (73.7%). Drought indices – SPEI-1, Z-index and PDSI – calculated for the Czech Lands for April–September describe drought patterns between 1805 and 2012 (the instrumental period). N year recurrence intervals were calculated for each of the three indices. Using N ≥ 5 yr, SPEI-1 indicates 40 drought years, Z-index 39 yr and PDSI 47 yr. SPEI-1 and Z-index recorded 100 yr drought in 1834, 1842, 1868, 1947 and 2003 (50 yr drought in 1992). PDSI as an indicator of long-term drought disclosed two important drought periods: 1863–1874 and 2004–2012. The first period was related to a lack of precipitation, the other may be attributed to recent temperature increases without significant changes in precipitation. Droughts from the pre-instrumental and instrumental period were used to compile a long-term chronology for the Czech Lands. The number of years with drought has fluctuated between 26 in 1951–2000 and 16 in 1651–1700. Only nine drought years were recorded between 1641 and 1680, while between 1981 and 2012 the figure was 22 yr. A number of past severe droughts are described in detail: in 1540, 1590, 1616, 1718 and 1719. A discussion of the results centres around the uncertainty problem, the spatial variability of droughts, comparison with tree-ring reconstructions from southern Moravia, and the broader Central European context.

scholarly journals Extreme droughts and human responses to them: the Czech Lands in the pre-instrumental period

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rudolf Brázdil ◽  
Petr Dobrovolný ◽  
Miroslav Trnka ◽  
Ladislava Řezníčková ◽  
Lukáš Dolák ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Documentary Evidence ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Documentary Sources ◽  
Summer Half ◽  
Instrumental Period ◽  
Czech Lands

Abstract. The Czech Lands are particularly rich in documentary sources that help elucidate droughts in the pre-instrumental period (12th–18th centuries), together with descriptions of human responses to them. Although droughts appear less frequently before 1501, the documentary evidence has enabled the creation of a series of seasonal and summer half-year drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI; Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI; Z index) for the Czech Lands for the 1501–2017 period. Based on the calculation of return period for series of drought indices, extreme droughts were selected for inclusion herein if all three indices indicated a return period of ≥20 years. For further analysis, only those from the pre-instrumental period (before 1804) were used. The extreme droughts selected are characterized by significantly lower values of drought indices, higher temperatures and lower precipitation totals compared to other years. The sea-level pressure patterns typically associated with extreme droughts include significantly higher pressure over Europe and significantly lower pressure over parts of the Atlantic Ocean. Extreme droughts with a return period ≥ 50 years are described in detail on the basis of Czech documentary evidence. A number of selected extreme droughts are reflected in other central European reconstructions derived from documentary data or tree rings. Impacts on social life and responses to extreme droughts are summarized; analysis of fluctuations in grain prices with respect to drought receives particular attention. Finally, extreme droughts from the pre-instrumental and instrumental periods are discussed.

scholarly journals Extreme droughts and human responses to them: the Czech Lands in the pre-instrumental period

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rudolf Brázdil ◽  
Petr Dobrovolný ◽  
Miroslav Trnka ◽  
Ladislava Řezníčková ◽  
Lukáš Dolák ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Documentary Evidence ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Central European ◽  
Documentary Sources ◽  
Summer Half ◽  
Instrumental Period ◽  
Czech Lands

Abstract. The Czech Lands are particularly rich in documentary sources that help elucidate droughts in the pre-instrumental period (12th–18th centuries), together with descriptions of human responses to them. Although droughts appear less frequently before AD 1501, the documentary evidence has enabled the creation of series of seasonal and summer half-year drought indices (SPI, SPEI and Z-index) for the Czech Lands for the 1501–2017 period. Based on calculation of return period for series of drought indices, extreme droughts were selected for inclusion herein if all three indices indicated a return period of ≥ 20 years. For further analysis, only those from the pre-instrumental period (before AD 1804) were used. The extreme droughts selected are characterised by significantly lower values of drought indices, higher temperatures and lower precipitation totals compared to other years. The sea-level pressure patterns typically associated with extreme droughts include significantly higher pressure over Europe and significantly lower pressure over parts of the Atlantic Ocean. Extreme droughts with a return period ≥ 50 years are described in detail on the basis of Czech documentary evidence. A number of selected extreme droughts are reflected in other central European reconstructions derived from documentary data or tree-rings. Impacts on social life and responses to extreme droughts are summarised; analysis of fluctuations in grain prices with respect to drought receives particular attention. Finally, extreme droughts from the pre-instrumental and instrumental periods are discussed.

scholarly journals Documentary data and the study of past droughts: a global state of the art

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 1915-1960 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rudolf Brázdil ◽  
Andrea Kiss ◽  
Jürg Luterbacher ◽  
David J. Nash ◽  
Ladislava Řezníčková
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Documentary Evidence ◽  
Climatic Trends ◽  
Instrumental Observations ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Epigraphic Evidence ◽  
Administrative Evidence

Abstract. The use of documentary evidence to investigate past climatic trends and events has become a recognised approach in recent decades. This contribution presents the state of the art in its application to droughts. The range of documentary evidence is very wide, including general annals, chronicles, memoirs and diaries kept by missionaries, travellers and those specifically interested in the weather; records kept by administrators tasked with keeping accounts and other financial and economic records; legal-administrative evidence; religious sources; letters; songs; newspapers and journals; pictographic evidence; chronograms; epigraphic evidence; early instrumental observations; society commentaries; and compilations and books. These are available from many parts of the world. This variety of documentary information is evaluated with respect to the reconstruction of hydroclimatic conditions (precipitation, drought frequency and drought indices). Documentary-based drought reconstructions are then addressed in terms of long-term spatio-temporal fluctuations, major drought events, relationships with external forcing and large-scale climate drivers, socio-economic impacts and human responses. Documentary-based drought series are also considered from the viewpoint of spatio-temporal variability for certain continents, and their employment together with hydroclimate reconstructions from other proxies (in particular tree rings) is discussed. Finally, conclusions are drawn, and challenges for the future use of documentary evidence in the study of droughts are presented.

scholarly journals Documentary data and the study of the past droughts: an overview of the state of the art worldwide

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rudolf Brázdil ◽  
Andrea Kiss ◽  
Jürg Luterbacher ◽  
David J. Nash ◽  
Ladislava Řezníčková
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
The State ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Documentary Evidence ◽  
Instrumental Observations ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Epigraphic Evidence ◽  
Administrative Evidence

Abstract. The use of documentary evidence to investigate past climatic trends and events has become a recognised approach in recent decades. This contribution presents the state of the art in its application to droughts. The range of documentary evidence is very wide, including: general annals, chronicles, and memoirs, diaries kept by missionaries, travellers and those specifically interested in the weather, the records kept by administrators tasked with keeping accounts and other financial and economic records, legal-administrative evidence, religious sources, letters, marketplace and shopkeepers' songs, newspapers and journals, pictographic evidence, chronograms, epigraphic evidence, early instrumental observations, society commentaries, compilations and books, and historical-climatological databases. These come from many parts of the world. This variety of documentary information is evaluated with respect to the reconstruction of hydroclimatic conditions (precipitation, drought frequency and drought indices). Documentary-based drought reconstructions are then addressed in terms of long-term spatio-temporal fluctuations, major drought events, relationships with external forcing and large-scale climate drivers, socio-economic impacts and human responses. Documentary-based drought series are also discussed from the viewpoint of spatio-temporal variability for certain continents, and their employment together with hydroclimate reconstructions from other proxies (in particular tree-rings) is discussed. Finally, conclusions are drawn and challenges for the future use of documentary evidence in the study of droughts are presented.

scholarly journals Design droughts as planning tool for ecosystem establishment in post-mining landscapes

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 4809-4849 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Halwatura ◽  
A. M. Lechner ◽  
S. Arnold
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Minor Role ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Recurrence Intervals ◽  
Different Time Scales

Abstract. Eastern Australia has considerable mineral and energy resources and areas of high biodiversity value co-occurring over a broad range of agro-climatic environments. Water is the primary abiotic stressor for (agro)ecosystems in many parts of Eastern Australia. In the context of mined land rehabilitation quantifying the severity-duration-frequency (SDF) of droughts is crucial for successful ecosystem rehabilitation to overcome challenges of early vegetation establishment and long-term ecosystem resilience. The objective of this study was to quantify the SDF of short-term and long-term drought events of 11 selected locations across a broad range of agro-climatic environments in Eastern Australia by using three drought indices at different time scales: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Based on the indices we derived bivariate distribution functions of drought severity and duration, and estimated the recurrence intervals of drought events at different time scales. The correlation between the simple SPI and the more complex SPEI or RDI was stronger for the tropical and temperate locations than for the arid locations, indicating that SPEI or RDI can be replaced by SPI if evaporation plays a minor role for plant available water. Both short-term and long-term droughts were most severe and prolonged, and occurred most frequently in arid regions, but were relatively rare in tropical and temperate regions. Our approach is similar to intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) analyses of rainfall crucial to design infrastructure. In this regard, we propose to apply SDF analyses of droughts to design ecosystem components in post-mining landscapes. Together with design rainfalls, design droughts should be used to assess rehabilitation strategies and ecological management based on drought recurrence intervals, thereby minimising the risk of failure of initial ecosystem establishment due to ignorance of fundamental abiotic and site-specific environmental barriers.

Chronology of strong winds based on documentary evidence in the Czech Republic from AD 1510

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukáš Dolák ◽  
Rudolf Brázdil ◽  
Petr Dobrovolný ◽  
Hubert Valášek ◽  
Ladislava Řezníčková ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Documentary Evidence ◽  
Convective Storms ◽  
Scientific Papers ◽  
Strong Winds ◽  
Instrumental Period ◽  
Czech Lands ◽  
Wind Speed Measurement

<p>To develop an understanding of recent variability in strong winds, it is necessary to analyse their past behaviour. While relatively short series of wind-speed measurement in the Czech Lands (recent Czech Republic) started mostly in the first half of the 20<sup>th</sup> century, documentary evidence represents a valuable source of information helping extend the knowledge of strong winds to the pre-instrumental period. In this study, we analyse strong winds on the basis of chronicles, weather diaries, early journalism, economic and financial sources, as well as old academic journals, newspapers, professional papers and recent scientific papers. The created dataset presents a chronology of strong winds in the Czech Lands from AD 1510 to present. The dataset contains more than 5000 events, which are classified on duration, location, extent, severity and type of damage on squalls (convective storms), tornadoes, blizzards, gales and windstorms. Gales, often accompanied by loss of human lives, damage to buildings and forests (windthrows), are the most frequently recorded type of strong winds (44%), followed by blizzards (26%), squalls (18%), and tornadoes (7%). Strong winds detected are concentrated 1820s to late-1840s, 1900s to late-1930s and in the 2000s. Seasonal distribution of strong winds is relatively equal throughout the chronology with the highest frequency in July (10.0%), January (8.6%), and December (8.1%). Uncertainties in results emerge from a different spatiotemporal density of documentary data and from the ambiguous nature of some records in determining the classification of strong winds or attribution of damage caused to particular events. Our results highlight the importance of documentary evidence in the analysis of strong winds and contribute to a better understanding of their spatiotemporal variability in the past.</p>

scholarly journals Long-term variability of droughts in the Czech Lands and large-scale climate drivers

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiří Mikšovský ◽  
Rudolf Brázdil ◽  
Miroslav Trnka ◽  
Petr Pišoft
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Climate Forcings ◽  
Czech Lands

Abstract. While a considerable number of records document the temporal variability of droughts for central Europe, understanding of its underlying causes remains limited. In this contribution, time series of three drought indices (SPI, SPEI, PDSI) that may be used to characterize the long-term drought regime of the Czech Lands are analyzed with regard to their mid-to-long-term variability and potential links to external and internal climate forcings over the 1501–2006 period. Employing instrumental and proxy-based data characterizing the external climate forcings (solar and volcanic activity, concentration of greenhouse gases) in parallel with series that correspond to the activity of climate variability modes with pronounced inter-annual to inter-decadal variability (El Niño–Southern Oscillation – ENSO, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation – AMO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation – PDO), regression and wavelet analysis were deployed to identify and quantify the temporal variability patterns of drought indices and similarity between individual signals. Aside from the long-term trend that correlates with anthropogenic radiative forcing, temperatures in the AMO and PDO regions were disclosed as one of the possible drivers of inter-decadal variability in the Czech drought regime. Colder and wetter episodes were found to coincide with increased volcanic activity, while no clear signature of solar activity was found. In addition to identification of the links themselves, their temporal stability and coherence were investigated. The oscillations at periods of approximately 60–100 years were found to be potentially relevant in establishing the teleconnections affecting the long-term variability of central European droughts.

scholarly journals Climatic effects and impacts of the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in the Czech Lands

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1361-1374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rudolf Brázdil ◽  
Ladislava Řezníčková ◽  
Hubert Valášek ◽  
Lukáš Dolák ◽  
Oldřich Kotyza
Keyword(s):  
Human Life ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Sunspot Activity ◽  
Climatic Effects ◽  
Documentary Sources ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Climatic Responses ◽  
Czech Lands

Abstract. The eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia in 1815 was one of the most powerful of its kind in recorded history. This contribution addresses climatic responses to it, the post-eruption weather, and its impacts on human life in the Czech Lands. The climatic effects are evaluated in terms of air temperature and precipitation on the basis of long-term homogenised series from the Prague-Klementinum and Brno meteorological stations, and mean Czech series in the short term (1810–1820) and long term (1800–2010). This analysis is complemented by other climatic and environmental data derived from rich documentary evidence. Czech documentary sources make no direct mention of the Tambora eruption, neither do they relate any particular weather phenomena to it, but they record an extremely wet summer for 1815 and an extremely cold summer for 1816 (the "Year Without a Summer") that contributed to bad grain harvests and widespread grain price increases in 1817. Possible reasons for the cold summers in the first decade of the 19th century reflected in the contemporary press included comets, sunspot activity, long-term cooling and finally – as late as 1817 – earthquakes with volcanic eruptions.

scholarly journals Long-term variability of drought indices in the Czech Lands and effects of external forcings and large-scale climate variability modes

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 827-847 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiří Mikšovský ◽  
Rudolf Brázdil ◽  
Miroslav Trnka ◽  
Petr Pišoft
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
External Forcings ◽  
Czech Lands

Abstract. While a considerable number of records document the temporal variability of droughts for central Europe, the understanding of its underlying causes remains limited. In this contribution, time series of three drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index – SPI; Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index – SPEI; Palmer Drought Severity Index – PDSI) are analyzed with regard to mid- to long-term drought variability in the Czech Lands and its potential links to external forcings and internal climate variability modes over the 1501–2006 period. Employing instrumental and proxy-based data characterizing the external climate forcings (solar and volcanic activity, greenhouse gases) in parallel with series representing the activity of selected climate variability modes (El Niño–Southern Oscillation – ENSO; Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation – AMO; Pacific Decadal Oscillation – PDO; North Atlantic Oscillation – NAO), regression and wavelet analyses were deployed to identify and quantify the temporal variability patterns of drought indices and similarity between individual signals. Aside from a strong connection to the NAO, temperatures in the AMO and (particularly) PDO regions were disclosed as one of the possible drivers of inter-decadal variability in the Czech drought regime. Colder and wetter episodes were found to coincide with increased volcanic activity, especially in summer, while no clear signature of solar activity was found. In addition to identification of the links themselves, their temporal stability and structure of their shared periodicities were investigated. The oscillations at periods of approximately 60–100 years were found to be potentially relevant in establishing the teleconnections affecting the long-term variability of central European droughts.

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