scholarly journals Equilibrium simulations of Marine Isotope Stage 3 climate

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuncheng Guo ◽  
Kerim H. Nisancioglu ◽  
Mats Bentsen ◽  
Ingo Bethke ◽  
Zhongshi Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Marine Isotope Stage ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Quasi Equilibrium ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Marine Isotope Stage 3

Abstract. An equilibrium simulation of Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) climate with boundary conditions characteristic of Greenland Interstadial 8 (GI-8; 38 ka BP) is carried out with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). A computationally efficient configuration of the model enables long integrations at relatively high resolution, with the simulations reaching a quasi-equilibrium state after 2500 years. We assess the characteristics of the simulated large-scale atmosphere and ocean circulation, precipitation, ocean hydrography, sea ice distribution, and internal variability. The simulated MIS3 interstadial near surface air temperature is 2.9 °C cooler than the pre-industrial (PI). The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is deeper and intensified (by ~ 13 %). There is a decrease in the volume of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) reaching the Atlantic. However, there is an increase in ventilation of the Southern Ocean, associated with a significant expansion of Antarctic sea ice and intensified brine rejection, invigorating ocean convection. In the central Arctic, sea ice is ~ 2 m thicker, with an expansion of sea ice in the Nordic Seas during winter. Simulated MIS3 inter-annual variability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation are weaker compared to the pre-industrial. Attempts at triggering a non-linear transition to a cold stadial climate state by varying atmospheric CO2 concentrations and Laurentide Ice Sheet height, suggest that the simulated MIS3 interstadial state in the NorESM is relatively stable, thus questioning the potential for unforced abrupt transitions in Greenland climate during the last glacial.

scholarly journals Equilibrium simulations of Marine Isotope Stage 3 climate

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 1133-1151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuncheng Guo ◽  
Kerim H. Nisancioglu ◽  
Mats Bentsen ◽  
Ingo Bethke ◽  
Zhongshi Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Marine Isotope Stage ◽  
Quasi Equilibrium ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Marine Isotope Stage 3

Abstract. An equilibrium simulation of Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) climate with boundary conditions characteristic of Greenland Interstadial 8 (GI-8; 38 kyr BP) is carried out with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). A computationally efficient configuration of the model enables long integrations at relatively high resolution, with the simulations reaching a quasi-equilibrium state after 2500 years. We assess the characteristics of the simulated large-scale atmosphere and ocean circulation, precipitation, ocean hydrography, sea ice distribution, and internal variability. The simulated MIS3 interstadial near-surface air temperature is 2.9 ∘C cooler than the pre-industrial (PI). The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is deeper and intensified by ∼13 %. There is a decrease in the volume of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) reaching the Atlantic. At the same time, there is an increase in ventilation of the Southern Ocean, associated with a significant expansion of Antarctic sea ice and concomitant intensified brine rejection, invigorating ocean convection. In the central Arctic, sea ice is ∼2 m thicker, with an expansion of sea ice in the Nordic Seas during winter. Attempts at triggering a non-linear transition to a cold stadial climate state, by varying atmospheric CO2 concentrations and Laurentide Ice Sheet height, suggest that the simulated MIS3 interstadial state in the NorESM is relatively stable, thus underscoring the role of model dependency, and questioning the existence of unforced abrupt transitions in Greenland climate in the absence of interactive ice sheet–meltwater dynamics.

scholarly journals Large-Scale Atmospheric Warming in Winter and the Arctic Sea Ice Retreat

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (8) ◽  
pp. 2869-2888 ◽  
Author(s):  
Srdjan Dobricic ◽  
Elisabetta Vignati ◽  
Simone Russo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Melting ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract The ongoing shrinkage of the Arctic sea ice cover is likely linked to the global temperature rise, the pronounced warming in the Arctic, and possibly weather anomalies in the midlatitudes. By evaluating independent components of global atmospheric energy anomalies in winters from 1980 to 2015, the study finds the link between the sea ice melting in the Arctic and the combination of only three well-known atmospheric oscillation patterns approximating observed spatial variations of near-surface temperature trends in winter. The three patterns are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Scandinavian blocking (SB), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The first two are directly related to the ongoing sea ice cover shrinkage in the Barents Sea and the hemispheric increase of near-surface temperature. By independent dynamical processes they connect the sea ice melting and related atmospheric perturbations in the Arctic either with the negative phase of the NAO or the negative trend of atmospheric temperatures over the tropical Pacific. The study further shows that the ongoing sea ice melting may often imply the formation of large-scale circulation patterns bringing the recent trend of colder winters in densely populated areas like Europe and North America.

scholarly journals A coupled climate model simulation of Marine Isotope Stage 3 stadial climate

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 649-670 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Brandefelt ◽  
E. Kjellström ◽  
J.-O. Näslund ◽  
G. Strandberg ◽  
A. H. L. Voelker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Marine Isotope Stage ◽  
Quasi Equilibrium ◽  
Mis 3 ◽  
Marine Isotope Stage 3 ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. We present a coupled global climate model (CGCM) simulation, integrated for 1500 yr to quasi-equilibrium, of a stadial (cold period) within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3). The simulated Greenland stadial 12 (GS12; ~44 ka BP) annual global mean surface temperature (Ts) is 5.5 °C lower than in the simulated recent past (RP) climate and 1.3 °C higher than in the simulated Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka BP) climate. The simulated GS12 is evaluated against proxy data and previous modelling studies of MIS3 stadial climate. We show that the simulated MIS 3 climate, and hence conclusions drawn regarding the dynamics of this climate, is highly model-dependent. The main findings are: (i) Proxy sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are higher than simulated SSTs in the central North Atlantic, in contrast to earlier simulations of MIS 3 stadial climate in which proxy SSTs were found to be lower than simulated SST. (ii) The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slows down by 50 % in the GS12 climate as compared to the RP climate. This slowdown is attained without freshwater forcing in the North Atlantic region, a method used in other studies to force an AMOC shutdown. (iii) El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections in mean sea level pressure (MSLP) are significantly modified by GS12 and LGM forcing and boundary conditions. (iv) Both the mean state and variability of the simulated GS12 is dependent on the equilibration. The annual global mean Ts only changes by 0.10 °C from model years 500–599 to the last century of the simulation, indicating that the climate system may be close to equilibrium already after 500 yr of integration. However, significant regional differences between the last century of the simulation and model years 500–599 exist. Further, the difference between simulated and proxy SST is reduced from model years 500–599 to the last century of the simulation. The results of the ENSO variability analysis is also shown to depend on the equilibration.

Sea ice protists in arctic marine sedaDNA records: origins, diversity, and vertical export of DNA from the sea surface to the seafloor 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Harðardóttir ◽  
Connie Lovejoy ◽  
Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz ◽  
Sofia Ribeiro
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Ancient Dna ◽  
Genetic Material ◽  
Amplicon Sequencing ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Gene Copy ◽  
Marine Biodiversity ◽  
Vertical Export

<p>Arctic sea ice is declining at an unprecedented pace as the Arctic Ocean heads towards ice-free summers within the next few decades. Because of the role of sea ice in the Earth System such as ocean circulation and ecosystem functioning, reconstructing its past variability is of great importance providing insight into past climate patterns and future climate scenarios. Today, much of our knowledge of past sea-ice variability derives from a relatively few microfossil and biogeochemical tracers, which have limitations, such as preservation biases and low taxonomic resolution. Marine sedimentary ancient DNA (marine <em>seda</em>DNA) has the potential to capture more of the arctic marine biodiversity compared to other approaches. However, little is known about how well past communities are represented in marine <em>seda</em>DNA. The transport and fate of DNA derived from sea-ice associated organisms, from surface waters to the seafloor and its eventual incorporation into marine sediment records is poorly understood.  Here, we present results from a study applying a combination of methods to examine modern and ancient DNA to material collected along the Northeast Greenland Shelf. We characterized the vertical export of genetic material by amplicon sequencing the hyper-variable V4 region of the 18S rDNA at three water depths, in surface sediments, and in a dated sediment core.  The amplicon sequencing approach, as currently applied, includes some limitations for quantitative reconstructions of past changes such as primer competition, PCR errors, and variation of gene copy numbers across different taxa. For these reasons we quantified amplicons from a single species, the circum-polar sea ice dinoflagellate <em>Polarella glacialis</em> in the marine <em>seda</em>DNA, using digital droplet PCR. The results will increase our understanding on the taphonomy of DNA in sea ice environments, how sedimentation differs among taxonomic groups, and provide indications to potentially useful marine <em>seda</em>DNA-based proxies for climate and environmental reconstructions.</p>

scholarly journals Importance of open-water ice growth and ice concentration evolution: a study based on FESOM-ECHAM6

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 2137-2179
Author(s):  
X. Shi ◽  
G. Lohmann
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Water Ice ◽  
Ice Growth ◽  
Ice Concentration

Abstract. A newly developed global climate model FESOM-ECHAM6 with an unstructured mesh and high resolution is applied to investigate to what degree the area-thickness distribution of new ice formed in open water affects the ice and ocean properties. A sensitivity experiment is performed which reduces the horizontal-to-vertical aspect ratio of open-water ice growth. The resulting decrease in the Arctic winter sea-ice concentration strongly reduces the surface albedo, enhances the ocean heat release to the atmosphere, and increases the sea-ice production. Furthermore, our simulations show a positive feedback mechanism among the Arctic sea ice, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and the surface air temperature in the Arctic, as the sea ice transport affects the freshwater budget in regions of deep water formation. A warming over Europe, Asia and North America, associated with a negative anomaly of Sea Level Pressure (SLP) over the Arctic (positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO)), is also simulated by the model. For the Southern Ocean, the most pronounced change is a warming along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), especially for the Pacific sector. Additionally, a series of sensitivity tests are performed using an idealized 1-D thermodynamic model to further investigate the influence of the open-water ice growth, which reveals similar results in terms of the change of sea ice and ocean temperature. In reality, the distribution of new ice on open water relies on many uncertain parameters, for example, surface albedo, wind speed and ocean currents. Knowledge of the detailed processes is currently too crude for those processes to be implemented realistically into models. Our sensitivity experiments indicate a pronounced uncertainty related to open-water sea ice growth which could significantly affect the climate system.

Evaluating Met Office uncoupled and coupled forecasts during the Iceland Greenland Seas Project field campaign in 2018

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Barrell ◽  
Ian Renfrew ◽  
Steven Abel ◽  
Andrew Elvidge ◽  
John King
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Rapid Change ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Field Campaign ◽  
Important Region

<div> <p>During a cold-air outbreak (CAO) a cold polar airmass flows from the frozen land or ice surface, over the marginal ice zone (MIZ), then out over the comparatively warm open ocean. This constitutes a dramatic change in surface temperature, roughness and moisture availability, typically causing rapid change in the atmospheric boundary layer. Consequently, CAOs are associated with a range of severe mesoscale weather phenomena and accurate forecasting is crucial. Over the Nordic Seas CAOs also play a vital role in global ocean circulation, causing densification and sinking of ocean waters that form the headwaters of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. </p> </div><div> <p>To tackle the lack of observations during wintertime CAOs and improve scientific understanding in this important region, the Iceland Greenland Seas Project (IGP) undertook an extensive field campaign during February and March 2018. Aiming to characterise the atmospheric forcing and the ocean response, particularly in and around the MIZ, the IGP made coordinated ocean-atmosphere measurements, involving a research vessel, a research aircraft, a meteorological buoy, moorings, sea gliders and floats.  </p> </div><div> <p>The work presented here employs these novel observational data to evaluate output from the UK Met Office global operational forecasting system and from a pre-operational coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere system. The Met Office aim to transition to a coupled operational forecast in the coming years, thus verification of model versions in development is essential. Results show that this coupled model’s sea ice is generally more accurate than a persistent field. However, it can also suffer from cold-biased sea surface temperatures around the MIZ, which influences the modelled near-surface meteorology. Both these effects demonstrate the crucial importance of accurate sea ice simulation in coupled model forecasting in the high latitudes. Hence, an ice edge metric is then used to quantify the accuracy of the coupled model MIZ edge at two ocean grid resolutions. </p> </div>

Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Based on Quantile Regression and the Teleconnection with Large-Scale Climate Patterns

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (10) ◽  
pp. 4009-4025
Author(s):  
Shuyu Zhang ◽  
Thian Yew Gan ◽  
Andrew B. G. Bush
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Climate Patterns

AbstractUnder global warming, Arctic sea ice has declined significantly in recent decades, with years of extremely low sea ice occurring more frequently. Recent studies suggest that teleconnections with large-scale climate patterns could induce the observed extreme sea ice loss. In this study, a probabilistic analysis of Arctic sea ice was conducted using quantile regression analysis with covariates, including time and climate indices. From temporal trends at quantile levels from 0.01 to 0.99, Arctic sea ice shows statistically significant decreases over all quantile levels, although of different magnitudes at different quantiles. At the representative extreme quantile levels of the 5th and 95th percentiles, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific–North American pattern (PNA) have more significant influence on Arctic sea ice than El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Positive AO as well as positive NAO contribute to low winter sea ice, and a positive PNA contributes to low summer Arctic sea ice. If, in addition to these conditions, there is concurrently positive AMO and PDO, the sea ice decrease is amplified. Teleconnections between Arctic sea ice and the climate patterns were demonstrated through a composite analysis of the climate variables. The anomalously strong anticyclonic circulation during the years of positive AO, NAO, and PNA promotes more sea ice export through Fram Strait, resulting in excessive sea ice loss. The probabilistic analyses of the teleconnections between the Arctic sea ice and climate patterns confirm the crucial role that the climate patterns and their combinations play in overall sea ice reduction, but particularly for the low and high quantiles of sea ice concentration.

scholarly journals The Impact of Regional Arctic Sea Ice Loss on Atmospheric Circulation and the NAO

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 889-902 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasmus A. Pedersen ◽  
Ivana Cvijanovic ◽  
Peter L. Langen ◽  
Bo M. Vinther
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sea Ice Reduction

Abstract Reduction of the Arctic sea ice cover can affect the atmospheric circulation and thus impact the climate beyond the Arctic. The atmospheric response may, however, vary with the geographical location of sea ice loss. The atmospheric sensitivity to the location of sea ice loss is studied using a general circulation model in a configuration that allows combination of a prescribed sea ice cover and an active mixed layer ocean. This hybrid setup makes it possible to simulate the isolated impact of sea ice loss and provides a more complete response compared to experiments with fixed sea surface temperatures. Three investigated sea ice scenarios with ice loss in different regions all exhibit substantial near-surface warming, which peaks over the area of ice loss. The maximum warming is found during winter, delayed compared to the maximum sea ice reduction. The wintertime response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation shows a nonuniform sensitivity to the location of sea ice reduction. While all three scenarios exhibit decreased zonal winds related to high-latitude geopotential height increases, the magnitudes and locations of the anomalies vary between the simulations. Investigation of the North Atlantic Oscillation reveals a high sensitivity to the location of the ice loss. The northern center of action exhibits clear shifts in response to the different sea ice reductions. Sea ice loss in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic cause westward and eastward shifts, respectively.

scholarly journals Relationships between Arctic Sea Ice and Clouds during Autumn

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (18) ◽  
pp. 4799-4810 ◽  
Author(s):  
Axel J. Schweiger ◽  
Ron W. Lindsay ◽  
Steve Vavrus ◽  
Jennifer A. Francis
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Cloud Amount ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Simultaneous Increase ◽  
Temperature Structure ◽  
Infrared Observation ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Subsequent Decrease

Abstract The connection between sea ice variability and cloud cover over the Arctic seas during autumn is investigated by analyzing the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) products and the Television and Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) Polar Pathfinder satellite datasets. It is found that cloud cover variability near the sea ice margins is strongly linked to sea ice variability. Sea ice retreat is linked to a decrease in low-level cloud amount and a simultaneous increase in midlevel clouds. This pattern is apparent in both data sources. Changes in cloud cover can be explained by changes in the atmospheric temperature structure and an increase in near-surface temperatures resulting from the removal of sea ice. The subsequent decrease in static stability and deepening of the atmospheric boundary layer apparently contribute to the rise in cloud level. The radiative effect of this change is relatively small, as the direct radiative effects of cloud cover changes are compensated for by changes in the temperature and humidity profiles associated with varying ice conditions.

Sea Ice Enhancements to Polar WRF*

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (6) ◽  
pp. 2363-2385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith M. Hines ◽  
David H. Bromwich ◽  
Lesheng Bai ◽  
Cecilia M. Bitz ◽  
Jordan G. Powers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Snow Depth ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The Arctic Ocean

Abstract The Polar Weather Research and Forecasting Model (Polar WRF), a polar-optimized version of the WRF Model, is developed and made available to the community by Ohio State University’s Polar Meteorology Group (PMG) as a code supplement to the WRF release from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). While annual NCAR official releases contain polar modifications, the PMG provides very recent updates to users. PMG supplement versions up to WRF version 3.4 include modified Noah land surface model sea ice representation, allowing the specification of variable sea ice thickness and snow depth over sea ice rather than the default 3-m thickness and 0.05-m snow depth. Starting with WRF V3.5, these options are implemented by NCAR into the standard WRF release. Gridded distributions of Arctic ice thickness and snow depth over sea ice have recently become available. Their impacts are tested with PMG’s WRF V3.5-based Polar WRF in two case studies. First, 20-km-resolution model results for January 1998 are compared with observations during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean project. Polar WRF using analyzed thickness and snow depth fields appears to simulate January 1998 slightly better than WRF without polar settings selected. Sensitivity tests show that the simulated impacts of realistic variability in sea ice thickness and snow depth on near-surface temperature is several degrees. The 40-km resolution simulations of a second case study covering Europe and the Arctic Ocean demonstrate remote impacts of Arctic sea ice thickness on midlatitude synoptic meteorology that develop within 2 weeks during a winter 2012 blocking event.

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