The decadal climate prediction skill with focus on the North Atlantic region

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuting Yang ◽  
Bo Christiansen
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Degree ◽  
Climate Prediction ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
The North ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Decadal Climate ◽  
Decadal Climate Prediction

<p>The skill of the decadal climate prediction is analyzed based on recent ensemble experiments from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 decadal climate prediction projects (DCPP) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (LENS) Project. The experiments are initialized every year at November 1 for the period of 1960-2005 in the CMIP5 DCPP experiments and 1960-2016 for the CMIP6 DCPP models as well as the CESM LENS decadal prediction. The CMIP5/6 ensemble has 10 members for each model and the CESM ensemble has 40 members. For the considered models un-initialized (historical) ensembles with the same forcings exist. The advantage of initialization is analyzed by comparing these two sets of experiments.<br><br>We find that the models agree that for lead-times between 4-10 years little effect of initialization is found except in the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre region (NASPG). This well-known result is found for all the models and is robust to temporal and spatial smoothing. In the sub-polar gyre region the ensemble mean of the forecast explains 30-40 % more of the observed variance than the ensemble mean of the historical non-initialized experiments even for lead-times of 10 years.<br><br>However, the skill in the NASPG seems to a large degree to be related to the shift towards warmer temperatures around 1996. Weak or no skill is found when the sub-periods before and after 1996 are considered. We further analyze the characteristics of other climate indicators than surface temperature as well as the NAO to understand the cause and implication of the prediction skill.</p>

scholarly journals Improved decadal climate prediction in the North Atlantic using EnOI-assimilated initial condition

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (16) ◽  
pp. 1142-1147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Wei ◽  
Qingquan Li ◽  
Xiaoge Xin ◽  
Wei Zhou ◽  
Zhenyu Han ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Prediction ◽  
Initial Condition ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Decadal Climate ◽  
Decadal Climate Prediction

Exploring North Atlantic and North Pacific Decadal Climate Prediction Using Self-Organizing Maps

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinxue Gu ◽  
Melissa Gervais
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Climate Prediction ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
The North ◽  
Decadal Climate ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
Decadal Climate Prediction ◽  
Self Organizing

<p>Decadal climate prediction can provide invaluable information for decisions made by government agencies and industry. Modes of internal variability of the ocean play an important role in determining the climate on decadal time scales. This study explores the possibility of using self-organizing maps (SOMs) to identify decadal climate variability with the ultimate goal of improving decadal climate prediction. SOM is applied to 11-year running mean winter Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the North Pacific and North Atlantic within the Community Earth System Model 1850 pre-industrial simulation to identify patterns of internal variability in SSTs. Transition probability tables are calculated to identify preferred paths through the SOM with time.  Results show both persistence and preferred evolutions of SST depending on the initial SST pattern.  This method also provides a measure of the predictability of these SST patterns, with the North Atlantic being predictable at longer lead times than the North Pacific. In addition, decadal SST predictions using persistence and lagged transition probabilities are conducted.</p>

scholarly journals Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches

2014 ◽  
Vol 95 (2) ◽  
pp. 243-267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald A. Meehl ◽  
Lisa Goddard ◽  
George Boer ◽  
Robert Burgman ◽  
Grant Branstator ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Climate Prediction ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
The North ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Decadal Climate ◽  
Decadal Climate Prediction

This paper provides an update on research in the relatively new and fast-moving field of decadal climate prediction, and addresses the use of decadal climate predictions not only for potential users of such information but also for improving our understanding of processes in the climate system. External forcing influences the predictions throughout, but their contributions to predictive skill become dominant after most of the improved skill from initialization with observations vanishes after about 6–9 years. Recent multimodel results suggest that there is relatively more decadal predictive skill in the North Atlantic, western Pacific, and Indian Oceans than in other regions of the world oceans. Aspects of decadal variability of SSTs, like the mid-1970s shift in the Pacific, the mid-1990s shift in the northern North Atlantic and western Pacific, and the early-2000s hiatus, are better represented in initialized hindcasts compared to uninitialized simulations. There is evidence of higher skill in initialized multimodel ensemble decadal hindcasts than in single model results, with multimodel initialized predictions for near-term climate showing somewhat less global warming than uninitialized simulations. Some decadal hindcasts have shown statistically reliable predictions of surface temperature over various land and ocean regions for lead times of up to 6–9 years, but this needs to be investigated in a wider set of models. As in the early days of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction, improvements to models will reduce the need for bias adjustment, and increase the reliability, and thus usefulness, of decadal climate predictions in the future.

scholarly journals The Impact of North Atlantic–Arctic Multidecadal Variability on Northern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (21) ◽  
pp. 5668-5677 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir A. Semenov ◽  
Mojib Latif ◽  
Dietmar Dommenget ◽  
Noel S. Keenlyside ◽  
Alexander Strehz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
Hemisphere Surface ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Decadal Climate

Abstract The twentieth-century Northern Hemisphere surface climate exhibits a long-term warming trend largely caused by anthropogenic forcing, with natural decadal climate variability superimposed on it. This study addresses the possible origin and strength of internal decadal climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the recent decades. The authors present results from a set of climate model simulations that suggest natural internal multidecadal climate variability in the North Atlantic–Arctic sector could have considerably contributed to the Northern Hemisphere surface warming since 1980. Although covering only a few percent of the earth’s surface, the Arctic may have provided the largest share in this. It is hypothesized that a stronger meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic and the associated increase in northward heat transport enhanced the heat loss from the ocean to the atmosphere in the North Atlantic region and especially in the North Atlantic portion of the Arctic because of anomalously strong sea ice melt. The model results stress the potential importance of natural internal multidecadal variability originating in the North Atlantic–Arctic sector in generating interdecadal climate changes, not only on a regional scale, but also possibly on a hemispheric and even a global scale.

scholarly journals Global Assessment of Atmospheric River Prediction Skill

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 409-426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. DeFlorio ◽  
Duane E. Waliser ◽  
Bin Guan ◽  
David A. Lavers ◽  
F. Martin Ralph ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Global Assessment ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Atmospheric River ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are global phenomena that transport water vapor horizontally and are associated with hydrological extremes. In this study, the Atmospheric River Skill (ATRISK) algorithm is introduced, which quantifies AR prediction skill in an object-based framework using Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Project global hindcast data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. The dependence of AR forecast skill is globally characterized by season, lead time, and distance between observed and forecasted ARs. Mean values of daily AR prediction skill saturate around 7–10 days, and seasonal variations are highest over the Northern Hemispheric ocean basins, where AR prediction skill increases by 15%–20% at a 7-day lead during boreal winter relative to boreal summer. AR hit and false alarm rates are explicitly considered using relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves. This analysis reveals that AR forecast utility increases at 10-day lead over the North Pacific/western U.S. region during positive El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions and at 7- and 10-day leads over the North Atlantic/U.K. region during negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) conditions and decreases at a 10-day lead over the North Pacific/western U.S. region during negative Pacific–North America (PNA) teleconnection conditions. Exceptionally large increases in AR forecast utility are found over the North Pacific/western United States at a 10-day lead during El Niño + positive PNA conditions and over the North Atlantic/United Kingdom at a 7-day lead during La Niña + negative PNA conditions. These results represent the first global assessment of AR prediction skill and highlight climate variability conditions that modulate regional AR forecast skill.

scholarly journals Oscillatory Climate Modes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Their Synchronization with the North Atlantic Oscillation

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (15) ◽  
pp. 4060-4079 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yizhak Feliks ◽  
Michael Ghil ◽  
Andrew W. Robertson
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Singular Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
The North ◽  
Ethiopian Plateau ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Decadal Climate ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract Oscillatory climatic modes over the North Atlantic, Ethiopian Plateau, and eastern Mediterranean were examined in instrumental and proxy records from these regions. Aside from the well-known North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the Nile River water-level records, the authors study for the first time an instrumental rainfall record from Jerusalem and a tree-ring record from the Golan Heights. The teleconnections between the regions were studied in terms of synchronization of chaotic oscillators. Standard methods for studying synchronization among such oscillators are modified by combining them with advanced spectral methods, including singular spectrum analysis. The resulting cross-spectral analysis quantifies the strength of the coupling together with the degree of synchronization. A prominent oscillatory mode with a 7–8-yr period is present in all the climatic indices studied here and is completely synchronized with the North Atlantic Oscillation. An energy analysis of the synchronization raises the possibility that this mode originates in the North Atlantic. Evidence is discussed for this mode being induced by the 7–8-yr oscillation in the position of the Gulf Stream front. A mechanism for the teleconnections between the North Atlantic, Ethiopian Plateau, and eastern Mediterranean is proposed, and implications for interannual-to-decadal climate prediction are discussed.

scholarly journals The Sun's Role for Decadal Climate Predictability in the North Atlantic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annika Drews ◽  
Wenjuan Huo ◽  
Katja Matthes ◽  
Kunihiko Kodera ◽  
Tim Kruschke
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Climate Predictability ◽  
The North ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Decadal Climate Predictability ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Decadal Climate ◽  
Solar Influence

Abstract. Despite several studies on decadal-scale solar influence on climate, a systematic detection of solar-induced signals at the surface and the Sun's contribution to decadal climate predictability is still missing. Here, we disentangle the solar-cycle-induced climate response from internal variability and from other external forcings such as greenhouse gases. We utilize two 10-member ensemble simulations with a state-of-the-art chemistry climate model, to date a unique data set in chemistry climate modelling. We quantify the potential predictability related to the solar cycle and demonstrate that the detectability of the solar influence on surface climate depends on the magnitude of the solar cycle. Further, we show that a strong solar cycle forcing organizes and synchronizes the decadal-scale component of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the dominant mode of climate variability in the North Atlantic region.

scholarly journals Improvement in the decadal prediction skill of the northern hemisphere extra-tropical winter circulation through increased model resolution

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mareike Schuster ◽  
Jens Grieger ◽  
Andy Richling ◽  
Thomas Schartner ◽  
Sebastian Illing ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Decadal Prediction ◽  
North Atlantic Current ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Socio Economic Impact

Abstract. In this study the latest version of the MiKlip decadal hindcast system is analyzed and the effect of different horizontal and vertical resolutions on the prediction skill of the northern hemisphere extra-tropical atmospheric circulation is assessed. Four metrics – the stormtrack, blocking frequencies, cyclone frequencies and windstorm frequencies – are analyzed with respect to the anomaly correlation of their winter averages. The model bias and hindcast skill are evaluated in both, a lower resolution version (LR, atm: T63L47, ocean: 1.5° L40) and a higher resolution version (HR, atm: T127L95, ocean: 0.4° L40) of the MPI-ESM system, for the lead years 2–5 using initializations between 1978 and 2012. While the LR version shows common shortcomings of lower resolution climate models, e.g. a too zonal stormtrack and a negative bias of blocking frequencies over the eastern North Atlantic and Europe, the HR version works against these biases. As a result, a functional chain of significantly improved decadal prediction skill between all four metrics is found with the increase of the spatial resolution. While the stormtrack, is significantly improved primarily over the main source region of synoptic activity – the North Atlantic Current, the other extra-tropical measures experience a significant improvement downstream thereof. Thus, the skill of the cyclone frequencies is significantly improved over the central North Atlantic and Northern Europe, the skill of the blocking frequencies is significantly improved over the Mediterranean, Scandinavia and Eastern Europe and the skill of the windstorms is significantly improved over Newfoundland and Central Europe. Not only is the skill improved with the increase in resolution, but the HR system itself exhibits significant skill over large areas of the North Atlantic and European sector for all four circulation metrics. These results are particularly promising regarding the high socio-economic impact of European winter windstorms and blocking situations.

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