Hydrological response to land use scenarios under climate change. Adaptation measures for an agricultural basin: Rapel river basin in central Chile.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
María José González Molina ◽  
Haydee Ximena Vargas Mesa ◽  
Nicolás Vásquez Placencia
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Hydrological Response ◽  
Central Chile ◽  
Land Use Scenarios ◽  
The Future

<p>Faced to reduced future water availability, associated with climate change variability and population growth, it becomes important to study the hydrological response under various modifications of crop patterns currently present in an agricultural basin in Chile. The focus of this research is to improve the future water resources management knowing the behavior of the hydrological cycle under meteorological forcings during the historical period 1985 to 2015.</p><p>We selected the Rapel River basin, in Central Chile, with a relevant agricultural activity and high water consumption in the study area.</p><p>VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) hydrological model, was calibrated considering base land use and historical records determined with the product CR2Met (www.cr2.cl/datos-productos-grillados/) for a grid with cells of 5 km by 5 km. For the near future (2030-2060) we proposed agricultural land use scenarios, considering a set of 40 crops that are representative of the area. The variation of the future forcings was considered according to the climate change scenario RCP 8.5 for four Global Climate Models (CCSM4, CSIRO, IPSAL, and MIROC).</p><p>Results show the variation in evapotranspiration demand and runoff, according to crop class and geographical ubication. An important variation of both flows is revealed, which is mainly related to the class of crop.  For this reason, the selection of crops determines a specific hydrological response, so the study of the change in land use is crucial. Based on the hydrologic response of each class of crop over the basin,  crop arrays were obtained and patterns are recommended for future scenarios. The arrays consider the optimal location of the crop, which reduces evapotranspiration demand and increases runoff. Also, changes in the percentage of the cultivated area of each crop class are recommended.</p>

A framework for quantifying the impacts of future climate and land use/cover changes on runoff in the Han River basin, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Tian ◽  
Shenglian Guo ◽  
Chong-Yu Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Base Period ◽  
Han River ◽  
The Future ◽  
Han River Basin

<p>As a link between the atmosphere and the earth’s surface, the hydrological cycle is impacted by both climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC). For most basins around the world, the co-variation of climate change and LUCC will continue in the future, which highlights the significance to explore the temporal-spatial distribution and variation mechanism of runoff and to improve our ability in water resources planning and management. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to propose a framework to examine the response of runoff to climate change and LUCC under different future scenarios. Firstly, the future climate scenarios under BCC-CSM1.1 and BNU-ESM are both downscaled and bias-corrected by the Daily bias correction (DBC) method, meanwhile, the future LUCC scenarios are predicted by the Cellular Automaton-Markov (CA-Markov) model according to the integrated basin plans of future land use. Then, based on the baseline scenario S0 (meteorological data from 1966 to 2005 and current situation LUCC2010), the following three scenarios are set with different combinations of future climate land-use situations, i.e., S1: only climate change scenario; S2: only the LUCC scenario; S3: climate and LUCC co-variation scenario. Lastly, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to simulate the hydrological process and quantify the impacts of climate change and LUCC on the runoff yield. The proposed framework is applied to the Han River basin in China. Results show that: (1) compared with the base period (1966-2005), the annual rainfall, daily maximum, and minimum air temperature during 2021-2060 will have an increase of 4.0%, 1.8℃, 1.6℃ in RCP4.5 while 3.7%, 2.5℃, 2.3℃ in RCP8.5, respectively; (2) from 2010 to 2050, the forest land and construction land in the Han River basin will have an increase of 2.8% and 1.2%, respectively, while that of farmland and grassland will have a decrease of 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively; (3) comparing with the single climate change or LUCC scenario, the co-variation scenario possesses the largest uncertainty in runoff projection. Under the two concentration paths, there is a consistent upward change in future runoff (2021-2060) of the studied basin compared with that in the base period, furthermore, the increase rate in RCP4.5 (+5.10%) is higher than that in RCP8.5 (+2.67%). The results of this study provide a useful reference and help for water resources and land use management in the Han River basin.</p>

scholarly journals Assessment of Climate Change Impact on the Hydrology of the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Massouda Sidiqi ◽  
Sangam Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Arid Regions ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Semi Arid ◽  
Kabul River

Climate change and variability affect the availability and management of water resources and the hydrological cycle, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. This research was conducted to analyse the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan by using the outputs of three General Circulation Models under two representative concentration pathway scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future climate data (precipitation and temperature) obtained from the climate models were bias-corrected using the delta change approach. Maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation were predicted for the three future periods: 2020s (2010–2039), 2050s (2040–2069), and 2080s (2070–2099) against the baseline period 1961–1980. The o o o mean annual temperature in the basin is projected to increase by 1.8 C, 3.5 C, and 4.8 C in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. The projected annual precipitation is expected to decline by approximately 53 to 65% for the whole river basin under both scenarios in the future period. The well-calibrated and validated Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the future streamflow in the basin. The mean annual streamflow is projected to increase by 50 to 120% in the future. This study provides valuable information for guiding future water resource management in the Kabul River Basin and other arid and semi-arid regions of Afghanistan.

scholarly journals Identifying the runoff variation in the Naryn River Basin under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. S. Wu ◽  
Y. P. Li ◽  
J. Sun ◽  
P. P. Gao ◽  
G. H. Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Runoff Variation ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract A multiple scenario-based ensemble prediction (MSEP) method is developed for exploring the impacts of climate and land-use changes on runoff in the Naryn River Basin. MSEP incorporates multiple global climate models, Cellular Automata–Markov and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) within a general framework. MSEP can simultaneously analyze the effects of climate and land-use changes on runoff, as well as provide multiple climate and land-use scenarios to reflect the associated uncertainties in runoff simulation and prediction. Totally 96 scenarios are considered to analyze the trend and range of future runoff. Ensemble prediction results reveal that (i) climate change plays a leading role in runoff variation; (ii) compared to the baseline values, peak flow would increase 36.6% and low flow would reduce 36.8% by the 2080s, which would result in flooding and drought risks in the future and (iii) every additional hectare of arable land would increase the water deficit by an average of 10.9 × 103 m3, implying that the arable land should be carefully expanded in the future. Results suggest that, to mitigate the impact of climate change, the rational control of arable land and the active promotion of irrigation efficiency are beneficial for water resources management and ecological environmental recovery.

Assessing the impact of climate and land-use change on the hydrological response of the upper Betwa River basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amit Kumar ◽  
Kumar Gaurav
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Central India ◽  
Hydrological Response ◽  
Open Land ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

<p>Climate and land-use change have altered the regional hydrological cycle. As a result, the mean summer monsoon rainfall has decreased by 10 % over central India during 1950-2015. This study evaluates the combined effect of climate and land-use change on the hydrological response of the upper Betwa River basin in Central India. We use Landsat satellite images from 1990 to 2018 to compute the changes in various land-use types; waterbody, built-up, forest, agriculture, and open land. In the past two decades, we found that the water body, built-up, and cropland have increased by 63 %, 65 %, and 3 %, respectively. However, forest and open land have decreased by 16 % and 23 %. Further, we observed a significant increase in annual average temperature and a decrease in the mean rainfall in the study area during 1980-2018.</p><p>We then coupled the land-use change with weather parameters (precipitation, temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, and relative humidity) and setup the SWAT (Soil and water assessment tool) model to simulate the hydrological responses in the catchment. We have run this model for two different time steps, 1980-2000 and 1998-2018, using the land-use of 1990 and 2018. Calibration and validation are performed for (1991-1994, 2000-2004) and (1995-1998, 2005-2008) respectively using SUFI-2 method. Our results show that the surface runoff and percolation decreased by -21 and -9 %, whereas evapotranspiration increased by 3 % in the upper Betwa River basin during 2001-2018. A decrease in rainfall, runoff, and percolation will have considerable implications on regional water security.</p>

scholarly journals Hydrological responses of a watershed to historical land use evolution and future land use scenarios under climate change conditions

2007 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 1337-1367 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Quilbé ◽  
A. N. Rousseau ◽  
J.-S. Moquet ◽  
S. Savary ◽  
S. Ricard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Hydrological Responses ◽  
Land Use Scenario ◽  
Land Use Scenarios ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Agriculture Intensification ◽  
In The Beginning

Abstract. Watershed runoff is closely related to land use, but this influence is difficult to quantify. This study focused on the Chaudière River watershed (Québec, Canada) and had two objectives: (i) to quantify the influence of historical agricultural land use evolution on watershed runoff; and (ii) to assess the effect of future land use evolution scenarios under climate change conditions (CC). To achieve this, we used the integrated modeling system GIBSI. Past land use evolution was constructed using satellite images that were integrated into GIBSI. The general trend was an increase of agricultural land in the 1980s, a slight decrease in the beginning of the 1990s and a steady state over the last ten years. Simulations based on thirty years of daily meteorological series showed strong correlations between land use evolution and water discharge at the watershed outlet, especially for summer and fall seasons. For the prospective approach, we first assessed the effect of CC and then defined two opposite land use evolution scenarios for the horizon 2025 based on two different trends: agriculture intensification or sustainable development. Simulation results showed that CC would induce an increase of water discharge during winter and a decrease the rest of the year, while land use scenarios would have a more drastic effect, agriculture intensification counterbalancing the effect of CC during summer and fall. Due to the large uncertainty linked to CC simulations, it is difficult to conclude that one land use scenario provides a better adaptation to CC than another, but this study shows that land use is a key factor that has to be taken into account when predicting potential future hydrological responses of a watershed.

scholarly journals The potential for land use change to reduce flood risk in mid-sized catchments in the Myjava region of Slovakia

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Rončák ◽  
Evelin Lisovszki ◽  
Ján Szolgay ◽  
Kamila Hlavčová ◽  
Silvia Kohnová ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Land Use Management ◽  
Land Use Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe effects of land use management practices on surface runoff are evident on a local scale, but evidence of their impact on the scale of a watershed is limited. This study focuses on an analysis of the impact of land use changes on the flood regime in the Myjava River basin, which is located in Western Slovakia. The Myjava River basin has an area of 641.32 km2and is typified by the formation of fast runoff processes, intensive soil erosion, and muddy floods. The main factors responsible for these problems with flooding and soil erosion are the basin’s location, geology, pedology, agricultural land use, and cropping practices. The GIS-based, spatially distributed WetSpa rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate mean daily discharges in the outlet of the basin as well as the individual components of the water balance. The model was calibrated based on the period between 1997 and 2012 with outstanding results (an NS coefficient of 0.702). Various components of runoff (e.g., surface, interflow and groundwater) and several elements of the hydrological balance (evapotranspiration and soil moisture) were simulated under various land use scenarios. Six land use scenarios (‘crop’, ‘grass’, ‘forest’, ‘slope’, ‘elevation’ and ‘optimal’) were developed. The first three scenarios exhibited the ability of the WetSpa model to simulate runoff under changed land use conditions and enabled a better adjustment of the land use parameters of the model. Three other “more realistic” land use scenarios, which were based on the distribution of land use classes (arable land, grass and forest) regarding permissible slopes in the catchment, confirmed the possibility of reducing surface runoff and maximum discharges with applicable changes in land use and land management. These scenarios represent practical, realistic and realizable land use management solutions and they could be economically implemented to mitigate soil erosion processes and enhance the flood protection measures in the Myjava River basin.

scholarly journals Hydrological responses of a watershed to historical land use evolution and future land use scenarios under climate change conditions

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Quilbé ◽  
A. N. Rousseau ◽  
J.-S. Moquet ◽  
S. Savary ◽  
S. Ricard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Hydrological Responses ◽  
Land Use Scenario ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Land Use Scenarios ◽  
Key Factor

Abstract. Watershed runoff is closely related to land use but this influence is difficult to quantify. This study focused on the Chaudière River watershed (Québec, Canada) and had two objectives: (i) to quantify the influence of historical agricultural land use evolution on watershed runoff; and (ii) to assess the effect of future land use evolution scenarios under climate change conditions (CC). To achieve this, we used the integrated modeling system GIBSI. Past land use evolution was constructed using satellite images that were integrated into GIBSI. The general trend was an increase of agricultural land in the 80's, a slight decrease in the beginning of the 90's and a steady state over the last ten years. Simulations showed strong correlations between land use evolution and water discharge at the watershed outlet. For the prospective approach, we first assessed the effect of CC and then defined two opposite land use evolution scenarios for the horizon 2025 based on two different trends: agriculture intensification and sustainable development. Simulations led to a wide range of results depending on the climatologic models and gas emission scenarios considered, varying from a decrease to an increase of annual and monthly water discharge. In this context, the two land use scenarios induced opposite effects on water discharge and low flow sequences, especially during the growing season. However, due to the large uncertainty linked to CC simulations, it is difficult to conclude that one land use scenario provides a better adaptation to CC than another. Nevertheless, this study shows that land use is a key factor that has to be taken into account when predicting potential future hydrological responses of a watershed.

Climate Change and Land Use Change of Rural Households in The Red River Delta, Vietnam

2013 ◽  
pp. 79-94
Author(s):  
Ngoc Luu Bich
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Rural Households ◽  
River Delta ◽  
Red River ◽  
Red River Delta ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Main Production ◽  
Farming Households

Climate change (CC) and its impacts on the socio-economy and the development of communities has become an issue causing very special concern. The rise in global temperatures, in sea levels, extreme weather phenomena, and salinization have occurred more and more and have directly influenced the livelihoods of rural households in the Red River Delta – one of the two regions projected to suffer strongly from climate change in Vietnam. For farming households in this region, the major and traditional livelihoods are based on main production materials as agricultural land, or aquacultural water surface Changes in the land use of rural households in the Red River Delta during recent times was influenced strongly by the Renovation policy in agriculture as well as the process of industrialization and modernization in the country. Climate change over the past 5 years (2005-2011) has started influencing household land use with the concrete manifestations being the reduction of the area cultivated and the changing of the purpose of land use.

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