Study on the relationship between improved short-term precipitation forecast and insurance data for risk evaluation in Southern China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue Zheng ◽  
Ziye Zhou ◽  
Cong Fang ◽  
Jiaxi Liang ◽  
Boyang Ren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Radar Images ◽  
Insurance Data

<p>        Heavy rainfall is one of the most frequent and severe weather hazards in the world which becomeone of the hugest natural risks.  It has been found that during the flood season in South China, high intensive precipitation occurs very frequently due to the impact of east Asian monsoon.  An unexpected and unusual extreme precipitation event could lead to millions or billions worth of damage, wash out vehicles and houses, destroy agricultural fields, and threat people’s lives.  Determining the linkage between heavy rainfall causes, critical meteorological condition, and impacts can make it easier to classify risk level.  However, due to the insufficiencies of quantitative heavy rainfall related property damages, and low efficient precipitation forecast, the risk evaluation could not be well determined.  Therefore, we employed an improved short-term precipitation forecast based on ensemble deep learning algorithms that can provide more accurate prediction, and apply  25 years of insurance data to aid as proxy for the evaluation of short-term heavy rainfall risks, aiming to trigger in-time precautions and reduce losses. </p><p>       The improved short-term precipitation forecast is built based on combination of scale-invariant feature transform (SIFT) algorithm and ensemble model including convolutional neural network (CNN), gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), and neural network.  The main dataset used includes radar images and station observed precipitation.  The past 1.5 hour radar reflectivity images are measured at 15 times with an interval of 6 minutes, and in 4 different heights from 0.5 km to 3.5 km with an interval of 1 km.  The hourly site precipitation is obtained from ground meteorology stations.  The SIFT is used to calculate cloud trajectory velocity, and the CNN is implemented with features including pinpoint local radar images, spatial-temporal descriptions of the cloud movement and the global description of the cloud pattern.  Weights are assigned to the ensemble model to compute the following 2-3 hours forecasting results.  Additionally, the insurance data include more than 50 thousand records provided on a geography coordinate level for the last 25 years. </p><p>       Result shows that the insurance data have a strong correlation with short-term precipitation.  It also indicates that our proposed model of short-term precipitation forecast outperforms only-deep learning-based and traditional optical flow-based methods.  The insurance data could provide a good proxy for describing heavy rainfall damage and to aid to explore the causes and impacts.  This study would greatly assist policy makers, civil protection agencies, and insurance companies to improve emergency systems and response mechanisms.</p>

scholarly journals Multiple Pedestrians and Vehicles Tracking in Aerial Imagery Using a Convolutional Neural Network

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 1953
Author(s):  
Seyed Majid Azimi ◽  
Maximilian Kraus ◽  
Reza Bahmanyar ◽  
Peter Reinartz
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Convolutional Neural Network ◽  
Object Tracking ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Aerial Imagery ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

In this paper, we address various challenges in multi-pedestrian and vehicle tracking in high-resolution aerial imagery by intensive evaluation of a number of traditional and Deep Learning based Single- and Multi-Object Tracking methods. We also describe our proposed Deep Learning based Multi-Object Tracking method AerialMPTNet that fuses appearance, temporal, and graphical information using a Siamese Neural Network, a Long Short-Term Memory, and a Graph Convolutional Neural Network module for more accurate and stable tracking. Moreover, we investigate the influence of the Squeeze-and-Excitation layers and Online Hard Example Mining on the performance of AerialMPTNet. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to use these two for regression-based Multi-Object Tracking. Additionally, we studied and compared the L1 and Huber loss functions. In our experiments, we extensively evaluate AerialMPTNet on three aerial Multi-Object Tracking datasets, namely AerialMPT and KIT AIS pedestrian and vehicle datasets. Qualitative and quantitative results show that AerialMPTNet outperforms all previous methods for the pedestrian datasets and achieves competitive results for the vehicle dataset. In addition, Long Short-Term Memory and Graph Convolutional Neural Network modules enhance the tracking performance. Moreover, using Squeeze-and-Excitation and Online Hard Example Mining significantly helps for some cases while degrades the results for other cases. In addition, according to the results, L1 yields better results with respect to Huber loss for most of the scenarios. The presented results provide a deep insight into challenges and opportunities of the aerial Multi-Object Tracking domain, paving the way for future research.

scholarly journals An Ensemble Energy Consumption Forecasting Model Based on Spatial-Temporal Clustering Analysis in Residential Buildings

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3020
Author(s):  
Anam-Nawaz Khan ◽  
Naeem Iqbal ◽  
Atif Rizwan ◽  
Rashid Ahmad ◽  
Do-Hyeun Kim
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Floor Level ◽  
Consumption Data

Due to the availability of smart metering infrastructure, high-resolution electric consumption data is readily available to study the dynamics of residential electric consumption at finely resolved spatial and temporal scales. Analyzing the electric consumption data enables the policymakers and building owners to understand consumer’s demand-consumption behaviors. Furthermore, analysis and accurate forecasting of electric consumption are substantial for consumer involvement in time-of-use tariffs, critical peak pricing, and consumer-specific demand response initiatives. Alongside its vast economic and sustainability implications, such as energy wastage and decarbonization of the energy sector, accurate consumption forecasting facilitates power system planning and stable grid operations. Energy consumption forecasting is an active research area; despite the abundance of devised models, electric consumption forecasting in residential buildings remains challenging due to high occupant energy use behavior variability. Hence the search for an appropriate model for accurate electric consumption forecasting is ever continuing. To this aim, this paper presents a spatial and temporal ensemble forecasting model for short-term electric consumption forecasting. The proposed work involves exploring electric consumption profiles at the apartment level through cluster analysis based on the k-means algorithm. The ensemble forecasting model consists of two deep learning models; Long Short-Term Memory Unit (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). First, the apartment-level historical electric consumption data is clustered. Later the clusters are aggregated based on consumption profiles of consumers. At the building and floor level, the ensemble models are trained using aggregated electric consumption data. The proposed ensemble model forecasts the electric consumption at three spatial scales apartment, building, and floor level for hourly, daily, and weekly forecasting horizon. Furthermore, the impact of spatial-temporal granularity and cluster analysis on the prediction accuracy is analyzed. The dataset used in this study comprises high-resolution electric consumption data acquired through smart meters recorded on an hourly basis over the period of one year. The consumption data belongs to four multifamily residential buildings situated in an urban area of South Korea. To prove the effectiveness of our proposed forecasting model, we compared our model with widely known machine learning models and deep learning variants. The results achieved by our proposed ensemble scheme verify that model has learned the sequential behavior of electric consumption by producing superior performance with the lowest MAPE of 4.182 and 4.54 at building and floor level prediction, respectively. The experimental findings suggest that the model has efficiently captured the dynamic electric consumption characteristics to exploit ensemble model diversities and achieved lower forecasting error. The proposed ensemble forecasting scheme is well suited for predictive modeling and short-term load forecasting.

Nowcasting heavy precipitation over the Netherlands using a 13-year radar archive: a machine learning approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eva van der Kooij ◽  
Marc Schleiss ◽  
Riccardo Taormina ◽  
Francesco Fioranelli ◽  
Dorien Lugt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Radar Images

<p>Accurate short-term forecasts, also known as nowcasts, of heavy precipitation are desirable for creating early warning systems for extreme weather and its consequences, e.g. urban flooding. In this research, we explore the use of machine learning for short-term prediction of heavy rainfall showers in the Netherlands.</p><p>We assess the performance of a recurrent, convolutional neural network (TrajGRU) with lead times of 0 to 2 hours. The network is trained on a 13-year archive of radar images with 5-min temporal and 1-km spatial resolution from the precipitation radars of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). We aim to train the model to predict the formation and dissipation of dynamic, heavy, localized rain events, a task for which traditional Lagrangian nowcasting methods still come up short.</p><p>We report on different ways to optimize predictive performance for heavy rainfall intensities through several experiments. The large dataset available provides many possible configurations for training. To focus on heavy rainfall intensities, we use different subsets of this dataset through using different conditions for event selection and varying the ratio of light and heavy precipitation events present in the training data set and change the loss function used to train the model.</p><p>To assess the performance of the model, we compare our method to current state-of-the-art Lagrangian nowcasting system from the pySTEPS library, like S-PROG, a deterministic approximation of an ensemble mean forecast. The results of the experiments are used to discuss the pros and cons of machine-learning based methods for precipitation nowcasting and possible ways to further increase performance.</p>

scholarly journals Efficient Deep Learning Models for DGA Domain Detection

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Juhong Namgung ◽  
Siwoon Son ◽  
Yang-Sae Moon
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Domain Names ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Domain Sequence ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
And Control

In recent years, cyberattacks using command and control (C&C) servers have significantly increased. To hide their C&C servers, attackers often use a domain generation algorithm (DGA), which automatically generates domain names for the C&C servers. Accordingly, extensive research on DGA domain detection has been conducted. However, existing methods cannot accurately detect continuously generated DGA domains and can easily be evaded by an attacker. Recently, long short-term memory- (LSTM-) based deep learning models have been introduced to detect DGA domains in real time using only domain names without feature extraction or additional information. In this paper, we propose an efficient DGA domain detection method based on bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), which learns bidirectional information as opposed to unidirectional information learned by LSTM. We further maximize the detection performance with a convolutional neural network (CNN) + BiLSTM ensemble model using Attention mechanism, which allows the model to learn both local and global information in a domain sequence. Experimental results show that existing CNN and LSTM models achieved F1-scores of 0.9384 and 0.9597, respectively, while the proposed BiLSTM and ensemble models achieved higher F1-scores of 0.9618 and 0.9666, respectively. In addition, the ensemble model achieved the best performance for most DGA domain classes, enabling more accurate DGA domain detection than existing models.

scholarly journals The use of machine translation algorithm based on residual and LSTM neural network in translation teaching

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. e0240663
Author(s):  
Beibei Ren
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Machine Translation ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Translation Model ◽  
Translation Quality ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Deep Learning Neural Network

With the rapid development of big data and deep learning, breakthroughs have been made in phonetic and textual research, the two fundamental attributes of language. Language is an essential medium of information exchange in teaching activity. The aim is to promote the transformation of the training mode and content of translation major and the application of the translation service industry in various fields. Based on previous research, the SCN-LSTM (Skip Convolutional Network and Long Short Term Memory) translation model of deep learning neural network is constructed by learning and training the real dataset and the public PTB (Penn Treebank Dataset). The feasibility of the model’s performance, translation quality, and adaptability in practical teaching is analyzed to provide a theoretical basis for the research and application of the SCN-LSTM translation model in English teaching. The results show that the capability of the neural network for translation teaching is nearly one times higher than that of the traditional N-tuple translation model, and the fusion model performs much better than the single model, translation quality, and teaching effect. To be specific, the accuracy of the SCN-LSTM translation model based on deep learning neural network is 95.21%, the degree of translation confusion is reduced by 39.21% compared with that of the LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) model, and the adaptability is 0.4 times that of the N-tuple model. With the highest level of satisfaction in practical teaching evaluation, the SCN-LSTM translation model has achieved a favorable effect on the translation teaching of the English major. In summary, the performance and quality of the translation model are improved significantly by learning the language characteristics in translations by teachers and students, providing ideas for applying machine translation in professional translation teaching.

scholarly journals Chinese Text Classification Model Based on Deep Learning

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue Li ◽  
Xutao Wang ◽  
Pengjian Xu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Language Processing ◽  
Chinese Text ◽  
Text Classification ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Text classification is of importance in natural language processing, as the massive text information containing huge amounts of value needs to be classified into different categories for further use. In order to better classify text, our paper tries to build a deep learning model which achieves better classification results in Chinese text than those of other researchers’ models. After comparing different methods, long short-term memory (LSTM) and convolutional neural network (CNN) methods were selected as deep learning methods to classify Chinese text. LSTM is a special kind of recurrent neural network (RNN), which is capable of processing serialized information through its recurrent structure. By contrast, CNN has shown its ability to extract features from visual imagery. Therefore, two layers of LSTM and one layer of CNN were integrated to our new model: the BLSTM-C model (BLSTM stands for bi-directional long short-term memory while C stands for CNN.) LSTM was responsible for obtaining a sequence output based on past and future contexts, which was then input to the convolutional layer for extracting features. In our experiments, the proposed BLSTM-C model was evaluated in several ways. In the results, the model exhibited remarkable performance in text classification, especially in Chinese texts.

scholarly journals Comparative Analysis of Recurrent Neural Network Architectures for Reservoir Inflow Forecasting

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1500 ◽  
Author(s):  
Halit Apaydin ◽  
Hajar Feizi ◽  
Mohammad Taghi Sattari ◽  
Muslume Sevba Colak ◽  
Shahaboddin Shamshirband ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Recurrent Neural Network ◽  
Energy Production ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Dam Reservoir ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Due to the stochastic nature and complexity of flow, as well as the existence of hydrological uncertainties, predicting streamflow in dam reservoirs, especially in semi-arid and arid areas, is essential for the optimal and timely use of surface water resources. In this research, daily streamflow to the Ermenek hydroelectric dam reservoir located in Turkey is simulated using deep recurrent neural network (RNN) architectures, including bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), long short-term memory (LSTM), and simple recurrent neural networks (simple RNN). For this purpose, daily observational flow data are used during the period 2012–2018, and all models are coded in Python software programming language. Only delays of streamflow time series are used as the input of models. Then, based on the correlation coefficient (CC), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS), results of deep-learning architectures are compared with one another and with an artificial neural network (ANN) with two hidden layers. Results indicate that the accuracy of deep-learning RNN methods are better and more accurate than ANN. Among methods used in deep learning, the LSTM method has the best accuracy, namely, the simulated streamflow to the dam reservoir with 90% accuracy in the training stage and 87% accuracy in the testing stage. However, the accuracies of ANN in training and testing stages are 86% and 85%, respectively. Considering that the Ermenek Dam is used for hydroelectric purposes and energy production, modeling inflow in the most realistic way may lead to an increase in energy production and income by optimizing water management. Hence, multi-percentage improvements can be extremely useful. According to results, deep-learning methods of RNNs can be used for estimating streamflow to the Ermenek Dam reservoir due to their accuracy.

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