On the long term evolution of noctilucent clouds

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franz-Josef Lübken ◽  
Gerd Baumgarten
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Vapor Concentration ◽  
Noctilucent Clouds ◽  
Mesopause Region ◽  
Water Ice ◽  
Term Evolution ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Modern Era

<p>Some of the earliest observations in the transition region between the Earth's atmosphere and space (roughly at 80-120km) come from so called `noctilucent clouds' (NLC) which are located around 83km altitude and consist of water ice particles. They owe their existence to the very cold summer mesopause region (~130K) at mid and high latitudes. There is a long standing dispute whether NLC are indicators of climate change in the middle atmosphere. We use model simulations of the background atmosphere and of ice particle formation for a time period of 138 years to show that an increase of NLC appearance is expected for recent decades due to increased anthropogenic release of methane being oxidized to water vapor in the middle atmosphere. Since the beginning of industrialization the water vapor concentration at NLC heights has presumably increased by about 40 percent (1 ppmv). The water vapor increase leads to a large enhancement of NLC brightness. Increased cooling by enhanced carbon dioxide alone (assuming no water vapor increase) counter-intuitively would lead to a decrease(!) of NLC brightness. NLC existed presumably since centuries, but the chance to observe them by naked eye was very small before the 20th century, whereas it is likely to see an NLC in the modern era. The eruption of volcano Krakatoa in 1883 has seemingly triggered the first observation of an NLC in 1885. In this presentation we extend our analysis from middle to polar latitudes and expand comparison with observations.</p>

scholarly journals Long-term behavior of the concentration of the minor constituents in the mesosphere – a model study

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 2779-2792 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Grygalashvyly ◽  
G. R. Sonnemann ◽  
P. Hartogh
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Vapor Concentration ◽  
Mixing Ratio ◽  
Constant Growth Rate ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
Water Vapor Mixing Ratio ◽  
Long Term Behavior

Abstract. We investigate the influence the rising concentrations of methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide which have occurred since the pre-industrial era, have had on the chemistry of the mesosphere. For this investigation we use our global 3-D-model COMMA-IAP which was designed for the exploration of the MLT-region and in particular the extended mesopause region. Assumptions and approximations for the trends in the Lyman-α flux (needed for the water vapor dissociation rate), methane and the water vapor mixing ratio at the hygropause are necessary to accomplish this study. To approximate the solar Lyman-α flux back to the pre-industrial time, we derived a quadratic fit using the sunspot number record which extends back to 1749 and is the only solar proxy available for the Lyman-α flux prior to 1947. We assume that methane increases with a constant growth rate from the pre-industrial era to the present. An unsolved problem for the model calculations consists of how the water vapor mixing ratio at the hygropause should be specified during this period. We assume that the hygropause was dryer during pre-industrial times than the present. As a consequence of methane oxidation, the model simulation indicates that the middle atmosphere has become more humid as a result of the rising methane concentration, but with some dependence on height and with a small time delay of few years. The solar influence on the water vapor mixing ratio is insignificant below about 80 km in summer high latitudes, but becomes increasingly more important above this altitude. The enhanced water vapor concentration increases the hydrogen radical concentration and reduces the mesospheric ozone. A second region of stronger ozone decrease is located in the vicinity of the stratopause. Increases in CO2 concentration enhance slightly the concentration of CO in the mesosphere. However, its influence upon the chemistry is small and its main effect is connected with a cooling of the upper atmosphere. The long-term behavior of water vapor is discussed in particular with respect to its impact on the NLC region.

Trends in noctilucent clouds

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franz-Josef Lübken ◽  
Gerd Baumgarten
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Water Vapor ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Particle Model ◽  
Noctilucent Clouds ◽  
Middle Latitudes ◽  
Ice Particles ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Ice Water

<p>Noctilucent clouds are often cited as potential indicators of climate change in the middle<br>atmosphere. They owe their existence to the very cold summer mesopause region (~130K) at mid<br>and high latitudes. We analyze trends derived from the Leibniz-Institute Middle Atmosphere<br>Model (LIMA) and the MIMAS ice particle model (Mesospheric Ice Microphysics And tranSport model)<br>for the years 1871-2008 and for middle, high and arctic latitudes, respectively.<br>Model runs with and without an increase of carbon dioxide and water vapor (from methane oxidation)<br>concentration are performed. Trends are most prominent after ~1960 when the increase of both<br>carbon dioxide and water vapor accelerates. Negative trends of (geometric) NLC altitudes are primarily<br>due to cooling below NLC altitudes caused by carbon dioxide increase. Increases of ice particle<br>radii and NLC brightness with time are mainly caused by an enhancement of water vapor.<br>Several ice layer and background parameter trends are similar at high and arctic latitudes but are<br>substantially different at middle latitudes. This concerns, for example, occurrence rates, ice water<br>content (IWC), and number of ice particles in a column. Considering the time period after 1960,<br>geometric altitudes of NLC decrease by approximately 260m per decade, and brightness increases by<br>roughly 50% (1960-2008), independent of latitude. NLC altitudes decrease by approximately 15-20m<br>per increase of carbon dioxide by 1ppmv. The number of ice particles in a column and also at the<br>altitude of maximum backscatter is nearly constant with time. At all latitudes, yearly mean NLC<br>appear at altitudes where temperatures are close to 145+/-1K. Ice particles are present nearly<br>all the time at high and arctic latitudes, but are much less common at middle latitudes. Ice water<br>content and maximum backscatter are highly correlated, where the slope depends on latitude. This<br>allows to combine data sets from satellites and lidars. Furthermore, IWC and the concentration of<br>water vapor at the altitude of maximum backscatter are also strongly correlated. Results from<br>LIMA/MIMAS agree nicely with observations.</p>

scholarly journals Hydroxyl layer: trend of number density and intra-annual variability

2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 749-767 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. R. Sonnemann ◽  
P. Hartogh ◽  
U. Berger ◽  
M. Grygalashvyly
Keyword(s):  
Atomic Hydrogen ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Impacts ◽  
Number Density ◽  
Hemispheric Differences ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Mesopause Region ◽  
Production Term

Abstract. The layer of vibrationally excited hydroxyl (OH*) near the mesopause in Earth's atmosphere is widely used to derive the temperature at this height and to observe dynamical processes such as gravity waves. The concentration of OH* is controlled by the product of atomic hydrogen, with ozone creating a layer of enhanced concentration in the mesopause region. However, the basic influences on the OH* layer are atomic oxygen and temperature. The long-term monitoring of this layer provides information on a changing atmosphere. It is important to know which proportion of a trend results from anthropogenic impacts on the atmosphere and which proportion reflects natural variations. In a previous paper (Grygalashvyly et al., 2014), the trend of the height of the layer and the trend in temperature were investigated particularly in midlatitudes on the basis of our coupled dynamic and chemical transport model LIMA (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere). In this paper we consider the trend for the number density between the years 1961 and 2009 and analyze the reason of the trends on a global scale. Further, we consider intra-annual variations. Temperature and wind have the strongest impacts on the trend. Surprisingly, the increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) has no clear influence on the chemistry of OH*. The main reason for this lies in the fact that, in the production term of OH*, if atomic hydrogen increases due to increasing humidity of the middle atmosphere by methane oxidation, ozone decreases. The maximum of the OH* layer is found in the mesopause region and is very variable. The mesopause region is a very intricate domain marked by changeable dynamics and strong gradients of all chemically active minor constituents determining the OH* chemistry. The OH* concentration responds, in part, very sensitively to small changes in these parameters. The cause for this behavior is given by nonlinear reactions of the photochemical system being a nonlinear enforced chemical oscillator driven by the diurnal-periodic solar insolation. At the height of the OH* layer the system operates in the vicinity of chemical resonance. The solar cycle is mirrored in the data, but the long-term behavior due to the trend in the Lyman-α radiation is very small. The number density shows distinct hemispheric differences. The calculated OH* values show sometimes a step around a certain year. We introduce a method to find out the date of this step and discuss a possible reason for such behavior.

scholarly journals Long-term evolution and seasonal modulation of methanol above Jungfraujoch (46.5° N, 8.0° E): optimisation of the retrieval strategy, comparison with model simulations and independent observations

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 4659-4692 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Bader ◽  
T. Stavrakou ◽  
J.-F. Muller ◽  
S. Reimann ◽  
C. D. Boone ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Peak Amplitude ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
Retrieval Strategy ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Term Evolution ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Independent Observations ◽  
June July

Abstract. Methanol (CH3OH) is the second most abundant organic compound in the Earth's atmosphere after methane. In this work, we present the first long-term time series of methanol total, lower tropospheric and upper tropospheric-lower stratospheric partial columns derived from the analysis of high resolution Fourier transform infrared solar spectra recorded at the Jungfraujoch station (46.5° N, 3580 m a.s.l.). The retrieval of methanol is very challenging due to strong absorptions of ozone in the region of the selected υ8 band of CH3OH. Two wide spectral intervals have been defined and adjusted in order to maximize the information content. Methanol does not exhibit a significant trend over the 1995–2012 time period, but a strong seasonal modulation characterized by maximum values and variability in June–July, minimum columns in winter and a peak-to-peak amplitude of 130%. In situ measurements performed at the Jungfraujoch and ACE-FTS occultations give similar results for the methanol seasonal variation. The total and lower tropospheric columns are also compared with IMAGESv2 model simulations. There is no systematic bias between the observations and IMAGESv2 but the model underestimates the peak-to-peak amplitude of the seasonal modulations.

scholarly journals The stability and calibration of water vapor isotope ratio measurements during long-term deployments

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 5425-5466 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Bailey ◽  
D. Noone ◽  
M. Berkelhammer ◽  
H. C. Steen-Larsen ◽  
P. Sato
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Concentration Dependence ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Vapor Concentration ◽  
Mauna Loa ◽  
Laser Absorption ◽  
Low Humidity ◽  
The Stability

Abstract. With the recent advent of commercial laser absorption spectrometers, field studies measuring stable isotope ratios of hydrogen and oxygen in water vapor have proliferated. These pioneering analyses have provided invaluable feedback about best strategies for optimizing instrumental accuracy, yet questions still remain about instrument performance and calibration approaches for multi-year field deployments. With clear scientific potential for using these instruments to carry out long-term monitoring of the hydrological cycle, this study examines the long-term stability of the isotopic biases associated with three cavity-enhanced laser absorption spectrometers – calibrated with different systems and approaches – at two remote field sites: Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, USA, and Greenland Environmental Observatory, Summit, Greenland. The analysis pays particular attention to the stability of measurement dependencies on water vapor concentration and also evaluates whether these so-called concentration-dependences are sensitive to statistical curve-fitting choices or measurement hysteresis. The results suggest evidence of monthly-to-seasonal concentration-dependence variability – which likely stems from low signal-to-noise at the humidity-range extremes – but no long-term directional drift. At Mauna Loa, where the isotopic analyzer is calibrated by injection of liquid water standards into a vaporizer, the largest source of inaccuracy in characterizing the concentration-dependence stems from an insufficient density of calibration points at low humidity. In comparison, at Greenland, the largest source of inaccuracy is measurement hysteresis associated with interactions between the reference vapor, generated by a custom dew point generator (DPG), and the sample tubing. Nevertheless, prediction errors associated with correcting the concentration-dependence are small compared to total measurement uncertainty. At both sites, a dominant source of uncertainty is instrumental precision at low humidity, which cannot be reduced by improving calibration strategies. Challenges in monitoring long-term isotopic drift are also discussed in light of the different calibration systems evaluated.

scholarly journals Methodology for Water Monitoring in the Upper Troposphere with Raman Lidar at the Haute-Provence Observatory

2009 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. 2149-2160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christophe Hoareau ◽  
Philippe Keckhut ◽  
Alain Sarkissian ◽  
Jean-Luc Baray ◽  
Georges Durry
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Time Integration ◽  
Raman Lidar ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Term Evolution ◽  
Calibration Methods ◽  
Calibration Techniques

Abstract A Raman water vapor lidar has been developed at the Haute-Provence Observatory to study the distribution of water in the upper troposphere and its long-term evolution. Some investigations have been proposed and described to ensure a pertinent monitoring of water vapor in the upper troposphere. A new method to take into account the geophysical variability for time integration processes has been developed based on the stationarity of water vapor. Successive measurements, considered as independent, have been used to retrieve H2O profiles that were recorded during the same nighttimes over a few hours. Various calibration methods, including zenith clear-sky observation, standard meteorological radiosondes, and total water vapor column, have been investigated. A method to evaluate these calibration techniques has been proposed based on the variance weakening. For the lidar at the Haute-Provence Observatory, the calibration based on the total water vapor column appears to be the optimum method. Radiosondes also give comparable results, but do not allow lidar to be independent. The clear-sky zenith observation is an original technique, and seems to accurately identify discontinuities. However, it appears to be less reliable, based on the variance investigation, than the two others. It is also sensitive to aerosol loading, which is also expected to vary with time.

Long-term ZTD and ZWD series and climate normals using NCEP1

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcelo C. Santos ◽  
Marlon Moura ◽  
Thalia Nikolaidou ◽  
Kyriakos Balidakis
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Window Size ◽  
Total Delay ◽  
Weather Model ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Two Parameters ◽  
The Impact

<p>The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recommends the use of climate normals for dealing with the analysis of variations and trends of the meteorological parameters or be used as input to predictive climate models. The suggested period is 30 years, but shorter periods can also be employed. We computed zenith total delay (ZTD) and zenith wet delay (ZWD) series for each node of NCEP1 numerical weather model, starting in 1948. We computed climate normals of those two parameters using periods of 1, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 years, with and without the annual signature. To assess window size impact, we looked at variations and correlation of trends derived from the various solutions. Results shows the obvious better smoothing using larger windows and the decrease of the impact of annual signature. Regions with positive trends appear to be concentrated in continental masses and the equator line, and the most significant negative trends are in the oceans. ZTD increase is caused primarily by an increase in ZWD and is an indication of variations in ZWD variables. In the case of water vapor, such an increase in ZWD shows us a probable increase in the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. Comparisons with trends computed from GNSS-derived ZTD and ZWD series are included with the caveat that time period for such comparisons must be shorter.</p>

scholarly journals Long-term trends of the concentration of the minor constituents in the mesosphere – a model study

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 15453-15494 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Grygalashvyly ◽  
G. R. Sonnemann ◽  
P. Hartogh
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Small Time ◽  
Vapor Concentration ◽  
Time Range ◽  
Mixing Ratio ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
Water Vapor Mixing Ratio ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We investigate the influence of the rising concentrations of methane, dinitrogen oxide and carbon dioxide since the pre-industrial era upon the chemistry of the mesosphere. We use for calculations our global 3D-model COMMA-IAP designed for the exploration of the MLT-region and particularly the extended mesopause region. In order to get approximated data of the solar Lyman-α flux back to the pre-industrial time, we derived a quadratic fit using the sunspot number available since 1749 as the only solar proxy for the Lyman-α flux before 1947. The Lyman-α flux values are employed to determine the water vapor dissociation rate. The water vapor trend analysis utilizes estimated methane trends since the pre-industrial era. An unsolved problem for the model calculations consists of the water vapor mixing ratio at the hygropause during the time range of trend calculation. We assume that the hygropause was dryer at the pre-industrial time than currently. As a consequence of the methane oxidation, the middle atmosphere became more humid according to the rising methane concentration, but depending on height and with a small time delay of few years. The solar influence on the water vapor mixing ratio is insignificant below about 80 km within summery high latitudes, but it becomes increasingly more important above this altitude. The growing water vapor concentration increases the hydrogen radical concentration and reduces the mesospheric ozone. A second region of stronger ozone decrease is located in the vicinity of the stratopause. Increasing CO2 concentration enhances slightly the concentration of CO in the mesosphere, but its influence upon the chemistry is small and its main effect is connected with a cooling of the upper atmosphere. We discuss the trends particularly in view of the impact on the NLC region.

scholarly journals What caused the frequent and widespread occurrences of noctilucent clouds at middle latitudes in 2020?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Dalin ◽  
Hidehiko Suzuki ◽  
Nikolay Pertsev ◽  
Vladimir Perminov ◽  
Nikita Shevchuk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Middle Latitude ◽  
Summer Season ◽  
Vapor Concentration ◽  
Water Vapor Concentration ◽  
Noctilucent Clouds ◽  
Middle Latitudes ◽  
Concentration Maximum ◽  
Mesopause Temperature

Abstract. The 2020 summer season has revealed frequent occurrences of noctilucent clouds (NLCs) around the Northern hemisphere at middle latitudes (45–55° N), with the lowest latitude at which NLCs were seen being 34.1° N. In order to investigate a reason for this NLC extraordinary summer season, we have analyzed long-term Aura/MLS satellite data for all available summer periods from 2005 to 2020. Both Aura/MLS summer temperature and water vapor in the upper mesosphere and the mesopause region, between 74 and 89 km altitude, have been considered. We have found that there has been a moderate decrease in the upper mesosphere temperature between 2016 and 2020 and no dramatic changes have been observed in temperature in the summer of 2020 at the middle latitude mesopause. At the same time, water vapor concentration has significantly increased (by about 12–15 %) in the zonal mean H2O value in the 2020 summer compared to 2017, meaning that the summer mesopause at middle latitudes has become more wet. At the same time, no increase in water vapor has been detected at the high latitude high altitude mesopause. A combination of lower mesopause temperature and water vapor concentration maximum at middle latitudes is the main reason for frequent and widespread occurrences of NLCs seen around the globe at middle latitudes in the summer of 2020. The 24th solar cycle minimum cannot explain the H2O maximum in 2020 since the correlation between Lyman-α flux and the amount of water vapor is low. The increase in volcanic activity from 2013 to 2015 (and its recent maximum occurred in 2015) explains the increased amount of water vapor in the upper mesosphere for the past years and its maximum in 2020 due to volcanic water vapor being injected into the atmosphere and transported into the upper mesosphere. The 5-year delay between volcanic activity and water vapor maximum is well explained by a general meridional-vertical atmospheric circulation.

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