Sea-level rise impacts on the tides of the European Shelf: mechanisms analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deborah Idier ◽  
François Paris ◽  
Goneri Le Cozannet ◽  
Faiza Boulahya ◽  
Franck Dumas
Keyword(s):  
Continental Shelf ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
High Tide ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Maximum Water Level ◽  
Resonance Properties ◽  
European Shelf ◽  
Defence Strategies ◽  
Sea Level Rise Impacts

<p>Sea-level rise (SLR) can modify not only total water levels, but also tidal dynamics. Several studies have investigated the effects of SLR on the tides of the western European continental shelf (mainly the M2 component). Idier et al. (2017) further investigate this issue using a modelling-based approach, considering uniform SLR scenarios from −0.25 m to +10 m above present-day sea level. Assuming that coastal defences are constructed along present-day shorelines, the patterns of change in high tide levels (annual maximum water level) are spatially similar, regardless of the magnitude of sea-level rise (i.e., the sign of the change remains the same, regardless of the SLR scenario) over most of the area (70%). These changes are generally proportional to SLR, as long as SLR remains smaller than 2 m. Depending on the location, they can account for +/−15% of regional SLR. Changes in high tide levels are much less proportional to SLR when flooding is allowed, in particular in the German Bight. However, some areas (e.g., the English Channel) are not very sensitive to this option, meaning that the effects of SLR would be predictable in these areas, even if future coastal defence strategies are ignored.</p><p>In the present work, we focus on the mechanisms driving these tide changes, especially the bed friction damping, the resonance properties and the reflection at the coast, i.e., local and non-local processes. Additional simulations are done to quantify the effect of these mechanisms on tide changes.</p><p> </p><p>Reference: Idier D., Paris F., Le Cozannet G., Boulahya F., Dumas F. (2017) Sea-level rise impacts on the tides of the European Shelf. Continental Shelf Research, 137, 56-71.</p>

scholarly journals New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott A. Kulp ◽  
Benjamin H. Strauss
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
High Tide ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Digital Elevation ◽  
Elevation Data ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
Elevation Model ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract Most estimates of global mean sea-level rise this century fall below 2 m. This quantity is comparable to the positive vertical bias of the principle digital elevation model (DEM) used to assess global and national population exposures to extreme coastal water levels, NASA’s SRTM. CoastalDEM is a new DEM utilizing neural networks to reduce SRTM error. Here we show – employing CoastalDEM—that 190 M people (150–250 M, 90% CI) currently occupy global land below projected high tide lines for 2100 under low carbon emissions, up from 110 M today, for a median increase of 80 M. These figures triple SRTM-based values. Under high emissions, CoastalDEM indicates up to 630 M people live on land below projected annual flood levels for 2100, and up to 340 M for mid-century, versus roughly 250 M at present. We estimate one billion people now occupy land less than 10 m above current high tide lines, including 230 M below 1 m.

scholarly journals High-tide flooding disrupts local economic activity

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. eaau2736 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miyuki Hino ◽  
Samanthe Tiver Belanger ◽  
Christopher B. Field ◽  
Alexander R. Davies ◽  
Katharine J. Mach
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
High Tide ◽  
Comprehensive Understanding ◽  
Local Adaptations ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Sea Level Rise Impacts

Evaluation of observed sea level rise impacts to date has emphasized sea level extremes, such as those from tropical cyclones. Far less is known about the consequences of more frequent high-tide flooding. Empirical analysis of the disruption caused by high-tide floods, also called nuisance or sunny-day floods, is challenging due to the short duration of these floods and their impacts. Through a novel approach, we estimate the effects of high-tide flooding on local economic activity. High-tide flooding already measurably affects local economic activity in Annapolis, Maryland, reducing visits to the historic downtown by 1.7% (95% confidence interval, 1.0 to 2.6%). With 3 and 12 inches of additional sea level rise, high-tide floods would reduce visits by 3.6% (3.2 to 4.0%) and 24% (19 to 28%), respectively. A more comprehensive understanding of the impacts of high-tide flooding can help to guide efficient responses from local adaptations to global mitigation of climate change.

scholarly journals Inundation due to the tide in the context of sea level rise and the role of Can-Gio forest in the reduction of inundation

2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (K7) ◽  
pp. 76-85
Author(s):  
Hoa Thi Le ◽  
Hoa Tang My Son ◽  
Hong Thi My Tran ◽  
Giang Song Le
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
High Tide ◽  
High Water ◽  
High Water Level ◽  
Maximum Water Level ◽  
Level Increase ◽  
The Future ◽  
Calculation Results

Lower basin of Sai Gon – Dong Nai river is lowland. It’s inundated at high tide. Using mathematical model method with the integrated 1D2D model, the inundation hazard due to the high tide in this region has been evaluated through the inundated area. The calculation results also showed that in the case when the damping ability of Can Gio forest is disabled high water level at Nha Be and Phu An can be increased about 2 – 3 cm and the effect will be stronger in the future following the sea level rise. In the case the Can Gio forest is diked to create a reservoir with reasonable in- and outflow directions, the high water level at Nha Be and Phu An can be decreased about 10 - 11 cm and the effect will be stronger in the future following the sea level rise. This water level decrease effect almost compensates the water level increase due to the sea level rise and keeps the maximum water level at Phu An not exceed actual one until 2050 regardless the sea level rise.

scholarly journals Sea-level rise impacts on the tides of the European Shelf

2017 ◽  
Vol 137 ◽  
pp. 56-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Déborah Idier ◽  
François Paris ◽  
Gonéri Le Cozannet ◽  
Faiza Boulahya ◽  
Franck Dumas
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
European Shelf ◽  
Sea Level Rise Impacts

scholarly journals Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin H. Strauss ◽  
Philip M. Orton ◽  
Klaus Bittermann ◽  
Maya K. Buchanan ◽  
Daniel M. Gilford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
East Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Sea Levels

AbstractIn 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States, creating widespread coastal flooding and over $60 billion in reported economic damage. The potential influence of climate change on the storm itself has been debated, but sea level rise driven by anthropogenic climate change more clearly contributed to damages. To quantify this effect, here we simulate water levels and damage both as they occurred and as they would have occurred across a range of lower sea levels corresponding to different estimates of attributable sea level rise. We find that approximately $8.1B ($4.7B–$14.0B, 5th–95th percentiles) of Sandy’s damages are attributable to climate-mediated anthropogenic sea level rise, as is extension of the flood area to affect 71 (40–131) thousand additional people. The same general approach demonstrated here may be applied to impact assessments for other past and future coastal storms.

GIS-based approach to estimate sea level rise impacts on Damietta coast, Egypt

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasha M. Abou Samra ◽  
Maie El-Gammal ◽  
Nawaf Al-Mutairi ◽  
Mohammad M. Alsahli ◽  
Mahmoud. S. Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Sea Level Rise Impacts

scholarly journals Quantifying Uncertainty in Exposure to Coastal Hazards Associated with Both Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies: A U.S. Pacific Northwest Alternative Coastal Futures Analysis

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 545
Author(s):  
Alexis K. Mills ◽  
Peter Ruggiero ◽  
John P. Bolte ◽  
Katherine A. Serafin ◽  
Eva Lipiec
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Quantifying Uncertainty

Coastal communities face heightened risk to coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea-level rise, changing storminess patterns, and evolving human development pressures. Incorporating uncertainty associated with both climate change and the range of possible adaptation measures is essential for projecting the evolving exposure to coastal flooding and erosion, as well as associated community vulnerability through time. A spatially explicit agent-based modeling platform, that provides a scenario-based framework for examining interactions between human and natural systems across a landscape, was used in Tillamook County, OR (USA) to explore strategies that may reduce exposure to coastal hazards within the context of climate change. Probabilistic simulations of extreme water levels were used to assess the impacts of variable projections of sea-level rise and storminess both as individual climate drivers and under a range of integrated climate change scenarios through the end of the century. Additionally, policy drivers, modeled both as individual management decisions and as policies integrated within adaptation scenarios, captured variability in possible human response to increased hazards risk. The relative contribution of variability and uncertainty from both climate change and policy decisions was quantified using three stakeholder relevant landscape performance metrics related to flooding, erosion, and recreational beach accessibility. In general, policy decisions introduced greater variability and uncertainty to the impacts of coastal hazards than climate change uncertainty. Quantifying uncertainty across a suite of coproduced performance metrics can help determine the relative impact of management decisions on the adaptive capacity of communities under future climate scenarios.

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