Current and future flood risk assessment in the Danube region

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Schröter ◽  
Michel Wortmann ◽  
Stefan Lüdtke ◽  
Ben Hayes ◽  
Martin Drews ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Danube Catchment ◽  
The Future ◽  
Danube Region

<p>Severe hydro-meteorological hazards have been increasing during recent decades and, as a consequence of global change, more frequent and intense events are expected in the future. Climate informed planning of adaptation actions needs both consistent and reliable information about future risks and associated uncertainties, and appropriate tools to support comprehensive risk assessment and management. <br>The Future Danube Model (FDM) is a multi-hazard and risk model suite for the Danube region which provides climate information related to perils such as heavy precipitation, heatwaves, floods and droughts under recent and future climate conditions. FDM has a modular structure with exchangeable components for climate input, hydrology, inundation, risk, adaptation and visualisation. FDM is implemented within the open-source OASIS Loss Modelling Framework, which defines a standard for estimating ground-up loss and financial damage of disaster events or event scenarios. <br>The OASIS lmf implementation of the FDM is showcased for the current and future fluvial flood risk assessment in the Danube catchment. We generate stochastic inundation event sets for current and future climate in the Danube region using the output of several EURO-CORDEX models as climate input. One event set represents 10,000 years of daily climate data for a given climate model, period and representative concentration pathway. With this input, we conduct long term continuous simulations of flood processes using a coupled semi-distributed hydrological and a 1.5D hydraulic model for fluvial floods. Flood losses to residential building are estimated using a probabilistic multi-variable vulnerability model. Effects of adaptation actions are exemplified by scenarios of private precaution. Changes in risk are illustrated with exceedance probability curves for different event sets representing current and future climate on different spatial aggregation levels which are of interest for adaptation planning.</p>

Ice-Jam Flood Risk Assessment and Hazard Mapping under Future Climate

2020 ◽  
Vol 146 (6) ◽  
pp. 04020029 ◽  
Author(s):  
Apurba Das ◽  
Prabin Rokaya ◽  
Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Hazard Mapping ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Ice Jam

Flood Risk Assessment and Forecasting for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basins

10.1596/28574 ◽  
2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satya Priya ◽  
William Young ◽  
Thomas Hopson ◽  
Ankit Avasthi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
The Ganges

scholarly journals Method for fluvial and pluvial flood risk assessment in rural settlements

MethodsX ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 101463
Author(s):  
Maurizio Tiepolo ◽  
Elena Belcore ◽  
Sarah Braccio ◽  
Souradji Issa ◽  
Giovanni Massazza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Rural Settlements

scholarly journals An Integrated Flood Risk Assessment Model for Cities Located in the Transitional Zone between Taihang Mountains and North China Plain: A Case Study in Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang Liu ◽  
Hongmao Yang ◽  
Min Liu ◽  
Rui Sun ◽  
Junhai Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
North China Plain ◽  
North China ◽  
Transitional Zone ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Map

Cities located in the transitional zone between Taihang Mountains and North China plain run high flood risk in recent years, especially urban waterlogging risk. In this paper, we take Shijiazhuang, which is located in this transitional zone, as the study area and proposed a new flood risk assessment model for this specific geographical environment. Flood risk assessment indicator factors are established by using the digital elevation model (DEM), along with land cover, economic, population, and precipitation data. A min-max normalization method is used to normalize the indices. An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method is used to determine the weight of each normalized index and the geographic information system (GIS) spatial analysis tool is adopted for calculating the risk map of flood disaster in Shijiazhuang. This risk map is consistent with the reports released by Hebei Provincial Water Conservancy Bureau and can provide reference for flood risk management.

scholarly journals A Case Study of Flood Risk Evaluation Based on Emergy Theory and Cloud Model in Anyang Region, China

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 420
Author(s):  
Zening Wu ◽  
Yuhai Cui ◽  
Yuan Guo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Flood Disaster ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Emergy Theory

With the progression of climate change, the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall have increased in many parts of the world, while the continuous acceleration of urbanization has made cities more vulnerable to floods. In order to effectively estimate and assess the risks brought by flood disasters, this paper proposes a regional flood disaster risk assessment model combining emergy theory and the cloud model. The emergy theory can measure many kinds of hazardous factor and convert them into unified solar emergy (sej) for quantification. The cloud model can transform the uncertainty in flood risk assessment into certainty in an appropriate way, making the urban flood risk assessment more accurate and effective. In this study, the flood risk assessment model combines the advantages of the two research methods to establish a natural and social dual flood risk assessment system. Based on this, the risk assessment system of the flood hazard cloud model is established. This model was used in a flood disaster risk assessment, and the risk level was divided into five levels: very low risk, low risk, medium risk, high risk, and very high risk. Flood hazard risk results were obtained by using the entropy weight method and fuzzy transformation method. As an example for the application of this model, this paper focuses on the Anyang region which has a typical continental monsoon climate. The results show that the Anyang region has a serious flood disaster threat. Within this region, Linzhou County and Anyang County have very high levels of risk for flood disaster, while Hua County, Neihuang County, Wenfeng District and Beiguan District have high levels of risk for flood disaster. These areas are the core urban areas and the economic center of local administrative regions, with 70% of the industrial clusters being situated in these regions. Only with the coordinated development of regional flood control planning, economy, and population, and reductions in the uncertainty of existing flood control and drainage facilities can the sustainable, healthy and stable development of the region be maintained.

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