Global soil erosion: Storm on the horizon 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pasquale Borrelli ◽  
David A. Robinson ◽  
Panos Panagos ◽  
Emanuele Lugato ◽  
Jae E. Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Water Erosion ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Global Soil

<p>We use the latest projections of climate and land use change (year 2070) to assess potential global soil erosion rates by water erosion (interrill and rill processes) (Borrelli et al., 2020) using the RUSLE-based semiempirical modeling platform (GloSEM) (Borrelli et al., 2017). With some degree of uncertainty, GloSEM allows prediction of both state and change of soil erosion, identifying hotspots thanks to its high resolution (250 × 250 m) and predicting future variation based on projections of change in land use, soil conservation practices, and climate change.</p><p>Three alternative scenarios (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) are tested using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) (LUH2 data) and 14 General Climate Models (GCMs) (WorldClim data), for a total of 42 modelling scenarios.</p><p>In the 2015 scenario, we estimate global soil erosion equal to 43 (+9.2/−7) Pg yr<sup>−1</sup>; with a study area covering ∼95.5% of the Earth’s land surface (in Borrelli et al. 2017 the study area was ~84.1% of the Earth’s land surface). The future scenarios suggest that socioeconomic developments impacting land use will either decrease (SSP1-RCP2.6–10%) or increase (SSP2-RCP4.5 +2%, SSP5-RCP8.5 +10%) water erosion by 2070. By contrast, climate projections, for all global dynamics scenarios, indicate a trend, moving toward a more vigorous hydrological cycle, which could increase global water erosion (+30 to +66%). Quantitatively, 56.1 (+20.6+ /- 16.4) Pg yr<sup>−1</sup>, 64.8 (+28.5/-21.4) Pg yr<sup>−1</sup>, and 71.6 (+32.5/-24.7) Pg yr<sup>−1</sup> are predicted for the SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively.</p><p>The modeling framework presented in this study adopts standardized data in an adequate format to communicate with adjacent disciplines and moves us toward robust, reproducible, and open data science.</p><p> </p><p>References</p><p>Borrelli, P., Robinson, D.A., Fleischer, L.R., Lugato, E., Ballabio, C., Alewell, C., Meusburger, K., Modugno, S., Schütt, B., Ferro, V. and Bagarello, V., 2017. An assessment of the global impact of 21st century land use change on soil erosion. Nature communications, 8(1), pp.1-13.</p><p>Borrelli, P., Robinson, D.A., Panagos, P., Lugato, E., Yang, J.E., Alewell, C., Wuepper, D., Montanarella, L. and Ballabio, C., 2020. Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(36), pp.21994-22001.</p>

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Floods Disaster on Soil Erosion Risk Based on the RUSLE-GloSEM Approach in Western Iran

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Morteza Akbari ◽  
Ehsan Neamatollahi ◽  
Hadi Memarian ◽  
Mohammad Alizadeh Noughani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Erosion Risk ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Global Soil ◽  
Major Floods ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Floods cause great damage to ecosystems and are among the main agents of soil erosion. Given the importance of soils for the functioning of ecosystems and development and improvement of bio-economic conditions, the risk and rate of soil erosion was assessed using the RUSLE model in Iran’s Lorestan province before and after a period of major floods in late 2018 and early 2019. Furthermore, soil erosion was calculated for current and future conditions based on the Global Soil Erosion Modeling Database (GloSEM). The results showed that agricultural development and land use change are the main causes of land degradation in the southern and central parts of the study area. The impact of floods was also significant since our evaluations showed that soil erosion increased from 4.12 t ha-1 yr-1 before the floods to 10.93 t ha-1 yr-1 afterwards. Field surveying using 64 ground control points determined that erodibility varies from 0.17 to 0.49% in the study area. Orchards, farms, rangelands and forests with moderate or low vegetation cover were the most vulnerable land uses to soil erosion. The GloSEM modeling results revealed that climate change is the main cause of change in the rate of soil erosion. Combined land use change-climate change simulation showed that soil erosion will increase considerably in the future under SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios. In the study area, both natural factors, i.e. climate change and human factors such as agricultural development, population growth, and overgrazing are the main drivers of soil erosion.

scholarly journals Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070)

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (36) ◽  
pp. 21994-22001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pasquale Borrelli ◽  
David A. Robinson ◽  
Panos Panagos ◽  
Emanuele Lugato ◽  
Jae E. Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Water Erosion ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Current Conservation ◽  
River Bank ◽  
Global Soil ◽  
Soil Erosion By Water

Soil erosion is a major global soil degradation threat to land, freshwater, and oceans. Wind and water are the major drivers, with water erosion over land being the focus of this work; excluding gullying and river bank erosion. Improving knowledge of the probable future rates of soil erosion, accelerated by human activity, is important both for policy makers engaged in land use decision-making and for earth-system modelers seeking to reduce uncertainty on global predictions. Here we predict future rates of erosion by modeling change in potential global soil erosion by water using three alternative (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios. Global predictions rely on a high spatial resolution Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE)-based semiempirical modeling approach (GloSEM). The baseline model (2015) predicts global potential soil erosion rates of43−7+9.2Pg yr−1, with current conservation agriculture (CA) practices estimated to reduce this by ∼5%. Our future scenarios suggest that socioeconomic developments impacting land use will either decrease (SSP1-RCP2.6–10%) or increase (SSP2-RCP4.5 +2%, SSP5-RCP8.5 +10%) water erosion by 2070. Climate projections, for all global dynamics scenarios, indicate a trend, moving toward a more vigorous hydrological cycle, which could increase global water erosion (+30 to +66%). Accepting some degrees of uncertainty, our findings provide insights into how possible future socioeconomic development will affect soil erosion by water using a globally consistent approach. This preliminary evidence seeks to inform efforts such as those of the United Nations to assess global soil erosion and inform decision makers developing national strategies for soil conservation.

scholarly journals A Framework for the Land Use Change Dynamics Model Compatible with RCMs

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiangzheng Deng ◽  
Jiyuan Liu ◽  
Yingzhi Lin ◽  
Chenchen Shi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Production Factor ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Change Dynamics ◽  
Simulation Results

A framework of land use change dynamics (LUCD) model compatible with regional climate models (RCMs) is introduced in this paper. The LUCD model can be subdivided into three modules, namely, economic module, vegetation change module, and agent-based module. The economic module is capable of estimating the demand of land use changes in economic activities maximizing economic utility. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling framework is introduced and an approach to introduce land as a production factor into the economic module is proposed. The vegetation change module provides the probability of vegetation change driven by climate change. The agroecological zone (AEZ) model is supposed to be the optimal option for constructing the vegetation change module. The agent-based module identifies whether the land use change demand and vegetation change can be realized and provides the land use change simulation results which are the underlying surfaces needed by RCM. By importing the RCMs' simulation results of climate change and providing the simulation results of land use change for RCMs, the LUCD model would be compatible with RCMs. The coupled simulation system composed of LUCD and RCMs can be very effective in simulating the land surface processes and their changing patterns.

scholarly journals On-Site Water and Wind Erosion Experiments Reveal Relative Impact on Total Soil Erosion

Geosciences ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 478 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miriam Marzen ◽  
Thomas Iserloh ◽  
Wolfgang Fister ◽  
Manuel Seeger ◽  
Jesus Rodrigo-Comino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Wind Erosion ◽  
Soil Surface ◽  
Water Erosion ◽  
Relative Impact ◽  
Wheat Field ◽  
Total Soil ◽  
Potential Impact

The relative impact of water and wind on total erosion was investigated by means of an experimental-empirical study. Wind erosion and water erosion were measured at five different sites: (1) Mediterranean fallow, (2) Mediterranean orchard, (3) wheat field, (4) vineyard and (5) sand substrate. Mean erosion rates ranged from 1.55 to 618 g·m−2·h−1 for wind and from 0.09 to 133.90 g·m−2·h−1 for rain eroded material over all tested sites. Percentages (%) of eroded sediment for wind and rain, respectively, were found to be 2:98 on Mediterranean fallow, 11:89 on Mediterranean orchard, 3:97 on wheat field, 98:2 on vineyard and 99:1 on sand substrate. For the special case of soil surface crust destroyed by goat trampling, the measured values emphasize a strong potential impact of herding on total soil erosion. All sites produced erosion by wind and rain, and relations show that both erosive forces may have an impact on total soil erosion depending on site characteristics. The results indicate a strong need to focus on both wind and water erosion particularly concerning soils and substrates in vulnerable environments. Measured rates show a general potential erosion depending on recent developments of land use and climate change and may raise awareness of scientist, farmers and decision makers about potential impact of both erosive forces. Knowledge about exact relationship is key for an adapted land use management, which has great potential to mitigate degradation processes related to climate change.

CLIMATE- AND LAND USE-INDUCED RISKS TO WATERSHED SERVICES IN THE NYANDO RIVER BASIN, KENYA

2011 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 339-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
MWANGI GATHENYA ◽  
HOSEA MWANGI ◽  
RICHARD COE ◽  
JOSEPH SANG
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Surface Condition ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Minor Effect ◽  
Watershed Services

SUMMARYClimate change and land use change are two forces influencing the hydrology of watersheds and their ability to provide ecosystem services, such as clean and well-regulated streamflow and control of soil erosion and sediment yield. The Soil Water Assessment Tool, SWAT, a distributed, watershed-scale hydrological model was used with 18 scenarios of rainfall, temperature and infiltration capacity of land surface to investigate the spatial distribution of watershed services over the 3587 km2 Nyando basin in Western Kenya and how it is affected by these two forces. The total annual water yield varied over the 50 sub-basins from 35 to 600 mm while the annual sediment yield ranged from 0 to 104 tons ha−1. Temperature change had a relatively minor effect on streamflow and sediment yield compared to change in rainfall and land surface condition. Improvements in land surface condition that result in higher infiltration are an effective adaptation strategy to moderate the effects of climate change on supply of watershed services. Spatial heterogeneity in response to climate and land use change is large, and hence it is necessary to understand it if interventions to modify hydrology or adapt to climate change are to be effective.

scholarly journals MIROC-INTEG-LAND version 1: a global biogeochemical land surface model with human water management, crop growth, and land-use change

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 4713-4747
Author(s):  
Tokuta Yokohata ◽  
Tsuguki Kinoshita ◽  
Gen Sakurai ◽  
Yadu Pokhrel ◽  
Akihiko Ito ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Earth System

Abstract. Future changes in the climate system could have significant impacts on the natural environment and human activities, which in turn affect changes in the climate system. In the interaction between natural and human systems under climate change conditions, land use is one of the elements that play an essential role. On the one hand, future climate change will affect the availability of water and food, which may impact land-use change. On the other hand, human-induced land-use change can affect the climate system through biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects. To investigate these interrelationships, we developed MIROC-INTEG-LAND (MIROC INTEGrated LAND surface model version 1), an integrated model that combines the land surface component of global climate model MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) with water resources, crop production, land ecosystem, and land-use models. The most significant feature of MIROC-INTEG-LAND is that the land surface model that describes the processes of the energy and water balance, human water management, and crop growth incorporates a land use decision-making model based on economic activities. In MIROC-INTEG-LAND, spatially detailed information regarding water resources and crop yields is reflected in the prediction of future land-use change, which cannot be considered in the conventional integrated assessment models. In this paper, we introduce the details and interconnections of the submodels of MIROC-INTEG-LAND, compare historical simulations with observations, and identify various interactions between the submodels. By evaluating the historical simulation, we have confirmed that the model reproduces the observed states well. The future simulations indicate that changes in climate have significant impacts on crop yields, land use, and irrigation water demand. The newly developed MIROC-INTEG-LAND could be combined with atmospheric and ocean models to develop an integrated earth system model to simulate the interactions among coupled natural–human earth system components.

scholarly journals Global soil organic carbon removal by water erosion under climate change and land use change during 1850–2005 AD

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victoria Naipal ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Yilong Wang ◽  
Ronny Lauerwald ◽  
Bertrand Guenet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon

Abstract. The onset and expansion of agriculture has accelerated soil erosion by rainfall and runoff substantially, mobilizing vast quantities of soil organic carbon (SOC) globally. Studies show that at timescales of decennia to millennia this mobilized SOC can significantly alter previously estimated carbon emissions from land use change (LUC). However, a full understanding of the impact of erosion on land-atmosphere carbon exchange is still missing. The aim of our study is to better constrain the terrestrial carbon fluxes by developing methods compatible with Earth System Models (ESMs) in order to explicitly represent the links between soil erosion by rainfall and runoff and carbon dynamics. For this we use an emulator that represents the carbon cycle of a land surface model, in combination with the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation model. We applied this modeling framework at the global scale to evaluate the effects of potential soil erosion (soil removal only) in the presence of other perturbations of the carbon cycle: elevated atmospheric CO2, climate variability, and LUC. We found that over the period 1850–2005 AD acceleration of soil erosion leads to a total potential SOC removal flux of 100 Pg C of which 80 % occurs on agricultural, pasture and natural grass lands. Including soil erosion in the SOC-dynamics scheme results in a doubling of the cumulative loss of SOC over 1850–2005 due to the combined effects of climate variability, increasing atmospheric CO2 and LUC. This additional erosional loss decreases the cumulative global carbon sink on land by 5 Pg for this specific period, with the largest effects found for the tropics, where deforestation and agricultural expansion increased soil erosion rates significantly. We also show that the potential effects of soil erosion on the global SOC stocks cannot be ignored when compared to the effects of climate change or land use change on the carbon cycle. We conclude that it is necessary to include soil erosion in assessments of LUC and evaluations of the terrestrial carbon cycle.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Climate Change and Land Use Change Scenarios on Soil Erosion at the Minab Dam Watershed

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3353 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Reza Azimi Sardari ◽  
Ommolbanin Bazrafshan ◽  
Thomas Panagopoulos ◽  
Elham Rafiei Sardooi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Loss ◽  
Soil Cover ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Future Period ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Climate and land use change can influence susceptibility to erosion and consequently land degradation. The aim of this study was to investigate in the baseline and a future period, the land use and climate change effects on soil erosion at an important dam watershed occupying a strategic position on the narrow Strait of Hormuz. The future climate change at the study area was inferred using statistical downscaling and validated by the Canadian earth system model (CanESM2). The future land use change was also simulated using the Markov chain and artificial neural network, and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation was adopted to estimate soil loss under climate and land use change scenarios. Results show that rainfall erosivity (R factor) will increase under all Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The highest amount of R was 40.6 MJ mm ha−1 h−1y−1 in 2030 under RPC 2.6. Future land use/land cover showed rangelands turning into agricultural lands, vegetation cover degradation and an increased soil cover among others. The change of C and R factors represented most of the increase of soil erosion and sediment production in the study area during the future period. The highest erosion during the future period was predicted to reach 14.5 t ha−1 y−1, which will generate 5.52 t ha−1 y−1 sediment. The difference between estimated and observed sediment was 1.42 t ha−1 year−1 at the baseline period. Among the soil erosion factors, soil cover (C factor) is the one that watershed managers could influence most in order to reduce soil loss and alleviate the negative effects of climate change.

Prediction of future development of soil water erosion in small agricultural chatchment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvia Kohnová ◽  
Zuzana Németová ◽  
Zuzana Sabová
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Soil Water ◽  
Future Development ◽  
Soil Degradation ◽  
Water Erosion ◽  
Land Use Management ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
The Future

<p>It is well known that the impact of climate change affects various areas such as hydroclimatical factors which can cause increased occurrence of heavy precipitation events, ice melting, rising temperature or sea-level as a consequence of the global warming. It is assumed that the average surface temperature on Earth has increased by more than 1° Celsius since 1880. Climate change of the Earth has changed naturally over the past 650.000 years as a result of external factors that impact the climate. Despite of this fact, over the last 100 years is global warming strongly accelerated by different kind of human activities. One of those activities represents inappropriate land use management which is directly connected with soil degradation and soil erosion as the major threat of global soil degradation. The study presents the assessment of the future development of soil water erosion processes in one small agricultural catchment located in the Slovak Republic. The calculations were done based on the long-term simulation using the event and physically-based soil erosion model and one-hour rainfall events. The model used was calibrated and validated in the previous studies. The period time analysed covers 80 years, i.e., from 2020 until 2100. From the period the years where the most intensive rainfall events have occurred were chosen. The rainfall events were determined by climate CLM model. In order to compare the suitability of land-use management, three scenarios were created. They include three different types of land cover, i.e., agricultural crops (wheat and corn) and grassland. The modelled results show development of soil erosion in the future period up to 2100 together with the comparison of land use management in the area under research. The study predicts the future development of soil water erosion where the short term extreme rainfall events play key element as a crucial factor in the soil erosion assessment processes.</p><p> </p>

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