Evaluation of the reliability of the high-resolution WRF fire danger forecasts in Poland

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Gruszczynska ◽  
Alan Mandal ◽  
Grzegorz Nykiel ◽  
Tomasz Strzyzewski ◽  
Weronika Wronska ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Fire Service ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index

<p>Fires negatively affect the composition and structure of fauna and flora, as well as the quality of air, soils and water. They cause economic losses and pose a risk to human life. Poland is at the forefront of European countries in terms of forest fires. Therefore, Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute (IMWM-NIR) implemented fire danger forecast system based on high-resolution (2.5 km) Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. Forecasted meteorological data are used to calculate parameters of Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System: Fire Weather Index (FWI), Initial Spread Index (ISI), Buildup Index (BUI), Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC), Duff Moisture Code (DMC), and Drought Code (DC). Each parameter is presented in one of the classes corresponding to the fire danger – from low to extreme. In this way, a daily 24- and 48-hour fire danger forecasts are generated for the whole area of Poland and presented on IMWM-NIR meteorological website (meteo.imgw.pl).</p><p>In this presentation we show analyses of reliability of implemented FWI system. For this purpose, data reprocessing from March to September 2019 were made. Also data on fires occurrence on forest lands: time of occurrence, characteristics and location, from the resources of the State Fire Service were collected. Finally, for the selected period, we obtained a dataset of about 8 thousand events for which we assigned values of FWI parameters. Generally, based on our analysis, correlation between number of fires and averaged value of FWI amounted over 0.8. We found out, the correlation coefficient calculated for regions differ. The correlation is higher in central and northern Poland compared to the eastern part of the country, which also correspond to the number of fires. This may be related to the different forest structure - there is a higher proportion of broadleaf forests in the east. The comparison of 24- and 48-hour forecasts showed that they have similar reliability.</p>

Wildfires and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index system for the Daxing'anling region of China

2011 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 963 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaorui Tian ◽  
Douglas J. McRae ◽  
Jizhong Jin ◽  
Lifu Shu ◽  
Fengjun Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Coniferous Forest ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index

The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) system was evaluated for the Daxing'anling region of northern China for the 1987–2006 fire seasons. The FWI system reflected the regional fire danger and could be effectively used there in wildfire management. The various FWI system components were classified into classes (i.e. low to extreme) for fire conditions found in the region. A total of 81.1% of the fires occurred in the high, very high and extreme fire danger classes, in which 73.9% of the fires occurred in the spring (0.1, 9.5, 33.3 and 33.1% in March, April, May and June). Large wildfires greater than 200 ha in area (16.7% of the total) burnt 99.2% of the total burnt area. Lightning was the main ignition source for 57.1% of the total fires. Result show that forest fires mainly occurred in deciduous coniferous forest (61.3%), grass (23.9%) and deciduous broad leaved forest (8.0%). A bimodal fire season was detected, with peaks in May and October. The components of FWI system were good indicators of fire danger in the Daxing'anling region of China and could be used to build a working fire danger rating system for the region.

Sensitivity of the CFFDRS Fire Weather Index parameters for Indian weather conditions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anasuya Barik ◽  
Somnath Baidya Roy
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Climatic Zones ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Fire Model

<p>The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) is used to assess and predict the fire behavior in various forest ecosystems all over the world. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) module of the CFFDRS models the relationship between meteorology and forest fires. It was observed in our earlier study that the values of the FWI and its related parameters were considerably different from the other countries that use the model for their operational fire weather simulation. In this study we evaluate the model performance over Indian climate for a period of 10 years 1996-2005 under various weather scenarios. The daily meteorological data from ECMWF’s ERA5 reanalysis has been used as inputs to the fire model and the active fire data from MODIS Terra and Aqua satellites over the study period has been used to evaluate the capability of model to simulate fire danger. As India has many different climatic zones, we evaluated the behavior fire model parameters over 5 forest zones namely Himalayan, Deciduous, Western Ghats, Thorn forests and North Eastern forests based on the Roy et al. 2016 Land Use Land Cover data and Koppen climatic zones.  The analysis was narrowed down over only the forest areas of the zones so as to remove any chances of including the non-forest fires detected by the satellite. Results show that the FWI shows a strong correlation with forest fires if the model is correctly spun up and appropriately calibrated. A spin up time of minimum 60 days was found to be appropriate for stabilization of FWI components like Duff Moisture Code (DMC) and Drought Code (DC). Sensitivity studies showed that temperature and relative humidity are the key controlling factors of forest fires over India and that the parameters depict high interannual seasonality due to relatively lower values during the Indian monsoon season.</p><p>This study is one of the first attempts to use fire models to simulate fire behavior over India. It can serve as a launchpad for further work on fire hazard prediction and effects of climate change on fire hazard in India.</p>

scholarly journals Forest Fire Prediction in Northern Sumatera using Support Vector Machine Based on the Fire Weather Index

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darwis Robinson Manalu ◽  
Muhammad Zarlis ◽  
Herman Mawengkang ◽  
Opim Salim Sitompul
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Data Mining Approach ◽  
Prevention Activity

Forest fires are a major environmental issue, creating economical and ecological damage while dangering human lives. The investigation and survey for forest fire had been done in Aek Godang, Northern Sumatera, Indonesia. There is 26 hotspot in 2017 close to Aek Godang, North Sumatera, Indonesia. In this study, we use a data mining approach to train and test the data of forest fire and the Fire Weather Index (FWI) from meteorological data. The aim of this study to predict the burned area and identify the forest fire in Aek Godang areas, North Sumatera. The result of this study indicated that Fire fighting and prevention activity may be one reason for the observed lack of correlation. The fact that this dataset exists indicates that there is already some effort going into fire prevention.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF EFFICIENCY OF FIRE DANGER INDICES IN FOREST FIRE PREDICTION

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fillipe Tamiozzo Pereira Torres ◽  
Gumercindo Souza Lima ◽  
Sebastião Venâncio Martins ◽  
Sebastião Renato Valverde
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Satellite Images ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Allocation Of Resources ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
The City ◽  
Fire Danger Indices

ABSTRACT Despite the existence of different fire danger indices, the use of an inefficient index can lead to making wrong decisions on the appropriate procedures for preventing and fighting forest fires, while a trusted prediction index can help the most quantification and allocation of resources for prevention. Thereat, the objective of this study is to analyze the efficiency of Fire Weather Index (FWI), Logarithmic of Telicyn Index, Nesterov Index, cumulative indexes of precipitation - evaporation (P-EVAP) and evaporation / precipitation (EVAP/P), Monte Alegre Index (FMA) and Monte Alegre Changed Index (FMA+) in the prediction of forest fires for the city of Viçosa (MG). The indices were compared using the method known as Skill Score (SS) taking into account the days that the indexes pointed to the risk of events with focus fire identified by satellite images on the 01/01/2005 to 31/12/2014 period. According to the results, the Logarithm of Telicyn Index (0.53257) as the most efficient for the study area, followed by the indices EVAP/P (0.46553), P-EVAP (0.43724), Nesterov (0.40445), FWI (0.39213), FMA+(0.34595) and FMA (0.28982).

scholarly journals Fire Danger Harmonization Based on the Fire Weather Index for Transboundary Events between Portugal and Spain

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 1087
Author(s):  
Daniela Alves ◽  
Miguel Almeida ◽  
Domingos Xavier Viegas ◽  
Ilda Novo ◽  
M. Yolanda Luna
Keyword(s):  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Buffer Strip

Portugal and Spain have a cross-border cooperation protocol on wildfires response for a buffer strip of 25 km for each side of the border. In spite of the success of this collaboration, there are issues to be improved, since Portuguese and Spanish authorities use different methodologies to assess the daily fire danger. A methodology to harmonize fire danger and its interpretation by the Portuguese and Spanish Civil protection authorities in the transboundary buffer strip area is hereby presented. The fire danger index used is the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), which requires input from meteorological data and gives an indication of fire intensity. The fire danger class is an important decision support tool for preventing and fighting wildfires. Since the meaning of FWI values change from region-to-region according to its specific characteristics, a calibration process was performed based on statistical data of the daily FWI values, the number of fires and burned area between 2005 and 2013. The results of the FWI calibration and harmonization of the data for the five danger classes minimizes the fire danger discrepancies across the border. This methodology has the potential to be reproduced in other areas.

scholarly journals Fire Weather Index application in north-western Italy

2008 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Cane ◽  
N. Ciccarelli ◽  
F. Gottero ◽  
A. Francesetti ◽  
F. Pelfini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
North Western ◽  
Piedmont Region

Abstract. Piedmont region is located in North-Western Italy and is surrounded by the alpine chain and by the Appennines. The region is covered by a wide extension of forests, mainly in its mountain areas (the forests cover 36% of the regional territory). Forested areas are interested by wildfire events. In the period 1997–2005 Piedmont was interested by an average 387 forest fires per year, covering an average 1926 ha of forest per year. Meteorological conditions like long periods without precipitation contribute to create favourable conditions to forest fire development, while the fire propagation is made easier by the foehn winds, frequently interesting the region in winter and spring particularly. The meteorological danger index FWI (Fire Weather Index) was developed by Van Wagner (1987) for the Canadian Forestry Service, providing a complete description of the behaviour of the different forest components in response to the changing weather conditions. We applied the FWI to the Piedmont region on warning areas previously defined for fire management purposes. The meteorological data-set is based on the data of the very-dense non-GTS network of weather stations managed by Arpa Piemonte. The thresholds for the definition of a danger scenarios system were defined comparing historical FWI data with fires occurred on a 5 years period. The implementation of a prognostic FWI prediction system is planned for the early 2008, involving the use of good forecasts of weather parameters at the station locations obtained by the Multimodel SuperEnsemble post-processing technique.

scholarly journals Temporal variations and change in forest fire danger in Europe for 1960–2012

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1477-1490 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Venäläinen ◽  
N. Korhonen ◽  
O. Hyvärinen ◽  
N. Koutsias ◽  
F. Xystrakis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
National Level ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Current Season ◽  
Forest Fire Danger

Abstract. Understanding how fire weather danger indices changed in the past and how such changes affected forest fire activity is important in a changing climate. We used the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), calculated from two reanalysis data sets, ERA-40 and ERA Interim, to examine the temporal variation of forest fire danger in Europe in 1960–2012. Additionally, we used national forest fire statistics from Greece, Spain and Finland to examine the relationship between fire danger and fires. There is no obvious trend in fire danger for the time period covered by ERA-40 (1960–1999), whereas for the period 1980–2012 covered by ERA Interim, the mean FWI shows an increasing trend for southern and eastern Europe which is significant at the 99% confidence level. The cross correlations calculated at the national level in Greece, Spain and Finland between total area burned and mean FWI of the current season is of the order of 0.6, demonstrating the extent to which the current fire-season weather can explain forest fires. To summarize, fire risk is multifaceted, and while climate is a major determinant, other factors can contribute to it, either positively or negatively.

scholarly journals Proposal of an Iot Solution to Fire Risk Assessment Problem

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Bernardo ◽  
Pedro Silva ◽  
Paulo Fazendeiro
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Initial Response ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Keywords Internet ◽  
The Common ◽  
Civic Awareness ◽  
Municipal Level

Several of the fighting weaknesses evidenced by the forest fires tragedies of the last years are rooted in the disconnection between the current technical/scientific resources and the availability of the resulting information to operational agents on the ground. In order to be effective, a pre-emptive response to similar disasters must include the articulation between local authorities at municipal level - in prevention, preparedness and initial response - and the common citizen who is on the field, resides there, and has a deeper knowledge about the field of operation. This work intends to take a first step in the development of a tool that can serve to improve the civic awareness of all and to support the decision-making of the competent authorities. Keywords: Internet of things, Citizen science, Fire weather index

scholarly journals Comparison of Methods for the Assessment of Fire Danger in the Czech Republic

2019 ◽  
Vol 67 (5) ◽  
pp. 1285-1295 ◽  
Author(s):  
František Jurečka ◽  
Martin Možný ◽  
Jan Balek ◽  
Zdeněk Žalud ◽  
Miroslav Trnka
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Event ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Fire Danger Indices

The performance of fire indices based on weather variables was analyzed with a special focus on the Czech Republic. Three fire weather danger indices that are the basis of fire danger rating systems used in different parts of the world were assessed: the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), Australian Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and Finnish Forest Fire Index (FFI). The performance of the three fire danger indices was investigated at different scales and compared with actual fire events. First, the fire danger indices were analyzed for different land use types during the period 1956–2015. In addition, in the analysis, the three fire danger indices were compared with wildfire events during the period 2001–2015. The fire danger indices were also analyzed for the specific locality of the Bzenec area where a large forest fire event occurred in May 2012. The study also focused on the relationship between fire danger indices and forest fires during 2018 across the area of the Jihomoravský region. Comparison of the index values with real fires showed that the index values corresponded well with the occurrence of forest fires. The analysis of the year 2018 showed that the highest index values were reached on days with the greater fire occurrence. On days with 5 or 7 reported fires per day, the fire danger indices reached values between 3 and 4.

scholarly journals Calibration and evaluation of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System for improved wildland fire danger rating in the United Kingdom

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 1217-1237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark C. de Jong ◽  
Martin J. Wooster ◽  
Karl Kitchen ◽  
Cathy Manley ◽  
Rob Gazzard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Rating Systems ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk

Abstract. Wildfires in the United Kingdom (UK) pose a threat to people, infrastructure and the natural environment. During periods of particularly fire-prone weather, wildfires can occur simultaneously across large areas, placing considerable stress upon the resources of fire and rescue services. Fire danger rating systems (FDRSs) attempt to anticipate periods of heightened fire risk, primarily for early-warning and preparedness purposes. The UK FDRS, termed the Met Office Fire Severity Index (MOFSI), is based on the Fire Weather Index (FWI) component of the Canadian Forest FWI System. The MOFSI currently provides daily operational mapping of landscape fire danger across England and Wales using a simple thresholding of the final FWI component of the Canadian FWI System. However, it is known that the system has scope for improvement. Here we explore a climatology of the six FWI System components across the UK (i.e. extending to Scotland and Northern Ireland), calculated from daily 2km × 2km gridded numerical weather prediction data and supplemented by long-term meteorological station observations. We used this climatology to develop a percentile-based calibration of the FWI System, optimised for UK conditions. We find this approach to be well justified, as the values of the "raw" uncalibrated FWI components corresponding to a very "extreme" (99th percentile) fire danger situation vary by more than an order of magnitude across the country. Therefore, a simple thresholding of the uncalibrated component values (as is currently applied in the MOFSI) may incur large errors of omission and commission with respect to the identification of periods of significantly elevated fire danger. We evaluate our approach to enhancing UK fire danger rating using records of wildfire occurrence and find that the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC), Initial Spread Index (ISI) and FWI components of the FWI System generally have the greatest predictive skill for landscape fire activity across Great Britain, with performance varying seasonally and by land cover type. At the height of the most recent severe wildfire period in the UK (2 May 2011), 50 % of all wildfires occurred in areas where the FWI component exceeded the 99th percentile. When all wildfire events during the 2010–2012 period are considered, the 75th, 90th and 99th percentiles of at least one FWI component were exceeded during 85, 61 and 18 % of all wildfires respectively. Overall, we demonstrate the significant advantages of using a percentile-based calibration approach for classifying UK fire danger, and believe that our findings provide useful insights for future development of the current operational MOFSI UK FDRS.

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