Influence of a small and maximum lake and wetland extent on the simulated West African monsoon precipitation during the mid-Holocene

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nora Specht ◽  
Martin Claußen ◽  
Thomas Kleinen
Keyword(s):  
West African Monsoon ◽  
West African ◽  
Simulation Studies ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
The West ◽  
Small Lake ◽  
African Monsoon ◽  
Precipitation Increase ◽  
Wetland Extent ◽  
Potential Maximum

<p>During the mid-Holocene, an expansion of vegetation, lakes and wetlands over North Africa reinforced the West African monsoon precipitation increase that was initiated by changes in the orbital forcing. Sedimentary records reflect these surface changes, however, they provide only limited spatial and temporal information about the size and distribution of mid-Holocene lakes and wetlands. Previous simulation studies that investigated the influence of mid-Holocene lakes and wetlands on the West African monsoon precipitation, prescribed either a small lake and wetland extent or focusing on mega-lakes only. In contrast to these simulation studies, we investigate the<strong> </strong>range of simulated West African monsoon precipitation changes caused by a small and a potential maximum lake and wetland extent during the mid-Holocene.</p><p>Therefore, four mid-Holocene sensitivity experiments are conducted using the atmosphere model ICON-A and the land model JSBACH4 at 160 km resolution. The simulations have a 30-year evaluation period and only differ in their lake and wetland extent over North Africa: (1) pre-industrial lakes, (2) small lake extent, (3) maximum lake extent and (4) maximum wetland extent. The small lake extent is given by the reconstruction map of Hoelzmann et al. (1998) and the potential maximum lake and wetland extent is given by a model derived map of Tegen et al. (2002).</p><p>The simulation results reveal that the maximum lake extent shifts the Sahel precipitation threshold (> 200 mm/year) about 3 ° further northward than the small lake extent. The major precipitation differences between the small and maximum lake extent results from the lakes over the West Sahara. Additionally, the maximum wetland extent causes a stronger West African monsoon precipitation increase than the equally large maximum lake extent, particularly at higher latitudes.</p>

scholarly journals On What Scale Can We Predict the Agronomic Onset of the West African Monsoon?

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (4) ◽  
pp. 1571-1589 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rory G. J. Fitzpatrick ◽  
Caroline L. Bain ◽  
Peter Knippertz ◽  
John H. Marsham ◽  
Douglas J. Parker
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Noise Analysis ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
West African ◽  
New Method ◽  
The West ◽  
African Monsoon ◽  
Spatial Consistency ◽  
Local Stakeholders ◽  
Local Rainfall

Abstract Accurate prediction of the commencement of local rainfall over West Africa can provide vital information for local stakeholders and regional planners. However, in comparison with analysis of the regional onset of the West African monsoon, the spatial variability of the local monsoon onset has not been extensively explored. One of the main reasons behind the lack of local onset forecast analysis is the spatial noisiness of local rainfall. A new method that evaluates the spatial scale at which local onsets are coherent across West Africa is presented. This new method can be thought of as analogous to a regional signal against local noise analysis of onset. This method highlights regions where local onsets exhibit a quantifiable degree of spatial consistency (denoted local onset regions or LORs). It is found that local onsets exhibit a useful amount of spatial agreement, with LORs apparent across the entire studied domain; this is in contrast to previously found results. Identifying local onset regions and understanding their variability can provide important insight into the spatial limit of monsoon predictability. While local onset regions can be found over West Africa, their size is much smaller than the scale found for seasonal rainfall homogeneity. A potential use of local onset regions is presented that shows the link between the annual intertropical front progression and local agronomic onset.

scholarly journals A Lagrangian perspective on stable water isotopes during the West African Monsoon

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Johannes Diekmann ◽  
Matthias Schneider ◽  
Peter Knippertz ◽  
Andries Jan de Vries ◽  
Stephan Pfahl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West African Monsoon ◽  
West African ◽  
Water Isotopes ◽  
Stable Water Isotopes ◽  
The West ◽  
African Monsoon

A hydrological onset and withdrawal index for the West African monsoon

2008 ◽  
Vol 96 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 179-189 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. A. Dalu ◽  
M. Gaetani ◽  
M. Baldi
Keyword(s):  
West African Monsoon ◽  
West African ◽  
The West ◽  
African Monsoon

scholarly journals Coupled Land–Atmosphere Intraseasonal Variability of the West African Monsoon in a GCM

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (21) ◽  
pp. 5557-5571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sally L. Lavender ◽  
Christopher M. Taylor ◽  
Adrian J. Matthews
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
West African ◽  
The West ◽  
African Monsoon ◽  
Surface Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Fully Coupled

Abstract Recent observational studies have suggested a role for soil moisture and land–atmosphere coupling in the 15-day westward-propagating mode of intraseasonal variability in the West African monsoon. This hypothesis is investigated with a set of three atmospheric general circulation model experiments. 1) When soil moisture is fully coupled with the atmospheric model, the 15-day mode of land–atmosphere variability is clearly identified. Precipitation anomalies lead soil moisture anomalies by 1–2 days, similar to the results from satellite observations. 2) To assess whether soil moisture is merely a passive response to the precipitation, or an active participant in this mode, the atmospheric model is forced with a 15-day westward-propagating cycle of regional soil moisture anomalies based on the fully coupled mode. Through a reduced surface sensible heat flux, the imposed wet soil anomalies induce negative low-level temperature anomalies and increased pressure (a cool high). An anticyclonic circulation then develops around the region of wet soil, enhancing northward moisture advection and precipitation to the west. Hence, in a coupled framework, this soil moisture–forced precipitation response would provide a self-consistent positive feedback on the westward-propagating soil moisture anomaly and implies an active role for soil moisture. 3) In a final sensitivity experiment, soil moisture is again externally prescribed but with all intraseasonal fluctuations suppressed. In the absence of soil moisture variability there are still pronounced surface sensible heat flux variations, likely due to cloud changes, and the 15-day westward-propagating precipitation signal is still present. However, it is not as coherent as in the previous experiments when interaction with soil moisture was permitted. Further examination of the soil moisture forcing experiment in GCM experiment 2 shows that this precipitation mode becomes phase locked to the imposed soil moisture anomalies. Hence, the 15-day westward-propagating mode in the West African monsoon can exist independently of soil moisture; however, soil moisture and land–atmosphere coupling act to feed back on the atmosphere and further enhance and organize it.

scholarly journals Impact of Assimilated Precipitation-Sensitive Radiances on the NU-WRF Simulation of the West African Monsoon

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (9) ◽  
pp. 3881-3900 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Q. Zhang ◽  
T. Matsui ◽  
S. Cheung ◽  
M. Zupanski ◽  
C. Peters-Lidard
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
West African ◽  
Full Description ◽  
The West ◽  
African Monsoon ◽  
State Dependent

Abstract This work assimilates multisensor precipitation-sensitive microwave radiance observations into a storm-scale NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) Model simulation of the West African monsoon. The analysis consists of a full description of the atmospheric states and a realistic cloud and precipitation distribution that is consistent with the observed dynamic and physical features. The analysis shows an improved representation of monsoon precipitation and its interaction with dynamics over West Africa. Most significantly, assimilation of precipitation-affected microwave radiance has a positive impact on the distribution of precipitation intensity and also modulates the propagation of cloud precipitation systems associated with the African easterly jet. Using an ensemble-based assimilation technique that allows state-dependent forecast error covariance among dynamical and microphysical variables, this work shows that the assimilation of precipitation-sensitive microwave radiances over the West African monsoon rainband enables initialization of storms. These storms show the characteristics of continental tropical convection that enhance the connection between tropical waves and organized convection systems.

scholarly journals Intraseasonal Land–Atmosphere Coupling in the West African Monsoon

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (24) ◽  
pp. 6636-6648 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher M. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
West African ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
The West ◽  
African Monsoon ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Via its impact on surface fluxes, subseasonal variability in soil moisture has the potential to feed back on regional atmospheric circulations, and thereby rainfall. An understanding of this feedback mechanism in the climate system has been hindered by the lack of observations at an appropriate scale. In this study, passive microwave data at 10.65 GHz from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite are used to identify soil moisture variability during the West African monsoon. A simple model of surface sensible heat flux is developed from these data and is used, alongside atmospheric analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), to provide a new interpretation of monsoon variability on time scales of the order of 15 days. During active monsoon periods, the data indicate extensive areas of wet soil in the Sahel. The impact of the resulting weak surface heat fluxes is consistent in space and time with low-level variations in atmospheric heating and vorticity, as depicted in the ECMWF analyses. The surface-induced vorticity structure is similar to previously documented intraseasonal variations in the monsoon flow, notably a westward-propagating vortex at low levels. In those earlier studies, the variability in low-level flow was considered to be the critical factor in producing intraseasonal fluctuations in rainfall. The current analysis shows that this vortex can be regarded as an effect of the rainfall (via surface hydrology) as well as a cause.

scholarly journals Coupled Model Simulations of the West African Monsoon System: Twentieth- and Twenty-First-Century Simulations

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (15) ◽  
pp. 3681-3703 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerry H. Cook ◽  
Edward K. Vizy
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
West African ◽  
First Century ◽  
Gulf Of Guinea ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
The West ◽  
African Monsoon ◽  
The Third ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract The ability of coupled GCMs to correctly simulate the climatology and a prominent mode of variability of the West African monsoon is evaluated, and the results are used to make informed decisions about which models may be producing more reliable projections of future climate in this region. The integrations were made available by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The evaluation emphasizes the circulation characteristics that support the precipitation climatology, and the physical processes of a “rainfall dipole” variability mode that is often associated with dry conditions in the Sahel when SSTs in the Gulf of Guinea are anomalously warm. Based on the quality of their twentieth-century simulations over West Africa in summer, three GCMs are chosen for analysis of the twenty-first century integrations under various assumptions about future greenhouse gas increases. Each of these models behaves differently in the twenty-first-century simulations. One model simulates severe drying across the Sahel in the later part of the twenty-first century, while another projects quite wet conditions throughout the twenty-first century. In the third model, warming in the Gulf of Guinea leads to more modest drying in the Sahel due to a doubling of the number of anomalously dry years by the end of the century. An evaluation of the physical processes that cause these climate changes, in the context of the understanding about how the system works in the twentieth century, suggests that the third model provides the most reasonable projection of the twenty-first-century climate.

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