Typical Circulation Patterns and Associated Mechanisms for Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events over Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley during 1981–2020

Persistent heavy rainfall events (PHREs) over the Yangtze–Huaihe River Valley (YHRV) during 1981–2020 are classified into three types (type-A, type-B and type-C) according to pattern correlation. The characteristics of the synoptic systems for the PHREs and their possible development mechanisms are investigated. The anomalous cyclonic disturbance over the southern part of the YHRV during type-A events is primarily maintained and intensified by the propagation of Rossby wave energy originating from the northeast Atlantic in the mid–upper troposphere and the northward propagation of Rossby wave packets from the western Pacific in the mid–lower troposphere. The zonal propagation of Rossby wave packets and the northward propagation of Rossby wave packets during type-B events are more coherent than those for type-A events, which induces eastward propagation of stronger anomaly centers of geopotential height from the northeast Atlantic Ocean to the YHRV and a meridional anomaly in geopotential height over the Asian continent. Type-C events have “two ridges and one trough” in the high latitudes of the Eurasian continent, but the anomalous intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the trough of the YHRV region are weaker than those for type-A and type-B events. The composite synoptic circulation of four PHREs in 2020 is basically consistent with that of the corresponding PHRE type. The location of the South Asian high (SAH) in three of the PHREs in 2020 moves eastward as in the composite of the three types, but the position of the WPSH of the four PHREs is clearly westward and northward. Two water vapor conveyor belts and two cold air conveyor belts are tracked during the four PHREs in 2020, but the water vapor path from the western Pacific is not seen, which may be caused by the westward extension of the WPSH.

Improvement of Heavy Rainfall Simulated with SST Adjustment Associated with Mesoscale Convective Complexes Related to Severe Flash Flood in Luwu, Sulawesi, Indonesia

Flash flooding is an important issue as it has a devastating impact over a short time and in a limited area. However, predicting flash floods is challenging because they are connected to convection systems that rapidly evolve and require a high-resolution forecasting system. In addition, modeling a case study of a mesoscale convective complex (MCC) is the key to improving our understanding of the heavy rainfall systems that trigger flash floods. In this study, we aim at improving modeling skills to simulate a heavy rainfall system related to flash-flood-producing MCCs. We simulated a heavy rainfall event related to a severe flash flood in Luwu, Sulawesi, Indonesia, on 13 July 2020. This flood was preceded by persistent heavy rainfall from 11 to 13 July 2020. In this case, we investigated the role of sea surface temperature (SST) in producing the persistent heavy rainfall over the region. Therefore, we explore the physical and dynamic processes that caused the heavy rainfall using a convection-permitting model with 1 km resolution and an experiment comparing the situation with and without updated SST. The results show that the heavy rainfall was modulated by the development of a pair of MCCs during the night. The pair of MCCs was triggered by a meso-low-pressure system with an anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly over the Makassar Strait and was maintained by the warm front passing between the sea and land over central Sulawesi. This front was characterized by moist–warm and cold–dry low-level air, which may have helped extend the lifetime of the MCCs. The north-westward propagation of the MCCs was due to the interaction between predominantly a south-easterly monsoon and SST anomalies. This study suggested that the long-lived (>10 h) MCCs (>80,000 km2 cloud shield) and persistent precipitation are reproduced well in the updated SST scenario in the WRF model. This relatively simple technique in the running model provides a new strategy for improving flash flood forecasting by better predicting rainfall as an input in the hydrological model. Our findings also indicated a long-lived MCC maintained by back-building mechanisms from night to morning inland as an exceptional MCC, which does not correspond to a previous study.

Two Distinct Types of 10-30-day Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events over the Yangtze River Valley

Large-scale circulation anomalies associated with 10-30-day filtered persistent heavy rainfall events (PHREs) over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (MLYV) in boreal summer for the period of 1961-2017 were investigated. Two distinct types of PHREs were identified based on configurations of anomalies in western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and South Asian High (SAH) during the peak wet phase. One type named as PSAH is characterized by eastward extension of the SAH while the other named as NSAH is featured by westward retreat of the SAH, and they both exhibit westward extension of the WPSH. Both types of PHREs are dominated by Mei-yu frontal systems. The lower-level circulation anomalies play a crucial role in initiating rainfall but through different processes. Prior to rainfall occurrence, a strong anticyclonic circulation anomaly is over the western North Pacific (WNP) for the PSAH events and the related southwesterly wind anomaly prevails over the south-eastern China, which advects moisture into the MLYV, moistens the boundary layer, and induces atmospheric convective instability. For the NSAH events, the WNP anticyclonic circulation is weak while a strong northerly wind is observed north of the MLYV. It brings cold air mass southward, favoring initiating frontal rainfall over the MLYV. The formation of upper-level circulation anomalies over the MLYV is primarily due to the shift of anomalous circulations from mid-high latitudes. After the rainfall generation, the precipitation would influence the lower- and upper-level circulation anomalies.

Characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Complexes that Triggered Heavy Rainfall Related to Severe Flash Flood in Luwu, Sulawesi, Indonesia

A severe flash flood hit Luwu, Sulawesi, Indonesia, on 13 July 2020. This flood was preceded by persistent heavy rainfall from 11 to 13 July 2020. In this study, we explore both the physical and dynamical processes that caused the heavy rainfall using a convection-permitting model with 1-km resolution. The heavy rainfall was modulated by the development of a pair of Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs) during the night. The pair of MCCs was triggered by an anti-cyclonic vorticity anomaly over the Makassar Strait and was maintained by the warm front passing between the sea and land over central Sulawesi. This front was characterized by moist-warm and cold-dry low-level air, which may have helped to extend the lifetime of the MCCs. The northwestward propagation of the MCCs was due to the interaction between predominantly southeasterly monsoon and sea surface temperature anomalies.

Multiscale Causes of Persistent Heavy Rainfall in the Meiyu Period over the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

Based on observation data supplied by the Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA) and reanalysis datasets provided by the ECMWF, the multiscale causes of persistent heavy rainfall events (PHREs) that occurred from 1979 to 2018 during Meiyu periods over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) are investigated. During Meiyu periods, precipitation shows obvious interannual variabilities. In PHRE years, the contribution rate of persistent heavy rainfall to the total precipitation is approximately 57%. Precipitation also shows significant synoptic-scale (less than 10 days) characteristics. Through the quantitative diagnosis of interactions among background-scale (greater than 30 days), quasi-biweekly-scale (10–30-days), and synoptic-scale variables, the possible causes of PHREs are explored. The results reveal that the difference in precipitation intensity between PHRE years and non-PHRE years is determined by the background water vapor, background wind and synoptic-scale wind conditions. In PHRE years, the prevailing background southwesterly winds from lower latitudes provide more background water vapor, and more mean kinetic energy is converted to perturbation energy. Moreover, the active synoptic-scale oscillations from higher latitudes and the convergence of Rossby wave disturbance energy over the MLYR could also cause the occurrence and maintenance of PHREs during Meiyu periods. The multiscale causes and corresponding circulation patterns in 2020 PHREs are similar to PHREs years.

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of East Asia Atmospheric Rivers and their Atmospheric Steering and Climatic Regulation

<p>The identification, climatic modulation and hydrological impact of Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) is an emergent scientific topic in recent years. ARs are important and yet understudied for East Asia (EA). We use our new AR identification algorithm (Pan & Lu, 2019), to build up a comprehensive AR catalog for this region for the first time.  Interesting patterns are found: (1) there is a dominant AR route, originating from the Arabian Sea, crossing over the Bay of Bengal and Indochina, South China Sea (SCS) and Southeast China (SEC), and terminating in the western North Pacific; and (2) a nine-stage annual pattern in the climatological frequency is revealed.  Stage 1: mid-Mar to mid-May, the formation of Western North Pacific Subtropical Height (WNPSH) near the SCS steers and confines AR in its northwest flank over SEC.  Stages 2-5: during the monsoon season from mid-May to late-Aug, the evolution of AR follow the intra-seasonal progression of Asia-Pacific monsoon (including South Asian monsoon, East Asian monsoon and western North Pacific monsoon. Stages 6-9: late-Aug to mid-Mar, ARs leave EA and only occur over the North Pacific. Over all stages, we find the contribution of AR grows significantly with more extreme rainfall (i.e., from the annual rainfall, heavy rainfall, persistent heavy rainfall to large spatial extent persistent heavy rainfall), especially in spring and early-monsoon season. This emphasizes ARs’ significant role in extreme or catastrophic rainfall events. Intriguingly, divergence of AR trajectories (also in their characteristics) occurs along the extratropical direction, and such divergent features have spatially heterogenous dependence on the leading modes of a collection of steering atmospheric and regulating climatic signals. Large divergence indicates high sensitivity of AR to transient steering; while small divergence promises high predictability of ARs, thus their associated hydrological impacts.</p>