The northern and the eastern Adriatic Sea floods: connecting the extreme sea-levels to cyclone pathways

Mapping Intimacies ◽

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8201 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Tihana Dević ◽

Jadranka Šepić ◽

Darko Koračin

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Tide Gauge ◽

Middle Eastern ◽

Origin Time ◽

Northern Adriatic ◽

Sea Levels ◽

North West ◽

Mediterranean Cyclones ◽

Extreme Sea Levels ◽

The Moment

An objective method for tracking pathways of cyclone centres over Europe was developed and applied to the ERA-Interim reanalysis atmospheric data (1979-2014). The method was used to determine trajectories of those Mediterranean cyclones which generated extreme sea levels along the northern and the eastern Adriatic coast during the period from 1979 to 2014. Extreme events were defined as periods during which sea level was above 99.95 percentile value of time series of hourly sea-level data measured at the Venice (northern Adriatic), Split (middle eastern Adriatic) and Dubrovnik (south-eastern Adriatic) tide-gauge stations. The cyclone pathways were tracked backwards from the moment closest to the moment of maximum sea level up to the cyclone origin time, or at most, up to 72 hours prior the occurrence of the sea-level maximum.Our results point out that extreme sea levels in Venice normally appear during synoptic situations in which a cyclone centre is located to the south-west and north-west of Venice, i.e., when it can be found over the Gulf of Genoa, or the Alps. On the contrary, extreme sea levels in Dubrovnik are usually associates with cyclone centres above the middle Adriatic, whereas floods in Split seem to appear during both above-described types of situations.Occurrence times and intensity of cyclones and extreme sea-levels was further associated with the NAO index. It has been shown that the deepest cyclones and corresponding extreme floods tend to occur during the negative NAO phase. &#160;&#160;

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Estimating contribution of high-frequency sea-level oscillations to the extreme sea levels in the Adriatic Sea

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4602 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Krešimir Ruić ◽

Jadranka Šepić ◽

Maja Karlović ◽

Iva Međugorac

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Sea Level ◽

High Frequency ◽

Adriatic Sea ◽

Tide Gauge ◽

Data Series ◽

Sea Levels ◽

Short Period ◽

Extreme Sea Levels ◽

Sea Level Oscillations

Extreme sea levels are known to hit the Adriatic Sea and to occasionally cause floods that produce severe material damage. Whereas the contribution of longer-period (T > 2 h) sea-level oscillations to the phenomena has been well researched, the contribution of the shorter period (T <&#160;2 h) oscillations is yet to be determined. With this aim, data of 1-min sampling resolution were collected for 20 tide gauges, 10 located at the Italian (north and west) and 10 at the Croatian (east) Adriatic coast. Analyses were done on time series of 3 to 15 years length, with the latest data coming from 2020, and with longer data series available for the Croatian coast. Sea level data were thoroughly checked, and spurious data were removed.&#160;For each station, extreme sea levels were defined as events during which sea level surpasses its 99.9 percentile value. The contribution of short-period oscillations to extremes was then estimated from corresponding high-frequency (T < 2 h) series. Additionally, for four Croatian tide gauge stations (Rovinj, Bakar, Split, and Dubrovnik), for period of 1956-2004, extreme sea levels were also determined from the hourly sea level time series, with the contribution of short-period oscillations visually estimated from the original tide gauge charts.&#160;&#160;Spatial and temporal distribution of contribution of short-period sea-level oscillations to the extreme sea level in the Adriatic were estimated. It was shown that short-period sea-level oscillation can significantly contribute to the overall extremes and should be considered when estimating flooding levels.&#160;

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Multiple drivers of extreme sea levels in the northern Adriatic Sea

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8727 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Christian Ferrarin ◽

Piero Lionello ◽

Mirko Orlic ◽

Fabio Raicich ◽

Gianfausto Salvadori

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Adriatic Sea ◽

Driving Factors ◽

Northern Adriatic Sea ◽

Relative Sea Level ◽

Northern Adriatic ◽

Sea Levels ◽

Extreme Sea Levels ◽

Relative Sea Level Rise

Extreme sea levels at the coast result from the combination of astronomical tides with atmospherically forced fluctuations at multiple time scales. Seiches, river floods, waves, inter-annual and inter-decadal dynamics and relative sea-level rise can also contribute to the total sea level. While tides are usually well described and predicted, the effect of the different atmospheric contributions to the sea level and their trends are still not well understood. Meso-scale atmospheric disturbances, synoptic-scale phenomena and planetary atmospheric waves (PAW) act at different temporal and spatial scales and thus generate sea-level disturbances at different frequencies. In this study, we analyze the 1872-2019 sea-level time series in Venice (northern Adriatic Sea, Italy) to investigate the relative role of the different driving factors in the extreme sea levels distribution. The adopted approach consists in 1) isolating the different contributions to the sea level by applying least-squares fitting and Fourier decomposition; 2) performing a multivariate statistical analysis which enables the dependencies among driving factors and their joint probability of occurrence to be described; 3) analyzing temporal changes in extreme sea levels and extrapolating possible future tendencies. The results highlight the fact that the most extreme sea levels are mainly dominated by the non-tidal residual, while the tide plays a secondary role. The non-tidal residual of the extreme sea levels is attributed mostly to PAW surge and storm surge, with the latter component becoming dominant for the most extreme events. The results of temporal evolution analysis confirm previous studies according to which the relative sea-level rise is the major driver of the increase in the frequency of floods in Venice over the last century. However, also long term variability in the storm activity impacted the frequency and intensity of extreme sea levels and have contributed to an increase of floods in Venice during the fall and winter months of the last three decades.

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Atmospheric circulation changes and their impact on extreme sea levels around Australia

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-19-1067-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 19 (5) ◽

pp. 1067-1086 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Frank Colberg ◽

Kathleen L. McInnes ◽

Julian O'Grady ◽

Ron Hoeke

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Tide Gauge ◽

Austral Summer ◽

Sea Level Changes ◽

Sea Level Variability ◽

Sea Levels ◽

Extreme Sea Levels ◽

Coastal Sea

Abstract. Projections of sea level rise (SLR) will lead to increasing coastal impacts during extreme sea level events globally; however, there is significant uncertainty around short-term coastal sea level variability and the attendant frequency and severity of extreme sea level events. In this study, we investigate drivers of coastal sea level variability (including extremes) around Australia by means of historical conditions as well as future changes under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). To do this, a multi-decade hindcast simulation is validated against tide gauge data. The role of tide–surge interaction is assessed and found to have negligible effects on storm surge characteristic heights over most of the coastline. For future projections, 20-year-long simulations are carried out over the time periods 1981–1999 and 2081–2099 using atmospheric forcing from four CMIP5 climate models. Changes in extreme sea levels are apparent, but there are large inter-model differences. On the southern mainland coast all models simulated a southward movement of the subtropical ridge which led to a small reduction in sea level extremes in the hydrodynamic simulations. Sea level changes over the Gulf of Carpentaria in the north are largest and positive during austral summer in two out of the four models. In these models, changes to the northwest monsoon appear to be the cause of the sea level response. These simulations highlight a sensitivity of this semi-enclosed gulf to changes in large-scale dynamics in this region and indicate that further assessment of the potential changes to the northwest monsoon in a larger multi-model ensemble should be investigated, together with the northwest monsoon's effect on extreme sea levels.

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Atmospheric Circulation Changes and their Impact on Extreme Sea Levels around Australia

10.5194/nhess-2018-64 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Frank Colberg ◽

Kathleen L. McInnes ◽

Julian O'Grady ◽

Ron K. Hoeke

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Atmospheric Circulation ◽

Climate Models ◽

Tide Gauge ◽

Austral Summer ◽

Sea Level Variability ◽

Sea Levels ◽

Extreme Sea Levels ◽

Coastal Sea ◽

Circulation Changes

Abstract. Projections of sea level rise (SLR) will lead to increasing coastal impacts during extreme sea level events globally, however, there is significant uncertainty around short-term coastal sea level variability and the attendant frequency and severity of extreme sea level events. In this study, we investigate drivers of coastal sea level variability (including extremes) around Australia by means of historical conditions as well as future changes under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP8.5). To do this, a multi-decade hindcast simulation is validated against tide gauge data. The role of tide-surge interaction is assessed and found to have negligible effects on storm surge characteristic heights over most of the coastline. For future projections, twenty-year long simulations are carried out over the time periods 1981–1999 and 2081–2099 using atmospheric forcing from four CMIP5 climate models. Results provide insights into how future atmospheric circulation changes may impact Australia's coastal zone and highlight regions of potential sensitivity to atmospheric circulation changes. Areas of note are the Gulf of Carpentaria in the north where changes to the northwest monsoon could lead to relatively large increases in extreme sea levels during Austral summer. For the southern mainland coast the simulated scenarios suggest that a southward movement of the subtropical ridge leads to a small reduction in sea level extremes.

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Complex Extreme Sea Levels Prediction Analysis: Karachi Coast Case Study

Entropy ◽

10.3390/e22050549 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 22 (5) ◽

pp. 549

Author(s):

Faisal Ahmed Khan ◽

Tariq Masood Ali Khan ◽

Ali Najah Ahmed ◽

Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan ◽

Mohsen Sherif ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Water Level ◽

Sea Level ◽

Tide Gauge ◽

Probability Method ◽

Annual Maximum ◽

Tide Gauge Data ◽

Sea Levels ◽

Extreme Sea Levels ◽

Gauge Data ◽

Pakistan Coast

In this study, the analysis of the extreme sea level was carried out by using 10 years (2007–2016) of hourly tide gauge data of Karachi port station along the Pakistan coast. Observations revealed that the magnitudes of the tides usually exceeded the storm surges at this station. The main observation for this duration and the subsequent analysis showed that in June 2007 a tropical Cyclone “Yemyin” hit the Pakistan coast. The joint probability method (JPM) and the annual maximum method (AMM) were used for statistical analysis to find out the return periods of different extreme sea levels. According to the achieved results, the AMM and JPM methods erre compatible with each other for the Karachi coast and remained well within the range of 95% confidence. For the JPM method, the highest astronomical tide (HAT) of the Karachi coast was considered as the threshold and the sea levels above it were considered extreme sea levels. The 10 annual observed sea level maxima, in the recent past, showed an increasing trend for extreme sea levels. In the study period, the increment rates of 3.6 mm/year and 2.1 mm/year were observed for mean sea level and extreme sea level, respectively, along the Karachi coast. Tidal analysis, for the Karachi tide gauge data, showed less dependency of the extreme sea levels on the non-tidal residuals. By applying the Merrifield criteria of mean annual maximum water level ratio, it was found that the Karachi coast was tidally dominated and the non-tidal residual contribution was just 10%. The examination of the highest water level event (13 June 2014) during the study period, further favored the tidal dominance as compared to the non-tidal component along the Karachi coast.

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Rescuing historical sea level data using a citizen science platform

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3211 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Andrew Matthews ◽

Elizabeth Bradshaw ◽

Joanne Williams

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Citizen Science ◽

Character Recognition ◽

Optical Character Recognition ◽

Tide Gauge ◽

Digital Data ◽

Tide Gauge Records ◽

Sea Levels ◽

North West ◽

The Uk

Tide gauge records provide the main source of data behind the study of sea level change over the past 200 years. However, our understanding of changes in mean sea levels, tides and extremes is limited by the length of the records available. A large amount of potential data exists in libraries and archives across the world in the form of historical tidal ledgers and charts that have never been converted into digital data suitable for use in scientific studies. The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission&#8217;s Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) has been encouraging organisations to locate, catalogue and digitise such material.Unfortunately, the processes required to extract usable data from charts and ledgers is slow, laborious work. Promising attempts have been made to automate this using optical character recognition, but these are often hindered by changes in document formats, and hard to decipher handwriting, particularly in older records.A possible solution is to use online citizen science platforms such as Zooniverse that bring together scientists and volunteers in projects as diverse as searching for supernovae, identifying whale sounds, transcribing manuscripts from the archives of natural history museums, and helping train algorithms that analyse images of cancer cells. Last year, 5.25 million rainfall observations from the UK were digitised in a few weeks by about 16,000 volunteers.Here we present a citizen science project to digitise 16,000 images of ledgers recording 15-minute observations of sea level from North West England that is currently in progress. We describe the process the volunteers undertake, the lessons learnt from early testing, and an overview of the results obtained so far. Finally, we discuss some potential extensions of the project, including the possibility of using the platform to digitise tidal charts.

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Synthetically generated low-pressure systems to support studies of sea level extremes

10.5194/ems2021-132 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Mika Rantanen ◽

Jani Särkkä ◽

Jani Räihä ◽

Matti Kämäräinen ◽

Kirsti Jylhä

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Power Plants ◽

Tide Gauge ◽

Gaussian Function ◽

Low Pressure ◽

Tide Gauge Records ◽

Pressure System ◽

Sea Levels ◽

Input Parameters ◽

Low Pressure Systems

Extremely high sea levels on the Finnish coast are typically caused by close passages of extratropical cyclones (ETCs), which raise the sea level with their associated extreme winds and lower air pressure. For coastal infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants, it is crucial to study physically possible sea level heights associated with ETCs. Such sea levels are not straightforward to determine from observational datasets only, because tide gauge records&#160; cover about 100 years and do not necessarily capture the most extreme cases having return periods longer than 100 years.In this study, a method for generating an ensemble of synthetic low-pressure systems is being developed to investigate the extreme sea level heights on the Finnish coast of Baltic sea. As input parameters for the method, the point of origin, velocity of the center of the cyclone and depth of the pressure anomaly need to be given. Based on the input parameters, the method forms an idealized low-pressure system using a two-dimensional Gaussian function. In order to find extreme, but still reasonable values for the input parameters, cyclone tracks from ERA5 reanalysis data will be analysed.The ensemble of synthetic low pressure systems (i.e. the wind and pressure data) is used as an input to a numerical sea level model. As a result, we have an ensemble of simulated sea levels, from which we can determine the properties of the ETCs that induce the highest sea levels on a given location on the coast. The preliminary simulation results show that this method works well, forming a basis for studies on extreme sea levels.&#160;&#160;

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HIDRA 1.0: Deep-Learning-Based Ensemble Sea Level Forecasting in the Northern Adriatic

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1161 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Lojze Žust ◽

Matjaž Ličer ◽

Anja Fettich ◽

Matej Kristan

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Ocean Circulation ◽

Tide Gauge ◽

Feature Learning ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Building Blocks ◽

Lead Times ◽

Atmospheric Forcing ◽

Northern Adriatic

Interactions between atmospheric forcing, topographic constraints to air and water flow, and resonant character of the basin make sea level modeling in Adriatic a challenging problem. In this study we present an ensemble deep-neural-network-based sea level forecasting method HIDRA, which outperforms our setup of the general ocean circulation model ensemble (NEMO v3.6) for all forecast lead times and at a minuscule fraction of the numerical cost (order of 2 &#215; 10-6). HIDRA exhibits larger bias but lower RMSE than our setup of NEMO over most of the residual sea level bins. It introduces a trainable atmospheric spatial encoder and employs fusion of atmospheric and sea level features into a self-contained network which enables discriminative feature learning. HIDRA architecture building blocks are experimentally analyzed in detail and compared to alternative approaches. Results show the importance of sea level input for forecast lead times below 24 h and the importance of atmospheric input for longer lead times. The best performance is achieved by considering the input as the total sea level, split into disjoint sets of tidal and residual signals. This enables HIDRA to optimize the prediction fidelity with respect to atmospheric forcing while compensating for the errors in the tidal model. HIDRA is trained and analysed on a ten-year (2006-2016) timeseries of atmospheric surface fields from a single member of ECMWF atmospheric ensemble. In the testing phase, both HIDRA and NEMO ensemble systems are forced by the ECMWF atmospheric ensemble. Their performance is evaluated on a one-year (2019) hourly time series from tide gauge in Koper (Slovenia). Spectral and continuous wavelet analysis of the forecasts at the semi-diurnal frequency (12 h)-1 and at the ground-state basin seiche frequency (21.5 h)-1 is performed. The energy at the basin seiche in the HIDRA forecast is close to the observed, while our setup of NEMO underestimates it. Analyses of the January 2015 and November 2019 storm surges indicate that HIDRA has learned to mimic the timing and amplitude of basin seiches.

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