scholarly journals The extremely warm summer of 2018 in Sweden – set in a historical context

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1107-1121
Author(s):  
Renate Anna Irma Wilcke ◽  
Erik Kjellström ◽  
Changgui Lin ◽  
Daniela Matei ◽  
Anders Moberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Historical Context ◽  
Lower Probability ◽  
Warm Summer ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Climate Model Ensembles ◽  
Model Ensembles ◽  
The One

Abstract. Two long-lasting high-pressure systems in summer 2018 led to persisting heatwaves over Scandinavia and other parts of Europe and an extended summer period with devastating impacts on agriculture, infrastructure, and human life. We use five climate model ensembles and the unique 263-year-long Stockholm temperature time series along with a composite 150-year-long time series for the whole of Sweden to set the latest heatwave in the summer of 2018 into historical perspective. With 263 years of data, we are able to grasp the pre-industrial period well and see a clear upward trend in temperature as well as upward trends in five heatwave indicators. With five climate model ensembles providing 20 580 simulated summers representing the latest 70 years, we analyse the likelihood of such a heat event and how unusual the 2018 Swedish summer actually was. We find that conditions such as those observed in summer 2018 are present in all climate model ensembles. An exception is the monthly mean temperature for May for which 2018 was warmer than any member in one of the five climate model ensembles. However, even if the ensembles generally contain individual years like 2018, the comparison shows that such conditions are rare. For the indices assessed here, anomalies such as those observed in 2018 occur in a maximum of 5 % of the ensemble members, sometimes even in less than 1 %. For all of the indices evaluated, we find that the probability of a summer such as that in 2018 has increased from relatively low values in the pre-industrial era (1861–1890, one ensemble) and the recent past (1951–1980, all five ensembles) to higher values in the most recent decades (1989–2018). An implication of this is that anthropogenic climate change has strongly increased the probability of a warm summer, such as the one observed 2018, occurring in Sweden. Despite this, we still find such summers in the pre-industrial climate in our simulations, albeit with a lower probability.

scholarly journals The extremely warm summer 2018 in Sweden – set in a historical context

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renate A. I. Wilcke ◽  
Erik Kjellström ◽  
Changgui Lin ◽  
Daniela Matei ◽  
Anders Moberg
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Lower Probability ◽  
Warm Summer ◽  
Climate Model Ensembles ◽  
Model Ensembles ◽  
The One

Abstract. Two long-lasting high pressure systems in summer 2018 lead to long lasting heat waves over Scandinavia and other parts of Europe and an extended summer period with devastating impacts on agriculture, infrastructure and human life. We use five climate model ensembles and the unique 263 year long Stockholm temperature time series along with a composite 150 year long time series for whole Sweden to set the latest heat-wave in summer 2018 in historical perspective. With 263 years we are able to grasp the pre-industrial time well and see a clear upward trend in temperature itself as well as heat wave indicators. With five climate model ensembles providing 20 580 simulated summers representing the latest 70 years, we analyse the likelihood of such a heat event and how unusual the 2018 Swedish summer actually was. We find that conditions as those observed in summer 2018 show up in all climate model ensembles. An exception is the monthly mean temperature for May for which 2018 was warmer than any member in one of the five climate model ensembles. However, even if the ensembles generally hold individual years like 2018, the comparison shows that such conditions are rare. For the indices assessed here, anomalies such as observed in 2018 occur maximally in 5 % of the ensemble members, sometimes even in less than 1 %. For all indices evaluated we find that probabilities of a summer like in 2018 have increased from relatively low values for the one ensemble extending back to 1861–90 and for all five ensembles including 1951–80 to the most recent decades (1989–2018). An implication is that anthropogenic climate change has strongly increased the probability of a warm summer such as the one observed 2018 to occur in Sweden. Despite this, we still find such summers also in the pre-industrial climate, however, with a lower probability.

Cloud Properties over the North Slope of Alaska: Identifying the Prevailing Meteorological Regimes

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (23) ◽  
pp. 8238-8258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Mülmenstädt ◽  
Dan Lubin ◽  
Lynn M. Russell ◽  
Andrew M. Vogelmann
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
North Slope ◽  
Test Cases ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Long Time Series ◽  
The North ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
North Slope Of Alaska ◽  
Long Time

Abstract Long time series of Arctic atmospheric measurements are assembled into meteorological categories that can serve as test cases for climate model evaluation. The meteorological categories are established by applying an objective k-means clustering algorithm to 11 years of standard surface-meteorological observations collected from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2010 at the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) site of the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM). Four meteorological categories emerge. These meteorological categories constitute the first classification by meteorological regime of a long time series of Arctic meteorological conditions. The synoptic-scale patterns associated with each category, which include well-known synoptic features such as the Aleutian low and Beaufort Sea high, are used to explain the conditions at the NSA site. Cloud properties, which are not used as inputs to the k-means clustering, are found to differ significantly between the regimes and are also well explained by the synoptic-scale influences in each regime. Since the data available at the ARM NSA site include a wealth of cloud observations, this classification is well suited for model–observation comparison studies. Each category comprises an ensemble of test cases covering a representative range in variables describing atmospheric structure, moisture content, and cloud properties. This classification is offered as a complement to standard case-study evaluation of climate model parameterizations, in which models are compared against limited realizations of the Earth–atmosphere system (e.g., from detailed aircraft measurements).

scholarly journals Well-being and Sustainable Development of Mining Regions: the Universal Basic Income

2019 ◽  
Vol 105 ◽  
pp. 04035
Author(s):  
Oleg Mazavin ◽  
Mikhail Kaz ◽  
Irina Roshchina
Keyword(s):  
Social Insurance ◽  
Historical Context ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Basic Income ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Series Of Experiments ◽  
The One ◽  
Mining Regions

The article presents the results of the analysis of the practice of implementation the concept of universal basic income. It is shown that in estimating the results of a series of experiments in this field, conducted in a number of countries, it is recommended to abandon the approach based on the positivist point of view. For a long time, it dominated science in general and economic research in particular, but it continues to influence many researchers today. This conclusion should be taken into account in the formation of the structure and composition of regions’ welfare indices. The research materials are placed in a broad historical context. On the one hand, this made it possible to more vividly present the prerequisites, characteristics and consequences of repeated attempts to introduce universal basic income into the practice of social insurance, undertaken in different countries of the world (Finland, Canada, Kenya, Iran, India, USA). On the other hand, to reveal the possibilities and problems of using universal basic income as a tool to help overcome the dysfunctional development of certain territories, including mining regions.

scholarly journals Reliability and importance of structural diversity of climate model ensembles

2013 ◽  
Vol 41 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 2745-2763 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tokuta Yokohata ◽  
James D. Annan ◽  
Matthew Collins ◽  
Charles S. Jackson ◽  
Hideo Shiogama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Structural Diversity ◽  
Climate Model Ensembles ◽  
Model Ensembles

The implications of soil erosion model conceptualization, bias-correction methods and climate model ensembles on soil erosion projections under climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joris de Vente ◽  
Joris Eekhout
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Erosion Model ◽  
Distribution Mapping ◽  
Climate Model Ensembles ◽  
Model Ensembles ◽  
The Impact

<p>Climate models project increased extreme precipitation for the coming decades, which may lead to higher soil erosion in many locations worldwide. The impact of climate change on soil erosion is most often assessed by applying a soil erosion model forced by bias-corrected climate model output. A literature review among more than 100 papers showed that many studies use different soil erosion models, bias-correction methods and climate model ensembles. In this study, we assessed how these differences affect the outcome of climate change impact assessments on soil erosion. The study was performed in two contrasting Mediterranean catchments (SE Spain), where climate change is projected to lead to a decrease in annual precipitation sum and an increase in extreme precipitation, based on the RCP8.5 emission scenario. First, we assessed the impact of soil erosion model selection using the three most widely used model concepts, i.e. a model forced by precipitation (RUSLE), a model forced by runoff (MUSLE), and a model forced by precipitation and runoff (MMF). Depending on the model, soil erosion in the study area is projected to decrease (RUSLE) or increase (MUSLE and MMF). The differences between the model projections are inherently a result of their model conceptualization, such as a decrease of soil loss due to decreased annual precipitation sum (RUSLE) and an increase of soil loss due to increased extreme precipitation and, consequently, increased runoff (MUSLE). An intermediate result is obtained with MMF, where a projected decrease in detachment by raindrop impact is counteracted by a projected increase in detachment by runoff. Second, we evaluated the implications of three bias‐correction methods, i.e. delta change, quantile mapping and scaled distribution mapping. Scaled distribution mapping best reproduces the raw climate change signal, in particular for extreme precipitation. Depending on the bias‐correction method, soil erosion is projected to decrease (delta change) or increase (quantile mapping and scaled distribution mapping). Finally, we assessed the effect of climate model ensembles on soil erosion projections. We showed that individual climate models may project opposite changes with respect to the ensemble average, hence, climate model ensembles are essential in soil erosion impact assessments to account for climate model uncertainty. We conclude that in climate change impact assessments it is important to select a soil erosion model that is forced by both precipitation and runoff, which under climate change may have a contrasting effect on soil erosion. Furthermore, the impact of climate change on soil erosion can only accurately be assessed with a bias‐correction method that best reproduces the projected climate change signal, in combination with a representative ensemble of climate models.</p>

scholarly journals Analysis of the Deformation Behavior and Sinkhole Risk in Kerdabad, Iran Using the PS-InSAR Method

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 2696
Author(s):  
Mahdi Khoshlahjeh Azar ◽  
Amir Hamedpour ◽  
Yasser Maghsoudi ◽  
Daniele Perissin
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Groundwater Depletion ◽  
Driving Mechanism ◽  
Radar Images ◽  
Persistent Scatterers ◽  
Gradual Process ◽  
Hamedan Province ◽  
The One

The unexpected collapse of land surface due to subsidence is one of the most significant geohazards that threatens human life and infrastructure. Kabudrahang and Famenin are two Iranian plains experiencing several sinkholes due to the characteristics of the underground soil layers and extreme groundwater depletion. In this study, space-based Synthetic Aperture Radar images are used to investigate the ground displacement behavior to examine the feasibility of Sentinel-1 data in detecting precursory deformation proceeding before the sinkhole formation. The selected sinkhole occurred in August 2018 in the vicinity of Kerdabad village in Hamedan province with a 40 m diameter and depth of ~40 m. Time series of the European constellation Sentinel-1 data, spanning from January 2015 to August 2018, is analyzed, and the results revealed a 3 cm annual subsidence (–3cm/year) along with the line-of-sight direction. Time-series analysis demonstrated that the driving mechanism of the sinkhole formation had a gradual process. Displacement of persistent scatterers (PSs) near the cave area had an acceleration by approaching the sinkhole formation date. In contrast, other areas that are far from the cave area show linear subsidence behavior over time. Additionally, the one-kilometer deformation profile over the cave area indicates a high subsidence rate precisely at the location where the sinkhole was formed later on 20 August 2018.

scholarly journals Representation of U.S. Warm Temperature Extremes in Global Climate Model Ensembles

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (9) ◽  
pp. 2591-2603 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily Hogan ◽  
Robert E. Nicholas ◽  
Klaus Keller ◽  
Stephanie Eilts ◽  
Ryan L. Sriver
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
The United States ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Warm Temperature ◽  
Climate Model Ensembles ◽  
Model Ensembles

Abstract Extreme temperature events can have considerable negative impacts on sectors such as health, agriculture, and transportation. Observational evidence indicates the severity and frequency of warm extremes are increasing over much of the United States, but there are sizeable challenges both in estimating extreme temperature changes and in quantifying the relevant associated uncertainties. This study provides a simple statistical framework using a block maxima approach to analyze the representation of warm temperature extremes in several recent global climate model ensembles. Uncertainties due to structural model differences, grid resolution, and internal variability are characterized and discussed. Results show that models and ensembles differ greatly in the representation of extreme temperature over the United States, and variability in tail events is dependent on time and anthropogenic warming, which can influence estimates of return periods and distribution parameter estimates using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. These effects can considerably influence the uncertainty of model hindcasts and projections of extremes. Several idealized regional applications are highlighted for evaluating ensemble skill and trends, based on quantile analysis and root-mean-square errors in the overall sample and the upper tail. The results are relevant to regional climate assessments that use global model outputs and that are sensitive to extreme warm temperature. Accompanying this manuscript is a simple toolkit using the R statistical programming language for characterizing extreme events in gridded datasets.

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