scholarly journals Evaluating the physical and biogeochemical state of the global ocean component of UKESM1 in CMIP6 historical simulations

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 3437-3472
Author(s):  
Andrew Yool ◽  
Julien Palmiéri ◽  
Colin G. Jones ◽  
Lee de Mora ◽  
Till Kuhlbrodt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Dissolved Inorganic Carbon ◽  
Lower Surface ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Marine Productivity ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2

Abstract. The ocean plays a key role in modulating the climate of the Earth system (ES). At the present time it is also a major sink both for the carbon dioxide (CO2) released by human activities and for the excess heat driven by the resulting atmospheric greenhouse effect. Understanding the ocean's role in these processes is critical for model projections of future change and its potential impacts on human societies. A necessary first step in assessing the credibility of such future projections is an evaluation of their performance against the present state of the ocean. Here we use a range of observational fields to validate the physical and biogeochemical performance of the ocean component of UKESM1, a new Earth system model (ESM) for CMIP6 built upon the HadGEM3-GC3.1 physical climate model. Analysis focuses on the realism of the ocean's physical state and circulation, its key elemental cycles, and its marine productivity. UKESM1 generally performs well across a broad spectrum of properties, but it exhibits a number of notable biases. Physically, these include a global warm bias inherited from model spin-up, excess northern sea ice but insufficient southern sea ice and sluggish interior circulation. Biogeochemical biases found include shallow remineralization of sinking organic matter, excessive iron stress in regions such as the equatorial Pacific, and generally lower surface alkalinity that results in decreased surface and interior dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations. The mechanisms driving these biases are explored to identify consequences for the behaviour of UKESM1 under future climate change scenarios and avenues for model improvement. Finally, across key biogeochemical properties, UKESM1 improves in performance relative to its CMIP5 precursor and performs well alongside its fellow members of the CMIP6 ensemble.

scholarly journals Evaluating the physical and biogeochemical state of the global ocean component of UKESM1 in CMIP6 Historical simulations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Yool ◽  
Julien Palmiéri ◽  
Colin G. Jones ◽  
Lee de Mora ◽  
Till Kuhlbrodt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Dissolved Inorganic Carbon ◽  
Lower Surface ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Earth System ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Model Improvement ◽  
Marine Productivity ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2

Abstract. The ocean plays a key role in modulating the climate of the Earth system (ES). At the present time it is also a major sink both for the carbon dioxide (CO2) released by human activities as well as for the excess heat driven by the resulting atmospheric greenhouse effect. Understanding the ocean's role in these processes is critical for model projections of future change and its potential impacts on human societies. A necessary first step in assessing the credibility of such future projections is an evaluation of their performance against the present state of the ocean. Here we use a range of observational properties to validate the physical and biogeochemical performance of the ocean component of UKESM1, a new Earth system (ESM) for CMIP6 built upon the HadGEM3 physical climate model. Analysis focuses on the realism of the ocean's physical state and circulation, its key elemental cycles, and its marine productivity. UKESM1 generally performs well across a broad spectrum of properties, but it exhibits a number of notable biases. Physically, these include a global warm bias inherited from model spin-up, excess northern sea-ice but insufficient southern sea-ice, and sluggish interior circulation. Biogeochemical biases found include shallow remineralisation of sinking organic matter, excessive iron stress in regions such as the Equatorial Pacific, and generally lower surface alkalinity that results in decreased surface and interior dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations. The mechanisms driving these biases are explored to identify consequences for the behaviour of UKESM1 under future climate scenarios, and avenues for model improvement. Finally, across key biogeochemical properties, UKESM1 improves in performance relative to its CMIP5 precursor, and compares favourably to fellow members of the CMIP6 ensemble.

scholarly journals CAS-ESM2.0 Model Datasets for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1 (OMIP1)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao Dong ◽  
Jiangbo Jin ◽  
Hailong Liu ◽  
He Zhang ◽  
Minghua Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Phase 1 ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Quasi Equilibrium ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project

AbstractAs a member of the Chinese modeling groups, the coupled ocean-ice component of the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Earth System Model, version 2.0 (CAS-ESM2.0), is taking part in the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1 (OMIP1) experiment of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The simulation was conducted, and monthly outputs have been published on the ESGF (Earth System Grid Federation) data server. In this paper, the experimental dataset is introduced, and the preliminary performances of the ocean model in simulating the global ocean temperature, salinity, sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, sea surface height, sea ice, and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are evaluated. The results show that the model is at quasi-equilibrium during the integration of 372 years, and performances of the model are reasonable compared with observations. This dataset is ready to be downloaded and used by the community in related research, e.g., multi-ocean-sea-ice model performance evaluation and interannual variation in oceans driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing.

scholarly journals Water Quality Sustainability Evaluation under Uncertainty: A Multi-Scenario Analysis Based on Bayesian Networks

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (17) ◽  
pp. 4764 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Sperotto ◽  
Josè Luis Molina ◽  
Silvia Torresan ◽  
Andrea Critto ◽  
Manuel Pulido-Velazquez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Nutrient Loadings

With increasing evidence of climate change affecting the quality of water resources, there is the need to assess the potential impacts of future climate change scenarios on water systems to ensure their long-term sustainability. The study assesses the uncertainty in the hydrological responses of the Zero river basin (northern Italy) generated by the adoption of an ensemble of climate projections from 10 different combinations of a global climate model (GCM)–regional climate model (RCM) under two emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5). Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to analyze the projected changes in nutrient loadings (NO3, NH4, PO4) in mid- (2041–2070) and long-term (2071–2100) periods with respect to the baseline (1983–2012). BN outputs show good confidence that, across considered scenarios and periods, nutrient loadings will increase, especially during autumn and winter seasons. Most models agree in projecting a high probability of an increase in nutrient loadings with respect to current conditions. In summer and spring, instead, the large variability between different GCM–RCM results makes it impossible to identify a univocal direction of change. Results suggest that adaptive water resource planning should be based on multi-model ensemble approaches as they are particularly useful for narrowing the spectrum of plausible impacts and uncertainties on water resources.

TT-MARINE: a new open modular cost-effective board to monitor coastal ecosystems

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viviana Piermattei ◽  
Marco Marcelli ◽  
Valentina Cafaro ◽  
Alice Madonia ◽  
Andrea Terribili ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Marine Ecosystems ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Observation System ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Anthropogenic Pressures ◽  
Coastal Marine

<p>The coastal marine system is characterized by multiple uses and it represents a vulnerable area highly subjected to anthropogenic pressures. Coastal marine ecosystems monitoring therefore requires an integrated multidisciplinary approach. The modeling of marine coastal dynamics and processes and the development of new observational technologies are fundamental in order to increase the available amount of data needed for the application of integrated approaches. New technologies and coastal observation networks are therefore a priority of the Global Ocean Observation System (GOOS) and of the Agenda 2030 strategy to improve the sustainable management of marine ecosystems and to contribute to future climate change scenarios. In this context a big effort is carried out by existing observing programs (ARGO, DPCP, GO-SHIP, OceanSITES, SOOP), which focus on open ocean waters and do not cover coastal areas. To do this, a significant reduction in the costs of platforms and instruments is necessary while maintaining sufficient measurement precision and consequently data quality. To face this issue, an Arduino based technology has been developed starting from the Tree-Talker-Cloud Technology (TT-Cloud board), a data acquisition and transmission system to monitor the health of trees and the impacts of climate change. From this technology, a new low-cost board, TT-Marine, has been developed, characterized by a high modularity allowing to manage the sensors by different types of communication protocols: RS232, UART, i2c, RS485; analog sensors can be managed by 16 and 24 bit AD converters. Depending on the characteristics and opportunities of the site, the system can manage LoRa, WiFi, gprs/gsm or cable data transmission systems. The TT-Marine is designed to be used in different modes: autonomous, ship-like as a profiler, on buoys and other measuring platforms.Here we present several operating modalities, with different missions and instrumental configurations.</p>

scholarly journals Northern Hemisphere storminess in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M)

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 8975-9015
Author(s):  
E. M. Knudsen ◽  
J. E. Walsh
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract. Metrics of storm activity in Northern Hemisphere high- and midlatitudes are evaluated from historical output and future projections by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) coupled global climate model. The European Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a global climate model of the same vintage as NorESM1-M, provide benchmarks for comparison. The focus is on the autumn and early winter (September through December), the period when the ongoing and projected Arctic sea ice retreat is greatest. Storm tracks derived from a vorticity-based algorithm for storm identification are reproduced well by NorESM1-M, although the tracks are somewhat better resolved in the higher-resolution ERA-Interim and CCSM4. The tracks are projected to shift polewards in the future as climate changes under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) forcing scenarios. Cyclones are projected to become generally more intense in the high-latitudes, especially over the Alaskan region, although in some other areas the intensity is projected to decrease. While projected changes in track density are less coherent, there is a general tendency towards less frequent storms in midlatitudes and more frequent storms in high-latitudes, especially the Baffin Bay/Davis Strait region. Autumn precipitation is projected to increase significantly across the entire high-latitudes. Together with the projected increases in storm intensity and sea level and the loss of sea ice, this increase in precipitation implies a greater vulnerability to coastal flooding and erosion, especially in the Alaskan region. The projected changes in storm intensity and precipitation (as well as sea ice and sea level pressure) scale generally linearly with the RCP value of the forcing and with time through the 21st century.

scholarly journals EcoGEnIE 0.1: Plankton Ecology in the cGENIE Earth system model

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben A. Ward ◽  
Jamie D. Wilson ◽  
Ros M. Death ◽  
Fanny M. Monteiro ◽  
Andrew Yool ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dissolved Inorganic Carbon ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
Marine Ecology ◽  
System Model ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Ocean Ecosystem ◽  
Global Biogeochemical Cycles ◽  
Plankton Species

Abstract. We present an extension to the cGENIE Earth System model that explicitly accounts for the growth and interaction of an arbitrary number of plankton species. The new package (ECOGEM) replaces the implicit, flux-based, parameterisation of the plankton community currently employed, with explicitly resolved plankton populations and ecological dynamics. In ECOGEM, any number of plankton species, with ecophysiological traits (e.g. growth and grazing rates) assigned according to organism size and functional group (e.g. phytoplankton and zooplankton) can be incorporated at run-time. We illustrate the capability of the marine ecology enabled Earth system model (EcoGENIE) by comparing results from one configuration of ECOGEM (with eight generic phytoplankton and zooplankton size classes) to climatological and seasonal observations. We find that the new ecological components of the model show reasonable agreement with both global-scale climatological and local-scale seasonal data. We also compare EcoGENIE results to a the existing biogeochemical incarnation of cGENIE. We find that the resulting global-scale distributions of phosphate, iron, dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity and oxygen are similar for both iterations of the model. A slight deterioration in some fields in EcoGENIE (relative to the data) is observed, although we make no attempt to re-tune the overall marine cycling of carbon and nutrients here. The increased capabilities of EcoGENIE in this regard will enable future exploration of the ecological community on much longer timescales than have previously been examined in global ocean ecosystem models and particularly for past climates and global biogeochemical cycles.

scholarly journals EcoGEnIE 1.0: plankton ecology in the cGEnIE Earth system model

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 4241-4267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben A. Ward ◽  
Jamie D. Wilson ◽  
Ros M. Death ◽  
Fanny M. Monteiro ◽  
Andrew Yool ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dissolved Inorganic Carbon ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
Marine Ecology ◽  
System Model ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Ocean Ecosystem ◽  
Global Biogeochemical Cycles ◽  
Plankton Species

Abstract. We present an extension to the carbon-centric Grid Enabled Integrated Earth system model (cGEnIE) that explicitly accounts for the growth and interaction of an arbitrary number of plankton species. The new package (ECOGEM) replaces the implicit, flux-based parameterisation of the plankton community currently employed, with explicitly resolved plankton populations and ecological dynamics. In ECOGEM, any number of plankton species, with ecophysiological traits (e.g. growth and grazing rates) assigned according to organism size and functional group (e.g. phytoplankton and zooplankton) can be incorporated at runtime. We illustrate the capability of the marine ecology enabled Earth system model (EcoGEnIE) by comparing results from one configuration of ECOGEM (with eight generic phytoplankton and zooplankton size classes) to climatological and seasonal observations. We find that the new ecological components of the model show reasonable agreement with both global-scale climatological and local-scale seasonal data. We also compare EcoGEnIE results to the existing biogeochemical incarnation of cGEnIE. We find that the resulting global-scale distributions of phosphate, iron, dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, and oxygen are similar for both iterations of the model. A slight deterioration in some fields in EcoGEnIE (relative to the data) is observed, although we make no attempt to re-tune the overall marine cycling of carbon and nutrients here. The increased capabilities of EcoGEnIE in this regard will enable future exploration of the ecological community on much longer timescales than have previously been examined in global ocean ecosystem models and particularly for past climates and global biogeochemical cycles.

New applications for an EMIC coupled to an atmospheric chemistry model - The University of Victoria Earth system climate model version 2.10 + FAIR chemistry module

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander J. MacIsaac ◽  
Nadine Mengis ◽  
Kirsten Zickfeld ◽  
Claude-Michel Nzotungicimpaye
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Desktop Computer ◽  
The University ◽  
Chemistry Module

<p>As an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC), the University of Victoria Earth system climate model (UVic-ESCM) has a comparably low computational cost (4.5–11.5 h per 100 years on a simple desktop computer). It is therefore a well-suited tool to perform experiments that are not yet computationally feasible in a state-of-the-art Earth system model. For example, the UVic-ESCM can be used to perform large perturbed parameter ensembles to constrain uncertainties, but also run a multitude of scenarios while at the same time simulating a well resolved carbon cycle. Thanks to its representation of many important components of the carbon cycle and the physical climate and its ability to simulate dynamic interactions between them, the UVic-ESCM is additionally a more comprehensive tool for process level uncertainty assessment compared to integrated assessment models (IAMs).</p><p>The coupling of this EMIC with an atmospheric chemistry module based on the FAIR simple climate model, now allows to directly implement GHG emission files as an input to the model, which makes it a valuable tool for many ‘what-if’ questions about climate turnaround times. Especially in the context of assessing the carbon cycle responses to future long-term climate change scenarios including e.g. marine CDR or terrestrial CDR implementations. In this presentation we will introduce this new model setup and show examples of first applications of this novel tool, while showcasing the advantages that it brings about. </p>

scholarly journals Geographic distribution of Desmodus rotundus in Mexico under current and future climate change scenarios: Implications for bovine paralytic rabies infection

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Heliot Zarza ◽  
Enrique Martínez-Meyer ◽  
Gerardo Suzán ◽  
Gerardo Ceballos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Epidemiological Surveillance ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Desmodus Rotundus

Veterinaria México OA ISSN: 2448-6760Cite this as:Zarza H, Martínez-Meyer E, Suzán G, Ceballos G. Geographic distribution of Desmodus rotundus in Mexico under current and future climate change scenarios: Implications for bovine paralytic rabies infection. Veterinaria México OA. 2017;4(3). doi: 10.21753/vmoa.4.3.390.Climate change may modify the spatial distribution of reservoirs hosting emerging and reemerging zoonotic pathogens, and forecasting these changes is essential for developing prevention and adaptation strategies. The most important reservoir of bovine paralytic rabies in tropical countries, is the vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus). In Mexico, the cattle industry loses more than $2.6 million US dollar, annually to this infectious disease. Therefore, we predicted the change in the distribution of D. rotundus due to future climate change scenarios, and examined the likely effect that the change in its distribution will have on paralytic rabies infections in Mexico. We used the correlative maximum entropy based model algorithm to predict the potential distribution of D. rotundus. Consistent with the literature, our results showed that temperature was the variable most highly associated with the current distribution of vampire bats. The highest concentration of bovine rabies was in Central and Southeastern Mexico, regions that also have high cattle population densities. Furthermore, our climatic envelope models predicted that by 2050–2070, D. rotundus will lose 20 % of its current distribution while the northern and central regions of Mexico will become suitable habitats for D. rotundus. Together, our study provides an advanced notice of the likely change in spatial patterns of D. rotundus and bovine paralytic rabies, and presents an important tool for strengthening the National Epidemiological Surveillance System and Monitoring programmes, useful for establishing holistic, long-term strategies to control this disease in Mexico.Figure 4. Modelled suitability for future distribution of Desmodus rotundus according to Global Climate Model GFDL-CM3 for two time periods (2050 and 2070), and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Left-hand column shows suitability values, with blue indicating more suitable conditions.

scholarly journals Northern Hemisphere storminess in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M)

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 2335-2355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erlend M. Knudsen ◽  
John E. Walsh
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract. Metrics of storm activity in Northern Hemisphere high and midlatitudes are evaluated from historical output and future projections by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) coupled global climate model. The European Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a global climate model of the same vintage as NorESM1-M, provide benchmarks for comparison. The focus is on the autumn and early winter (September through December) – the period when the ongoing and projected Arctic sea ice retreat is the greatest. Storm tracks derived from a vorticity-based algorithm for storm identification are reproduced well by NorESM1-M, although the tracks are somewhat better resolved in the higher-resolution ERA-Interim and CCSM4. The tracks show indications of shifting polewards in the future as climate changes under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) forcing scenarios. Cyclones are projected to become generally more intense in the high latitudes, especially over the Alaskan region, although in some other areas the intensity is projected to decrease. While projected changes in track density are less coherent, there is a general tendency towards less frequent storms in midlatitudes and more frequent storms in high latitudes, especially the Baffin Bay/Davis Strait region in September. Autumn precipitation is projected to increase significantly across the entire high latitudes. Together with the projected loss of sea ice and increases in storm intensity and sea level, this increase in precipitation implies a greater vulnerability to coastal flooding and erosion, especially in the Alaskan region. The projected changes in storm intensity and precipitation (as well as sea ice and sea level pressure) scale generally linearly with the RCP value of the forcing and with time through the 21st century.

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