Globally consistent assessment of economic impacts of wildfires in CLIMADA v2.2

Abstract. In light of the dramatic increase in economic impacts due to wildfires over recent years, the need for globally consistent impact modelling of wildfire damages is ever increasing. Insurance companies, individual households, humanitarian organizations, governmental authorities, and investors and portfolio owners are increasingly required to account for climate-related physical risks. In response to these societal challenges, we present an extension to the open-source and open-access risk modelling platform CLIMADA (CLImate ADAptation) for modelling economic impacts of wildfires in a globally consistent and spatially explicit approach. All input data are free, public and globally available, ensuring applicability in data-scarce regions of the Global South. The model was calibrated at resolutions of 1, 4 and 10 km using information on past wildfire damage reported by the disaster database EM-DAT. Despite the large remaining uncertainties, the model yields sound damage estimates with a model performance well in line with the results of other natural catastrophe impact models, such as for tropical cyclones. To complement the global perspective of this study, we conducted two case studies on the recent megafires in Chile (2017) and Australia (2020). The model is made available online as part of a Python package, ready for application in practical contexts such as disaster risk assessment, near-real-time impact estimates or physical climate risk disclosure.

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Globally consistent assessment of economic impacts of wildfires in CLIMADA v2.2

10.5194/gmd-2021-192 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Samuel Lüthi ◽

Gabriela Aznar-Siguan ◽

Christopher Fairless ◽

David N. Bresch

Keyword(s):

Climate Adaptation ◽

Economic Impacts ◽

Model Performance ◽

Insurance Companies ◽

Risk Disclosure ◽

Risk Modelling ◽

Impact Modelling ◽

Consistent Assessment ◽

Impact Models ◽

Python Package

Abstract. In light of the dramatic increase in economic impacts due to wildfires over recent years, the need for globally consistent impact modelling of wildfire damages is ever increasing. Insurance companies, individual households, humanitarian organisations and governmental authorities, as well as investors and portfolio owners, are increasingly required to account for climate-related physical risks. In this study we present a globally consistent and spatially explicit approach to modelling wildfire impacts using the open-source and open-access risk modelling platform CLIMADA (CLImate ADAptation). All input data is free, public and globally available, ensuring applicability in data-scarce regions of the Global South. The model was calibrated at resolutions of 1, 4 and 10 kilometers using information on past wildfire damage reported by the disaster database EM-DAT. Despite the large remaining uncertainties, the model yields sound damage estimates with a model performance well in line with the results of other natural catastrophe impact models, such as for tropical cyclones. To complement the global 10 perspective of this study, we conducted two case studies on the recent mega fires in Chile (2017) and Australia (2020). The model is made available online as part of a Python package, ready for application in practical contexts such as disaster risk assessment or physical climate risk disclosure.

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Fatalities caused by floods: a comparison between global databases and country scale historical research

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2688 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Michele Mercuri ◽

Olga Petrucci

Keyword(s):

Natural Disasters ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Global Scale ◽

European Countries ◽

Insurance Companies ◽

Economic Damage ◽

Global Databases ◽

Humanitarian Organizations ◽

Spatial Coverage

Datasets supporting the study of natural disasters and allowing spatial/temporal analyses of phenomena and their interactions with human societies is rapidly growing, due to the efforts of insurance companies, universities and humanitarian organizations. At the global scale, several disasters catalogues are available, even if some are only partially accessible. Generally, the focus is on the complete impact of disasters, in terms of areas affected and economic damage. Each record is a natural disaster, while database fields contain parameters assessing disaster magnitude. One of this parameter is the number of fatalities.In Australia and USA, databases of fatalities caused by specific kinds of natural disasters are available, while, for Europe, natural disasters mortality is often investigated using global databases.The present research focus on floods and their effects on people mortality. We named &#8220;flood fatalities&#8221; (FFs) people killed by direct impact of flood events due to the following short-term clinical causes: 1) Drowning; 2) Collapse/Heart attack; 3) Poly-trauma; 4) Poly-trauma and Suffocation; 5) Hypothermia; 6) Suffocation; 7) Electrocution.For a 40-years study period and for 9 European study areas, we performed a survey of FFs reported in four of the widely known global databases. Then we compared figures with the results of a very specific research carried out for the same study areas and study period at a country scale, and focusing on a very restricted field: fatalities caused by floods.The comparison highlights as the use of global databases can supply figures of FFs not correctly estimated, either underestimated or overestimated.Underestimation depends on the fact that collecting data at the global scale needs some severity threshold of floods to be included in the database. Thus, local events causing a few FFs, as i.e. flash flooding, are systematically excluded, even if the majority of floods that occur in developed countries kill less than 10 people. This results in an underestimation of FFs, which is going to increase due to the increasing frequency of localized floods or flash floods related to climate change. Overestimation, instead, can happen due to the classification of fatalities occurred at the same time of the flood, even if they are caused by other phenomena (i.e., landslides, debris flows and wind).This work aims to demonstrate how a database of flood fatalities realized at a country scale can supply realistic figures of fatalities in European countries, providing information that can reduce flood fatalities in the future. Our database is available for the period 1980-2018 (Petrucci et al., 2019). We encourage researchers working in European countries to collaborate with us to increase spatial coverage of the database and promote its common use in studies on flood mortality.Petrucci O., Aceto, L., Bianchi, C., Bigot, V., Br&#225;zdil, R., Pereira, S., Kahraman, A., K&#305;l&#305;&#231;, O., Kotroni, V., Llasat, M.C., Llasat-Botija, M., Papagiannaki, K., Pasqua. A.A., &#344;eho&#345; J., Rossello Geli, J. Salvati, P., Vinet, F., Z&#234;zere, J.L. (2019). Flood Fatalities in Europe, 1980&#8211;2018: Variability, Features, and Lessons to Learn. Water, 11(8), 1682.

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Pluvial Flooding in Utrecht: On Its Way to a Flood-Proof City

Water ◽

10.3390/w11071501 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (7) ◽

pp. 1501 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Brockhoff ◽

Koop ◽

Snel

Keyword(s):

Flood Risk ◽

Financial Incentives ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Citizen Engagement ◽

Public Authorities ◽

Governance Capacity ◽

Pluvial Flooding ◽

Local Actors ◽

Consistent Assessment ◽

The City

Downpours are increasing in frequency and severity due to climate change. Cities are particularly susceptible to flooding from downpours because of their large share of impervious surfaces. Minimising pluvial flood risk requires all involved stakeholders to collaborate and overcome various barriers. Although an increase in citizen engagement in climate adaptation is generally preferred, experiences with inclusive decision-making are often limited. The aim of this paper is to obtain a deeper understanding of how the capacity to govern pluvial flood risk can be developed through citizen engagement. We scrutinised the capacity of local actors to govern pluvial flood risk in the city of Utrecht, the Netherlands. For the analysis of Utrecht’s problem-solving capacity, the Governance Capacity Framework provided a consistent assessment of the key governance components. The results indicate that Utrecht’s capacity to govern pluvial flooding is relatively well-developed. Collaboration between public authorities is advanced, sufficient financial resources are available, and smart monitoring enables high levels of evaluation and learning. However, citizen awareness and engagement in policy making is rather low. Accordingly, citizens’ willingness to pay for flood adaptation is limited. Stimulating flood risk awareness by combining financial incentives with more advanced arrangements for active citizen engagement is key for Utrecht and other cities.

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Make Markets Work for Resilience

Building a Resilient Tomorrow ◽

10.1093/oso/9780190909345.003.0004 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 56-76

Author(s):

Hill and

Keyword(s):

Real Estate ◽

Large Scale ◽

Insurance Companies ◽

Climate Risk ◽

Insurance Markets ◽

Risk Disclosure ◽

Climate Risks ◽

Climate Resilience ◽

Systemic Level ◽

Bond Property

This chapter looks at how more transparent disclosure of climate risks can make markets work for resilience. In a world in which climate risk is reflected in the prices of assets traded in the market, everyone will be pressured to manage the risk and protect the value of their holdings. This chapter looks at four markets where we might expect climate risk disclosure to cause prices to change most readily: equities (company stocks), debt (bonds issued by companies and governments), property (real estate), and insurance. It argues that disclosure and better risk information can propel climate resilience at a systemic level, but it can also prove highly disruptive. Fear of disruption and its consequences has led different groups to throw sand into the gears to delay a day of reckoning, but that day is coming. If communities are unprepared, investors, banks, and insurance companies could panic and pull back indiscriminately from parts of the stock, bond, property, and insurance markets. The insights learned from these markets can illustrate how each could drive resilience on a large scale.

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A NEW MULTIVARIATE ZERO-INFLATED HURDLE MODEL WITH APPLICATIONS IN AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE

Astin Bulletin ◽

10.1017/asb.2021.39 ◽

2022 ◽

pp. 1-24

Author(s):

Pengcheng Zhang ◽

David Pitt ◽

Xueyuan Wu

Keyword(s):

Model Performance ◽

Insurance Companies ◽

Hurdle Model ◽

Automobile Insurance ◽

Insurance Company ◽

Computational Statistics ◽

Count Models ◽

Insurance Portfolio ◽

Insurance Business ◽

One Year

Abstract The fact that a large proportion of insurance policyholders make no claims during a one-year period highlights the importance of zero-inflated count models when analyzing the frequency of insurance claims. There is a vast literature focused on the univariate case of zero-inflated count models, while work in the area of multivariate models is considerably less advanced. Given that insurance companies write multiple lines of insurance business, where the claim counts on these lines of business are often correlated, there is a strong incentive to analyze multivariate claim count models. Motivated by the idea of Liu and Tian (Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 83, 200–222; 2015), we develop a multivariate zero-inflated hurdle model to describe multivariate count data with extra zeros. This generalization offers more flexibility in modeling the behavior of individual claim counts while also incorporating a correlation structure between claim counts for different lines of insurance business. We develop an application of the expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm to enable the statistical inference necessary to estimate the parameters associated with our model. Our model is then applied to an automobile insurance portfolio from a major insurance company in Spain. We demonstrate that the model performance for the multivariate zero-inflated hurdle model is superior when compared to several alternatives.

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CLIMADA v1.4.1: Towards a globally consistent adaptation options appraisal tool

10.5194/gmd-2020-151 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

David N. Bresch ◽

Gabriela Aznar-Siguan

Keyword(s):

Climate Adaptation ◽

Cost Effective ◽

Interdisciplinary Studies ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Economic Framework ◽

Impact Modelling ◽

The Cost ◽

Impact Events ◽

Adaptation Options

Abstract. Climate change is a fact and adaptation to a changing environment therefore a necessity. Adaptation is ultimately local, yet similar challenges pose themselves to decision-makers all across the globe and on all levels. The Economics of Climate Adaptation (ECA) methodology established an economic framework to fully integrate risk and reward perspectives of different 10 stakeholders, underpinned by the CLIMADA impact modelling platform. We present an extension of the latter to appraise adaption options in a consistent fashion in order to provide decision-makers from the local to the global level with the necessary facts to identify the most effective instruments to meet the adaptation challenge. We apply the open-source methodology and its Python implementation to a case study in the Caribbean, which allows to prioritize a small basked of adaptation options, namely green and grey infrastructure options as well as behavioural measures, and permits inter-island comparisons. In 15 Anguilla, for example, mangroves avert simulated damages more than 4 times the cost estimated for restoration, while enforcement of building codes shows to be effective in the Turks and Caicos islands. For all islands, cost-effective measures reduce the cost of risk transfer, which covers damage of high impact events that cannot be cost-effectively prevented by other measures. This extended version of the CLIMADA platform has been designed to enable risk assessment and options appraisal in a modular form and occasionally bespoke fashion yet with high reusability of common functionalities to foster usage of the 20 platform in interdisciplinary studies and international collaboration.

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A globally consistent probabilistic wildfire risk model to assess economic damages

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2241 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Samuel Lüthi ◽

David Bresch

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Random Walk ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Risk Model ◽

Grid Point ◽

Probabilistic Risk Assessment ◽

Insurance Companies ◽

Wildfire Risk ◽

Economic Damages ◽

Probabilistic Risk

Wildfire risk around the world is rapidly increasing, leading to dramatic impacts on ecosystems and society. Economic damages of the past seasons threaten individual households, insurance companies, brokers and governmental authorities alike. Here, we present a probabilistic wildfire risk model to assess fire and economic risk. The model creates synthetic fire seasons through probabilistic ignition and dynamic random-walk spreading of fires.The risk of natural catastrophes is commonly modeled using the three components hazard, exposure and vulnerability. This approach is used in the well-established open-source platform CLIMADA (CLIMate ADAptation). Here we show its extension for a globally consistent wildfire risk model. The model allows for the evaluation of economic damages of past and current wildfire events as well as a probabilistic risk assessment for any exposure on a seasonal basis. It is built on open and global data to ensure consistent modelling, including in data-sparse regions.The hazard component uses Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) data acquired by the MODIS and VIIRS satellite missions and provided by Earthdata. We aggregate point information of fire activity using clustering algorithms over space and time to identify separate events while allowing for different resolutions (minimum of 375 m). For the exposure component, CLIMADA&#8217;s LitPop model is used, which geographically distributes assets using data on night-light intensity and population density. To assess the vulnerability, the model has been calibrated using reported damage data. Although uncertainties remain large, error scores after calibration resemble those of well-established hazards, such as tropical cyclones. To allow for probabilistic risk assessment, synthetic fire seasons are generated using a random-walk-type stochastic fire generator, which hinges on grid-point specific fire spread probabilities combined with an overall fire propagation probability. The framework further allows for a simple integration of additional data in order to reflect climate trends.

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Characteristics of Nature-based Solutions in non-urban environments

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-8559 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Heikki Tuomenvirta ◽

Natalia Korhonen ◽

Athanasios Votsis ◽

Massimo Menenti ◽

Silvia Alfieri ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ecosystem Services ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Urban Environments ◽

Societal Challenges ◽

Variable Environments ◽

Community Effort ◽

Meteorological Hazards ◽

Socio Economic Variables ◽

The Impact

Nature-based Solutions (NBS) are being developed in variable environments to address societal challenges with use of ecosystem services. Recently there has been notable activities and progress in developing and implementing NBS in urban environments. On the other hand, NBS have &#8220;roots&#8221; in nature conservation and ecosystem services. Accordingly, the International Union for Conservation of Nature is leading the community effort to articulate a Global Standard for the Design and Verification of Nature-based Solutions.The ongoing EU H2020 project OPERANDUM focuses on development and implementation of NBS to mitigate exposure, vulnerabilities and risks to hydro-meteorological hazards in European rural and natural landscapes. This presentation identifies and examines some of the characteristic of NBS in non-urban settings based on literature and experiences gained in the OPERANDUM project. These include, e.g. physical environment, economic and social capital as well as other resources, and legal and governance issues. Additional challenges arise from requirement to co-design of NBS with the stakeholders which can have a large diversity of societal demands for land use. The OPERANDUM project activities are discussed in relation to four approaches relevant for the OPERANDUM project: Ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction; Climate adaptation services; Ecosystem-based adaptation; Ecosystem-based mitigation.Case &#8211; studies are being developed to document the impact of extreme events related to different hydro-meteorological hazards, e.g. floods, landslides and droughts by combining earth observation with hydro-meteorological data. The analysis is designed to mirror the role of NBS in providing multiple benefits, in particular in mitigating impacts of extreme hydro-meterological events by acting on bio-geophysical and socio-economic variables characterizing exposure and vulnerabilities.

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Sustainability in facilities management: an overview of current research

Facilities ◽

10.1108/f-07-2014-0060 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 34 (9/10) ◽

pp. 535-563 ◽

Cited By ~ 27

Author(s):

Susanne Balslev Nielsen ◽

Anna-Liisa Sarasoja ◽

Kirsten Ramskov Galamba

Keyword(s):

Literature Review ◽

Environmental Sustainability ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Practical Knowledge ◽

Facilities Management ◽

Literature Study ◽

Content Type ◽

Societal Challenges ◽

Strategic Approach ◽

Societal Level

Purpose Climate adaptation, energy efficiency, sustainable development and green growth are societal challenges for which the Facilities Management (FM) profession can develop solutions and make positive contributions on the organisational level and with societal-level effects. To base the emerging sub-discipline of sustainable facilities management (SFM) on research, an overview of current studies is needed. The purpose of this literature review is to provide exactly this overview. Design/methodology/approach This article identifies and examines current research studies on SFM through a comprehensive and systematic literature review. The literature review included screening of 85 identified scientific journals and almost 20,000 articles from the period of 2007-2012. Of the articles reviewed, 151 were identified as key articles and categorised according to topic. Findings The literature review indicated that the current research varies in focus, methodology and application of theory, and it was concluded that the current research primary addresses environmental sustainability, whereas the current research which takes an integrated strategic approach to SFM is limited. The article includes lists of reviewed journals and articles to support the further development of SFM in research and practice. Research limitations/implications The literature review includes literature from 2007 to 2012, to manage the analytical process within the project period. However, with the current categorisation and the access to the reviewed journals and articles, it is possible to continue with the latest literature. Practical implications The article provides an overview of theoretical and practical knowledge which can guide: how to document and measure the performance of building operations in terms of environmental, social and economical impacts? How to improve the sustainability performance of buildings? What are the potentials for and barriers to integrating sustainability into FM on strategic, tactical and operational levels? Originality/value The paper presents the most comprehensive literature study on SFM so far, and represents an important knowledge basis which is likely to become a key reference point for pioneers and scholars in the emerging sub-discipline of SFM.

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VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX: A POTENTIAL YIELD ESTIMATOR

ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences ◽

10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-3-w6-211-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol XLII-3/W6 ◽

pp. 211-215

Author(s):

S. K. Dubey ◽

A. Gavli ◽

S. S. Ray ◽

Keyword(s):

Crop Yield ◽

Model Performance ◽

Condition Index ◽

Empirical Models ◽

District Level ◽

Insurance Companies ◽

Statistical Parameters ◽

Potential Yield ◽

Vegetation Condition ◽

Vegetation Condition Index

Abstract. Early yield assessment at local, regional and national scales is a major requirement for various users such as agriculture planners, policy makers, crop insurance companies and researchers. Current study explored a remote sensing-based approach of predicting the yield of Wheat, Kharif Rice and Rabi Rice at district level, using Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), under the FASAL programme. In order to make the estimates 14-years’ historical database (2003&ndash;2016) of NDVI was used to derive the VCI. The yield estimation was carried out for 335 districts (136 districts of Wheat, 23 districts of Rabi Rice and 159 districts of Kharif Rice) for the period of 2016&ndash;17. NDVI products (MOD-13A2) of MODIS instrument on board Terra satellite at 16-day interval from first fortnight of peak growing period of crop were used to calculate the VCI. Stepwise regression technique was used to develop empirical models between VCI and historical yield of crops. Estimated yields are good in agreement with the actual district level yield with the R2 of, 0.78 for Wheat, 0.52 for Rabi Rice and 0.69 for Kharif Rice. For all the districts, the empirical models were found to be statistically significant. A large number of statistical parameters were computed to evaluate the performance of VCI-based models in predicting district-level crop yield. Though there was variation in model performance in different states and crops, overall, the study showed the usefulness of VCI, which can be used as an input for operational crop yield forecasting, at district level.

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