Accounting for forest management in the estimation of forest carbon balance using the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (v4.0, r9333): Implementation and evaluation of simulations for Europe

Abstract. Global forests are the main component of the land carbon sink, which acts as a partial buffer to CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. Dynamic vegetation models offer an approach to making projections of the development of forest carbon sink capacity in a future climate. Forest management capabilities in dynamic vegetation models are important to include the effects of age and species structure and wood harvest on carbon stocks and carbon storage potential. This article describes the introduction of a forest management module in the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. Different age- and species-structure setup strategies and harvest alternatives are introduced. The model is used to represent current European forests and an automated harvest strategy is applied. Modelled carbon stocks and fluxes are evaluated against observed data at the continent and country levels. Including wood harvest in simulations increases the total European carbon sink by 32 % in 1991–2015 and improves the fit to the reported European carbon sink, growing stock and net annual increment (NAI). Growing stock (156 m3 ha−1) and NAI (5.4 m3 ha−1 y−1) densities in 2010 are close to reported values, while the carbon sink density in 2000–2007 (0.085 kgC m−2 y−1) is 63 % of reported values. The fit of modelled values and observations for individual European countries vary, but NAI is generally closer to observations when including wood harvest in simulations.

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Accounting for forest management in the estimation of forest carbon balance using the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (v4.0, r9710): implementation and evaluation of simulations for Europe

Geoscientific Model Development ◽

10.5194/gmd-14-6071-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (10) ◽

pp. 6071-6112

Author(s):

Mats Lindeskog ◽

Benjamin Smith ◽

Fredrik Lagergren ◽

Ekaterina Sycheva ◽

Andrej Ficko ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Forest Management ◽

Carbon Sink ◽

Carbon Stocks ◽

Species Structure ◽

Vegetation Model ◽

Growing Stock ◽

Clear Cut ◽

Vegetation Models ◽

Wood Harvest ◽

Management Alternatives

Abstract. Global forests are the main component of the land carbon sink, which acts as a partial buffer to CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. Dynamic vegetation models offer an approach to projecting the development of forest carbon sink capacity in a future climate. Forest management capabilities are important to include in dynamic vegetation models to account for the effects of age and species structure and wood harvest on carbon stocks and carbon storage potential. This article describes the implementation of a forest management module containing even-age and clear-cut and uneven-age and continuous-cover management alternatives in the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. Different age and species structure initialisation strategies and harvest alternatives are introduced. The model is applied at stand and European scales. Different management alternatives are applied in simulations of European beech (Fagus sylvaticus) and Norway spruce (Picea abies) even-aged monoculture stands in central Europe and evaluated against above-ground standing stem volume and harvested volume data from long-term experimental plots. At the European scale, an automated thinning and clear-cut strategy is applied. Modelled carbon stocks and fluxes are evaluated against reported data at the continent and country levels. Including wood harvest in regrowth forests increases the simulated total European carbon sink by 32 % in 1991–2015 and improves the fit to the reported European carbon sink, growing stock, and net annual increment (NAI). Growing stock (156 m3 ha−1) and NAI (5.4 m3 ha1 yr1) densities in 2010 are close to reported values, while the carbon sink density in 2000–2007 (0.085 kg C m−2 yr1) equates to 63 % of reported values, most likely reflecting uncertainties in carbon fluxes from soil given the unaccounted for forest land-use history in the simulations. The fit of modelled and reported values for individual European countries varies, but NAI is generally closer to reported values when including wood harvest in simulations.

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Analysis of carbon sequestration sensitivity to recent changes in land use patterns over Belgium using a combination of models and remote sensing techniques

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-9342 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Arpita Verma ◽

Ingrid Jacquemin ◽

Louis Francois ◽

Nicolas Dendoncker ◽

Veronique Beckers ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Driving Forces ◽

Carbon Sink ◽

Carbon Stocks ◽

Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽

Terrestrial Carbon ◽

Vegetation Model ◽

Land Use Patterns ◽

Dynamic Vegetation Model ◽

The Impact

Changes in land use/land cover (LU/LC) practices are critical to determine and this is one of the crucial driving forces of terrestrial ecosystem productivity and carbon sink variability. However, relatively few studies have quantified the impact of LU/LC change on the terrestrial carbon cycle. In the present study, we developed a workflow for quantifying and assessing changes in terrestrial carbon stocks due to land use change using a dynamic vegetation model. The main objectives are to assess status and variation in carbon stocks across land covers, towards the quantification of spatial distribution and dynamic variation of terrestrial carbon sinks in response to LU/LC change. Here, with the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model, we perform simulations using several sets of LU/LC data to analyse the sensitivity of the carbon sink. We propose a new method of using satellite &#8211; and machine learning-based observation to reconstruct historical LU/LC change and compare it with static data from the cadastral map and dynamic data from an agent-based model coupled with CARAIB. It will quantify the spatial and temporal variability of land use during the 2000-2019 period over Belgium at high resolution. This study will give the space to analyse past information and hence calibrate the dynamic vegetation model to minimize uncertainty in the future projection (until 2035). Overall, this study allows us to understand the effect of changing land use pattern and identify the input dataset which minimizes the uncertainty in model estimation.

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The past and the future of the tropical forest carbon sink: insights from permanent forest inventory plots

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-11069 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Wannes Hubau ◽

Simon L. Lewis ◽

Oliver L. Phillips ◽

Hans Beeckman ◽

Keyword(s):

Tropical Forest ◽

Tropical Forests ◽

Carbon Sink ◽

Forest Carbon ◽

Policy Implications ◽

The Past ◽

Net Zero ◽

The Future ◽

Independent Observations ◽

Vegetation Models

Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered ~1 Pg C yr-1 over the 1990s and early 2000s, equivalent to ~15% of fossil fuel emissions. Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this carbon sink will continue for the remainder of the 21st century. However, recent plot inventories from Amazonia show a declining rate of carbon sequestration, potentially signaling an imminent end to the sink. Here we assess whether the African tropical forest sink is also declining.Records from 244 multi-census plots across 11 countries reveal that the African tropical forest sink in aboveground live biomass has been stable for three decades, at 0.66 Mg C ha-1 yr-1, from 1985-2015 (95% CI, 0.53-0.79). Thus, the carbon sink responses of Earth&#8217;s two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged over recent decades. A statistical model including CO2, temperature, drought, and forest dynamics can account for the trends. Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our data and model show that very recently the sink has begun decreasing, and that it will continue to decline in the future.&#160; This implies that the intact tropical forest carbon sink on both continents is set to end decades sooner than even the most extreme vegetation model estimates.Published independent observations of inter-hemispheric atmospheric CO2 concentration indicate increasing carbon uptake into the Northern hemisphere landmass, offsetting a weakening of the tropical forest sink, which reinforces our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already saturated. Nevertheless, continued on-the-ground monitoring of the world&#8217;s remaining intact tropical forests will be required to test our prediction that the intact tropical forest carbon sink will continue to decline. Our findings were recently published in Nature (March 2020) and have important policy implications: given tropical forests are likely to sequester less carbon in the future than Earth System Models predict, an earlier date to reach net zero anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will be required to meet any given commitment to limit the global heating of Earth.

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Modelling Holocene peatland dynamics with an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

10.5194/bg-2016-319 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Nitin Chaudhary ◽

Paul A. Miller ◽

Benjamin Smith

Keyword(s):

Vegetation Dynamics ◽

Carbon Fluxes ◽

Published Data ◽

Vegetation Model ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Dynamic Vegetation Model ◽

Fertilization Effect ◽

Vegetation Models ◽

Global Vegetation

Abstract. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are designed for the study of past, present and future vegetation patterns together with associated biogeochemical cycles and climate feedbacks. However, current DGVMs lack functionality for the representation of peatlands, an important store of carbon at high latitudes. We demonstrate a new implementation of peatland dynamics in a customised "Arctic" version of the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, simulating the long-term evolution of selected northern peatland ecosystems and assessing the effect of changing climate on peatland carbon balance. Our approach employs a dynamic multi-layer soil with representation of freeze-thaw processes and litter inputs from a dynamically-varying mixture of the main peatland plant functional types; mosses, dwarf shrubs and graminoids. The model was calibrated and tested for a sub-arctic mire in Stordalen, Sweden, and validated at a temperate bog site in Mer Bleue, Canada. A regional evaluation of simulated carbon fluxes, hydrology and vegetation dynamics encompassed additional locations spread across Scandinavia. Simulated peat accumulation was found to be generally consistent with published data and the model was able to capture reported long-term vegetation dynamics, water table position and carbon fluxes. A series of sensitivity experiments were carried out to investigate the vulnerability of high latitude peatlands to climate change. We found that the Stordalen mire may be expected to sequester more carbon in the first half of the 21st century due to milder and wetter climate conditions, a longer growing season, and CO2 fertilization effect, turning into a carbon source after mid-century because of higher decomposition rates in response to warming soils.

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Modeling the effects of forest management on in situ and ex situ longleaf pine forest carbon stocks

Forest Ecology and Management ◽

10.1016/j.foreco.2015.02.029 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 355 ◽

pp. 24-36 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

C.A. Gonzalez-Benecke ◽

L.J. Samuelson ◽

T.A. Martin ◽

W.P. Cropper ◽

K.H. Johnsen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Forest Management ◽

Longleaf Pine ◽

Carbon Stocks ◽

Pine Forest ◽

Forest Carbon ◽

Ex Situ

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The Effect of Harvesting on National Forest Carbon Sinks up to 2050 Simulated by the CBM-CFS3 Model: A Case Study from Slovenia

Forests ◽

10.3390/f11101090 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

pp. 1090

Author(s):

Jernej Jevšenak ◽

Matija Klopčič ◽

Boštjan Mali

Keyword(s):

Forest Management ◽

Carbon Sink ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Carbon Dynamics ◽

Forest Carbon ◽

Forest Sector ◽

Negative Effects ◽

Eu Member States ◽

Carbon Budget Model ◽

Management Plans

With the advent of global warming, forests are becoming an increasingly important carbon sink that can mitigate the negative effects of climate change. An understanding of the carbon dynamics of forests is, therefore, crucial to implement appropriate forest management strategies and to meet the expectations of the Paris Agreement with respect to international reporting schemes. One of the most frequently used models for simulating the dynamics of carbon stocks in forests is the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3). We applied this model in our study to evaluate the effects of harvesting on the carbon sink dynamics in Slovenian forests. Five harvesting scenarios were defined: (1) business as usual (BAU), (2) harvesting in line with current forest management plans (PLAN), (3) more frequent natural hazards (HAZ), (4) high harvest (HH) and (5) low harvest (LH). The simulated forest carbon dynamics revealed important differences between the harvesting scenarios. Relative to the base year of 2014, by 2050 the carbon stock in above-ground biomass is projected to increase by 28.4% (LH), 19% (BAU), 10% (PLAN), 6.5% (HAZ) and 1.2% (HH). Slovenian forests can be expected to be a carbon sink until harvesting exceeds approximately 9 million m3 annually, which is close to the calculated total annual volume increase. Our results are also important in terms of Forest Reference Levels (FRL), which will take place in European Union (EU) member states in the period 2021–2025. For Slovenia, the FRL was set to −3270.2 Gg CO2 eq/year, meaning that the total timber harvested should not exceed 6 million m3 annually.

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The effect of harvesting on national forest carbon sinks up to 2050 simulated by the CBM-CFS3 model: a case study from Slovenia

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13486 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Bostjan Mali ◽

Jernej Jevsenak ◽

Matija Klopcic

Keyword(s):

Forest Management ◽

Carbon Sink ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Carbon Dynamics ◽

Forest Carbon ◽

Forest Sector ◽

Negative Effects ◽

Eu Member States ◽

Carbon Budget Model ◽

Management Plans

With the advent of global warming, forests are becoming an increasingly important carbon sink that can mitigate the negative effects of climate change. An understanding of the carbon dynamics of forests is, therefore, crucial to implement appropriate forest management strategies and to meet the expectations of the Paris Agreement with respect to international reporting schemes. One of the most frequently used models for simulating the dynamics of carbon stocks in forests is the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3). We applied this model in our study to evaluate the effects of harvesting on the carbon sink dynamics in Slovenian forests. Five harvesting scenarios were defined: (1) business as usual (BAU), (2) harvesting in line with current forest management plans (PLAN), (3) more frequent natural hazards (HAZ), (4) high harvest (HH) and (5) low harvest (LH). The simulated forest carbon dynamics revealed important differences between the harvesting scenarios. Relative to the base year of 2014, by 2050 the carbon stock in above-ground biomass is projected to increase by 28.4% (LH), 19% (BAU), 10% (PLAN), 6.5% (HAZ) and 1.2% (HH). Slovenian forests can be expected to be a carbon sink until harvesting exceeds approximately 9 million m3 annually, which is close to the calculated total annual volume increase. Our results are also important in terms of Forest Reference Levels (FRL), which will take place in European Union (EU) member states in the period 2021-2025. For Slovenia, the FRL was set to &#8211;3270.2 Gg CO2 eq/year, meaning that the total timber harvested should not exceed 6 million m3 annually.

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An Example of Uneven-Aged Forest Management for Sustainable Timber Harvesting

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su10093305 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (9) ◽

pp. 3305

Author(s):

Jan Banaś ◽

Stanisław Zięba ◽

Leszek Bujoczek

Keyword(s):

Forest Management ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Timber Harvesting ◽

Species Structure ◽

Stock Management ◽

Individual Tree ◽

Entire Study ◽

Permanent Sample Plots ◽

Growing Stock ◽

Volume Increment

This paper presents a system of uneven-aged forest management consistent with the principles of close-to-nature silviculture with treatments adopted to the requirements of individual tree stands, depending on their development phase, growing stock volume, DBH distribution and regeneration status. The study involves an experimental forest (property of the University of Agriculture in Cracow, Poland) with an area of 455.86 ha, located in the Western Carpathians. Data about stand characteristics and development processes, including regeneration, survival and removal, were obtained by measurements conducted at 10-year intervals on 413 permanent sample plots in the years 1976–2016, resulting in a total of four measurement periods. In the first period (1976–1986), harvesting intensity was low at 2.16 m3/ha/year but subsequently increased with the development of growing stock, higher volume increments and improved age and species structure, to finally reach 10.34 m3/ha/year in 2006–2016. The mean volume of timber harvested over the entire study period was 6.12 m3/ha/year, corresponding to 65.2% of the volume increment and 2.8% of the total growing stock. Management by the close-to-nature silviculture method had a positive impact on the forest characteristics. The improved species and age structure and the increased volume increment and growing stock translated into greater stand productivity without detriment to the implementation of non-timber forest functions.

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Waldbewirtschaftung zur Senkenerhöhung? Mögliche Konfliktfelder und Synergien | Increasing carbon sinks by forest management? Conflicts and synergies

Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen ◽

10.3188/szf.2008.0281 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 159 (9) ◽

pp. 281-287 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Esther Thürig ◽

Edgar Kaufmann

Keyword(s):

Forest Management ◽

Kyoto Protocol ◽

Carbon Sources ◽

National Forest Inventory ◽

Forest Carbon ◽

Carbon Sinks ◽

Management Scenarios ◽

Growing Stock ◽

Federal Institute ◽

Management Conflicts

A new function of forests was brought into focus by the Kyoto Protocol: forests as carbon sinks. Switzerland decided to have forest management taken into account under the Kyoto Protocol (Art. 3.4). This new forest function brings about new conflicts. The Swiss Forestry statistics and the Swiss National Forest Inventory show harvesting amounts are increasing and the trend seems set to continue. In a study by the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL) different forest management scenarios were analyzed as was their influence both on the amount harvested in the long term and the forest sink effect. The study focussed on the following question: How can increased forest management be combined with forest carbon sinks and where are the limits? The scenarios range from reduced forest management and corresponding forest carbon sinks to a reduction of growing stock with corresponding carbon sources. Results show that for a limited time span both aspects can be considered on a national scale. Further studies should focus on interactions with other forest functions such as preservation of biodiversity, damage to forests and the effect of climate change.

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Anrechnung der CO2-Senken des Schweizer Waldes: Grundlagenpapier und Empfehlungen | Accounting of CO2 sinks in Swiss forests. Working paper and recommendations

Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen ◽

10.3188/szf.2005.0438 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 156 (11) ◽

pp. 438-441

Author(s):

Arbeitsgruppe Wald- und ◽

Holzwirtschaft im Klimaschutz

Keyword(s):

Forest Management ◽

Greenhouse Gases ◽

Climate Policy ◽

Federal Government ◽

Kyoto Protocol ◽

Carbon Balance ◽

Carbon Sink ◽

Management Policy ◽

Working Paper ◽

Reduction Of Co2

With the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol aimed at reducing greenhouse gases, Switzerland is committed to reducing CO2emissions by 4.2 million tonnes by 2008. The forests in Switzerland could contribute to the country's national carbon balance with maximum 1.8 million tonnes reduction of CO2. With an increased use of the forest the emissions could be reduced by up to 2 million tonnes by the substitution of other materials. With a targeted forest management policy carbon sink reduction and the substitution value of the forest could be balanced against one another. In the framework of climate policy the Federal government should create the legal and organisational conditions for this.

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