Assessment of Precipitation Error Propagation in Multi-Model Global Water Resources Reanalysis

Abstract. This study focuses on the Iberian Peninsula and investigates the propagation of precipitation uncertainty, and its interaction with hydrologic modelling, in global water resources reanalysis. Analysis is based on ensemble hydrologic simulations for a period spanning 11 years (2000–2010). To simulate the hydrological variables of surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and evapotranspiration, we used four land surface models—JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator), ORCHIDEE (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems), SURFEX (Surface Externalisée), and HTESSEL (Hydrology-Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchange over Land)—and one global hydrological model, WaterGAP3 (Water–Global Assessment and Prognosis). Simulations were carried out for five precipitation products—CMORPH, PERSIANN, 3B42 (V7), ECMWF reanalysis, and a machine learning-based blended product. As reference, we used a ground-based observation-driven precipitation dataset, named SAFRAN, available at 5 km/1 h resolution. We present relative performances of hydrologic variables for the different multi-model/multi-forcing scenarios. Overall, results reveal the complexity of the interaction between precipitation characteristics and different modelling schemes and show that uncertainties in the model simulations are attributed to both uncertainty in precipitation forcing and the model structure. Surface runoff is strongly sensitive to precipitation uncertainty and the degree of sensitivity depends significantly on the runoff generation scheme of each model examined. Evapotranspiration fluxes are comparatively less sensitive for this study region. Finally, our results suggest that there is no single model/forcing combination that can outperform all others consistently for all variables examined and thus reinforce the fact that there are significant benefits in exploring different model structures as part of the overall modelling approaches used for water resources applications.

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Assessment of precipitation error propagation in multi-model global water resource reanalysis

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-23-1973-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 23 (4) ◽

pp. 1973-1994 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

Md Abul Ehsan Bhuiyan ◽

Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos ◽

Emmanouil N. Anagnostou ◽

Jan Polcher ◽

Clément Albergel ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Water Resource ◽

Surface Runoff ◽

Land Surface ◽

Runoff Generation ◽

Study Region ◽

Weather Forecasts ◽

Precipitation Characteristics ◽

Precipitation Estimation ◽

Model Structures ◽

Global Water

Abstract. This study focuses on the Iberian Peninsula and investigates the propagation of precipitation uncertainty, and its interaction with hydrologic modeling, in global water resource reanalysis. Analysis is based on ensemble hydrologic simulations for a period spanning 11 years (2000–2010). To simulate the hydrological variables of surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and evapotranspiration, we used four land surface models (LSMs) – JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator), ORCHIDEE (Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems), SURFEX (Surface Externalisée), and HTESSEL (Hydrology – Tiled European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts – ECMWF – Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land) – and one global hydrological model, WaterGAP3 (Water – a Global Assessment and Prognosis). Simulations were carried out for five precipitation products – CMORPH (the Climate Prediction Center Morphing technique of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA), PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks), 3B42V(7), ECMWF reanalysis, and a machine-learning-based blended product. As a reference, we used a ground-based observation-driven precipitation dataset, named SAFRAN, available at 5 km, 1 h resolution. We present relative performances of hydrologic variables for the different multi-model and multi-forcing scenarios. Overall, results reveal the complexity of the interaction between precipitation characteristics and different modeling schemes and show that uncertainties in the model simulations are attributed to both uncertainty in precipitation forcing and the model structure. Surface runoff is strongly sensitive to precipitation uncertainty, and the degree of sensitivity depends significantly on the runoff generation scheme of each model examined. Evapotranspiration fluxes are comparatively less sensitive for this study region. Finally, our results suggest that there is no single model–forcing combination that can outperform all others consistently for all variables examined and thus reinforce the fact that there are significant benefits to exploring different model structures as part of the overall modeling approaches used for water resource applications.

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Improving the representation of the prairie pothole dynamics in land surface models

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-3713 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Mohamed I. Ahmed ◽

Amin Elshorbagy ◽

Alain Pietroniro

Keyword(s):

Surface Runoff ◽

Land Surface ◽

Flow Simulation ◽

Hydrologic Model ◽

Surface Model ◽

Prairie Pothole ◽

Runoff Generation ◽

Dem Resolution ◽

Physically Based ◽

Streamflow Simulation

<p>The hydrography of the prairie basins is complicated by the existence of numerous land depressions, known as prairie potholes, which can retain a substantial amount of surface runoff. Consequently, the runoff production in the prairies follows a fill, spill, and merging mechanism, which results in a dynamic contributing area that makes the streamflow simulation challenging. Existing approaches to represent the potholes&#8217; dynamics, in different hydrological models, use either a lumped or a series of reservoirs that contribute flow after exceeding a certain storage threshold. These approaches are simplified and do not represent the actual dynamics of the potholes nor their spatial water extents. Consequently, these approaches may not be useful in capturing the potholes&#8217; complexities and may not be able to accurately simulate the complex prairie streamflow. This study advances towards more accurate and physically-based streamflow simulation in the prairies by implanting a physically-based runoff generation algorithm (Prairie Region Inundation MApping, PRIMA model) within the MESH land surface model, and is referred to as MESH-PRIMA. PRIMA is a recently developed hydrological routing model that can simulate the lateral movement of water over prairie landscape using topographic data provided via DEMs. In MESH-PRIMA, MESH handles the vertical water balance calculations, whereas PRIMA routes the water and determines the amount of water storage and surface runoff. The streamflow simulations of MESH-PRIMA (using different DEM resolution as a topographic input) and MESH with its existing conceptual pothole dynamics algorithm are tested on a number of pothole-dominated watersheds within Saskatchewan, Canada, and compared against observed flows. MESH-PRIMA provides improved streamflow and peak flow simulation, compared to that of MESH with its conceptual pothole algorithm, based on the metrics evaluated for the simulations. MESH-PRIMA shows potential for simulating the actual pothole water extents when compared against water areas obtained from remote sensing data. The use of different DEM resolution changes the resulting pothole water extent, especially for the small potholes as they are not detected in the coarse DEM. MESH-PRIMA can be considered as a hydraulic-hydrologic model that can be used for better understanding and accurate representation of the complex prairie hydrology.</p>

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An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 1: Input meteorological forcing and natural hydrological cycle modules

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-4-3535-2007 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 4 (5) ◽

pp. 3535-3582 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

N. Hanasaki ◽

S. Kanae ◽

T. Oki ◽

K. Masuda ◽

K. Motoya ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Land Surface ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

River Basins ◽

Integrated Model ◽

Surface Hydrology ◽

Meteorological Forcing ◽

Land Surface Hydrology ◽

Global Water ◽

River Routing

Abstract. An integrated global water resources model was developed consisting of six modules: land surface hydrology, river routing, crop growth, reservoir operation, environmental flow requirement estimation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. It simulates both natural and anthropogenic water flow globally (excluding Antarctica) on a daily basis at a spatial resolution of 1°×1° (longitude and latitude). The simulation period is 10 years, from 1986 to 1995. This first part of the two-feature report describes the input meteorological forcing and natural hydrological cycle modules of the integrated model, namely the land surface hydrology module and the river routing module. The input meteorological forcing was provided by the second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP2), an international land surface modeling project. Several reported shortcomings of the forcing component were improved. The land surface hydrology module was developed based on a bucket type model that simulates energy and water balance on land surfaces. Simulated runoff was compared and validated with observation-based global runoff data sets and observed streamflow records at 32 major river gauging stations around the world. Mean annual runoff agreed well with earlier studies at global, continental, and continental zonal mean scales, indicating the validity of the input meteorological data and land surface hydrology module. In individual basins, the mean bias was less than ±20% in 14 of the 32 river basins and less than ±50% in 24 of the basins. The performance was similar to the best available precedent studies with closure of energy and water. The timing of the peak in streamflow and the shape of monthly hydrographs were well simulated in most of the river basins when large lakes or reservoirs did not affect them. The results indicate that the input meteorological forcing component and the land surface hydrology module provide a framework with which to assess global water resources, with the potential application to investigate the subannual variability in water resources. GSWP2 participants are encouraged to re-run their model using this newly developed meteorological forcing input, which is in identical format to the original GSWP2 forcing input.

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Surface Runoff and Drought Assessment Using Global Water Resources Datasets - from Oum Er Rbia Basin to the Moroccan Country Scale

Water Resources Management ◽

10.1007/s11269-019-02251-6 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 34 (7) ◽

pp. 2117-2133 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Stefan Strohmeier ◽

Patricia López López ◽

Mira Haddad ◽

Vinay Nangia ◽

Mohammed Karrou ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Surface Runoff ◽

Drought Assessment ◽

Global Water

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An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 1: Model description and input meteorological forcing

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-12-1007-2008 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 1007-1025 ◽

Cited By ~ 322

Author(s):

N. Hanasaki ◽

S. Kanae ◽

T. Oki ◽

K. Masuda ◽

K. Motoya ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Land Surface ◽

Reservoir Operation ◽

Storage Capacity ◽

Environmental Flow ◽

Surface Hydrology ◽

Meteorological Forcing ◽

The World ◽

Land Surface Hydrology ◽

Global Water

Abstract. To assess global water availability and use at a subannual timescale, an integrated global water resources model was developed consisting of six modules: land surface hydrology, river routing, crop growth, reservoir operation, environmental flow requirement estimation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. The model simulates both natural and anthropogenic water flow globally (excluding Antarctica) on a daily basis at a spatial resolution of 1°×1° (longitude and latitude). This first part of the two-feature report describes the six modules and the input meteorological forcing. The input meteorological forcing was provided by the second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP2), an international land surface modeling project. Several reported shortcomings of the forcing component were improved. The land surface hydrology module was developed based on a bucket type model that simulates energy and water balance on land surfaces. The crop growth module is a relatively simple model based on concepts of heat unit theory, potential biomass, and a harvest index. In the reservoir operation module, 452 major reservoirs with >1 km3 each of storage capacity store and release water according to their own rules of operation. Operating rules were determined for each reservoir by an algorithm that used currently available global data such as reservoir storage capacity, intended purposes, simulated inflow, and water demand in the lower reaches. The environmental flow requirement module was newly developed based on case studies from around the world. Simulated runoff was compared and validated with observation-based global runoff data sets and observed streamflow records at 32 major river gauging stations around the world. Mean annual runoff agreed well with earlier studies at global and continental scales, and in individual basins, the mean bias was less than ±20% in 14 of the 32 river basins and less than ±50% in 24 basins. The error in the peak was less than ±1 mo in 19 of the 27 basins and less than ±2 mo in 25 basins. The performance was similar to the best available precedent studies with closure of energy and water. The input meteorological forcing component and the integrated model provide a framework with which to assess global water resources, with the potential application to investigate the subannual variability in water resources.

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Southern California Water Bulletin for 1953: General review of the water resources of Southern California for the water year of 1952-53 with special reference to the surface runoff for the water year of 1951-52

Open-File Report ◽

10.3133/ofr54127 ◽

1954 ◽

Author(s):

Walter Hofman ◽

R.C. Briggs ◽

W.M. Littlefield

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Special Reference ◽

Surface Runoff ◽

Southern California ◽

General Review ◽

California Water

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A Response of Snow Cover to the Climate in the Northwest Himalaya (NWH) Using Satellite Products

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs13040655 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (4) ◽

pp. 655

Author(s):

Animesh Choudhury ◽

Avinash Chand Yadav ◽

Stefania Bonafoni

Keyword(s):

Snow Cover ◽

Land Surface ◽

Significant Negative Correlation ◽

Shuttle Radar Topography Mission ◽

Vital Role ◽

Snow Cover Area ◽

Study Region ◽

Northwest Himalaya ◽

The Past ◽

Average Annual Temperature

The Himalayan region is one of the most crucial mountain systems across the globe, which has significant importance in terms of the largest depository of snow and glaciers for fresh water supply, river runoff, hydropower, rich biodiversity, climate, and many more socioeconomic developments. This region directly or indirectly affects millions of lives and their livelihoods but has been considered one of the most climatically sensitive parts of the world. This study investigates the spatiotemporal variation in maximum extent of snow cover area (SCA) and its response to temperature, precipitation, and elevation over the northwest Himalaya (NWH) during 2000–2019. The analysis uses Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/Terra 8-day composite snow Cover product (MOD10A2), MODIS/Terra/V6 daily land surface temperature product (MOD11A1), Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) precipitation product, and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) DEM product for the investigation. Modified Mann-Kendall (mMK) test and Spearman’s correlation methods were employed to examine the trends and the interrelationships between SCA and climatic parameters. Results indicate a significant increasing trend in annual mean SCA (663.88 km2/year) between 2000 and 2019. The seasonal and monthly analyses were also carried out for the study region. The Zone-wise analysis showed that the lower Himalaya (184.5 km2/year) and the middle Himalaya (232.1 km2/year) revealed significant increasing mean annual SCA trends. In contrast, the upper Himalaya showed no trend during the study period over the NWH region. Statistically significant negative correlation (−0.81) was observed between annual SCA and temperature, whereas a nonsignificant positive correlation (0.47) existed between annual SCA and precipitation in the past 20 years. It was also noticed that the SCA variability over the past 20 years has mainly been driven by temperature, whereas the influence of precipitation has been limited. A decline in average annual temperature (−0.039 °C/year) and a rise in precipitation (24.56 mm/year) was detected over the region. The results indicate that climate plays a vital role in controlling the SCA over the NWH region. The maximum and minimum snow cover frequency (SCF) was observed during the winter (74.42%) and monsoon (46.01%) season, respectively, while the average SCF was recorded to be 59.11% during the study period. Of the SCA, 54.81% had a SCF above 60% and could be considered as the perennial snow. The elevation-based analysis showed that 84% of the upper Himalaya (UH) experienced perennial snow, while the seasonal snow mostly dominated over the lower Himalaya (LH) and the middle Himalaya (MH).

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