scholarly journals Quantifying the impact of land cover changes on hydrological responses in India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaini Naha ◽  
Miguel A. Rico-Ramirez ◽  
Rafael Rosolem
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Mahanadi River ◽  
Extreme Flows ◽  
Hydrological Responses ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The objective of this study is to assess the impacts of Land Use Land Cover change on the hydrological responses of the Mahanadi river basin, a large river basin in India. Commonly, such assessments are accomplished by using distributed hydrological models in conjunction with different land use scenarios. However, these models through their complex interactions among the model parameters to generate hydrological processes, can introduce significant uncertainties to the hydrological projections. Therefore, we seek to further understand the uncertainties associated with model parameterization in those simulated hydrological responses due to different land cover scenarios. We performed a sensitivity-guided model calibration of a physically semi-distributed model, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) within a Monte Carlo Framework to generate behavioural models for subcatchments of the Mahanadi river basin. These behavioural models are then used in conjunction with historical and future land cover scenarios from the recently released, Land use Harmonisation (LUH2) to generate hydrological predictions and related uncertainties from behavioural model parameterisation. The LUH2 dataset indicates a noticeable increase in the cropland (23.3 % cover) at the expense of forest (22.65 % cover) by the end of year 2100 compared to the baseline year, 2005. As a response, simulation results indicate a median percent increase in the extreme flows (defined as the 95th percentile or higher river flow magnitude) and mean annual flows in the range of 1.8 to 11.3 % across the subcatchments. The direct conversion of forested areas to agriculture (on the order of 30,000 km2) reduces the Leaf Area Index and which subsequently reduces the Evapotranspiration (ET) and increases surface runoff. Further, the range of behavioural hydrological predictions indicated variation in the magnitudes of extreme flows simulated for the different land cover scenarios, for instance uncertainty in far future scenario ranges from 17 to 210 cumecs across subcatchments. This study indicates that the recurrent flood events occurring in the Mahanadi river basin might be influenced by the changes in LULC at the catchment scale and suggests that model parameterisation represents an uncertainty, which should be accounted for in the land-use change impact assessment.

scholarly journals Quantifying the impacts of land cover change on hydrological responses in the Mahanadi river basin in India

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (12) ◽  
pp. 6339-6357
Author(s):  
Shaini Naha ◽  
Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez ◽  
Rafael Rosolem
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Mahanadi River ◽  
Extreme Flows ◽  
Hydrological Responses ◽  
Model Parameterization

Abstract. The objective of this study is to assess the impacts of land cover change on the hydrological responses of the Mahanadi river basin, a large river basin in India. Commonly, such assessments are accomplished by using distributed hydrological models in conjunction with different land use scenarios. However, these models, through their complex interactions among the model parameters to generate hydrological processes, can introduce significant uncertainties to the hydrological projections. Therefore, we seek to further understand the uncertainties associated with model parameterization in those simulated hydrological responses due to different land cover scenarios. We performed a sensitivity-guided model calibration of a physically semi-distributed model, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, within a Monte Carlo framework to generate behavioural models that can yield equally good or acceptable model performances for subcatchments of the Mahanadi river basin. These behavioural models are then used in conjunction with historical and future land cover scenarios from the recently released Land-Use Harmonization version 2 (LUH2) dataset to generate hydrological predictions and related uncertainties from behavioural model parameterization. The LUH2 dataset indicates a noticeable increase in the cropland (23.3 % cover) at the expense of forest (22.65 % cover) by the end of year 2100 compared to the baseline year, 2005. As a response, simulation results indicate a median percent increase in the extreme flows (defined as the 95th percentile or higher river flow magnitude) and mean annual flows in the range of 1.8 % to 11.3 % across the subcatchments. The direct conversion of forested areas to agriculture (of the order of 30 000 km2) reduces the leaf area index, which subsequently reduces the evapotranspiration (ET) and increases surface runoff. Further, the range of behavioural hydrological predictions indicated variation in the magnitudes of extreme flows simulated for the different land cover scenarios; for instance, uncertainty in scenario labelled “Far Future” ranges from 17 to 210 m3 s−1 across subcatchments. This study indicates that the recurrent flood events occurring in the Mahanadi river basin might be influenced by the changes in land use/land cover (LULC) at the catchment scale and suggests that model parameterization represents an uncertainty which should be accounted for in the land use change impact assessment.

scholarly journals Quantifying the impact of land cover changes on hydrological extremes in India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaini Naha ◽  
Miguel A. Rico-Ramirez ◽  
Rafael Rosolem
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Land Cover Changes ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Mahanadi River ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Several research studies have addressed the effects of future climate changes on the hydrological regime of Mahanadi river basin located in eastern part of India. However, studies investigating the effects of future land cover changes on hydrology are limited owing to the lack of availability of projected land cover scenarios. Our study investigates how the hydrology of Mahanadi river basin would respond to the current and future land cover scenarios under a large-scale hydrological modelling framework. Both historical and future land cover scenarios from the recently released, Land use Harmonisation (LUH2) project for CMIP6, indicates cropland and forest are the major land cover types in the basin with a noticeable increase in the cropland (23.3 %) at the expense of forest (22.65 %) by the end of year 2100 compared to the baseline year, 2005. A physically semi-distributed model, the Variable Infiltration Capacity has been set up and implemented over the Mahanadi river basin system for the time period 1990–2010. The uncertain model parameters were subjected to Sensitivity Analysis and calibrated within a Monte Carlo framework. The best set of calibrated models obtained is used in conjunction with the harmonized set of present and future land use scenarios from LUH2 at 25 km by 25 km resolution to generate an ensemble of model simulations that captures a range of plausible impacts of land cover changes on discharge and other hydrological components of the basin. Overall, model simulation results indicate an increase in the extreme flows (i.e., 95th percentile or higher) in the range of 0.12 to 21 % at multiple subcatchments within the basin. This increase can be attributed to the direct conversion of forested areas to agriculture (on the order of 30,000 km2) that has reduced the Leaf Area Index and subsequently reduces the Evapotranspiration (ET). These changes ultimately affect other water balance components at the land surface, resulting in an increase in surface runoff and baseflow, respectively.

scholarly journals Effect of Land Use Land Cover and Climate Change on River Flow and Soil Loss in Didessa River Basin, South West Blue Nile, Ethiopia

Hydrology ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kinati Chimdessa ◽  
Shoeb Quraishi ◽  
Asfaw Kebede ◽  
Tena Alamirew
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
Soil Loss ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Soil Losses

In the Didessa river basin, which is found in Ethiopia, the human population number is increasing at an alarming rate. The conversion of forests, shrub and grasslands into cropland has increased in parallel with the population increase. The land use/land cover change (LULCC) that has been undertaken in the river basin combined with climate change may have affected the Didessa river flow and soil loss. Therefore, this study was designed to assess the impact of LULCC on the Didessa river flow and soil loss under historical and future climates. Land use/land cover (LULC) of the years 1986, 2001 and 2015 were independently combined with the historical climate to assess their individual impacts on river flow and soil loss. Further, the impact of future climates under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios on river flow and soil loss was assessed by combining the pathways with the 2015 LULC. A physically based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT2012) model in the ArcGIS 10.4.1 interface was used to realize the purpose. Results of the study revealed that LULCC that occurred between 1986 and 2015 resulted in increased average sediment yield by 20.9 t ha−1 yr−1. Climate change under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 combined with 2015 LULC increased annual average soil losses by 31.3, 50.9 and 83.5 t ha−1 yr−1 compared with the 2015 LULC under historical climate data. It was also found that 13.4%, 47.1% and 87.0% of the total area may experience high soil loss under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Annual soil losses of five top-priority sub catchments range from 62.8 to 57.7 per hectare. Nash Stuncliffe Simulation efficiency (NSE) and R2 values during model calibration and validation indicated good agreement between observed and simulated values both for flow and sediment yield.

scholarly journals Land Use/Land Cover (LU/LC) Changes and its impact on Soil Organic Carbon Stock in Killiar River Basin, Kerala, India: A Geospatial Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 662-664
Author(s):  
Sabu Joseph ◽  
Rahul R ◽  
Sukanya S
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Carbon Stock ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon Stock ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Organic Carbon Stock

The changes in the pattern of land use and land cover (LU/LC) have remarkable consequences on ecosystem functioning and natural resources dynamics. The present study analyzes the spatial pattern of LU/LC change detection along the Killiar River Basin (KRB), a major tributary of Karamana river in Thiruvananthapuram district, Kerala (India), over a period of 64 years (1957-2021) through Remote Sensing and GIS approach. The rationale of the study is to identify and classify LU/LC changes in KRB using the Survey of India (SOI) toposheet (1:50,000) of 1957, LISS-III imagery of 2005, Landsat 8 OLI & TIRS imagery of 2021 and further to scrutinize the impact of LU/LC conversion on Soil Organic Carbon stock in the study area. Five major LU/LC classes, viz., agriculture land, built-up, forest, wasteland and water bodies were characterized from available data. Within the study period, built-up area and wastelands showed a substantial increase of 51.51% and 15.67% respectively. Thus, the general trend followed is the increase in built-up and wastelands area which results in the decrease of all other LU/LC classes. Based on IPCC guidelines, total soil organic carbon (SOC) stock of different land-use types was estimated and was 1292.72 Mt C in 1957, 562.65 Mt C in 2005 and it reduced to 152.86 Mt C in 2021. This decrease is mainly due to various anthropogenic activities, mainly built-up activities. This conversion for built-up is at par with the rising population, and over-exploitation of natural and agricultural resources is increasing every year.

Hydrological responses to human-induced land use/land cover changes in the Gidabo River basin, Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 640-655
Author(s):  
Henok Mekonnen Aragaw ◽  
Manmohan Kumar Goel ◽  
Surendra Kumar Mishra
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Land Cover Changes ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Hydrological Responses

scholarly journals Estimation of the Effect of Changes in Forest Associations on Runoff Processes in Basins: Case Study in the Hron and Topľa River Basins

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Rončák ◽  
Kamila Hlavčová ◽  
Tamara Látková
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Global Climate Changes ◽  
Wetspa Model ◽  
Runoff Regime ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Distributed rainfall-runoff model simulations are often used to evaluate the impact of changes on the generation of runoff. These models have the advantage of reflecting the effects of land use on spatially distributed model parameters. The article deals with changes in forest associations as a result of global climate changes. In this article the WetSpa model was used for estimating the impact of forest changes on the runoff regime in the Hron and Topla river basins, with an emphasis on the parameterization of the land cover properties in the runoff simulations. The parameters of the model were estimated using climate data and three digital map layers: a land-use map, soil map and digital elevation model. This work contains two land use change scenarios of forest associations and also two scenarios of global climate change. Both types of scenarios of changes were prepared, and the runoff under the new conditions was simulated.

scholarly journals Application of the Frier Distributed Model for Estimating the Impact of Land use Changes on the Water Balance in Selected Basins in Slovakia

2009 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 213-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver Horvát ◽  
Kamila Hlavčová ◽  
Silvia Kohnová ◽  
Michal Danko
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Hydrologic Processes ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

Application of the Frier Distributed Model for Estimating the Impact of Land use Changes on the Water Balance in Selected Basins in SlovakiaIn this study, the FRIER rainfall-runoff model with distributed parameters was developed to assess changes in runoff and water balance due to changes in land use and climate. The water balance was calculated at 3 levels: on the surface and in unsaturated and saturated zones. Six basins from the central and eastern parts of Slovakia were selected on the basis of their similar size, but different topography, land use, soil texture and climate: the upper Hornád, the upper Hron, the Poprad, the Rimava, the Slaná and the Torysa River basins. Model parameters were estimated using data from the period from June 1998 to May 2000 in daily time steps. The differences and similarities of the hydrologic processes in individual basins were investigated during the calibration period. Several scenarios of changes in land use and two simple scenarios of changes in climate were developed to estimate the impact of these changes on water balance and runoff. The changes in the hydrological regime were compared and discussed.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF LAND USE LAND COVER CHANGE ON RUN OFF GENERATION IN TUNGABHADRA RIVER BASIN

2018 ◽  
Vol IV-5 ◽  
pp. 367-374 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Venkatesh ◽  
H. Ramesh
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
North East ◽  
The Impact

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Streamflow can be affected by a number of aspects related to land use and can vary promptly as those factors change. Urbanization, deforestation, mining, agricultural practices and economic growth are some of the factors related to these land use changes which alter the stream flow. In the present study, the impact of land use land cover change (LULC) on stream flow is studied by using SWAT model for Tungabhadra river basin, located in the state of Karnataka, India. Tungabhadra river originates in the Western Ghats of Karnataka and flows towards north-east and joins the river Krishna. The land use maps of 1993, 2003 and 2018 are used for assessing the stream flow changes with respect to LULC. Calibration and validation of the model for streamflow was carried out using the SUFI-2 algorithm in SWAT-CUP for the years 1983&amp;ndash;1993 and 1994&amp;ndash;2000 respectively. Statistical parameters namely Coefficient of Determination (R<sup>2</sup>) &amp;amp; Nash–Sutcliffe (N-S) were used to assess the efficiency and performance of the SWAT model. It was found that the observed and simulated streamflow values are closely matching, which in turn projects that the model results are acceptable. The calibrated model was used for simulation of future dynamic land use scenario to assess the impact on streamflow. The results can be used for conservation of water and soil management.</p>

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