scholarly journals Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 2903-2919 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sahani Pathiraja ◽  
Daniela Anghileri ◽  
Paolo Burlando ◽  
Ashish Sharma ◽  
Lucy Marshall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Parameter Method ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Model Structure ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Time Varying Parameter ◽  
Invariant Parameter

Abstract. Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2) in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD) that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors) contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

scholarly journals Time varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sahani Pathiraja ◽  
Daniela Anghileri ◽  
Paolo Burlando ◽  
Ashish Sharma ◽  
Lucy Marshall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Model Structure ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Time Varying Parameter ◽  
Paired Control ◽  
Invariant Parameter

Abstract. Rapid population and economic growth in South-East-Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modelling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important, and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed Data Assimilation based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium sized catchment (2880 km2) in Northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of time varying parameter methods. The framework was utilized with two conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD) that gave good quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changed land cover conditions. It also serves as an effective tool for separating the influence of climatic and land use change in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

scholarly journals Anomaly in the rainfall-runoff behaviour of the Meuse catchment. Climate, land use, or land use management?

2008 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 1787-1819 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Fenicia ◽  
H. H. G. Savenije ◽  
Y. Avdeeva
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Land Use Management ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
The Way

Abstract. An anomaly has been found in the rainfall runoff behaviour of the Meuse. Ninety years of rainfall-runoff simulations show a consistent underestimation of the runoff in the period between 1930 and 1965. Different authors have debated possible causes for the anomaly, including climatic variability, land use change and data errors. None of the authors considered the way in which the land is used by for instance agricultural and forestry practises. This paper focuses on the possible effects of land use and land use management on the hydrological response of the Meuse catchment. In absence of detailed information on land use over the observation period, we adopted a fully "top-down" approach to the problem. The approach consists of a dynamic evaluation of a conceptual hydrological model and the interpretation of the temporal trends of model parameters. It appears that land use has had a considerable impact on the hydrological behaviour of the Meuse catchment. The time lag of the catchment has reduced markedly over time, possibly related to more intensive drainage and river training works. Moreover we hypothesise that forest rotation has had a significant impact on the evaporation of the catchment. These results contrast with previous studies, where the effect of land use change on the hydrological behaviour of the Meuse catchment was considered negligible, mainly because there was not sufficient change in land cover to account for it. Here we hypothesise that in the Meuse it was not the change of land cover that was responsible for hydrological change, but rather the way the land was managed.

scholarly journals Anomaly in the rainfall-runoff behaviour of the Meuse catchment. Climate, land-use, or land-use management?

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1727-1737 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Fenicia ◽  
H. H. G. Savenije ◽  
Y. Avdeeva
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Time Variability ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Over Time ◽  
The Way

Abstract. The objective of this paper is to investigate the time variability of catchment characteristics in the Meuse basin through its effect on catchment response. The approach uses a conceptual model to represent rainfall-runoff behaviour of this catchment, and evaluates possible time-dependence of model parameters. The main hypothesis is that conceptual model parameters, although not measurable quantities, are representative of specific catchment attributes (e.g. geology, land-use, land management, topography). Hence, we assume that eventual trends in model parameters are representative of catchment attributes that may have changed over time. The available hydrological record involves ninety years of data, starting in 1911. During this period the Meuse catchment has undergone significant modifications. The catchment structural modifications, although documented, are not available as "hard-data". Hence, our results should be considered as "plausible hypotheses". The main motivation of this work is the "anomaly" found in the rainfall runoff behaviour of the Meuse basin, where ninety years of rainfall-runoff simulations show a consistent overestimation of the runoff in the period between 1930 and 1965. Different authors have debated possible causes for the "anomaly", including climatic variability, land-use change and data errors. None of the authors considered the way in which the land is used by for instance agricultural and forestry practises. This aspect influenced the model design, which has been configured to account for different evaporation demand of growing forest. As a result of our analysis, we conclude that the lag time of the catchment has decreased significantly over time, which we attribute to more intensive drainage and river training works. Furthermore, we hypothesise that forest rotation has had a significant impact on the evaporation of the catchment. These results contrast with previous studies, where the effect of land-use change on the hydrological behaviour of the Meuse catchment was considered negligible, mainly because there was not sufficient change in land cover to account for it. Here we hypothesise that in the Meuse it was not the change of land cover that was responsible for hydrological change, but rather the way the land was managed.

scholarly journals Impact Assessments of Rainfall–Runoff Characteristics Response Based on Land Use Change via Hydrological Simulation

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 866
Author(s):  
Minmin Zhou ◽  
Simin Qu ◽  
Xueqiu Chen ◽  
Peng Shi ◽  
Shijin Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Established Fact ◽  
Kurtosis Coefficient

The hydrology response was studied considering the established fact of land use change in Dapoling basin. The whole period was divided into two (1965–1985 and 1986–2012) according to the major land use and land cover change in this region. Xinanjiang model was used to simulate discharge data in the two periods. The hydrologic response to the change could be evaluated by inspecting the response of model parameters and flood elements. The results show that the lag time varied, and the hydrologic elements including the mean runoff depth, flood peak and kurtosis coefficient varied with the rainfall depth. This result is significant for studying the response of runoff characteristic from land use and land cover change.

scholarly journals Assessment of Streamflow Simulation for a Tropical Forested Catchment Using Dynamic TOPMODEL—Dynamic fluxEs and ConnectIvity for Predictions of HydRology (DECIPHeR) Framework and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 317
Author(s):  
Fadhliani Umar ◽  
Zed Zulkafli ◽  
Badronnisa Yusuf ◽  
Siti Nurhidayu
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Peak Flow ◽  
Uncertainty Estimation ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Behavioral Threshold ◽  
Continuous Simulation ◽  
Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation ◽  
Streamflow Simulation

Rainfall runoff modeling has been a subject of interest for decades due to a need to understand a catchment system for management, for example regarding extreme event occurrences such as flooding. Tropical catchments are particularly prone to the hazards of extreme precipitation and the internal drivers of change in the system, such as deforestation and land use change. A model framework of dynamic TOPMODEL, DECIPHeR v1—considering the flexibility, modularity, and portability—and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method are both used in this study. They reveal model performance for the streamflow simulation in a tropical catchment, i.e., the Kelantan River in Malaysia, that is prone to flooding and experiences high rates of land use change. Thirty-two years’ continuous simulation at a daily time scale simulation along with uncertainty analysis resulted in a Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) score of 0.42 from the highest ranked parameter set, while 25.35% of the measurement falls within the uncertainty boundary based on a behavioral threshold NSE 0.3. The performance and behavior of the model in the continuous simulation suggests a limited ability of the model to represent the system, particularly along the low flow regime. In contrast, the simulation of eight peak flow events achieves moderate to good fit, with the four peak flow events simulation returning an NSE > 0.5. Nonetheless, the parameter scatter plot from both the continuous simulation and analyses of peak flow events indicate unidentifiability of all model parameters. This may be attributable to the catchment modeling scale. The results demand further investigation regarding the heterogeneity of parameters and calibration at multiple scales.

scholarly journals Impacts of changes in land use and land cover on atmospheric chemistry and air quality over the 21st century

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 15469-15495 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Wu ◽  
L. J. Mickley ◽  
J. O. Kaplan ◽  
D. J. Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Secondary Organic Aerosols ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Organic Aerosols ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
Anthropogenic Land Use

Abstract. The effects of future land use and land cover change on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and air quality are largely unknown. To investigate the potential effects associated with future changes in vegetation driven by atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate, and anthropogenic land use over the 21st century, we performed a series of model experiments combining a general circulation model with a dynamic global vegetation model and an atmospheric chemical-transport model. Our results indicate that climate- and CO2-induced changes in vegetation composition and density could lead to decreases in summer afternoon surface ozone of up to 10 ppb over large areas of the northern mid-latitudes. This is largely driven by the substantial increases in ozone dry deposition associated with changes in the composition of temperate and boreal forests where conifer forests are replaced by those dominated by broadleaf tree types, as well as a CO2-driven increase in vegetation density. Climate-driven vegetation changes over the period 2000–2100 lead to general increases in isoprene emissions, globally by 15 % in 2050 and 36 % in 2100. These increases in isoprene emissions result in decreases in surface ozone concentrations where the NOx levels are low, such as in remote tropical rainforests. However, over polluted regions, such as the northeastern United States, ozone concentrations are calculated to increase with higher isoprene emissions in the future. Increases in biogenic emissions also lead to higher concentrations of secondary organic aerosols, which increase globally by 10 % in 2050 and 20 % in 2100. Surface concentrations of secondary organic aerosols are calculated to increase by up to 1 μg m−3 for large areas in Eurasia. When we use a scenario of future anthropogenic land use change, we find less increase in global isoprene emissions due to replacement of higher-emitting forests by lower-emitting cropland. The global atmospheric burden of secondary organic aerosols changes little by 2100 when we account for future land use change, but both secondary organic aerosols and ozone show large regional changes at the surface.

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