scholarly journals Impact of the quality of hydrological forecasts on the management and revenue of hydroelectric reservoirs – a conceptual approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 1033-1052
Author(s):  
Manon Cassagnole ◽  
Maria-Helena Ramos ◽  
Ioanna Zalachori ◽  
Guillaume Thirel ◽  
Rémy Garçon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Optimization Model ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Systematic Evaluation ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Conceptual Approach ◽  
Hydroelectric Reservoirs ◽  
Streamflow Forecasts ◽  
Operational Systems ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The improvement of a forecasting system and the continuous evaluation of its quality are recurrent steps in operational practice. However, the systematic evaluation of forecast value or usefulness for better decision-making is less frequent, even if it is also essential to guide strategic planning and investments. In the hydropower sector, several operational systems use medium-range hydrometeorological forecasts (up to 7–10 d ahead) and energy price predictions as input to models that optimize hydropower production. The operation of hydropower systems, including the management of water stored in reservoirs, is thus partially impacted by weather and hydrological conditions. Forecast value can be quantified by the economic gains obtained with the optimization of operations informed by the forecasts. In order to assess how much improving the quality of hydrometeorological forecasts will improve their economic value, it is essential to understand how the system and its optimization model are sensitive to sequences of input forecasts of different quality. This paper investigates the impact of 7 d streamflow forecasts of different quality on the management of hydroelectric reservoirs and the economic gains generated from a linear programming optimization model. The study is based on a conceptual approach. Flows from 10 catchments in France are synthetically generated over a 4-year period to obtain forecasts of different quality in terms of accuracy and reliability. These forecasts define the inflows to 10 hydroelectric reservoirs, which are conceptually parameterized. Relationships between forecast quality and economic value (hydropower revenue) show that forecasts with a recurrent positive bias (overestimation) and low accuracy generate the highest economic losses when compared to the reference management system where forecasts are equal to observed inflows. The smallest losses are observed for forecast systems with underdispersion reliability bias, while forecast systems with negative bias (underestimation) show intermediate losses. Overall, the losses (which amount to millions of Euros) represent approximately 1 % to 3 % of the revenue over the study period. Besides revenue, the quality of the forecasts also impacts spillage, stock evolution, production hours and production rates, with systematic over- and underestimations being able to generate some extreme reservoir management situations.

scholarly journals Impact of the quality of hydrological forecasts on the managementand revenue of hydroelectric reservoirs – a conceptual approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manon Cassagnole ◽  
Maria-Helena Ramos ◽  
Ioanna Zalachori ◽  
Guillaume Thirel ◽  
Rémy Garçon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Optimization Model ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Systematic Evaluation ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Conceptual Approach ◽  
Hydroelectric Reservoirs ◽  
Streamflow Forecasts ◽  
Operational Systems ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The improvement of a forecasting system and the continuous evaluation of its quality are recurrent steps in operational practice. However, the systematic evaluation of forecast value or usefulness for better decision-making is less frequent, even if it is also essential to guide strategic planning and investments. In the hydropower sector, several operational systems use medium-range hydrometeorological forecasts (up to 7–10 days ahead) and energy price predictions as input to models that optimize hydropower production. The operation of hydropower systems, including the management of water stored in reservoirs, is thus partially impacted by weather and hydrological conditions. Forecast value can be quantified by the economic gains obtained with the optimization of operations informed by the forecasts. In order to assess how much improving the quality of hydrometeorological forecasts will also improve their economic value, it is also essential to understand how the system and its optimization model are sensitive to sequences of input forecasts of different quality. This paper investigates the impact of 7-day streamflow forecasts of different quality on the management of hydroelectric reservoirs and the economic gains generated from a linear programming optimization model. The study is based on a conceptual approach, where inflows to 10 reservoirs in France are synthetically generated over a 4-year period to obtain forecasts of different quality in terms of accuracy and reliability. Relationships between forecast quality and economic value (hydropower revenue) show that forecasts with a recurrent positive bias (overestimation) and low accuracy generate the highest economic losses, when compared to the reference management system where forecasts are equal to observed inflows. The smallest losses are observed for forecast systems with under-dispersion reliability bias, while forecast systems with negative bias (underestimation) show intermediate losses. Overall, the losses represent approximately 3 % to 1 % (in M€) of the revenue over the study period. Besides revenue, the quality of the forecasts also impacts spillage, stock evolution, production hours and production rates, with systematic over- and under-estimations being able to generate some extreme reservoir management situations.

Understanding how hydrological forecast quality impacts the management of hydroelectric reservoirs

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria-Helena Ramos ◽  
Manon Cassagnole ◽  
Ioanna Zalachori ◽  
Guillaume Thirel ◽  
Rémy Garçon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Value ◽  
Optimal Placement ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Positive Bias ◽  
Production Rates ◽  
Hydroelectric Reservoirs ◽  
Hydroelectric Reservoir ◽  
Streamflow Forecasts ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Forecast Quality

<p>The evaluation of inflow forecast quality and value is essential in hydroelectric reservoir management. Forecast value can be quantified by the economic gains obtained when optimizing hydroelectric reservoir operations informed by weather and hydrological forecasts. This study [1] investigates the impact of 7-day streamflow forecasts on the optimal management of hydroelectric reservoirs and the associated economic gains. Flows from ten catchments in France are synthetically generated over a 4-year period to obtain forecasts of different quality in terms of accuracy and reliability. These forecasts define the inflows to ten hydroelectric reservoirs, which are conceptually parametrized. Each reservoir is associated to a downstream power plant with yield 1 which produces electricity valued with a price signal. The system is modelled using linear programming. Relationships between forecast quality and economic value (hydropower revenue) show that forecasts with a recurrent positive bias (overestimation) and low accuracy generate the highest economic losses when compared to the reference management system where forecasts are equal to observed inflows. The smallest losses are observed for forecast systems with under-dispersion reliability bias, while forecast systems with negative bias (underestimation) show intermediate losses. Overall, the losses (which amount to millions of Euros) represent approximately 1% to 3% of the revenue over the study period. Besides revenue, the forecast quality also impacts spillage, stock evolution, production hours and production rates. For instance, forecasting systems that present a positive bias result in a tendency of operations to keep the storage at lower levels so that the reservoir can be able to handle the high volumes expected. This impacts the optimal placement of production at the best hours (i.e. when prices are higher) and the opportunity to produce electricity at higher production rates. Our study showed that when using biased forecasting systems, hydropower production is not only planned during more hours at lower rates but also at hours with lower median prices of electricity. The modelling approaches adopted in our study are certainly far from representing all the complexity of hydropower management under uncertainty. However, they proved to be adapted to obtaining the first orders of magnitude of the value of inflow forecasts in elementary situations.</p><p>[1] https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-410</p>

What value do mangroves have in reducing the cost of storm surges?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Thomas ◽  
Siddharth Narayan ◽  
Joss Matthewman ◽  
Christine Shepard ◽  
Laura Geselbracht ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Catastrophe Modelling ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

<p>With coastlines becoming increasingly urbanised worldwide, the economic risk posed by storm surges to coastal communities has never been greater. Given the financial and ecological costs of manmade coastal defences, the past few years have seen growing interest in the effectiveness of natural coastal “defences” in reducing the risk of flooding to coastal properties, but estimating their actual economic value in reducing storm surge risk remains a challenging subject.</p><p>In this study, we estimate the value of mangroves in reducing annual losses to property from storm surges along a large stretch of coastline in Florida (USA), by employing a catastrophe modelling approach widely used in the insurance industry. We use a hydrodynamic coastal flood model coupled to a property loss model and a large property exposure dataset to estimate annual economic losses from hurricane-driven storm surges in Collier County, a hurricane-prone part of Florida. We then estimate the impact that removing mangroves in the region would have on average annual losses (AAL) caused by coastal flooding. We find that mangroves reduce AAL to properties behind them by over 25%, and that these benefits are distributed very heterogeneously along the coastline. Mangrove presence can also act to enhance the storm surge risk in areas where development has occurred seaward of mangroves.</p><p>In addition to looking at annual losses, we also focus on the storm surge caused by a specific severe event in Florida, based on Hurricane Irma (2017), and we estimate that existing mangroves reduced economic property damage by hundreds of millions of USD, and reduced coastal flooding for hundreds of thousands of people.</p><p>Together these studies aim to financially quantify some of the risk reduction services provided by natural defences in terms of reducing the cost of coastal flooding, and show that these services can be included in a catastrophe modelling framework commonly used in the insurance industry.</p>

Formation of the Economic Model and the Impact of Economic Factors on the Health of Russian Population

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 2557
Author(s):  
Tamara G. ROMANOVA ◽  
Valentina D. BATOMUNKUEVA ◽  
Tatiana K. GYRGENOVA ◽  
Nataliya V. MONGOLOVA ◽  
Roman Zh. TSYDYPOV
Keyword(s):  
Federal District ◽  
The State ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Main Task ◽  
Public Benefit ◽  
Level Model ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

The article is about the influence of economic factors on the health quality of the population as a public benefit. Health of the individual has an important role in national economy, both in processes of formation of public health, and in reproduction of quality of a manpower. The review of the indicators of evaluation test of health of the population applied in the Russian practice is given in article. Health of the population and economy of the state have close interrelation and interdependence: not only the economy influences health of the population, but also health of the population affects the economy of the state. The technique allowing to assess economic damages from loss of health on the basis of which economic losses from mortality of the population at working-age in Siberian Federal District are estimated is presented. The economic three-level model of health upgrading of the population allows to reveal paths of health upgrading for improvement of economy in the country is developed. The three-level model reflects preventive character with obligatory selection of the measures accompanying achievement of the main task – to upgrade the population health as the public benefit and to increase the level of economy.

scholarly journals The impact of tourism across the Taiwan Strait on the Taiwanese identity

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 52
Author(s):  
Qianqian Li
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Taiwan Strait ◽  
Cultural Value ◽  
Taiwanese Identity ◽  
Cultural Alienation ◽  
The Taiwan Strait ◽  
Political Value ◽  
The Impact

Nowadays, the search for identity in Taiwan has been more significant today compared to the past because political parties have been attempting to use Taiwanese identity to impact the political loyalty, the democratization as well as language. Based on current situation of tourism cross-Straits, this paper respectively analyzes its economic value, political value as well as cultural value on Taiwanese identity.  This paper finds that due to a series of strategies adopted by Tsai’ government, tourism does not make a big difference in Taiwan’s economy, hence, the interdependence of tourism does not remarkably diminish Taiwanese identity from the perspective of economic value. Furthermore, according to the current perceptions of Taiwanese to Mainland tourists, tourism across Taiwan Strait makes slight influence on Taiwanese identity. Consequently, the current effect of using tourism as an economic lever to encourage political unification is extremely rough and tenuous. Besides,  to some extent, currently tourism is likely to produce greater social and cultural alienation among Taiwanese, which makes a contribution to boost Taiwanese identity. However, the result can be reverse with the current improvement of education and the quality of Chinese and admiration of China’s remarkable development.

Developmental pharmacokinetics of opioids in neonates

2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karel Allegaert, MD, PhD ◽  
Sinno H. Simons, MD, PhD ◽  
Christine Vanhole, MD, PhD ◽  
Dick Tibboel, MD, PhD
Keyword(s):  
Interindividual Variability ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Systematic Evaluation ◽  
Long Term Outcomes ◽  
Term Neonates ◽  
Effective Administration ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
The Impact

Recognition and treatment of pain are now important indicators of the quality of care being delivered to neonates. However, population-specific characteristics have to be considered, necessitating an integrated, population-specific approach. Such an approach starts with a systematic evaluation of pain, using a validated pain-assessment instrument, and should be followed by effec-tive interventions, mainly based on appropriate, i.e, safe and effective, administration of analgesics. We will illustrate the impact of age on the pharmacokinetics and metabolism of opioids using recently collected and reported observations of tramadol disposition in early neonatal life. Although distribution volume and clearance display age-dependent maturation, it is important to recognize that important, unexplained interindividual variability in drug metabolism is still observed. Research questions in the field of developmental pharmacokinetics of opioids should focus on covariables of relevance in the interindividual variability of both pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of opioids in neonates and on long-term outcomes in preterm and term neonates to whom opioids were administered, with regard to behavioral consequences and effects on pain thresholds.

scholarly journals A Systematic Evaluation of the Impact of STRICTA and CONSORT Recommendations on Quality of Reporting for Acupuncture Trials

PLoS ONE ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. e1577 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie L. Prady ◽  
Stewart J. Richmond ◽  
Veronica M. Morton ◽  
Hugh MacPherson
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Evaluation ◽  
Quality Of Reporting ◽  
The Impact

Impact of Accountable Care Organizations on Utilization, Care, and Outcomes: A Systematic Review

2017 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 255-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brystana G. Kaufman ◽  
B. Steven Spivack ◽  
Sally C. Stearns ◽  
Paula H. Song ◽  
Emily C. O’Brien
Keyword(s):  
Service Use ◽  
The United States ◽  
Emergency Department Visits ◽  
Accountable Care Organizations ◽  
Systematic Evaluation ◽  
Accountable Care ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Outcomes Of Care ◽  
The Impact

Since 2010, more than 900 accountable care organizations (ACOs) have formed payment contracts with public and private insurers in the United States; however, there has not been a systematic evaluation of the evidence studying impacts of ACOs on care and outcomes across payer types. This review evaluates the quality of evidence regarding the association of public and private ACOs with health service use, processes, and outcomes of care. The 42 articles identified studied ACO contracts with Medicare ( N = 24 articles), Medicaid ( N = 5), commercial ( N = 11), and all payers ( N = 2). The most consistent associations between ACO implementation and outcomes across payer types were reduced inpatient use, reduced emergency department visits, and improved measures of preventive care and chronic disease management. The seven studies evaluating patient experience or clinical outcomes of care showed no evidence that ACOs worsen outcomes of care; however, the impact on patient care and outcomes should continue to be monitored.

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