What value do mangroves have in reducing the cost of storm surges?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Thomas ◽  
Siddharth Narayan ◽  
Joss Matthewman ◽  
Christine Shepard ◽  
Laura Geselbracht ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Catastrophe Modelling ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

<p>With coastlines becoming increasingly urbanised worldwide, the economic risk posed by storm surges to coastal communities has never been greater. Given the financial and ecological costs of manmade coastal defences, the past few years have seen growing interest in the effectiveness of natural coastal “defences” in reducing the risk of flooding to coastal properties, but estimating their actual economic value in reducing storm surge risk remains a challenging subject.</p><p>In this study, we estimate the value of mangroves in reducing annual losses to property from storm surges along a large stretch of coastline in Florida (USA), by employing a catastrophe modelling approach widely used in the insurance industry. We use a hydrodynamic coastal flood model coupled to a property loss model and a large property exposure dataset to estimate annual economic losses from hurricane-driven storm surges in Collier County, a hurricane-prone part of Florida. We then estimate the impact that removing mangroves in the region would have on average annual losses (AAL) caused by coastal flooding. We find that mangroves reduce AAL to properties behind them by over 25%, and that these benefits are distributed very heterogeneously along the coastline. Mangrove presence can also act to enhance the storm surge risk in areas where development has occurred seaward of mangroves.</p><p>In addition to looking at annual losses, we also focus on the storm surge caused by a specific severe event in Florida, based on Hurricane Irma (2017), and we estimate that existing mangroves reduced economic property damage by hundreds of millions of USD, and reduced coastal flooding for hundreds of thousands of people.</p><p>Together these studies aim to financially quantify some of the risk reduction services provided by natural defences in terms of reducing the cost of coastal flooding, and show that these services can be included in a catastrophe modelling framework commonly used in the insurance industry.</p>

Pluvial flood catastrophe modelling: a trans-disciplinary approach.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstantinos Karagiorgos ◽  
Daniel Knos ◽  
Jan Haas ◽  
Sven Halldin ◽  
Barbara Blumenthal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Effective Prevention ◽  
The Public ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Catastrophe Modelling ◽  
The Impact

<p>Pluvial floods are one of the most significant natural hazards in Europe causing severe damage to urban areas. Following the projected increase in extreme precipitation and the ongoing urbanization, these events play an important role in the ongoing flood risk management discussion and provoke serious risk to the public as well as to the insurance sector. However, this type of flood, remains a poorly documented phenomenon. To address this gap, Swedish Pluvial Modelling Analysis and Safety Handling (SPLASH) project aims to develop new methods and types of data that improve the possibility to value flood risk in Swedish municipalities by collaboration between different disciplines.</p><p>SPLASH project allows to investigating the impact of heavy precipitation along the entire risk modelling chain, ultimate needed for effective prevention. This study presents a pluvial flood catastrophe modelling framework to identify and assess hazard, exposure and vulnerability in urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating ‘rainfall-damage’ patterns, flood inundation modelling, vulnerability tools and risk management. The project is developed in the ‘OASIS Loss Modelling Framework’ platform, jointly with end-users from the public sector and the insurance industry.</p><p>The Swedish case study indicates that the framework presented can be considered as an important decision making tool, by establishing an area for collaboration between academia; insurance businesses and rescue services, to reduce long-term disaster risk in Sweden.</p>

scholarly journals Simulation of storm surge inundation under different typhoon intensity scenarios: case study of Pingyang County, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 2777-2790
Author(s):  
Xianwu Shi ◽  
Pubing Yu ◽  
Zhixing Guo ◽  
Zhilin Sun ◽  
Fuyuan Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Water Depth ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Astronomical Tide ◽  
Evacuation Plans ◽  
Typhoon Intensity ◽  
Typhoon Tracks ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. China is one of the countries that is most seriously affected by storm surges. In recent years, storm surges in coastal areas of China have caused huge economic losses and a large number of human casualties. Knowledge of the inundation range and water depth of storm surges under different typhoon intensities could assist predisaster risk assessment and making evacuation plans, as well as provide decision support for responding to storm surges. Taking Pingyang County in Zhejiang Province as a case study area, parameters including typhoon tracks, radius of maximum wind speed, astronomical tide, and upstream flood runoff were determined for different typhoon intensities. Numerical simulations were conducted using these parameters to investigate the inundation range and water depth distribution of storm surges in Pingyang County considering the impact of seawall collapse under five different intensity scenarios (corresponding to minimum central pressure values equal to 915, 925, 935, 945, and 965 hPa). The inundated area ranged from 103.51 to 233.16 km2 for the most intense typhoon. The proposed method could be easily adopted in various coastal counties and serves as an effective tool for decision-making in storm surge disaster risk reduction practices.

scholarly journals Simulation of storm surge inundation under different typhoon intensity scenarios: Case study of Pingyang County, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianwu Shi ◽  
Pubing Yu ◽  
Zhixing Guo ◽  
Fuyuan Chen ◽  
Xiuguang Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Water Depth ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Astronomical Tide ◽  
Evacuation Plans ◽  
Northern Areas ◽  
Typhoon Intensity ◽  
Typhoon Tracks ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. China is one of the countries that are most seriously affected by storm surges. In recent years, storm surges in coastal areas of China have caused huge economic losses and a large number of human casualties. Knowledge of the inundation range and water depth of storm surges under different typhoon intensities could assist pre-disaster risk assessment and making evacuation plans, as well as provide decision support for responding to storm surges. Based on historical typhoon-induced storm surges in the study area of Pingyang County in Zhejiang Province, China, key parameters including typhoon tracks, radius of maximum wind speed, astronomical tide, and upstream flood runoff were determined for different typhoon intensities. Numerical simulations were conducted using these parameters to investigate the inundation range and water depth distribution of storm surges in Pingyang County under five different intensity scenarios (915, 925, 935, 945, and 965 hPa) with consideration of the impact of seawall collapse. The simulation results show that the range of storm surge inundation expands with increasing typhoon intensity. The scenario with the most intense typhoon (915 hPa) had the most adverse track, with an associated area of inundation of 233 km2 that included most areas of the town of Aojiang, eastern areas of Wanquan, northern areas of Songbu, as well as parts of Kunyang and Shuitou.

IMPACT ASSESSMENT ON STORM SURGE RISKS TO CONTAINERS CONSIDERING GLOBAL WARMING

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Kei Horie ◽  
Kei Horie
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Risk Maps ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Vulnerability Functions

Container yards tend to be located along waterfronts that are exposed to high risk of storm surges. However, risk assessment tools such as vulnerability functions and risk maps for containers have not been sufficiently developed. In addition, damage due to storm surges is expected to increase owing to global warming. This paper aims to assess storm surge impact due to global warming for containers located at three major bays in Japan. First, we developed vulnerability functions for containers against storm surges using an engineering approach. Second, we simulated storm surges at three major bays using the SuWAT model and taking global warming into account. Finally, we developed storm surge risk maps for containers based on current and future situations using the vulnerability function and simulated inundation depth. As a result, we revealed the impact of global warming on storm surge risks for containers quantitatively.

The Study of the Impact for Coastal Engineering on High Water Level Induced by Storm Surges in Bohai Bay

2011 ◽  
Vol 94-96 ◽  
pp. 810-814
Author(s):  
Jin Shan Zhang ◽  
Wei Sheng Zhang ◽  
Chen Cheng ◽  
Lin Yun Sun
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
High Water ◽  
Coastal Engineering ◽  
Cold Wave ◽  
Bohai Bay ◽  
Ocean Engineering ◽  
The Impact

Bohai Bay is an semi-closed bay, the storm surge disaster is very serious in past. Now more and more large ocean engineering are built here, To study changes of storm surge induced by the construction of large-scale coastal engineering in Bohai Bay in present, 2D numerical storm surge model is established with large - medium - small model nested approach. The three most typical storms surges: 9216, 9711 and by cold wave in October 2003 are simulated in the condition of before and after implementation of planning projects in Bohai Bay. Changes of storm surge water level due to implementation of artificial projects are analysis in this paper.

scholarly journals An Integrated Approach for the Simulation Modeling and Risk Assessment of Coastal Flooding

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2076
Author(s):  
Yazhi Zheng ◽  
Hai Sun
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
River Estuary ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Actual Case ◽  
Ca Model

The evaluation of storm surge flood risk is vital to disaster management and planning at national, regional and local levels, particularly in coastal areas that are affected more severely by storm surges. The purpose of this paper is to propose a new method that includes two modules for the simulation modeling and risk assessment of coastal flooding. One is a hydrodynamic module for simulating the process of the flood inundation coastal inundation arising from storm surge, which is based on a cellular automata (CA) model. The other is a risk assessment module for quantitatively estimating the economic loss by using the inundation data and land use data. The coastal areas of Pearl River estuary in China were taken as a case study. Simulation results are compared to experimental results from MIKE 21 and depth data from a social-media-based dataset, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the CA model. By analyzing flood risk, the flood area and the direct economic losses predicted are close to the actual case incurred, further demonstrating the computational reliability of the proposed method. Additionally, an automatic risk assessment platform is designed by integrating the two modules in a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework, facilitating a more efficient and faster simulation of coastal flooding. The platform can provide the governments as well as citizens of coastal areas with user-friendly, real-time graphics for coastal flood disaster preparation, warning, response and recovery.

Windstorm and storm surges in Europe: loss trends and possible counter-actions from the viewpoint of an international reinsurer

2005 ◽  
Vol 363 (1831) ◽  
pp. 1431-1440 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Berz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
The State ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Policy Options ◽  
Design Code ◽  
The World

Windstorm disasters (including storm surges) account for about one-third of all natural disasters throughout the world (by number, fatalities and economic losses), but for more than two-thirds of the corresponding insured losses. Trend analyses reveal that major windstorm disasters and the losses generated by them have increased drastically in recent decades. Risk partnership between the state, the affected population and the insurance industry assumes a key role with regard to the windstorm hazard. Scientists, engineers and insurers must work together in formulating their requirements and shaping them in such a way that politicians can derive clearly recognizable policy options (e.g. land-use, restrictions, design-code adjustments) from them. Another important aspect is stepping up the efforts being made towards curbing climate change, which will, otherwise, exacerbate the risk in the future.

scholarly journals Developing a Modeling Framework to Simulate Compound Flooding: When Storm Surge Interacts With Riverine Flow

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Loveland ◽  
Amin Kiaghadi ◽  
Clint N. Dawson ◽  
Hanadi S. Rifai ◽  
Shubhra Misra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Water Surface ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Primary Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adcirc Model

Compound flooding is a physical phenomenon that has become more destructive in recent years. Moreover, compound flooding is a broad term that envelops many different physical processes that can range from preconditioned, to multivariate, to temporally compounding, or spatially compounding. This research aims to analyze a specific case of compound flooding related to tropical cyclones where the compounding effect is on coastal flooding due to a combination of storm surge and river discharge. In recent years, such compound flood events have increased in frequency and magnitude, due to a number of factors such as sea-level rise from warming oceans. Therefore, the ability to model such events is of increasing urgency. At present, there is no holistic, integrated modeling system capable of simulating or forecasting compound flooding on a large regional or global scale, leading to the need to couple various existing models. More specifically, two more challenges in such a modeling effort are determining the primary model and accounting for the effect of adjacent watersheds that discharge to the same receiving water body in amplifying the impact of compound flooding from riverine discharge with storm surge when the scale of the model includes an entire coastal line. In this study, we investigated the possibility of using the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model as the primary model to simulate the compounding effects of fluvial flooding and storm surge via loose one-way coupling with gage data through internal time-dependent flux boundary conditions. The performance of the ADCIRC model was compared with the Hydrologic Engineering Center- River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model both at the watershed and global scales. Furthermore, the importance of including riverine discharges and the interactions among adjacent watersheds were quantified. Results showed that the ADCIRC model could reliably be used to model compound flooding on both a watershed scale and a regional scale. Moreover, accounting for the interaction of river discharge from multiple watersheds is critical in accurately predicting flood patterns when high amounts of riverine flow occur in conjunction with storm surge. Particularly, with storms such as Hurricane Harvey (2017), where river flows were near record levels, inundation patterns and water surface elevations were highly dependent on the incorporation of the discharge input from multiple watersheds. Such an effect caused extra and longer inundations in some areas during Hurricane Harvey. Comparisons with real gauge data show that adding internal flow boundary conditions into ADCIRC to account for river discharge from multiple watersheds significantly improves accuracy in predictions of water surface elevations during coastal flooding events.

scholarly journals Economic Cascades and the Costs of a Business-as-Usual Approach to COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Roopnarine ◽  
David Goodwin ◽  
Maricela Abarca ◽  
Joseph Russack
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Usual Approach ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Business As Usual ◽  
The Impact

Shelter-in-place policies and the closure of non-essential workplaces intended to disrupt transmission of the SARS-COV-2 virus are effective approaches to combating COVID-19. They have, however, caused record levels of unemployment in the United States, raising questions of whether mitigation is more societally damaging than the disease. Here we use a coupled epidemiological-economic model to estimate the impact on employment of an unmitigated, business-as-usual approach to the pandemic. We compared unemployment between March-August 2020 in ten Californian socio-economic systems (SESs) to unemployment forecast by a model of industrial sector inter-dependencies subjected to unmitigated outbreaks of COVID-19. We found that economic losses are unavoidable because disease-driven losses propagate economically through SESs, amplifying losses to the disease. While model forecasts are generally lower than actual unemployment, jobs savings would come at the cost of greatly increased worker mortality. The costs would also be disproportionately greater among smaller and inland SESs.

MODELING STORM SURGES AND WAVE CLIMATE IN THE WHITE AND BARENTS SEAS

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anastasia Korablina ◽  
Anastasia Korablina ◽  
Victor Arkhipkin ◽  
Victor Arkhipkin ◽  
Sergey Dobrolyubov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
White Sea ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
The White Sea ◽  
Linear Interaction ◽  
The Barents Sea

Russian priority - the study of storm surges and wave climate in the Arctic seas due to the active development of offshore oil and gas. Researching the formation of storm surge and wave are necessary for the design and construction of facilities in the coastal zone, as well as for the safety of navigation. An inactive port ensues considerable economic losses. It is important to study the variability of storm surges, wave climate in the past and forecast the future. Consequently, this information would be used for planning the development of the Arctic in accordance with the development programme 2020. Mathematical modeling is used to analyze the characteristics of storm surges and wave climate formation from 1979 to 2010 in the White and Barents Seas. Calculation of storm surge heights in the seas is performed using model AdCirc on an unstructured grid with a 20 km pitch in the Barents Sea and 100 m in the White Sea. The model AdCirc used data of wind field reanalysis CFSv2. The simulation of storm surge was conducted with/without pressure, sea state, tides. A non-linear interaction of the surge and tide during the phase of destruction storm surge was detected. Calculation of the wave climate performed using SWAN spectral wave model on unstructured grids. Spatial resolution is 500 m-5 km for the White Sea and 10-20 km for the Barents Sea. NCEP/CFSR (~0.3°) input wind forcing was used. The storminess of the White Sea tends to increase from 1979 to 1991, and then decrease to minimum at 2000 and increase again till 2010.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document