scholarly journals Verification tools for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables

2006 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 2145-2173 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Laio ◽  
S. Tamea
Keyword(s):  
Loss Function ◽  
Probabilistic Forecast ◽  
Economic Literature ◽  
Binary Variables ◽  
Verification Method ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Verification Tools ◽  
Detailed Application ◽  
Hydrological Variables

Abstract. In the present paper we describe some methods for verifying and evaluating probabilistic forecasts of hydrological variables. We propose an extension to continuous-valued variables of a verification method originated in the meteorological literature for the analysis of binary variables, and based on the use of a suitable cost-loss function to evaluate the quality of the forecasts. We find that this procedure is useful and reliable when it is complemented with other verification tools, borrowed from the economic literature, which are addressed to verify the statistical correctness of the probabilistic forecast. We illustrate our findings with a detailed application to the evaluation of probabilistic and deterministic forecasts of hourly discharge values.

scholarly journals Verification tools for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables

2007 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1267-1277 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Laio ◽  
S. Tamea
Keyword(s):  
Loss Function ◽  
Probabilistic Forecast ◽  
Economic Literature ◽  
Binary Variables ◽  
Verification Method ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Verification Tools ◽  
Detailed Application ◽  
Hydrological Variables

Abstract. In the present paper we describe some methods for verifying and evaluating probabilistic forecasts of hydrological variables. We propose an extension to continuous-valued variables of a verification method originated in the meteorological literature for the analysis of binary variables, and based on the use of a suitable cost-loss function to evaluate the quality of the forecasts. We find that this procedure is useful and reliable when it is complemented with other verification tools, borrowed from the economic literature, which are addressed to verify the statistical correctness of the probabilistic forecast. We illustrate our findings with a detailed application to the evaluation of probabilistic and deterministic forecasts of hourly discharge values.

Automatic verification method of progressive image model matching information based on machine learning

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Jie Yuan ◽  
Yuan Ji ◽  
Zhou Zhu ◽  
Liya Huang ◽  
Junfeng Qian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Design Method ◽  
Large Error ◽  
Model Matching ◽  
Target Image ◽  
Image Model ◽  
Verification Method ◽  
Low Performance

In order to solve the problems of large error and low performance of traditional progressive image model matching information checking methods, an automatic progressive image model matching information checking method based on machine learning is proposed. The generation method of progressive image is analyzed, and the target image sample is obtained. On this basis, machine learning algorithm is used to segment progressive image samples. In each image segmentation part, crawler technology is used to automatically collect progressive image model matching information, and under the constraint of image model matching information checking standard, automatic checking of progressive image model matching information is realized from geometric structure, image content and other aspects. Experimental results show that the verification error of the design method is reduced by 0.687 Mb, and the quality of progressive image is improved.

Taguchi's Loss Function in the Weight Quality of Products: Case Study of Cheese Making

2021 ◽  
pp. 453-466
Author(s):  
Nicolás Francisco Mateo-Díaz ◽  
Lidilia Cruz-Rivero ◽  
Luis Adolfo Meraz-Rivera ◽  
Jesús Ortiz-Martínez
Keyword(s):  
Loss Function ◽  
Cheese Making ◽  
Quality Of Products ◽  
Taguchi’S Loss Function

scholarly journals Risk strategy analysis for an online rental problem of durable equipment with a transaction cost

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 174830262110084
Author(s):  
Chunlin Xin ◽  
Jianwen Zhang ◽  
Ziping Wang
Keyword(s):  
Transaction Cost ◽  
Competitive Analysis ◽  
Competitive Ratio ◽  
Risk Tolerance ◽  
Probabilistic Forecast ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Strategy Analysis ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Deterministic Strategy

This study introduces the second-hand market into the famous ski-rental model, presents an online rental problem of durable equipment with a transaction cost, and designs an optimal deterministic competitive strategy. The traditional competitive analysis is based on the worst-case scenario; hence, its results are too conservative. Even though investors want to manage and control their risks in reality, in some cases, they are willing to undertake higher risk to obtain greater benefits. Considering this situation, this study designs a risk strategy combining the decision makers’ risk tolerance with certain and probabilistic forecasts. Numerical analysis shows that the proposed risk strategy can improve the competitive ratio. This study introduces the idea of risk compensation into traditional competitive analysis and designs strategies for online rental of durable equipment based on forecast. The decision maker selects a strategy according to risk tolerance and forecast. If the forecast is correct, then a reward is obtained; otherwise, the risk is guaranteed to be within the decision maker’s risk tolerance. The optimal restricted ratio, that is, the competitive ratio of a risk strategy, is less than the optimal competitive ratio of a deterministic strategy. Therefore, the performance of the proposed risk strategy is better than a deterministic strategy. At the same time, the risk strategy based on the probabilistic forecast represents an extension of the strategy based on a certain forecast. In other words, the risk strategy based on a certain forecast is a special case of the risk strategy based on the probabilistic forecast.

scholarly journals Evaluation of IRI’s Seasonal Climate Forecasts for the Extreme 15% Tails

2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 545-554 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony G. Barnston ◽  
Simon J. Mason
Keyword(s):  
Prediction System ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
International Research Institute ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecasts ◽  
Climate And Society ◽  
Good Calibration

Abstract This paper evaluates the quality of real-time seasonal probabilistic forecasts of the extreme 15% tails of the climatological distribution of temperature and precipitation issued by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) from 1998 through 2009. IRI’s forecasts have been based largely on a two-tiered multimodel dynamical prediction system. Forecasts of the 15% extremes have been consistent with the corresponding probabilistic forecasts for the standard tercile-based categories; however, nonclimatological forecasts for the extremes have been issued sparingly. Results indicate positive skill in terms of resolution and discrimination for the extremes forecasts, particularly in the tropics. Additionally, with the exception of some overconfidence for extreme above-normal precipitation and a strong cool bias for temperature, reliability analyses suggest generally good calibration. Skills for temperature are generally higher than those for precipitation, due both to correct forecasts of increased probabilities of extremely high (above the upper 15th percentile) temperatures associated with warming trends, and to better discrimination of interannual variability. However, above-normal temperature extremes were substantially underforecast, as noted also for the IRI’s tercile forecasts.

scholarly journals Efficiency and resource allocation: the Hungarian managed health care system

Competitio ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gyorgy Jona
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Health Care System ◽  
Preventive Health Care ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Economic Literature ◽  
Managed Health Care ◽  
Incremental Cost Analysis ◽  
Medical Attendance ◽  
Care System

The managed health care system (MHCS) was introduced and applied in Hungary between 1999 and 2009. The gradually expanding system covered only 22% of the population and included exclusively the curative-preventive health care, subsidy on medicaments, subsidy on therapeutic appliances and the spa service. Like anywhere else it was cost-effectiveness that was expected from the MHCS without the adverse effect in the quality of the health service. To decide whether the MHCS was successful in Hungary or not, we compare it with the results of those segments of the health system where the MHCS was not introduced. We use the method of the incremental cost analysis. We are making our comparison exclusively on the basis of health economics aspects, because no difference has evolved in the quality of the medical attendances. We will see that where the MHCS was applied, the medical attendance became cheaper, at those places where the MHCS was not applied the medical attendance became more expensive, causing a chronic financial deficit (137785 million HUF). Although the MHCS managed from less money, it gained 17767 million HUF during the mentioned ten years. We are going to present the general features of the MHCS and support the fact that the outcome of the managed care concept was rationalized and the savings in several segments of health care, by means of empirical evidence. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: I150, I180, G220, G320, H520.

scholarly journals DISCRIMINATION, TAX CONSCIOUSNESS, AND SERVICE QUALITY TOWARDS PERCEPTION OF TAX EMBEZZLEMENT

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-102
Author(s):  
Indriyani Astuti Nurachman ◽  
Catur Martian Fajar ◽  
Adi Suparwo
Keyword(s):  
Service Quality ◽  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Quantitative Approach ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Tax Administration ◽  
Verification Method ◽  
Quality Perceptions ◽  
Data Source ◽  
Tax Fraud

Tax fraud is a problem that often occurs in all parts of tax administration, one of which is tax evasion. As a result, the perception of taxpayers is reluctant to pay taxes. This is seen from the low awareness of taxpayers in the Bandung KPP Intermediate. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of discrimination, awareness of taxpayers and the quality of tax services on the perception of tax evasion. This research uses descriptive verification method with a quantitative approach. The data source used is primary data as a result of distributing questionnaires to taxpayers as many as 100 respondents. Based on the results of the study showed that partially discrimination and awareness of taxpayers have no significant effect on the perception of tax evasion. But the quality of tax services has a significant effect on the perception of tax evasion. Simultaneously discrimination, awareness of taxpayers and the quality of tax services have a significant effect on the perception of tax evasion. The quality of tax services has the most influence on the perception of tax evasion with indicators of accuracy of information. From the results of the research, it is expected that tax officials are always swift and willing to provide clear and understandable information by taxpayers, so that taxpayers feel satisfied with the services provided because it can reduce tax evasion at the Intermediate Tax Office in Bandung. Keywords: Discrimination, taxpayer awareness, tax service quality, perceptions of tax evasion

scholarly journals Who Adopts: An Economists View

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 22
Author(s):  
Samuel D. Ramenofsky
Keyword(s):  
Relative Income ◽  
Important Variable ◽  
Social Agency ◽  
Adoption Process ◽  
Economic Literature ◽  
Variable Data ◽  
Insight Into

Dr. Bonhams article offers insight into the motivation of adoption. It is this authors belief that the economic literature on fertility, quantity and quality of children, and the value of the time of women give added insights. It is hypothesized that relative income is an important variable. Data on adoption were collected from an urban social agency involved in the adoption process to test the hypothesis. A model is proposed to illustrate the adoption process.

scholarly journals IMPLEMENTASI AUDIT BERBASIS RESIKO DAN DUE PROFESIONAL CARE YANG DIMILIKI AUDITOR BERDAMPAK PADA KUALITAS AUDIT

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Surtikanti SE.,M.Si ◽  
Dean Subhan Saleh
Keyword(s):  
Work Experience ◽  
Latent Variables ◽  
Quantitative Approach ◽  
Test Statistic ◽  
Financial Report ◽  
Verification Method ◽  
Professional Care ◽  
Descriptive Method

ABSTRACT Due professional care and work experience are the most important to be have by auditor. The auditor must have due professional care and work experience to produce a good financial report. If auditor have a good due professional care and work experience, then the quality of audit will be good. Due professional care and work experience will affect the quality of audit. But in fact, the quality of audit produced bay auditor is not good enough. The purpose of this research is the effect of due professional care and work experienceto quality of audit survey on KAP existing in Bandung. The method used in this research is descriptive method, verification with quantitative approach. Descriptive method used to determine due professional care and work experience to quality of audit. The test statistic used is the calculation of validity and relibility testing using software SPSS 18.0 for windows. For verification method using SEM PLS, evaluation results outer model by value loading factor and discrimination validity. All the indicators used in this research is valid and able to measure latent variables. The result from this research indicate that due professional care has a significant impact on the quality of audit that if due professional care great then the resulting quality of audit would be great, while work experience has a significant impact on the quality of audit that if work experience is good then the quality of audit would be good.   Keywords : Due Professional Care, Risk Audit, and Quality of Audit

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