scholarly journals <i>HESS Opinions</i> "On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: curse or blessing?"

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 1225-1245 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Pappenberger ◽  
H. L. Cloke ◽  
A. Persson ◽  
D. Demeritt
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Decision Framework ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Recent Interest ◽  
Undesirable Property

Abstract. Flood forecasting increasingly relies on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts to achieve longer lead times (see Cloke et al., 2009; Cloke and Pappenberger, 2009). One of the key difficulties that is emerging in constructing a decision framework for these flood forecasts is when consecutive forecasts are different, leading to different conclusions regarding the issuing of forecasts, and hence inconsistent. In this opinion paper we explore some of the issues surrounding such forecast inconsistency (also known as "jumpiness", "turning points", "continuity" or number of "swings"; Zoster et al., 2009; Mills and Pepper, 1999; Lashley et al., 2008). We begin by defining what forecast inconsistency is; why forecasts might be inconsistent; how we should analyse it; what we should do about it; how we should communicate it and whether it is a totally undesirable property. The property of consistency is increasingly emerging as a hot topic in many forecasting environments (for a limited discussion on NWP inconsistency see Persson, 2011). However, in this opinion paper we restrict the discussion to a hydro-meteorological forecasting chain in which river discharge forecasts are produced using inputs from NWP. In this area of research (in)consistency is receiving recent interest and application (see e.g., Bartholmes et al., 2008; Pappenberger et al., 2011).

scholarly journals HESS Opinions "On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: curse or blessing?"

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 2391-2400 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Pappenberger ◽  
H. L. Cloke ◽  
A. Persson ◽  
D. Demeritt
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Decision Framework ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Undesirable Property

Abstract. Flood forecasting increasingly relies on numerical weather prediction forecasts to achieve longer lead times. One of the key difficulties that is emerging in constructing a decision framework for these flood forecasts is what to dowhen consecutive forecasts are so different that they lead to different conclusions regarding the issuing of warnings or triggering other action. In this opinion paper we explore some of the issues surrounding such forecast inconsistency (also known as "Jumpiness", "Turning points", "Continuity" or number of "Swings"). In thsi opinion paper we define forecast inconsistency; discuss the reasons why forecasts might be inconsistent; how we should analyse inconsistency; and what we should do about it; how we should communicate it and whether it is a totally undesirable property. The property of consistency is increasingly emerging as a hot topic in many forecasting environments.

scholarly journals Forecasting length-of-day using numerical weather prediction models

1988 ◽  
Vol 128 ◽  
pp. 285-286
Author(s):  
R. D. Rosen ◽  
D. A. Salstein ◽  
T. Nehrkorn ◽  
J. O. Dickey ◽  
T. M. Eubanks ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Length Of Day ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Medium Range Forecast ◽  
Frequency Changes ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Models

A new approach to forecasting changes in length-of-day (δl.o.d) with lead times from one to ten days is examined. The approach is based on the high correlation that has been shown to exist between high frequency changes in l.o.d. and those in the atmosphere's angular momentum (M). Because forecasts of tropospheric values of M can be calculated from the zonal wind fields produced by operational numerical weather prediction models, it seems worth investigating whether these forecasts are sufficiently skillful to use to infer the evolution of δl.o.d. Here, we examine the quality of M forecasts made by the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model of the U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC). By comparing these forecasts against those based on a simple model of persistence, we find that skillful forecasts of M are being achieved on average by the MRF, although there has been much month-to-month variability in forecast quality. Overall, our results indicate that for prediction lead times of 1–10 days, dynamically-based forecasts of δl.o.d. represent a viable alternative to the empirical approaches currently in use.

scholarly journals Post-processing rainfall forecasts from numerical weather prediction models for short-term streamflow forecasting

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 3587-3603 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. E. Robertson ◽  
D. L. Shrestha ◽  
Q. J. Wang
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Post Processing ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Numerical Weather

Abstract. Sub-daily ensemble rainfall forecasts that are bias free and reliably quantify forecast uncertainty are critical for flood and short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting. Post-processing of rainfall predictions from numerical weather prediction models is typically required to provide rainfall forecasts with these properties. In this paper, a new approach to generate ensemble rainfall forecasts by post-processing raw numerical weather prediction (NWP) rainfall predictions is introduced. The approach uses a simplified version of the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach to produce forecast probability distributions for individual locations and forecast lead times. Ensemble forecasts with appropriate spatial and temporal correlations are then generated by linking samples from the forecast probability distributions using the Schaake shuffle. The new approach is evaluated by applying it to post-process predictions from the ACCESS-R numerical weather prediction model at rain gauge locations in the Ovens catchment in southern Australia. The joint distribution of NWP predicted and observed rainfall is shown to be well described by the assumed log-sinh transformed bivariate normal distribution. Ensemble forecasts produced using the approach are shown to be more skilful than the raw NWP predictions both for individual forecast lead times and for cumulative totals throughout all forecast lead times. Skill increases result from the correction of not only the mean bias, but also biases conditional on the magnitude of the NWP rainfall prediction. The post-processed forecast ensembles are demonstrated to successfully discriminate between events and non-events for both small and large rainfall occurrences, and reliably quantify the forecast uncertainty. Future work will assess the efficacy of the post-processing method for a wider range of climatic conditions and also investigate the benefits of using post-processed rainfall forecasts for flood and short-term streamflow forecasting.

scholarly journals Evaluation of numerical weather prediction model precipitation forecasts for use in short-term streamflow forecasting

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 12563-12611 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. L. Shrestha ◽  
D. E. Robertson ◽  
Q. J. Wang ◽  
T. C. Pagano ◽  
P. Hapuarachchi
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Low Resolution ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Systematic Biases

Abstract. The quality of precipitation forecasts from four Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models is evaluated over the Ovens catchment in southeast Australia. Precipitation forecasts are compared with observed precipitation at point and catchment scales and at different temporal resolutions. The four models evaluated are the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) including ACCESS-G with a 80 km resolution, ACCESS-R 37.5 km, ACCESS-A 12 km, and ACCESS-VT 5 km. The high spatial resolution NWP models (ACCESS-A and ACCESS-VT) appear to be relatively free of bias (i.e. <30%) for 24 h total precipitation forecasts. The low resolution models (ACCESS-R and ACCESS-G) have widespread systematic biases as large as 70%. When evaluated at finer spatial and temporal resolution (e.g. 5 km, hourly) against station observations, the precipitation forecasts appear to have very little skill. There is moderate skill at short lead times when the forecasts are averaged up to daily and/or catchment scale. The skill decreases with increasing lead times and the global model ACCESS-G does not have significant skill beyond 7 days. The precipitation forecasts fail to produce a diurnal cycle shown in observed precipitation. Significant sampling uncertainty in the skill scores suggests that more data are required to get a reliable evaluation of the forecasts. Future work is planned to assess the benefits of using the NWP rainfall forecasts for short-term streamflow forecasting. Our findings here suggest that it is necessary to remove the systematic biases in rainfall forecasts, particularly those from low resolution models, before the rainfall forecasts can be used for streamflow forecasting.

scholarly journals Post-processing numerical weather prediction ensembles for probabilistic solar irradiance forecasting

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Lerch ◽  
Benedikt Schulz ◽  
Mehrez El Ayari ◽  
Sándor Baran
Keyword(s):  
Solar Energy ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Physical Models ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Post Processing ◽  
Energy Forecasting ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Geographical Regions

&lt;p&gt;In order to enable the transition towards renewable energy sources, probabilistic energy forecasting is of critical importance for incorporating volatile power sources such as solar energy into the electrical grid. Solar energy forecasting methods often aim to provide probabilistic predictions of solar irradiance. In particular, many hybrid approaches combine physical information from numerical weather prediction models with statistical methods. Even though the physical models can provide useful information at intra-day and day-ahead forecast horizons, ensemble weather forecasts from multiple model runs are often not calibrated and show systematic biases. We propose a post-processing model for ensemble weather predictions of solar irradiance at temporal resolutions between 30 minutes and 6 hours. The proposed models provide probabilistic forecasts in the form of a censored logistic probability distribution for lead times up to 5 days and are evaluated in two case studies covering distinct physical models, geographical regions, temporal resolutions, and types of solar irradiance. We find that post-processing consistently and significantly improves the forecast performance of the ensemble predictions for lead times up to at least 48 hours and is well able to correct the systematic lack of calibration.&lt;/p&gt;

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document