scholarly journals Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Greece – Part 3: Deaggregation

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
G-A. Tselentis ◽  
L. Danciu
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Peak Ground Acceleration ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Earthquake Magnitude ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Dense Grid ◽  
Motion Parameters

Abstract. The present third part of the study, concerning the evaluation of earthquake hazard in Greece in terms of various ground motion parameters, deals with the deaggregation of the obtained results The seismic hazard maps presented for peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 0.2 s and 1.0 s, with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, were deaggregated in order to quantify the dominant scenario. There are three basic components of each dominant scenario: earthquake magnitude (M), source-to-site distance (R) and epsilon (ε). We present deaggregation maps of mean and mode values of M-R-ε triplet showing the contribution to hazard over a dense grid.

scholarly journals Seismic hazard assessment of Iran

1999 ◽  
Vol 42 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Tavakoli ◽  
M. Ghafory-Ashtiany
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Peak Ground Acceleration ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Earthquake Insurance ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Seismic Source Models

The development of the new seismic hazard map of Iran is based on probabilistic seismic hazard computation using the historical earthquakes data, geology, tectonics, fault activity and seismic source models in Iran. These maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Iran in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines, and seismic hazard zoning, by using current probabilistic procedures. They display the probabilistic estimates of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for the return periods of 75 and 475 years. The maps have been divided into intervals of 0.25 degrees in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions to calculate the peak ground acceleration values at each grid point and draw the seismic hazard curves. The results presented in this study will provide the basis for the preparation of seismic risk maps, the estimation of earthquake insurance premiums, and the preliminary site evaluation of critical facilities.

scholarly journals Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Greece – Part 1: Engineering ground motion parameters

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
G-A. Tselentis ◽  
L. Danciu
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Peak Ground Acceleration ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Peak Ground Velocity ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Arias Intensity ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Cumulative Absolute Velocity

Abstract. Seismic hazard assessment represents a basic tool for rational planning and designing in seismic prone areas. In the present study, a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in terms of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, Arias intensity and cumulative absolute velocity computed with a 0.05 g acceleration threshold, has been carried out for Greece. The output of the hazard computation produced probabilistic hazard maps for all the above parameters estimated for a fixed return period of 475 years. From these maps the estimated values are reported for 52 Greek municipalities. Additionally, we have obtained a set of probabilistic maps of engineering significance: a probabilistic macroseismic intensity map, depicting the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale obtained from the estimated peak ground velocity and a probabilistic seismic-landslide map based on a simplified conversion of the estimated Arias intensity and peak ground acceleration into Newmark's displacement.

scholarly journals Seismic Hazard Assessment for Thuong Tan-Tan My Quarries (Vietnam)

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Cao Dinh Trong ◽  
Xuan-Nam BUI ◽  
Pham NAM HUNG ◽  
Thai ANH TUAN ◽  
Mai XUAN BACH ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Peak Ground Acceleration ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Peak Ground Velocity ◽  
Ground Displacement ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Probability Of Exceedance ◽  
S Peak

This paper presents the seismic hazard assessment for Thuong Tan-Tan My quarries in Di An commune, Binh Duong province, Vietnam. Combination methods of gravity and magneto-telluric were used to estimate the dip angle and the width of the seismic source. The highest water column of 160 m will cause direct stress on the reservoir bottom with a maximum value of 1535.600 kPa and Coulomb stress of 68.693 kPa (at a depth of 2 km). The typical components of natural earthquake hazard (Mn.max = 5.0, depth of 10 km) in Thuong Tan - Tan My reservoir have the following values: peak ground acceleration PGA = 0.073 g ÷ 0.212 g; peak ground velocity PGV = 2.662 cm/s ÷ 7.984 cm/s; peak ground displacement PGD = 0.706 cm ÷ 1.918 cm at 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The typical components of triggered earthquake hazard (Mtr.max = 3.5, depth of 6 km) in Thuong Tan - Tan My reservoir have the following values: peak ground acceleration PGA = 0.024 g ÷ 0.172 g; peak ground velocity PGV = 0 ÷ 5.484 cm/s; peak ground displacement PGD = 0.061 cm ÷ 0.461 cm at 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Kermanshah-Sanandaj Region of Western Iran

2007 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 175-197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elham Shabani ◽  
Noorbakhsh Mirzaei
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Eleventh Century ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Western Iran

Seismic hazard assessment and zoning of the Kermanshah-Sanandaj region in western Iran is conducted using probabilistic approach. Two maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of the region in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines. They display a probabilistic estimate of peak ground acceleration (PGA) over bedrock for the return periods of 475 and 50 years. A uniform catalog of earthquakes containing historical and instrumental events covering the period from the eleventh century A.D. to 2003 is used. Twelve potential seismic sources are modeled as area sources in the region. Seismicity parameters are evaluated using the method in which magnitude uncertainty and incompleteness of earthquake data are considered. Seismic hazard assessment is carried out for a grid of 357 points with 0.1° intervals using the SEISRISKIII computer program for the study area encompassed by the 46–48° E longitudes and 34–36° N latitudes. This region includes the most active segments of the Zagros Main Recent Fault; among them, the Sahneh and Nahavand faults have a well-known history of intense seismic activity. PGA values for this region are estimated to be 0.35 g and 0.20 g for 475- and 50-years return periods, respectively.

scholarly journals Evaluation of The Seismic Hazard in The Marmara Region (Turkey) Based on Updated Databases

Geosciences ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 489 ◽  
Author(s):  
Şeşetyan ◽  
Tümsa ◽  
Akinci
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Earthquake Activity ◽  
Marmara Region ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Intensity Measures ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Fault Characterization

The increase in the wealth of information on the seismotectonic structure of the Marmara region after two devastating earthquakes (M7.6 Izmit and M7.2 Duzce events) in the year 1999 opened the way for the reassessment of the probabilistic seismic hazard in the light of new datasets. In this connection, the most recent findings and outputs of different national and international projects concerning seismicity and fault characterization in terms of geometric and kinematic properties are exploited in the present study to build an updated seismic hazard model. A revised fault segmentation model, alternative earthquake rupture models under a Poisson and renewal assumptions, as well as recently derived global and regional ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are put together in the present model to assess the seismic hazard in the region. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is conducted based on characteristic earthquake modelling for the fault segments capable of producing large earthquakes and smoothed seismicity modelling for the background smaller magnitude earthquake activity. The time-independent and time-dependent seismic hazard results in terms of spatial distributions of three ground-shaking intensity measures (peak ground acceleration, PGA, and 0.2 s and 1.0 s spectral accelerations (SA) on rock having 10% and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years) as well as the corresponding hazard curves for selected cities are shown and compared with previous studies.

Estimation of Peak Ground Acceleration and Its Uncertainty for Northern Indian Region

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Girish Chandra Joshi ◽  
Mukat Lal Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Peak Ground Acceleration ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Indian Region ◽  
Branch Points ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Source Models ◽  
Hazard Parameters

In the present study the authors evaluate uncertainties in the seismic hazard assessment for the Northern Indian region, based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). The newly compiled earthquake data has been treated for the quality, consistency, and homogeneity in a systematic manner to find out the uncertainties in every step of calculations. Based on the geological and tectonic setup, seismicity and other geophysical anomalies, a seismotectonic model of the region has been developed. The seismic hazard parameters are calculated based on giving proper weight to specific region. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) is estimated for various return periods for the Northern Indian region using a logic tree approach. The variation at the input level in terms of the source models and different Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) is used. To examine into the effect of source modelling and GMPEs, the Coefficient of Variation (COV) maps have been generated. To encompass the region and for better resolution, the peak ground acceleration (PGA) is estimated at 15 minute intervals. The COV values due to all branch points in the logic tree decrease with distance from the source and conspicuous increase toward fault boundaries are observed.

scholarly journals Neo-deterministic seismic hazard maps of Kosovo

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrico Brandmayr ◽  
Vaccari Franco ◽  
Romanelli Fabio ◽  
Vlahovic Gordana ◽  
Panza Giuliano Francesco
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Active Regions ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Earthquake Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Source Information ◽  
Deterministic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Traditional Construction

Kosovo is one of the most seismically active regions in Europe, lying within the Alpine-Mediterranean tectonic belt. Historical records for the region show several catastrophic earthquakes with epicentral intensity IX (MCS). However, due to Kosovo’s high population density, high prevalence of traditional construction, and insufficient enforcement of building codes, Kosovo is vulnerable to earthquake damage. In this study, we present earthquake hazard maps for bedrock conditions in Kosovo based on the well-known Neo-deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) method. NDSHA relies upon the fundamental physics of wave generation and propagation in complex geologic structures to generate realistic time series, used as input for the computation of several ground motion parameters, integrating the available knowledge of seismic history, seismogenic zones and morphostructural nodes. In accordance with continuum mechanics, the tensor nature of earthquake ground motion is preserved, producing realistic signals using structural models obtained by tomographic inversion and earthquake source information readily available in literature. Our maps are generally consistent with the observed intensity IX (MCS) and suggest that, in some instances, intensity X could be reached.

scholarly journals A probabilistic approach for earthquake hazard assessment of the Province of Eskişehir, Turkey

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 607-614 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Orhan ◽  
E. Seyrek ◽  
H. Tosun
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
City Center ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Western Turkey ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps ◽  
Earthquake Hazard Assessment ◽  
The City

Abstract. The city of Eskişehir in inner-western Turkey has experienced a destructive earthquake with Ms=6.4 in 1956 in addition to many events with magnitudes greater than 5. It is located in a wide basin having young sedimentary units and thick alluvium soils which also include liquefiable sand materials. There is also an active fault passing beneath the city center and the groundwater level is very close to the ground surface. Approximately 600 thousand people are living in the province of Eskişehir. Therefore, the city and its vicinity have a high risk, when earthquake hazard is considered. This paper summarizes the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which was performed for the province of Eskişehir and introduces seismic hazard maps produced by considering earthquakes with magnitude Ms≥4.0 occurred during the last 100-years and a seismic model composed of four seismic sources. The results of PSHA show that the average peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the city center is 0.40 g for 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years, for rock site. The seismic hazard maps were obtained by means of a program of Geographic Information System.

California Historical Intensity Mapping Project (CHIMP): A Consistently Reinterpreted Dataset of Seismic Intensities for the Past 162 Yr and Implications for Seismic Hazard Maps

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (5) ◽  
pp. 2631-2650 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leah Salditch ◽  
Molly M. Gallahue ◽  
Madeleine C. Lucas ◽  
James S. Neely ◽  
Susan E. Hough ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Intensity ◽  
Hazard Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Intensity Data ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Intensity Mapping ◽  
Intensity Information

Abstract Historical seismic intensity data are useful for myriad reasons, including assessment of the performance of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) models and corresponding hazard maps by comparing their predictions to a dataset of historically observed intensities in the region. To assess PSHA models for California, a long and consistently interpreted intensity record is needed. For this purpose, the California Historical Intensity Mapping Project (CHIMP) has compiled a dataset that combines and reinterprets intensity information that has been stored in disparate and sometimes hard-to-access locations. The CHIMP dataset also includes new observations of intensity from archival research and oral history collection. Version 1 of the dataset includes 46,502 intensity observations for 62 earthquakes with estimated magnitudes ranging from 4.7 to 7.9. The 162 yr of shaking data show observed shaking lower than expected from seismic hazard models. This discrepancy is reduced, but persists, if historical intensity data for the largest earthquakes are smoothed to reduce the effects of spatial undersampling. Possible reasons for this discrepancy include other limitations of the CHIMP dataset, the hazard models, and the possibility that California seismicity throughout the historical period has been lower than the long-term average. Some of these issues may also explain similar discrepancies observed for Italy and Japan.

scholarly journals Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, considering empirically estimated site effects

2015 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahid Ullah ◽  
Dino Bindi ◽  
Marco Pilz ◽  
Stefano Parolai
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Site Effects ◽  
Response Spectrum ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Geological Structure ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Site Classification ◽  
Ground Acceleration

<p>It is well known that variability in the surface geology potentially leads to the modification of earthquake-induced ground motion over short distances. Although this effect is of major importance when seismic hazard is assessed at the urban level, it is very often not appropriately accounted for. In this paper, we present a first attempt at taking into account the influence of the shallow geological structure on the seismic hazard assessment for Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, using a proxy (Vs30) that has been estimated from in situ seismic noise array analyses, and considering response spectral ratios calculated by analyzing a series of earthquake recordings of a temporary seismic network. To highlight the spatial variability of the observed ground motion, the obtained results are compared with those estimated assuming a homogeneous Vs30 value over the whole urban area. The seismic hazard is evaluated in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) at different periods (frequencies). The presented results consider the values obtained for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The largest SA estimated considering a rock site classification of the area (0.43 g) is observed for a period of 0.1 s (10 Hz), while the maximum PGA reaches 0.21 g. When site effects are included through the Vs30 proxy in the seismic hazard calculation, the largest SA, 0.67 g, is obtained for a period of 0.3 s (about 3.3 Hz). In terms of PGA, in this case the largest estimated value reaches 0.31 g in the northern part of the town. When the variability of ground motion is accounted for through response spectrum ratios, the largest SA reaches a value as high as 1.39 g at a period of 0.5 s. In general, considering site effects in the seismic hazard assessment of Bishkek leads to an increase of seismic hazard in the north of the city, which is thus identified as the most hazardous part within the study area and which is more far away from the faults.</p>

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