scholarly journals Towards thresholds of disaster management performance under demographic change: exploring functional relationships using agent-based modeling

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. 2287-2301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunnar Dressler ◽  
Birgit Müller ◽  
Karin Frank ◽  
Christian Kuhlicke
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Management ◽  
Demographic Change ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Management Performance ◽  
Ageing Society ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Functional Relationships ◽  
Virtual Lab ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Effective disaster management is a core feature for the protection of communities against natural disasters such as floods. Disaster management organizations (DMOs) are expected to contribute to ensuring this protection. However, what happens when their resources to cope with a flood are at stake or the intensity and frequency of the event exceeds their capacities? Many cities in the Free State of Saxony, Germany, were strongly hit by several floods in the last years and are additionally challenged by demographic change, with an ageing society and out-migration leading to population shrinkage in many parts of Saxony. Disaster management, which is mostly volunteer-based in Germany, is particularly affected by this change, leading to a loss of members. We propose an agent-based simulation model that acts as a "virtual lab" to explore the impact of various changes on disaster management performance. Using different scenarios we examine the impact of changes in personal resources of DMOs, their access to operation relevant information, flood characteristics as well as differences between geographic regions. A loss of DMOs and associated manpower caused by demographic change has the most profound impact on the performance. Especially in rural, upstream regions population decline in combination with very short lead times can put disaster management performance at risk.

scholarly journals Towards thresholds of disaster management performance under demographic change: exploring functional relationships using agent-based modelling

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Dressler ◽  
B. Müller ◽  
K. Frank ◽  
C. Kuhlicke
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Management ◽  
Demographic Change ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Management Performance ◽  
Ageing Society ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Functional Relationships ◽  
Virtual Lab ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Effective disaster management is a core feature for the protection of communities against natural disasters such as floods. Disaster management organizations (DMOs) are expected to contribute to ensuring this protection. However, what happens when their resources to cope with a flood are at stake or the intensity and frequency of the event exceeds their capacities? Many cities in the Free State of Saxony, Germany were strongly hit by several floods in the last years and are additionally challenged by demographic change with an ageing society and outmigration leading to population shrinkage in many parts of Saxony. Disaster management which is mostly volunteer-based in Germany is particularly affected by this change, leading to a loss of members. We propose an agent-based simulation model that acts as a "virtual lab" to explore the impact of various changes on disaster management performance. Using different scenarios we examine the impact of changes in personal resources of DMOs, their access to operation relevant information, flood characteristics as well as differences between geographic regions. A loss of DMOs and associated manpower caused by demographic change has the most profound impact on the performance. Especially in rural, upstream regions population decline in combination with very short lead times can put disaster management performance at risk. Based on the results, we outline the implications for research as well as for the practice of disaster management in our concluding section.

A REVIEW ON THE BENEFITS OF HORTICULTURAL THERAPY FOR RETIREMENT COMMUNITY IN MALAYSIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Amirul Amin Ismail ◽  
Ismail Samsuddin ◽  
Azman Zainonabidin ◽  
Harlina Mohd Ali
Keyword(s):  
Well Being ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Retirement Community ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Horticultural Therapy ◽  
Seamless Integration ◽  
Ageing Society ◽  
After Effects ◽  
Malaysian Population ◽  
The Impact

By the year 2030, Malaysian population will experience the after effects of the rapid growth of ageing society. This paper investigates the impact of seamless integration of horticultural activity in the new residential typology of retirement community. It is believed that horticultural therapy is not only beneficial for physical and psychological but also promotes socialisation opportunities among the elderly. Comparative analysis method on selected precedent studies has been carried out and analysed in accordance with Malaysian context. Initial findings indicate that a retirement community with horticultural activity gives therapy for healthier well-being. This therapeutic activity can be apositive change in elderly lifestyle and essential towards the establishment of retirement community in Malaysia. 

scholarly journals Process Modeling and Simulation of Tableting—An Agent-Based Simulation Methodology for Direct Compression

Pharmaceutics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 996
Author(s):  
Niels Lasse Martin ◽  
Ann Kathrin Schomberg ◽  
Jan Henrik Finke ◽  
Tim Gyung-min Abraham ◽  
Arno Kwade ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Raw Materials ◽  
Pilot Scale ◽  
Physical Models ◽  
Agent Based Simulation ◽  
Validation Data ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Industrial Processing ◽  
Digital Twins ◽  
Product And Process ◽  
The Impact

In pharmaceutical manufacturing, the utmost aim is reliably producing high quality products. Simulation approaches allow virtual experiments of processes in the planning phase and the implementation of digital twins in operation. The industrial processing of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) into tablets requires the combination of discrete and continuous sub-processes with complex interdependencies regarding the material structures and characteristics. The API and excipients are mixed, granulated if required, and subsequently tableted. Thereby, the structure as well as the properties of the intermediate and final product are influenced by the raw materials, the parametrized processes and environmental conditions, which are subject to certain fluctuations. In this study, for the first time, an agent-based simulation model is presented, which enables the prediction, tracking, and tracing of resulting structures and properties of the intermediates of an industrial tableting process. Therefore, the methodology for the identification and development of product and process agents in an agent-based simulation is shown. Implemented physical models describe the impact of process parameters on material structures. The tablet production with a pilot scale rotary press is experimentally characterized to provide calibration and validation data. Finally, the simulation results, predicting the final structures, are compared to the experimental data.

scholarly journals Integrated IEW-TOPSIS and Fire Dynamics Simulation for Agent-Based Evacuation Modeling in Industrial Safety

Safety ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Wattana Chanthakhot ◽  
Kasin Ransikarbum
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Evacuation ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Industrial Safety ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Entropy Weight ◽  
Fire Dynamics ◽  
Evacuation Simulation ◽  
Evacuation Modeling ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Impact

Emergency events in the industrial sector have been increasingly reported during the past decade. However, studies that focus on emergency evacuation to improve industrial safety are still scarce. Existing evacuation-related studies also lack a perspective of fire assembly point’s analysis. In this research, location of assembly points is analyzed using the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) technique based on the integrated information entropy weight (IEW) and techniques for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to support the fire evacuation plan. Next, we propose a novel simulation model that integrates fire dynamics simulation coupled with agent-based evacuation simulation to evaluate the impact of smoke and visibility from fire on evacuee behavior. Factors related to agent and building characteristics are examined for fire perception of evacuees, evacuees with physical disabilities, escape door width, fire location, and occupancy density. Then, the proposed model is applied to a case study of a home appliance factory in Chachoengsao, Thailand. Finally, results for the total evacuation time and the number of remaining occupants are statistically examined to suggest proper evacuation planning.

Beyond the austerity-driven hypothesis: Political economic theses on penality and the recent prison population decline

2021 ◽  
pp. 147737082110006
Author(s):  
José A. Brandariz
Keyword(s):  
Prison Population ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Theoretical Frameworks ◽  
The Past ◽  
Economic Forces ◽  
Global North ◽  
Economic Perspectives ◽  
Political Economic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Spending Cuts

In what might be called the ‘austerity-driven hypothesis’, a consistent strand of literature has sought to explain the prison downsizing witnessed in many jurisdictions of the global north over the past decade by referring to the financial crisis of the late 2000s to early 2010s and its effects in terms of public spending cuts. Since this economic phase is essentially over, whereas the (moderate) decarceration turn is still ongoing, there are good reasons to challenge this hypothesis. This article delves into the non-economic forces that are fostering a prison population decline that, 10 years on, is becoming the new ‘penal normal’. The article thereby aims to spark a dialogue not only with the scholarship exploring the prison downsizing but also with certain theoretical frameworks that have played a key role in examining the punitive turn era. Additionally, the article contributes to the conversation on the need to reframe materialist readings on penality in a ‘non-reductionist’ fashion. By revisiting heterodox theses and scrutinizing the impact of recent penal changes on traditional materialist accounts, the article joins the collective endeavour seeking to update political economic perspectives on punishment and the penal field.

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