scholarly journals Residential flood loss estimated from Bayesian multilevel models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guilherme S. Mohor ◽  
Annegret H. Thieken ◽  
Oliver Korup
Keyword(s):  
Multilevel Models ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Flood Loss ◽  
Building Characteristics ◽  
Loss Models ◽  
Precautionary Measures ◽  
Flood Experience ◽  
Natural Groups

Abstract. Model predictions of monetary losses from floods mainly use physical metrics like inundation depth or building characteristics but largely ignore indicators of preparedness. The role of such predictors may vary between regions and events, challenging the transferability of flood loss models. We use a flood loss database of 1812 German flood-affected households to explore how Bayesian multilevel models can estimate normalised flood damage stratified by event, region, or flood process type. Multilevel models acknowledge natural groups in the data and allow each group to learn from others. We obtain posterior estimates that differ between flood types, with credibly varying influences of water depth, contamination, duration, implementation of property-level precautionary measures, insurance, and previous flood experience; these influences overlap across most events or regions, however. We infer that the underlying damaging processes of distinct flood types deserve further attention. Each reported flood loss and affected region involved mixed flood types, likely explaining the uncertainty in the coefficients. Our results emphasise the need to consider flood types as an important step towards applying flood loss models elsewhere. We argue that failing to do so may complicate reliable loss estimation from empirical data.

scholarly journals Residential flood loss estimated from Bayesian multilevel models

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 1599-1614
Author(s):  
Guilherme S. Mohor ◽  
Annegret H. Thieken ◽  
Oliver Korup
Keyword(s):  
Water Depth ◽  
Multilevel Models ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Flood Loss ◽  
Loss Estimations ◽  
Loss Models ◽  
Precautionary Measures ◽  
Flood Experience ◽  
Natural Groups ◽  
Do So

Abstract. Models for the predictions of monetary losses from floods mainly blend data deemed to represent a single flood type and region. Moreover, these approaches largely ignore indicators of preparedness and how predictors may vary between regions and events, challenging the transferability of flood loss models. We use a flood loss database of 1812 German flood-affected households to explore how Bayesian multilevel models can estimate normalised flood damage stratified by event, region, or flood process type. Multilevel models acknowledge natural groups in the data and allow each group to learn from others. We obtain posterior estimates that differ between flood types, with credibly varying influences of water depth, contamination, duration, implementation of property-level precautionary measures, insurance, and previous flood experience; these influences overlap across most events or regions, however. We infer that the underlying damaging processes of distinct flood types deserve further attention. Each reported flood loss and affected region involved mixed flood types, likely explaining the uncertainty in the coefficients. Our results emphasise the need to consider flood types as an important step towards applying flood loss models elsewhere. We argue that failing to do so may unduly generalise the model and systematically bias loss estimations from empirical data.

scholarly journals How awareness and confidence affect flood-risk precautionary behavior of Greek citizens: the role of perceptual and emotional mechanisms

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (7) ◽  
pp. 1329-1346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katerina Papagiannaki ◽  
Vassiliki Kotroni ◽  
Kostas Lagouvardos ◽  
Giorgos Papagiannakis
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Emotional Processes ◽  
Precautionary Behavior ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Precautionary Measures ◽  
Flood Experience

Abstract. This study examines the mechanisms of flood-risk precautionary behavior among Greek citizens. To that end, we specify and test a mediation model in which awareness-raising factors and confidence attitudes influence the citizens' current flood preparedness and preparedness intention through perceptual and emotional processes. Raw data were obtained via an online survey that received 1855 responses. Causal relations were tested by means of structural equation modeling (SEM). Overall, results indicate that risk perception and worry are significant drivers of preparedness intention. In particular, they act as mediating variables, explaining how flood experience, access to more risk information, vulnerability awareness, and trust in authorities affect citizens' intention to invest in precautionary measures. Especially trust was found to have a negative effect on worry, leading to lower preparedness levels. Worry was also found to have a significant role in explaining the current preparedness levels. Interestingly, citizens who had already undertaken precautionary measures in the past appear to be more willing to invest in more measures. Implications for improving flood-risk management in Greece are discussed.

scholarly journals Development and assessment of uni- and multi-variable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Carisi ◽  
Kai Schröter ◽  
Alessio Domeneghetti ◽  
Heidi Kreibich ◽  
Attilio Castellarin
Keyword(s):  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Local Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Damage Models ◽  
Flood Loss ◽  
Loss Data ◽  
Loss Models

Abstract. Simplified flood loss models are one important source of uncertainty in flood risk assessments. Many countries experience sparseness or absence of comprehensive high-quality flood loss data sets which is often rooted in a lack of protocols and reference procedures for compiling loss data sets after flood events. Such data are an important reference for developing and validating flood loss models. We consider the Secchia river flood event of January 2014, when a sudden levee-breach caused the inundation of nearly 52 km2 in Northern Italy. For this event we compiled a comprehensive flood loss data set of affected private households including buildings footprint, economic value, damages to contents, etc. based on information collected by local authorities after the event. By analysing this data set we tackle the problem of flood damage estimation in Emilia-Romagna (Italy) by identifying empirical uni- and multi-variable loss models for residential buildings and contents. The accuracy of the proposed models is compared with those of several flood-damage models reported in the literature, providing additional insights on the transferability of the models between different contexts. Our results show that (1) even simple uni-variable damage models based on local data are significantly more accurate than literature models derived for different contexts; (2) multi-variable models that consider several explanatory variables outperform uni-variable models which use only water depth. However, multi-variable models can only be effectively developed and applied if sufficient and detailed information is available.

scholarly journals Flood loss reduction of private households due to building precautionary measures – lessons learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Kreibich ◽  
A. H. Thieken ◽  
Th. Petrow ◽  
M. Müller ◽  
B. Merz
Keyword(s):  
Financial Incentives ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Information Campaigns ◽  
Private Households ◽  
River Elbe ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Flood Loss ◽  
Prone Area ◽  
Precautionary Measures

Abstract. Building houses in inundation areas is always a risk, since absolute flood protection is impossible. Where settlements already exist, flood damage must be kept as small as possible. Suitable means are precautionary measures such as elevated building configuration or flood adapted use. However, data about the effects of such measures are rare, and consequently, the efficiency of different precautionary measures is unclear. To improve the knowledge about efficient precautionary measures, approximately 1200 private households, which were affected by the 2002 flood at the river Elbe and its tributaries, were interviewed about the flood damage of their buildings and contents as well as about their precautionary measures. The affected households had little flood experience, i.e. only 15% had experienced a flood before. 59% of the households stated that they did not know, that they live in a flood prone area. Thus, people were not well prepared, e.g. just 11% had used and furnished their house in a flood adapted way and only 6% had a flood adapted building structure. Building precautionary measures are mainly effective in areas with frequent small floods. But also during the extreme flood event in 2002 building measures reduced the flood loss. From the six different building precautionary measures under study, flood adapted use and adapted interior fitting were the most effective ones. They reduced the damage ratio for buildings by 46% and 53%, respectively. The damage ratio for contents was reduced by 48% due to flood adapted use and by 53% due to flood adapted interior fitting. The 2002 flood motivated a relatively large number of people to implement private precautionary measures, but still much more could be done. Hence, to further reduce flood losses, people's motivation to invest in precaution should be improved. More information campaigns and financial incentives should be issued to encourage precautionary measures.

scholarly journals Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy)

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 2057-2079 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Carisi ◽  
Kai Schröter ◽  
Alessio Domeneghetti ◽  
Heidi Kreibich ◽  
Attilio Castellarin
Keyword(s):  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Local Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Damage Models ◽  
Private Households ◽  
Flood Loss ◽  
Multivariable Models ◽  
Loss Models ◽  
Flood Damage Estimation

Abstract. Flood loss models are one important source of uncertainty in flood risk assessments. Many countries experience sparseness or absence of comprehensive high-quality flood loss data, which is often rooted in a lack of protocols and reference procedures for compiling loss datasets after flood events. Such data are an important reference for developing and validating flood loss models. We consider the Secchia River flood event of January 2014, when a sudden levee breach caused the inundation of nearly 52 km2 in northern Italy. After this event local authorities collected a comprehensive flood loss dataset of affected private households including building footprints and structures and damages to buildings and contents. The dataset was enriched with further information compiled by us, including economic building values, maximum water depths, velocities and flood durations for each building. By analyzing this dataset we tackle the problem of flood damage estimation in Emilia-Romagna (Italy) by identifying empirical uni- and multivariable loss models for residential buildings and contents. The accuracy of the proposed models is compared with that of several flood damage models reported in the literature, providing additional insights into the transferability of the models among different contexts. Our results show that (1) even simple univariable damage models based on local data are significantly more accurate than literature models derived for different contexts; (2) multivariable models that consider several explanatory variables outperform univariable models, which use only water depth. However, multivariable models can only be effectively developed and applied if sufficient and detailed information is available.

scholarly journals Flood Inundation Assessment in the Low-Lying River Basin Considering Extreme Rainfall Impacts and Topographic Vulnerability

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 896
Author(s):  
Thanh Thu Nguyen ◽  
Makoto Nakatsugawa ◽  
Tomohito J. Yamada ◽  
Tsuyoshi Hoshino
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Flood Inundation ◽  
Inundation Area ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Inundation Duration ◽  
Short Time

This study aims to evaluate the change in flood inundation in the Chitose River basin (CRB), a tributary of the Ishikari River, considering the extreme rainfall impacts and topographic vulnerability. The changing impacts were assessed using a large-ensemble rainfall dataset with a high resolution of 5 km (d4PDF) as input data for the rainfall–runoff–inundation (RRI) model. Additionally, the prediction of time differences between the peak discharge in the Chitose River and peak water levels at the confluence point intersecting the Ishikari River were improved compared to the previous study. Results indicate that due to climatic changes, extreme river floods are expected to increase by 21–24% in the Ishikari River basin (IRB), while flood inundation is expected to be severe and higher in the CRB, with increases of 24.5, 46.5, and 13.8% for the inundation area, inundation volume, and peak inundation depth, respectively. Flood inundation is likely to occur in the CRB downstream area with a frequency of 90–100%. Additionally, the inundation duration is expected to increase by 5–10 h here. Moreover, the short time difference (0–10 h) is predicted to increase significantly in the CRB. This study provides useful information for policymakers to mitigate flood damage in vulnerable areas.

scholarly journals The Abstruse Side of Type I Interferon Immunotherapy for COVID-19 Cases with Comorbidities

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-59
Author(s):  
Selvakumar Subbian
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Severity ◽  
Type I Interferon ◽  
Host Factors ◽  
Type I ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Inflammatory Drugs ◽  
Precautionary Measures ◽  
Inducible Genes

The Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), has claimed 1.2 million people globally since December 2019. Although the host factors underpinning COVID-19 pathology are not fully understood, type I interferon (IFN-I) response is considered crucial for SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis. Perturbations in IFN-I signaling and associated interferon-inducible genes (ISG) are among the primary disease severity indicators in COVID-19. Consequently, IFN-I therapy, either alone or in- combination with existing antiviral or anti-inflammatory drugs, is tested in many ongoing clinical trials to reduce COVID-19 mortality. Since signaling by the IFN-I family of molecules regulates host immune response to other infectious and non-infectious diseases, any imbalance in this family of cytokines would impact the clinical outcome of COVID-19, as well as other co-existing diseases. Therefore, it is imperative to evaluate the beneficial-versus-detrimental effects of IFN-I immunotherapy for COVID-19 patients with divergent disease severity and other co-existing conditions. This review article summarizes the role of IFN-I signaling in infectious and non-infectious diseases of humans. It highlights the precautionary measures to be considered before administering IFN-I to COVID-19 patients having other co-existing disorders. Finally, suggestions are proposed to improve IFN-I immunotherapy to COVID-19.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Flood Loss Models for Companies

2020 ◽  
Vol 56 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukas Schoppa ◽  
Tobias Sieg ◽  
Kristin Vogel ◽  
Gert Zöller ◽  
Heidi Kreibich
Keyword(s):  
Flood Loss ◽  
Loss Models

scholarly journals Evaluation of flood damage reduction throughout Japan from adaptation measures taken under a range of emissions mitigation scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 165 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Yamamoto ◽  
So Kazama ◽  
Yoshiya Touge ◽  
Hayata Yanagihara ◽  
Tsuyoshi Tada ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
First Century ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Damage Cost ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

AbstractThis study aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on flood damage and the effects of mitigation measures and combinations of multiple adaptation measures in reducing flood damage. The inundation depth was calculated using a two-dimensional unsteady flow model. The flood damage cost was estimated from the unit evaluation value set for each land use and prefectures and the calculated inundation depth distribution. To estimate the flood damage in the near future and the late twenty-first century, five global climate models were used. These models provided daily precipitation, and the change of the extreme precipitation was calculated. In addition to the assessment of the impacts of climate change, certain adaptation measures (land-use control, piloti building, and improvement of flood control level) were discussed, and their effects on flood damage cost reduction were evaluated. In the case of the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, the damage cost in the late twenty-first century will increase to 57% of that in the late twentieth century. However, if mitigation measures were to be undertaken according to RCP2.6 standards, the increase of the flood damage cost will stop, and the increase of the flood damage cost will be 28% of that in the late twentieth century. By implementing adaptation measures in combination rather than individually, it is possible to keep the damage cost in the future period even below that in the late twentieth century. By implementing both mitigation and adaptation measures, it is possible to reduce the flood damage cost in the late twenty-first century to 69% of that in the late twentieth century.

scholarly journals New insights into flood warning reception and emergency response by affected parties

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (12) ◽  
pp. 2075-2092 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heidi Kreibich ◽  
Meike Müller ◽  
Kai Schröter ◽  
Annegret H. Thieken
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Response ◽  
Regional Differences ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Emergency Plan ◽  
Emergency Response System ◽  
Flood Warning ◽  
Private Households ◽  
Flood Experience ◽  
Flood Warnings ◽  
Early Warnings

Abstract. Flood damage can be mitigated if the parties at risk are reached by flood warnings and if they know how to react appropriately. To gain more knowledge about warning reception and emergency response of private households and companies, surveys were undertaken after the August 2002 and the June 2013 floods in Germany. Despite pronounced regional differences, the results show a clear overall picture: in 2002, early warnings did not work well; e.g. many households (27 %) and companies (45 %) stated that they had not received any flood warnings. Additionally, the preparedness of private households and companies was low in 2002, mainly due to a lack of flood experience. After the 2002 flood, many initiatives were launched and investments undertaken to improve flood risk management, including early warnings and an emergency response in Germany. In 2013, only a small share of the affected households (5 %) and companies (3 %) were not reached by any warnings. Additionally, private households and companies were better prepared. For instance, the share of companies which have an emergency plan in place has increased from 10 % in 2002 to 34 % in 2013. However, there is still room for improvement, which needs to be triggered mainly by effective risk and emergency communication. The challenge is to continuously maintain and advance an integrated early warning and emergency response system even without the occurrence of extreme floods.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document