scholarly journals Flood loss reduction of private households due to building precautionary measures – lessons learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Kreibich ◽  
A. H. Thieken ◽  
Th. Petrow ◽  
M. Müller ◽  
B. Merz
Keyword(s):  
Financial Incentives ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Information Campaigns ◽  
Private Households ◽  
River Elbe ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Flood Loss ◽  
Prone Area ◽  
Precautionary Measures

Abstract. Building houses in inundation areas is always a risk, since absolute flood protection is impossible. Where settlements already exist, flood damage must be kept as small as possible. Suitable means are precautionary measures such as elevated building configuration or flood adapted use. However, data about the effects of such measures are rare, and consequently, the efficiency of different precautionary measures is unclear. To improve the knowledge about efficient precautionary measures, approximately 1200 private households, which were affected by the 2002 flood at the river Elbe and its tributaries, were interviewed about the flood damage of their buildings and contents as well as about their precautionary measures. The affected households had little flood experience, i.e. only 15% had experienced a flood before. 59% of the households stated that they did not know, that they live in a flood prone area. Thus, people were not well prepared, e.g. just 11% had used and furnished their house in a flood adapted way and only 6% had a flood adapted building structure. Building precautionary measures are mainly effective in areas with frequent small floods. But also during the extreme flood event in 2002 building measures reduced the flood loss. From the six different building precautionary measures under study, flood adapted use and adapted interior fitting were the most effective ones. They reduced the damage ratio for buildings by 46% and 53%, respectively. The damage ratio for contents was reduced by 48% due to flood adapted use and by 53% due to flood adapted interior fitting. The 2002 flood motivated a relatively large number of people to implement private precautionary measures, but still much more could be done. Hence, to further reduce flood losses, people's motivation to invest in precaution should be improved. More information campaigns and financial incentives should be issued to encourage precautionary measures.

scholarly journals Residential flood loss estimated from Bayesian multilevel models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guilherme S. Mohor ◽  
Annegret H. Thieken ◽  
Oliver Korup
Keyword(s):  
Multilevel Models ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Flood Loss ◽  
Building Characteristics ◽  
Loss Models ◽  
Precautionary Measures ◽  
Flood Experience ◽  
Natural Groups

Abstract. Model predictions of monetary losses from floods mainly use physical metrics like inundation depth or building characteristics but largely ignore indicators of preparedness. The role of such predictors may vary between regions and events, challenging the transferability of flood loss models. We use a flood loss database of 1812 German flood-affected households to explore how Bayesian multilevel models can estimate normalised flood damage stratified by event, region, or flood process type. Multilevel models acknowledge natural groups in the data and allow each group to learn from others. We obtain posterior estimates that differ between flood types, with credibly varying influences of water depth, contamination, duration, implementation of property-level precautionary measures, insurance, and previous flood experience; these influences overlap across most events or regions, however. We infer that the underlying damaging processes of distinct flood types deserve further attention. Each reported flood loss and affected region involved mixed flood types, likely explaining the uncertainty in the coefficients. Our results emphasise the need to consider flood types as an important step towards applying flood loss models elsewhere. We argue that failing to do so may complicate reliable loss estimation from empirical data.

scholarly journals Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy)

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 2057-2079 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Carisi ◽  
Kai Schröter ◽  
Alessio Domeneghetti ◽  
Heidi Kreibich ◽  
Attilio Castellarin
Keyword(s):  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Local Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Damage Models ◽  
Private Households ◽  
Flood Loss ◽  
Multivariable Models ◽  
Loss Models ◽  
Flood Damage Estimation

Abstract. Flood loss models are one important source of uncertainty in flood risk assessments. Many countries experience sparseness or absence of comprehensive high-quality flood loss data, which is often rooted in a lack of protocols and reference procedures for compiling loss datasets after flood events. Such data are an important reference for developing and validating flood loss models. We consider the Secchia River flood event of January 2014, when a sudden levee breach caused the inundation of nearly 52 km2 in northern Italy. After this event local authorities collected a comprehensive flood loss dataset of affected private households including building footprints and structures and damages to buildings and contents. The dataset was enriched with further information compiled by us, including economic building values, maximum water depths, velocities and flood durations for each building. By analyzing this dataset we tackle the problem of flood damage estimation in Emilia-Romagna (Italy) by identifying empirical uni- and multivariable loss models for residential buildings and contents. The accuracy of the proposed models is compared with that of several flood damage models reported in the literature, providing additional insights into the transferability of the models among different contexts. Our results show that (1) even simple univariable damage models based on local data are significantly more accurate than literature models derived for different contexts; (2) multivariable models that consider several explanatory variables outperform univariable models, which use only water depth. However, multivariable models can only be effectively developed and applied if sufficient and detailed information is available.

Augmenting a Sociohydrological Flood Risk Model for Companies with Process-oriented Loss Estimation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukas Schoppa ◽  
Marlies Barendrecht ◽  
Tobias Sieg ◽  
Nivedita Sairam ◽  
Heidi Kreibich
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
River Elbe ◽  
Validation Experiment ◽  
Flood Loss ◽  
Loss Data ◽  
Damage Process ◽  
Process Oriented

<p>Sociohydrological models are increasingly used in flood risk analysis to reveal and understand the temporal dynamics in coupled human-flood systems. While most sociohydrological flood risk models are stylized and describe hypothetical human-flood systems, very few recent case studies employ empirical data to investigate real world systems. The mathematical representation of flooding processes in these models is often simplistic and does not reflect the current state of knowledge. This is due to the intricacy of human-flood interactions and the lack of sufficient and suitable historical data.</p><p>We augment an existing, parsimonious sociohydrological flood risk model with a process-oriented flood loss model to integrate better understanding of flood damage processes into a sociohydrological modeling framework. Using Bayesian inference, we simulate the co-evolution of the flood risk system for companies located at the river Elbe in Dresden, Germany, over the course of 120 years. We compare model versions with differently complex process description on the basis of their loss prediction accuracy and uncertainty. This allows for exploring the added value of (i) resolving the inundation and damage process with more detail and (ii) accounting for heterogeneity across economic sectors. Apart from historical sociohydrological data, the proposed, augmented model versions are informed by object-level loss data, inundation maps, and spatial data, enhancing the pool of information available to the model. A leave-one-out cross-validation experiment shows that the augmented model versions increase the precision and reduce the uncertainty of company flood loss predictions in Dresden. In addition, the augmented models provide reliable loss predictions even in the absence of extensive historical flood loss data.</p><p>The demonstrated model augmentation concept is not limited to the flood damage process but could be transferred to other processes within the human-flood system. For instance, by incorporating a dedicated model from protection motivation theory that describes how flood awareness and preparedness change after the occurrence of a damaging flood event.</p>

scholarly journals Residential flood loss estimated from Bayesian multilevel models

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 1599-1614
Author(s):  
Guilherme S. Mohor ◽  
Annegret H. Thieken ◽  
Oliver Korup
Keyword(s):  
Water Depth ◽  
Multilevel Models ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Flood Loss ◽  
Loss Estimations ◽  
Loss Models ◽  
Precautionary Measures ◽  
Flood Experience ◽  
Natural Groups ◽  
Do So

Abstract. Models for the predictions of monetary losses from floods mainly blend data deemed to represent a single flood type and region. Moreover, these approaches largely ignore indicators of preparedness and how predictors may vary between regions and events, challenging the transferability of flood loss models. We use a flood loss database of 1812 German flood-affected households to explore how Bayesian multilevel models can estimate normalised flood damage stratified by event, region, or flood process type. Multilevel models acknowledge natural groups in the data and allow each group to learn from others. We obtain posterior estimates that differ between flood types, with credibly varying influences of water depth, contamination, duration, implementation of property-level precautionary measures, insurance, and previous flood experience; these influences overlap across most events or regions, however. We infer that the underlying damaging processes of distinct flood types deserve further attention. Each reported flood loss and affected region involved mixed flood types, likely explaining the uncertainty in the coefficients. Our results emphasise the need to consider flood types as an important step towards applying flood loss models elsewhere. We argue that failing to do so may unduly generalise the model and systematically bias loss estimations from empirical data.

scholarly journals Emergency Surgery during COVID-19: Lessons Learned

2020 ◽  
Vol 06 (03) ◽  
pp. e167-e170
Author(s):  
Hemanga K. Bhattacharjee ◽  
Shafneed Chaliyadan ◽  
Eshan Verma ◽  
Keerthi Kumaran ◽  
Priyank Bhargava ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stable Condition ◽  
Exploratory Laparotomy ◽  
Sigmoid Volvulus ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Suspected Case ◽  
Surgical Emergencies ◽  
Viral Particles ◽  
Hospital Patients ◽  
Perforation Peritonitis ◽  
Precautionary Measures

Abstract Introduction The ongoing coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted health services throughout the world. It has brought in several new challenges to deal with surgical emergencies. Herein, we report two suspected cases of COVID-19 that were operated during this “lockdown” period and highlight the protocols we followed and lessons we learned from this situation. Result Two patients from “red zones” for COVID-19 pandemic presented with acute abdomen, one a 64-year male, who presented with perforation peritonitis and another, a 57-year male with acute intestinal obstruction due to sigmoid volvulus. They also had associated COVID-19 symptoms. COVID-19 test could not be done at the time of their presentation to the hospital. Patients underwent emergency exploratory laparotomy assuming them to be positive for the infection. Surgical team was donned with full coverall personal protective equipment. Sudden and uncontrolled egression intraperitoneal free gas was avoided, Echelon flex 60 staplers were used to resect the volvulus without allowing the gas from the volvulus to escape; mesocolon was divided using vascular reload of the stapler, no electrosurgical devices were used to avoid the aerosolization of viral particles. Colostomy was done in both the patients. Both the patients turned out to be negative for COVID-19 subsequently and discharged from hospital in stable condition. Conclusion Surgeons need to adapt to safely execute emergency surgical procedures during this period of COVID-19 pandemic. Preparedness is of paramount importance. Full precautionary measures should be taken when dealing with any suspected case.

scholarly journals New insights into flood warning reception and emergency response by affected parties

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (12) ◽  
pp. 2075-2092 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heidi Kreibich ◽  
Meike Müller ◽  
Kai Schröter ◽  
Annegret H. Thieken
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Response ◽  
Regional Differences ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Emergency Plan ◽  
Emergency Response System ◽  
Flood Warning ◽  
Private Households ◽  
Flood Experience ◽  
Flood Warnings ◽  
Early Warnings

Abstract. Flood damage can be mitigated if the parties at risk are reached by flood warnings and if they know how to react appropriately. To gain more knowledge about warning reception and emergency response of private households and companies, surveys were undertaken after the August 2002 and the June 2013 floods in Germany. Despite pronounced regional differences, the results show a clear overall picture: in 2002, early warnings did not work well; e.g. many households (27 %) and companies (45 %) stated that they had not received any flood warnings. Additionally, the preparedness of private households and companies was low in 2002, mainly due to a lack of flood experience. After the 2002 flood, many initiatives were launched and investments undertaken to improve flood risk management, including early warnings and an emergency response in Germany. In 2013, only a small share of the affected households (5 %) and companies (3 %) were not reached by any warnings. Additionally, private households and companies were better prepared. For instance, the share of companies which have an emergency plan in place has increased from 10 % in 2002 to 34 % in 2013. However, there is still room for improvement, which needs to be triggered mainly by effective risk and emergency communication. The challenge is to continuously maintain and advance an integrated early warning and emergency response system even without the occurrence of extreme floods.

scholarly journals Potential impacts to freshwater ecosystems caused by flow regime alteration under changing climate conditions in Taiwan

2008 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 3005-3032 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.-P. Suen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flow Regime ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Aquatic Organisms ◽  
Freshwater Ecosystems ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Regime Changes ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Precautionary Measures

Abstract. Observed increases in the Earth's surface temperature bring with them associated changes in precipitation and atmospheric moisture that consequentially alter river flow regimes. This paper uses the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration approach to examine climate-induced flow regime changes that can potentially affect freshwater ecosystems. Analyses of the annual extreme water conditions at 23 gauging stations throughout Taiwan reveal large alterations in recent years; extreme flood and drought events were more frequent in the period after 1991 than from 1961–1990, and the frequency and duration of the flood and drought events also show high fluctuation. Climate change forecasts suggest that such flow regime alterations are going to continue into the foreseeable future. Aquatic organisms not only feel the effects of anthropogenic damage to river systems, but they also face on-going threats of thermal and flow regime alterations associated with climate change. This paper calls attention to the issue, so that water resources managers can take precautionary measures that reduce the cumulative effects from anthropogenic influence and changing climate conditions.

scholarly journals Ground Deformation in The Ciloto Landslides Area Revealed by Multi-Temporal InSAR

Geosciences ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noorlaila Hayati ◽  
Wolfgang Niemeier ◽  
Vera Sadarviana
Keyword(s):  
Ground Deformation ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Alos Palsar ◽  
Temporal Perspective ◽  
Prone Area ◽  
Multi Temporal ◽  
Single Compound ◽  
Torrential Rainfall ◽  
Precautionary Measures ◽  
Small Baseline

Landslides are one of the natural hazards that occur annually in Indonesia. A continuous geodetic observation in the landslide prone area is essential to support the precautionary measures. Because of its hilly topography, torrential rainfall and landslide history, the Ciloto district in Indonesia has been affected by ground deformation for an extended period of time. The purpose of our study is to detect significant movement and quantify the kinematics of its motion using the Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) time series analysis and multi-band SAR images. We utilized the small baseline SDFP technique for processing multi-temporal SAR data, comprising ERS1/2 (1998–1999), ALOS PALSAR (2007–2009), and Sentinel-1 (2014–2018). Based on the detected deformation signal in the Ciloto area, the displacement rates are categorized as very slow movements. Two active main landslide zones; the Puncak Pass and the Puncak Highway area, which show the trend of slow movement progressively increasing or descreasing, were detected. The integration of the velocity rate between InSAR results and ground observations (e.g., terrestrial and GPS) was conducted at the Puncak Highway area from the temporal perspective. Using the polynomial model, we estimated that the area had cumulatively displaced up to −42 cm for 25 years and the type of movements varied from single compound to multiple rotational and compound.

Lessons learned from the Big Floods, 1999–2013: The Bavarian Flood Action Programme 2020plus

Water Policy ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 17 (S1) ◽  
pp. 133-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Grambow ◽  
Erich Eichenseer ◽  
Gregor Overhoff ◽  
Tobias Hafner ◽  
Kerstin Staton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Structural Design ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Flood Protection ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Hazard Management ◽  
Protection Strategy ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Action Programme

Flood protection is an integral part of society's development. Meeting a growing vulnerability in the context of geopolitical and global changes, existing systems of natural hazard management must be reviewed on a regular basis. This is illustrated well by Bavaria's recent history. The lessons from the big floods in the period of 1999–2013 led to a fundamental modification of Bavaria's integral flood protection strategy. The concepts of flood risk management, resilience and dealing with extreme flood events which exceed standard structural design limits came to the fore. Management of flash floods and other floods, handling of potential retention areas, the inclusion of insurance, resettlement, and the burden of maintenance are further challenges which are briefly addressed in this paper.

scholarly journals A Local Initiative to Achieve Global Forest and Landscape Restoration Challenge—Lessons Learned from a Community-Based Forest Restoration Project in Biliran Province, Philippines

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 475 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nestor Gregorio ◽  
John Herbohn ◽  
Rogelio Tripoli ◽  
Arturo Pasa
Keyword(s):  
Financial Incentives ◽  
Forest Restoration ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Sustainable Livelihood ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Landscape Restoration ◽  
Restoration Project ◽  
The Tropics

Forest and landscape restoration in the tropics is often undertaken by groups of smallholders and communities whose livelihoods are primarily agricultural and forest-based. In the Philippines, the implementation of forest restoration programs involving people’s organizations showed mixed results. We present a case study of a pilot community-based forest restoration project that was undertaken in Biliran Province to understand the impediments, and pilot test interventions to improve restoration outcomes. The project was designed using systems thinking, employing smallholder-based best-practice, and applying the principles of a participatory approach. The results revealed that the initial participation of smallholders is mostly driven by short-term financial incentives. However, long-term commitment to managing the trees is attributed mainly to sustainable livelihood, land and tree rights, equitable sharing of benefits, strong leadership, effective governance and improved human and social capitals. The support of extension officers, use of high-quality seedlings, and participation of women are essential for community-based forest restoration success. Key lessons from our research could contribute to fulfilling the forest and landscape restoration commitments of developing countries in the tropics.

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